Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

cloaked7

Not sure if MC has played out yet. I think it hasn't. We have yet to see what happens when the set is retired. The set was just unavailable near Christmas last year, not EOL'd. So often we don't think a set will go up in price very much, or very quickly, when it retires. Only to have it shoot up when it's not on S&H or any other retailer. It is like a switch flips in people's heads when they can't get the set from LEGO and see that it's listed as No Longer Available.

I've only been selling LEGOS for about 3 years, but in those 3 years I've never seen such demand, and an increase in price, for a set that has not EOL'd yet. So often they don't shoot up until they are EOL'd, even if they are a bit hard to find. So, given that it would not surprise me if MC sold for $150 6 months after it EOL's. And, even if it doesn't go that high it will still sell well over retail. It pretty much already does that.

What if it EOL's before Christmas next year? And, LEGO continues to under supply? And, is still as popular, or more popular, as it was a few months ago?

gmpirate

^ It's more unusual now, but it used to be common for new or current sets to jump in price. MC is still a bigger exception percentage wise but has a lower RRP than most popular sets. I remember 7666 Hoth Rebel Base. The RRP was $50 but I was flipping them for $110 to $120 as fast as I could get them. At the time Lego was just getting started with their retail presence and I was fortunate to live close to their flagship store.

Now with Lego's growth in retail locations and the internet its a rare thing indeed. Lego also does a much better job of keeping ahead of the the market now.

Dwarves Mine 7036 was a good one back in the day too. X-Wing 6212 was a good flip here and there as they went OOS a lot. Republic Cruiser 7665 was a good flip early on. I'm sure I could think of a few more but those days are long gone. Way more variety of sets, vendors and supply exist now.

rocao

This discussion was created from comments split from: [US] Lego Minecraft in stock at Amazon.

whatsinaname

In case anyone is still looking for the Shuttle Expedition 10231, just sign up for an alert email here.

http://www.etoys.com/product/index.jsp?productId=11643504

I got a notification yesterday that the set was in stock. Received my shipping notification today.

cloaked7

It now shows Out of Stock.

prevere

White House, FallingWater and Space Needle - all out of stock til late Feb on [email protected]

I would guess...
A) These are probably 3 of the most popular from the first wave
B) That LEGO is thinning their inventory of them in preparation for EOL this year. This way they don't have to have a fire sale in November to dump the rest of the stock.

jasonord69a

^ Not sure if these will be the first of the Architecture range to disappear. 21016 Sungyemun has been at sold out status in UK for almost a month now.
It is also out of stock in the last 3 TLG stores I have visited.
I also ordered a Space Needle from S&H a couple of days ago and got a dispatch email today!

prevere

*Note I'm not suggesting they are or aren't good investments. They puzzle me a little bit, because they are overpriced to begin with; and they have a limited audience.

But of course, if they get scarce, like anything else, price goes up, even if demand is slow and steady.

Gavin83

Went to the Lego store in Bogota today. They've still got plenty of SE, MMV and IS. Sadly I don't have the luggage space for any of them. :(

madforLEGO

Technic Excavator is gone from TRU site.
and Now the Minecraft at [email protected] is showing as 'Temporarily out of stock'
Also the Post office is set to call to check for product availability if someone desperately wanted one (and cannot wait until next year)

madforLEGO

Gavin83 said:

Went to the Lego store in Bogota today. They've still got plenty of SE, MMV and IS. Sadly I don't have the luggage space for any of them. :(

Wow... Buy them and ship them out...lol

LegobrandonCP

Gavin83 said:

Went to the Lego store in Bogota today. They've still got plenty of SE, MMV and IS. Sadly I don't have the luggage space for any of them. :(

I'd love to grab an SE.

madforLEGO

10229 Winter Village Cottage is back as available on [email protected] US

Farmer_John

^ Interesting...They are offering it at full price online; however, I just picked a few up for $80 in their B&M store. They told me they had 150 boxes of them in the back on last Saturday. I also saw another person grab 2 of them right in front of me, so they could go fast. It's also possible they may mark them down 20% online within a few days based on what they did in the stores...

dougts

^ this makes perfect sense. They don't want these taking up stock space in stores for the next 10 months but they don't have any issue in the [email protected] warehouse at all. They won't be discounted online

It's a nice advantage for those who live near stores with inventory left. My store sold out before New Years

madforLEGO

Hmmm, may have to run up to my local LEGO store after all and try to get one if they are 20% off at the store, may need to call to see if they have them in stock first though :-)

Farmer_John

^I now have the ability to frequent two stores in different states. Both had a lot in stock last time I checked. In fact, when I purchased my sets in the Nashville store they were only setting about 6-8 out at a time. Once those were gone, they replenished them....kind of smart as it appeared that there weren't many left..."get them while they last." They brought my sets straight from the back and they didn't get "stickered" with the red clearance stickers. Nice clean boxes to pass on to the kids...

cloaked7

^ I wish I was closer to the Nashville store. It's a 4 hour drive, one way, for me. So, I've yet to visit it.

madforLEGO

The store by me did not have them unfortunately, so I was a bit disappointed, but they also apparently have them at amazon.com still (albeit for 99.99) so I got a couple from there with the help of a gift card.
Kinda wish I could have gotten them for 80, but I would have had to pay near 90 bucks after tax by me anyway plus gas to get there and back... getting them from Amazon was actually most cost effective actually.

Farmer_John

@cloaked7 - Nashville has a great store! There are a couple reasons I like it so much. First, the employees and manager are great. Second, it's twice the size of most of the Lego stores I've been in. I have to have my personal space if you know what I mean... You may want to try going there for the "May the 4th be With You" event in May. It might be worth your gas money if they have some decent sales this year.

The Frisco store is great too. I really like the manager (Gail) and employees, but the store is extremely busy and almost 1/2 the size of the Nashville store. I always seem to hit the Frisco store during the monthly build, so that probably doesn't help much.

But all the stores I've ever been to are great...Lego runs a very good business.

pumperx

Just grab two 10229 at store. $20 off each and two chima polybag is pretty good deal.

LegobrandonCP

Should I bite on a #10213 Shuttle Adventure for $129? The box has a huge tear on it. :-/

111ins

bite, build and sell for $200 in a year anyway!

LegobrandonCP

111ins said:

bite, build and sell for $200 in a year anyway!

No plans on selling, this is for my collection. Not sure if its worth it since this is the version with stability problem.

Anyone know if LEGO still offers the service packs?

111ins

on another note, I had picked up an opened 10179 off kijiji about 3 years ago for $350 and never touched it at all. The box end had been torn open but inside, everything was still sealed. Now just two weeks ago, I was looking at kijiji again and a guy has a new-still-in-packing-box 10179 that I ended up grabbing for $1900. Ended up selling my opened one for $2150, so with my upgrade, I have essentially got a mint Falcon for about $200 after all the fees.
Question is, keep for a few more years or list for say $2800 and run with the dough? Buy an acrylic case and list for $5000?
I have a copy of the set that I Bricklink'd back before the essential part prices went crazy, so I will eventually get around to building the set one day.
Thoughts?

FollowsClosely

LegobrandonCP said:

Should I bite on a #10213 Shuttle Adventure for $129? The box has a huge tear on it. :-/

I say pass, there are better set out there.

bp10030

Just bought 1 (the last) new #8265 Front Loader for 65$ and #4204 The Mine for 52$ from an austrian online store.

bp10030

sorry, cannot edit the above post anymore
should be in 'Post your recent great finds!'

littlepuppi

Talking monster fighters and taking an aside as to whether or not they are EOL'ing at the moment, the more I think about the castle, the more I think if you can get it for 55 ish or less its a great buy, people will always want to add in the spooky "dracula" style setting potentially to their collections and I just think its a really nice set. Have any others stashed a few #9468 sets away?

roxio

^I'm into double figures with my 9468 stash, was available for £40

historyman

^ on that note, if you have a 9468 for sale or trade, please let me know.

leego76

I traded my last £40 castle this weekend, i was going to keep it as a builder (traded the other 2 i had from the 3for2 at the time) but space is somewhat limited so I was happy to pass it on. Bottom line is that I really need a bigger flat!

These will do very well next season if they're not re-released (sneaking suspicion they may be), but at £40 a pop they've still got plenty of value in them either way. However if they are re-released then it would be difficult to see new sets added as they've covered all of the main monsters really so makes sense it is a one off series.

littlepuppi

Yes, agree with all the above...

I grabbed 8 when they were £40 last year, just thinking of topping up a bit more, several reasons, those above and the fact ive just shifted my last hogwarts so this was down as my "next" castle to stockpile....

Talking myself into at least 2 more I think :)

Billybrown

I managed 6 for £40 at the time. But I reckon they are still worth it for £55, but personally I wouldnt pay more than that.

littlepuppi

Well ive got one of those £5 vouchers.... So 2 of them will be £52.50, so would bring my average price up to £42.50...... I think Ill go for it :D

Billybrown

littlepuppi said:

Well ive got one of those £5 vouchers.... So 2 of them will be £52.50, so would bring my average price up to £42.50...... I think Ill go for it :D

Can you use 1 voucher per transaction so £50? Worth a go.

JT32

I'm not a fan of the Lord of the Rings sets but what about #9473. Like i said i'm not a fan but someone on HotUKDeals (Sorry I know) seemed to think this is going out and is £50 at Argos. is this a good deal, will it do well?

Legofanscott

JT32 said:

I'm not a fan of the Lord of the Rings sets but what about #9473. Like i said i'm not a fan but someone on HotUKDeals (Sorry I know) seemed to think this is going out and is £50 at Argos. is this a good deal, will it do well?

I would say it depends on how long lotr theme carries on for, if its here to stay i think they should do well, its a brand new theme so there is potential for the fanbase to grow so in a few years time new fans may want the original first wave of sets.

I doubt it will last as long as SW, but lets hope it does, id love to see a few more lotr exclusives in the next couple of years

CCC

JT32 said:

I'm not a fan of the Lord of the Rings sets but what about #9473. Like i said i'm not a fan but someone on HotUKDeals (Sorry I know) seemed to think this is going out and is £50 at Argos. is this a good deal, will it do well?

For now, it is probably the best price available in the UK. Historically, it is not very good. TRU had them for I think £46.99 (maybe £47.99), but they were also in a 3f2 at the time, so you could pick them up for about £32 a piece.

JT32

CCC said:

JT32 said:

I'm not a fan of the Lord of the Rings sets but what about #9473. Like i said i'm not a fan but someone on HotUKDeals (Sorry I know) seemed to think this is going out and is £50 at Argos. is this a good deal, will it do well?

For now, it is probably the best price available in the UK. Historically, it is not very good. TRU had them for I think £46.99 (maybe £47.99), but they were also in a 3f2 at the time, so you could pick them up for about £32 a piece.

Thanks for the info. Are they likely to stick around for long though or is it silly speculation that they are ending soon. I think they only came out in 2012 so I was surprised when someone said they could be ending.

Bumblepants

^I think the current wave of LotR sets will disappear from most stores when wave 2 comes along next summer if they haven't already. Probably will hang around online until the end of the year though. This is just speculation of course.

jockosjungle

THe HUKDer is just speculating I think to get the deal some extra heat. Just because there are a fews tock issues due to Christmas, I wouldn't think it going OOP so soon

rchadd

is Monster Fighters due to be discontinued soon?

madforLEGO

10193 is back on [email protected] US to call to check for product availability for what it is worth.

TheLoneTensor

I've been thinking recently about the Fire Brigade #10197 and I've been trying to figure it out, mostly with the below questions.

1) Is this a good resell set? I can't help but think it's stellar. It's a beautiful building (the brickwork alone is gorgeous), full of fun, very detailed interior, very good ppp, includes a vehicle, receives high (near-perfect) marks in most reviews and even had a hidden bat. What's not to love about this set?

2) Why has this been $119 at Amazon for as long as it has (a few weeks now)? Maybe people are tired of it, or do not see the value. Maybe there are a billion of these things in warehouses.

3) When will it EOL? I've been hearing it nearing, if not simply being, EOL for at least 6 months, yet here we are with brand new sets well below RRP at amazon, and apparently fully in stock most other places as well.

LegoFanTexas

This belongs in the Resale thread, to be fair... so if a mod would like to move it...

To answer the questions:

1. It will be, but not as good as it once could have been. It has been out twice as long as the prior modular to retire (Green Grocer) and it has been discounted many times, as low as $100 a copy at times.

2. They are indeed selling well at Amazon at that price, but I suspect many are being bought by part time resellers, which will put hundreds, if not thousands of copies of this set in reseller hands. Yes, I think at this point, thousands of this set are set aside for resale. Not in warehouses, but in bedroom closets.

3. Who the heck knows. It is more than a year over-due for EOL, it should have gone Christmas 2011, so now it appears it will be around for 4 years if it EOLs Chrismas 2013.

LegoFanTexas

madforLEGO said:

10193 is back on [email protected] US to call to check for product availability for what it is worth.

:) That set just won't die! :)

Legofanscott

LegoFanTexas said:

madforLEGO said:

10193 is back on [email protected] US to call to check for product availability for what it is worth.

:) That set just won't die! :)

You would think Lego would want to kill it off due to the price per part being outdated just like the death star

Goes to show that Lego could charge cheaper prices for sets if they wanted to if they are willing to keep these sets in production.

cheshirecat

I don't own any of the modulars, although that may soon change, I'm also not a reseller. So, either my opinion is worthless or seeing things through novice eyes and with no particular point to prove and as a potential buyer it may be interesting?

When I first saw the fire brigade in pictures, catalogues etc it looked amazing. Not necessarily as evoking as 10182 but very special, it was a WOW moment. Looking at it now a few years later and having seen a few in the flesh I'm much less impressed. Within the context of more recent releases both in the modular range and, perhaps more importantly, outside of the modular range such as the Haunted House, it just looks really really blocky. Especially compared to the Palace Cinema it's really 'square'. Of course, its not a corner, its a more traditional style etc etc. But to me it definitely looks like its lost some of its lustre without doing anything - just because its competition has raised the bar. It hasn't aged well - imo.

Standing in a Lego Shop with the option of buying Fire Brigade, Town Hall or the Palace Cinema? Well FB's got price on its side especially against the TH but if the RRP of Palace Cinema stays as advertised then its a simple decision and I'd walk away with the cinema (knowing that i might not be able to get FB 12 months from now might change that).

What has happened to it? Did TLG create a second run/extent its life because of such good sales or because of the bad bags? Presumably they have done something, it was talked about being EOL, out of stock online etc about two years ago. If they have, and continuing stock in store, online and at other retailers suggest they must have, then that must have a potentially massive impact on future sales, far more than resellers stocking up. Its been out for three and half years and no signs of it going. Potential buyers have had longer to pick one up, theres far more supply etc.

Do resellers have millions of them stashed away? I'm not the person to answer that but reading comments here over the last twelve months makes me believe its got to be one of, if not the most, stashed away 'big' set. Its at a price where people can afford to buy multiples and in some cases many many multiples. Its probably the first modular thats been around where the massive money to be made from CC has been understood, its been threatened to go EOL a number of times, its been discounted a fair amount.

I can't see people loosing money, or coming close to that, its a good set with a good value RRP, but for all the above I don't see it doing particularly well after EOL - whenever that is. And given how long some people must have been holding on to these, with their money tied up, its not going to be a particularly good investment.

Of course, all the above could be rubbish

TheLoneTensor

tensor said:

I've been thinking recently about the Fire Brigade #10197 and I've been trying to figure it out, mostly with the below questions.

1) Is this a good resell set? I can't help but think it's stellar. It's a beautiful building (the brickwork alone is gorgeous), full of fun, very detailed interior, very good ppp, includes a vehicle, receives high (near-perfect) marks in most reviews and even had a hidden bat. What's not to love about this set?

2) Why has this been $119 at Amazon for as long as it has (a few weeks now)? Maybe people are tired of it, or do not see the value. Maybe there are a billion of these things in warehouses.

3) When will it EOL? I've been hearing it nearing, if not simply being, EOL for at least 6 months, yet here we are with brand new sets well below RRP at amazon, and apparently fully in stock most other places as well.

I'm not quite sure why this was moved into this thread. Honestly, as neat as this thread has become, it's not very useful when anything to do with any resale is plopped into a thread with 10000 comments. I've seen this happen a few times with other posters regarding other specific sets.

Perhaps we need a new forum section on "retired/retiring sets" and allow specific discussions of specific sets/themes in there instead of merging everything into what has become a single, very-formidable-to-read thread for anyone new.