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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    Noboby loves an EOL party more than me. I wonder how many people have joined brickset just because of this "resellers" page? Would you really like to Identify the infidels and throw us out?
    FollowsCloselythehockeyboy
  • jockosjunglejockosjungle Member Posts: 701
    edited January 2013
    rocao said:

    Among the staff, I have been the most ardent defender of reselling discussions on this forum as I believe there is a strong coupling with collecting. The prevailing wisdom is that the resellers here are also hobbyists who share a love for LEGO.

    However, I'm reading an increasing number of statements that are commoditizing LEGO. They are calling sets "losers", "dogs", "widgets", and evaluating them not on their merits as a LEGO set, but simply by how much profit they represent in the aftermarket. They are celebrating when a set is discontinued -- an event that is a loss for most LEGO fans.

    The context should be and is considered, but I still feel some of the viewpoints are diverging from the ethos intended for the forum. If you truly are of the opinion that you are investing in widgets, I think there are other internet forums better suited for you.

    This.

    I'm fairly new here but it does seem that people are here to turn a profit from lego, rather than enjoying building it and being in a Lego community.

    Good example of Lego forum community, the recent Tesco deals. A few members, myself included, went and got sets for others who couldn't, sold them at cost. They made no money and gave up their time.

    The thought of selling Batcaves to members here for a profit or hoarding them for the future, never crossed my mind.

    Would members be so inclined in the future, knowing that some of those people may have put the sets into their lofts as an investment?
    Short_Round
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    rocao said:

    The prevailing wisdom is that the resellers here are also hobbyists who share a love for LEGO.

    This is true. I also sell computer parts and I do not post on any forums for that topic, I don't care about any of them, other than the money.

    LEGO, I have a passion for which is why I'm here.
    rocao said:

    However, I'm reading an increasing number of statements that are commoditizing LEGO. They are calling sets "losers", "dogs", "widgets", and evaluating them not on their merits as a LEGO set, but simply by how much profit they represent in the aftermarket. They are celebrating when a set is discontinued -- an event that is a loss for most LEGO fans.

    I don't see EOL as a loss for LEGO fans, it is a rebirth, a chance to have something new.

    MMV needed to go, if LEGO keeps making it, then something new can't come out. The new Castle line coming this summer is a perfect example. Everyone has had plenty of chance to buy MMV, time for something new.

    As for the terms you use, the first two are fair in collecting, some items are just dogs, regardless of the resale aspect. I am of the opinion that Hero Factory isn't really "LEGO", and that is completely a fan's opinion since I've never bought or sold a single Hero Factory set.
    rocao said:

    The context should be and is considered, but I still feel some of the viewpoints are diverging from the ethos intended for the forum. If you truly are of the opinion that you are investing in widgets, I think there are other internet forums better suited for you.

    Please do keep the context in mind. I think UCS Imperial Shuttle is one of the best sets LEGO has produced, ever. It is large, well defined, displays VERY well both in the landed and flying configuration. It is a well known ship that draws gasps when people come over.

    So it is a "winner" in that respect. I'm also hoping it becomes a "winner" in the reseller aspect since I've got a few of them stashed away.

    My 2.3 cents. :)
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    LFT said - I think UCS Imperial Shuttle is one of the best sets LEGO has produced, ever. It is large, well defined, displays VERY well both in the landed and flying configuration. It is a well known ship that draws gasps when people come over.

    Yup, that's why I think the UCS IS will eventually outperform the MMV set.

    Concerning racao's comments. They were well said and I understand, but I think a person must take the comments in this thread within the context, and title, of the thread. I collect and build LEGO's as well as resell them. So, a comment I make in this thread probably won't even come to mind in another thread. Say the forum was about art and paintings. In a thread about the collectibility and investment in art (some people do invest in art) you would find completely different comments in a thread that discussed which piece of art a person prefers or collects. Maybe just the other side of the same coin?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^How much longer can TLG keep producing sets like MMV and other "value" sets without eventually losing money? When a set goes EOL, it is not like we are all elated because it is gone. We are happy because we know new Lego sets are eventually going to replace the EOL'd sets. The "countdown for IS EOL" was interesting and to me a breath of fresh air. For a few hours we weren't bickering and complaining. Everyone was joining in watching the "countdown". As I said before, I only resell to fund my hobby.
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 2,939
    ^ it would be preferable if the IS was replaced by a UCS AT-AT rather than a 1000 piece X Wing.
    FollowsClosely
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,667
    Still finding it a bit difficult for people to say that MMV will go down when the next castle line comes out.
    Unless the new castle line has a set like MMV I would hazard to say that MMV will go UP not down due to demand for a little village/market outside of a castle.
    Nevermind you can use it as part of a Renfair or something for your town layout...
    Plus a lot of activity is going on in that MMV set..
    I think it will do fairly well especially if another castle line comes out (again unless they make an exact duplicate to this set).
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 815
    @jockosjungle

    I think you will find that more than a few people went and got sets for others, but lots will have done it silently.

    Pitfall69y2josh
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^I do this for my brother n law and nephew all the time. I bought extra Star Wars Advent calenders and gave one to my nephew and the same when they were blowing out the Black Pearl. Although, I just asked for what I paid for that. Those were just recently, but I do this all the time even for some friends.
  • samiam391samiam391 A Log Cabin in KY, United StatesMember Posts: 4,328
    "I'm fairly new here but it does seem that people are here to turn a profit from lego, rather than enjoying building it and being in a Lego community."

    @jokosjungle- I think that is a slightly drastic spin of rocao's words (words that I agree with).

    This is a predictions/discontinuing thread, and people are here to turn a profit. That's plain and simple.

    However, dig a little deeper, and you will find that we all enjoy building and being in a LEGO community. One of the reasons that this thread and others thrive is because everyone here enjoys this community. We also all share a passionate love for LEGO.

    I do reselling, however the only reason I do it is to fund my hobby. Everything/most that I have right now is currently "free" because I've been able to fund it through small time resale of LEGO.

    I like to partake in these disccusions, and read them. And when I learn a set is retiring. and that I might be making money, I get excited! Because through that, I'll be able to fund my hobby even more! :-)

  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    Managed to get 2 10212's today for 238 euros, so roughly around £190, these seem to be currently matching the Lego rrp here in the UK on ebay, they used to only make around £180-200 brand new.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    I find it very hard to believe that there are people that frequent this forum that don't enjoy Lego and are just selling Lego to turn a profit.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^This goes for just about anything. Baseball Cards, Hot Wheels, Action Figures...even people that own gun shops. These people are passionate about their hobby and decided that they can make money and enjoy their hobby at the same time.
  • kim43235kim43235 Member Posts: 165
    edited January 2013
    As of this posting, you can order IS at amazon with following message.

    "Back-ordered. Due in stock January 22"

    Looks like IS is not done yet.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    Pitfall69 said:

    I find it very hard to believe that there are people that frequent this forum that don't enjoy Lego and are just selling Lego to turn a profit.

    There may be some, but I think you're likely mostly right. There are other forums out there that I think those people frequent. And I find those forums pretty much terrible -- both the overall posts and users.
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    kim43235 said:

    As of this posting, you can order IS at amazon with following message.

    "Back-ordered. Due in stock January 22"

    Looks like IS is not done yet.

    Isnt that just an automatic thing when sets go out of stock? I suppose its possible they have got a crate of them laying around somewhere
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    rocao said:

    However, I'm reading an increasing number of statements that are commoditizing LEGO. They are calling sets "losers", "dogs", "widgets", and evaluating them not on their merits as a LEGO set, but simply by how much profit they represent in the aftermarket. They are celebrating when a set is discontinued -- an event that is a loss for most LEGO fans.

    I think when this kind of thing happens it's a celebration of retirement pf the set, as opposed to cheering for their demise. I'm looking at the IS and MMV as great performers that were in the All-Star game annually and are now being moved into the hall of fame. It's not like you saw this kind of excitement when #7066 went away (though that is an underrated set imho).

    I also think that if you analyze carefully, calling a set a "loser" "dog" etc. corresponds to the aftermarket value AND the general value of the set as a "good Lego set." There are few sets that are "bad Lego sets" that do well on the aftermarket.
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    edited January 2013
    rocao said:

    The context should be and is considered, but I still feel some of the viewpoints are diverging from the ethos intended for the forum. If you truly are of the opinion that you are investing in widgets, I think there are other internet forums better suited for you.

    Where do you intend to draw the line? I am a life-long Lego fan, but also run a reselling business that treats certain sets as a pure commodity...if you read my posts here, they almost always deal with some aspect of selling or reselling because I rarely feel that there is any benefit to my posting something along the lines of "hey, I built a Galaxy Explorer today and it still looks cool after all this time." IMHO, you're not going to put the genie back in the bottle on this one unless you ban all discussion of reselling.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098

    I don't see EOL as a loss for LEGO fans, it is a rebirth, a chance to have something new.

    MMV needed to go, if LEGO keeps making it, then something new can't come out. The new Castle line coming this summer is a perfect example. Everyone has had plenty of chance to buy MMV, time for something new.

    That would be fine if Lego actually had something decent to replace these sets with. Looking at the upcoming 2013 lineup, I don't see any new Creator, Castle or Star Wars sets that really stand out. I guess the Palace Cinema looks alright, but if it's priced at $180, I won't be buying.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,896
    edited January 2013
    Love the EOL countdowns - had a lot of fun with the IS.

    Hate the week-after EOL expectations. Those people are showing their true colors.

    Live to build. And any reselling is gravy.

  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002

    kim43235 said:

    As of this posting, you can order IS at amazon with following message.

    "Back-ordered. Due in stock January 22"

    Looks like IS is not done yet.

    Isnt that just an automatic thing when sets go out of stock? I suppose its possible they have got a crate of them laying around somewhere
    More likely it's due to banged up boxes being returned, or people realizing they couldn't double their money immediately.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    prevere said:

    Love the EOL countdowns - had a lot of fun with the IS.
    Hate the week-after EOL expectations. Those people are showing their true colors.

    Live to build. And any reselling is gravy.

    Was a busy work day, and missed the whole countdown, but I enjoyed the read :)

    I guess if we could point to some people here that are only into Lego for the money there would be a point to be made but . . .
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    mathew said:

    That would be fine if Lego actually had something decent to replace these sets with. Looking at the upcoming 2013 lineup, I don't see any new Creator, Castle or Star Wars sets that really stand out. I guess the Palace Cinema looks alright, but if it's priced at $180, I won't be buying.

    I can understand that, the new Creator houses seem to get smaller and less interesting year after year.

    So I get that. But MMV couldn't continue for $99 forever. Would you have prefered it stay around, but be repriced to $149?

    If so, fair enough, that is another point to be concerned, keeping older sets but repricing them for modern times. Of course, MMV at $99 is a deal, at $149, less so. :)

    If Palace Cinema is $149, great! Just don't expect it, that's all.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    kim43235 said:

    As of this posting, you can order IS at amazon with following message.

    "Back-ordered. Due in stock January 22"

    Looks like IS is not done yet.

    Where do you see this?
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 815
    ^ It did say it on the item page 30 minutes ago but is no longer there

  • kim43235kim43235 Member Posts: 165
    y2josh said:

    kim43235 said:

    As of this posting, you can order IS at amazon with following message.

    "Back-ordered. Due in stock January 22"

    Looks like IS is not done yet.

    Isnt that just an automatic thing when sets go out of stock? I suppose its possible they have got a crate of them laying around somewhere
    More likely it's due to banged up boxes being returned, or people realizing they couldn't double their money immediately.
    We would see banged up box or returned items at warehouse deals, not in the new item page.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,896
    gmpirate said:

    prevere said:

    Love the EOL countdowns - had a lot of fun with the IS.
    Hate the week-after EOL expectations. Those people are showing their true colors.

    Live to build. And any reselling is gravy.

    Was a busy work day, and missed the whole countdown, but I enjoyed the read :)

    I guess if we could point to some people here that are only into Lego for the money there would be a point to be made but . . .
    I guess it comes down to how much time (not money) do you put into reselling vs. building/playing LEGO with your kids, sharing with friends, etc.
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    I am always curious when someone opens up a thread about the secondary market and then is not happy when there are judgmental statements regarding certain sets and their value on the secondary market. A secondary market connotes a perceived value beyond the original retail value, otherwise there wouldn't be a secondary market. It's kind of like my grandmother (God rest her soul) who would turn on Cinemax after 9pm and then complain about the dirty movies.....I would always ask, "grandma, what channel is Cinemax?" She would answer, "512". I would then ask her why she tuned into that channel if she found it offensive.

    The attractive nature of some sets is what drives the secondary market. That makes them a dog or a winner in my book. We speak of them in those terms out of a love of the hobby and a desire to make a bit of cash on the secondary market to keep our respectve spouses from divorcing us for burning up all of our disposable income on ABS plastic bricks!
    dougts
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    kim43235 said:


    y2josh said:

    kim43235 said:

    As of this posting, you can order IS at amazon with following message.

    "Back-ordered. Due in stock January 22"

    Looks like IS is not done yet.

    Isnt that just an automatic thing when sets go out of stock? I suppose its possible they have got a crate of them laying around somewhere
    More likely it's due to banged up boxes being returned, or people realizing they couldn't double their money immediately.
    We would see banged up box or returned items at warehouse deals, not in the new item page.
    I bought a ninjago Rattlecopter the other day that appeared like this. There was just one available, and it actually shipped out almost immediately, even though it said it would take a week. I think it's a glitch or just some found lost inventory or something...
  • mressinmressin Lego City... erm LondonMember Posts: 843
    ^ I can attest to that. There is one reason why my better half tolerates me spending my time with Lego (includes frequenting this forum), and that's that it also brings in money.

    With all resellers gone, the forum would be.much emptier indeed, and information about deals much scarcer.

    What is the harm in reselling/winner/dog/loser discussions?
  • Chang405Chang405 Member Posts: 81
    I am a fan of Lego but it doesn't mean I am a fan of every single product made by Lego. I cherish castle, LoTR, city, and modular buildings. Every other theme for me is just meh. I don't do much reselling but if I am addressing themes I don't cherish dearly, I don't see why I have to be reverent towards them. Whats wrong with using "losers", "dogs", "widgets" to describe Lego products that you don't love. Products that are used to generate cash to buy products that you do love.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    This is a tangent, and I willingly admit it, but this thread mentions Amazon a lot so I'll share. And, if this needs to be in a different thread that's OK, it may be moved.

    Did anyone see last night's episode on 60 Minutes last night? The one that dealt with robot automation? I thought of LEGO and wondered if they would be on it. Instead they gave a look at a company similar to Amazon that ships clothing for various companies. The packers stay in their area and robots go and get shelving sections and bring a whole section to the packer, then after the packer gets the item they need the robot takes the shelving unit back to it's 'home'. The robot would drive under the shelving unit and raise it up to carry it. It was awesome, and made me think of Amazon. I don't think Amazon is that automated. I think they have human runners, but I'm thinking one day robots will do the running. If I recall correctly, the company spokesperson said that it would take 1.5 people to do what each robot does. A huge cost savings. It was something to see those robots moving all over the warehouse and not even bumping into each other.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    mressin said:

    With all resellers gone, the forum would be.much emptier indeed, and information about deals much scarcer.

    Indeed.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Regarding Amazon and robots, Amazon's biggest challenge is that it carries, well, everything and the kitchen sink...

    And it carries those as well:
    http://www.amazon.com/Kraus-KBU22-32-Inch-Undermount-Stainless/dp/B0032BWTSU/

    How do you build a robot system that can handle more than 100 million unique items?

    Smaller companies like Newegg that only have to handle a few thousand products, actually do use robots heavily. I saw a video once on the Newegg warehouse, they use human pickers for the high value cages, the CPUs, memory, etc, but for the bulk and common items, they have robots and automated picking systems.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,896
    At some point, it'll all be done by machines. I just hope they don't get too smart.



    y2josh
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    I, for one, welcome our new robot overlords...
    hoyatablesPenkid11YodaliciousBumblepants
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    edited January 2013
    ^^^ you can't talk about the moderators like that, oh sorry, LFT maybe you can.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    edited January 2013
    cloaked7 said:

    This is a tangent, and I willingly admit it, but this thread mentions Amazon a lot so I'll share. And, if this needs to be in a different thread that's OK, it may be moved.

    Did anyone see last night's episode on 60 Minutes last night? The one that dealt with robot automation? I thought of LEGO and wondered if they would be on it. Instead they gave a look at a company similar to Amazon that ships clothing for various companies. The packers stay in their area and robots go and get shelving sections and bring a whole section to the packer, then after the packer gets the item they need the robot takes the shelving unit back to it's 'home'. The robot would drive under the shelving unit and raise it up to carry it. It was awesome, and made me think of Amazon. I don't think Amazon is that automated. I think they have human runners, but I'm thinking one day robots will do the running. If I recall correctly, the company spokesperson said that it would take 1.5 people to do what each robot does. A huge cost savings. It was something to see those robots moving all over the warehouse and not even bumping into each other.

    Those robots you saw are made by Kiva Systems, which Amazon bought last year, so I think that's all you need to know...

    And yes, Amazon uses them in their warehouses.
  • Bosstone100Bosstone100 USAMember Posts: 1,418
    @jamesjt ... you've been here all of what? five minutes? so why are you stirring the pot?
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ Thanks. Very interesting. A privately held company, purchased for $775 million. That's a lot of coin! Now owned by Amazon.

    http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/71725/amazon-to-acquire-kiva-systems
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    cloaked7 said:

    ^ Thanks. Very interesting. A privately held company, purchased for $775 million. That's a lot of coin! Now owned by Amazon.

    http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/71725/amazon-to-acquire-kiva-systems

    LOL, basically they were looking into a new warehouse automation solution and as Amazon are so big it was cheaper to buy the company instead of the product.

    That's how I picture it going down at least
  • mrtonytjmrtonytj Guest Posts: 214
    edited January 2013
    samiam391 said:

    I hate to see someone purchase a set to build, but than not do it because of the piece count! It is LEGO after all, we buy to build. The building process is the reward. The finished project is merely just a bonus!

    I completely agree. Once i finish a build i get upset because it's all over. But then i see it displayed on a shelf and i think "well that was all worth it"

    And also, My first 1000+ piece set that was un-numbered was the shuttle ex. I opened it and almost cried as i didn't know lego could come in un-numbered bags!! (only being recently out of my DA's and only building recent SW sets until then) but it was actually ok and the end result again was well worth it, so NEVER let that sway you.. All lego building is fun! In the long run :-)
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    edited January 2013
    If you think building one neatly packaged Lego set without numbered bags is hard, try taking a 70 lb tub of loose bulk and building the sets out of it. Not even knowing if you have all the pieces or not(which I have never received a tub of bulk that has every piece, and I have been through many). It's the most fun when you don't even have instructions to the lot and have to figure out what sets are in there. Many a hours I've spent....scratch that.....many a days I've spent.
    FollowsCloselyLegoFanTexasPitfall69wagnerml2The_Mack
  • lovelegolovelego Member Posts: 16
    Not sure if it's been asked but was wondering if Ninjago's fire temple will do well later. It has a lovely temple facade and some hard to get minifies like sensei wu and Nya. Saw some at rrp and was wondering if I should get one.
  • mrtonytjmrtonytj Guest Posts: 214
    edited January 2013
    Oh don't worry i have done that too! My last comment was in relation to when i had just come out of my DA's about 2 years ago.. Since then i have had quite a few days/weeks etc where quite literally my whole 5 bedroom house was covered in lego from bulk lots!
  • thecleatorthecleator Member Posts: 70
    Im sure I am missing something since it is not being discussed but is DA officially gone? My apologies if this was covered in a previous post
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    ^Yes, buy as many Death Stars as you can.
    Pitfall69UKtsumiPenkid11
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    FatMatt said:

    ^Yes, buy as many Death Stars as you can.

    How is this not getting old? I laugh every time.

    wagnerml2
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    FatMatt said:

    If you think building one neatly packaged Lego set without numbered bags is hard, try taking a 70 lb tub of loose bulk and building the sets out of it. Not even knowing if you have all the pieces or not(which I have never received a tub of bulk that has every piece, and I have been through many). It's the most fun when you don't even have instructions to the lot and have to figure out what sets are in there. Many a hours I've spent....scratch that.....many a days I've spent.

    I have about 12-15 tubs full that need to be sorted through. Right now they are mostly sorted by color.

    How is this not fun?

  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    ^I hope you pay her a fair wage.
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