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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • bri4jennbri4jenn United StatesMember Posts: 86
    edited January 2013
    @CCC said "The problem I have with similar re-releases is that there is a slot gone for something new. If there are only a finite number of sets released every year, and one of them I already have from an earlier release, then it might put me off buying."



    LEGO does not have a finite number of spots each year. If LEGO chooses to add another set, they do so. In fact LEGO has produced more sets than the previous year since 2008. If LEGO wants to make a re-release then think of it as an additional set, not taking away from something new.
    YEAR SETS
    2008 420
    2009 459
    2010 500
    2011 591
    2012 699
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    ^This logic is what remains to be seen, though, and my dissatisfaction at a UCS X-Wing re-hash is going to hinge squarely on whether or not it takes up the spot of this year's UCS ship, or if it's in addition to something more exciting.

    The problem with re-hashes, for me, is not a concern at all for the System sets, but when you start re-hashing the 'big kid' sets, you are taking away from the enjoyment of the hobby for some (myself included to a point), as, even if it was thirteen years ago, you're trying to sell me something I more-or-less already have. This is especially true of the X-Wing, which needed to be redone about as much as the UCS B-Wing needs to be redone. I mentioned it earlier, perhaps even in another thread, but if you MUST re-hash one of the big models, it really ought to be a model that NEEDS to be redone because of how unbelievably bad it looked to begin with.

    I'm looking at you, UCS Snowspeeder.
    FollowsClosely
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    edited January 2013
    y2josh said:

    The problem with re-hashes, for me, is not a concern at all for the System sets, but when you start re-hashing the 'big kid' sets, you are taking away from the enjoyment of the hobby for some

    Well said. There are basically about 10 adult-targeted sets per year. yes, many of us *also* buy system sets aimed towards children, but that's beside the point. We get those 10. If 1 of them is a re-hash of a previous SW UCS, Modular, or model, then we basically lost 10% of our allotment on something many of us might already have. Heck, this happened in 2012 with the Sopwith. Now it so happens that this version was leaps and bounds above the previous, and likely many of us didn't have it (13 years is a long time), but if this year we get the X Wing as one of the two UCS models, I can see where people might not be happy. If we get a CC or GG re-hash at some point instead of a new modular, I wouldn't be happy. As much as I would love a TM or ET, part of me would be upset that we weren't getting something new instead.
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,288
    edited January 2013
    bri4jenn said:

    LEGO does not have a finite number of spots each year. If LEGO chooses to add another set, they do so. In fact LEGO has produced more sets than the previous year since 2008. If LEGO wants to make a re-release then think of it as an additional set, not taking away from something new.
    YEAR SETS
    2008 420
    2009 459
    2010 500
    2011 591
    2012 699

    Finite does not mean a fixed number from year to year. As TLG continues to enjoy year to year growth, it stands to reason that they would also grow the size of their annual product offerings. But an increasing number doesn't mean that it's limitless or that it's trivial to introduce additional sets.

    While to my knowledge it hasn't been publicly corroborated, the information about pre-determined finite product slots has been repeated many times by people who are much more knowledgeable than me about TLG's design and production constraints. And it's common sense that that's the case, isn't it? They have a finite number of designers, working within a finite budget, designing sets that will be sourced from a finite amount of materials to be made at factories with a finite amount of production capacity.

    But I do agree with you that it's probably possible for them to find a way to squeeze in some extra products. But the reason would have to be compelling, and everything we've heard from TLG about the general lack of enthusiasm for the Legends line tells us that re-releases are not that compelling reason. Instead, they would probably opt for an additional new product.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ This...

    It is true that a manufacturer the size of LEGO can "squeeze" something into the production schedule, it always comes at the cost of something else.

    Look at how out of stock so much LEGO has been the past few months. I don't think this is retailers just ordering less, I think LEGO is producing at capacity and they have no further room to produce a single set within existing production facilities.

    For example, what took LEGO so long to make more Minecraft? It is a small, basic set, LEGO has made a big deal that they can shift production in 10 days to other sets that are in demand. I think the issue is that almost everything they made is in demand, and they want to fulfill their big customer orders before anything else.

    So while sets like #6166 aren't sexy, they are LEGO's bread and butter. BTW, that set has been at #1 on Amazon's LEGO top seller list for... well, ever... Actually it has been in the Top 100 toy list for 1,682 straight days. That isn't LEGO, that is all toys on Amazon. That is nearly 5 years that it has maintained Top 100 status. Very few toys do that.
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 2,939
    As per LFT's comments - manufacturing large scale requires a lot of planning. Sometimes there just isn't the capacity, or you'd have to impose shifts for 24/7 work which involves paying workers a shift premium (or larger on if they work some shifts already), increased energy bills with the plant staying productive for longer in the day etc. If the numbers aren't right for that to happen (higher operating costs make extra capacity prohibitive) then it won't. Lego is huge right now (despite the economic climate), bigger than i've ever known it, it's the kind of toy almost every male in the developed world has dabbled in at some point. It must be tough for them to juggle demand and output right now.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    I would not be surprised if LEGO is already running the factory 24/7. For each production line of molding machines, only one human worker is required, the whole place is now very high-tech, the cost to run 24/7 would be minor compared to the cost to double the size of the plant to avoid running overnight.

    Paying night-shift workers extra pay to be there at 3pm is a lot cheaper than building another plant. :)

    From what my sources tell me, supply is very constrained across all product lines. If you're a LEGO dealer, you can order anything you want, but what TLG actually ships you is another matter. Allocation is running very tight and many big dealers are having trouble staying stocked.

    Amazon just restocked most of the current production sets, they have been out for a few weeks on a lot of stuff. The new Ninjago sets are finally back in stock, and one already went back out of stock, the Temple of Light.

    They sell it as fast as TLG can make it. :)
  • mrtonytjmrtonytj Guest Posts: 214
    I just went to buy an IS off TRU and it is gone!! Went to [email protected] and it is gone from there too!!! AAARRRRRGGGHHHH!! I get paid monthly and had to wait til today and it's gone!! ;'-(
  • ZonZon Member Posts: 214
    edited January 2013
    Imperial Shuttle is still on Amazon for 259.99 with free shipping. (US)
  • JT32JT32 BasingstokeMember Posts: 124
    It's still available at amazon, what's the problem with that?
  • mrtonytjmrtonytj Guest Posts: 214
    I am in Australia!!! And amazon.com doesn't send to Aus.
  • JT32JT32 BasingstokeMember Posts: 124
    ah, I didn't know that. I know it's been on the way out for a while, I've bought a few in the last couple of months.
  • mountebankmountebank Member Posts: 1,237
    edited January 2013
    Ahhh, so the 125 or so remaining available from Amazon.com should be disappearing this weekend.
  • mrtonytjmrtonytj Guest Posts: 214
    Yeah, i have known it's been going, but i could only get one today! owel.. Now time to find some nice person on here to send me one :-)
  • mrtonytjmrtonytj Guest Posts: 214
    Question, does amazon take paypal?
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    ^Not directly, but you can use a PayPal debit card.
  • mrtonytjmrtonytj Guest Posts: 214
    What is that? And how do i get one! And can i get one by tomorrow?? As i only have paypal credits until tuesday..
  • legoprodslegoprods SpainMember Posts: 441
    @mrtonytj

    Please stop saying you can't and try it for once! You've been saying that for more than a week without even trying!

    Amazon.com will ship the IS to Australia, for 280$ and no tax to be collected.
  • mrtonytjmrtonytj Guest Posts: 214
    Ok, yes i just tried and they do. Thankyou. I have said it a total of 2 times. Every other set i have tried to get sent has not been able to, and until now no one has told me otherwise. No need to get all angry about it.. Geeze.
  • mrtonytjmrtonytj Guest Posts: 214
    And i did try before and realized they did.. Which is why i asked if they took paypal.
  • GodspeedGodspeed Member Posts: 14
    mrtonytj said:

    until now no one has told me otherwise. No need to get all angry about it.. Geeze.

    Sorry but I'm with legoprods, you have a separate thread (which effectively makes this one pointless) in the shopping elsewhere section, where three different people have kindly told you that the IS can be shipped to AUS.
    legoprods
  • mrtonytjmrtonytj Guest Posts: 214
    The other thread actually asked where would be the cheapest place to buy one, this thread was just letting everyone know that as of today they are no longer available at TRU and [email protected]?
  • pumperxpumperx Member Posts: 106
    It's Friday, chill everyone:)
    andheLegoFanTexas
  • GodspeedGodspeed Member Posts: 14
    mrtonytj said:

    The other thread actually asked where would be the cheapest place to buy one, this thread was just letting everyone know that as of today they are no longer available at TRU and [email protected]?

    The other thread provided you with information on where to buy it cheapest, and you blatantly ignored the advice you received and started another thread complaining you can't buy it. Everyone's happy to help, but what's the point when you ignore the help you're asking for? I'm not here to start a fight, you know where to get it now, so purchase it and enjoy.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    I'm sure Lego has this figured out better than any of us. I do think that with a set like Minecraft there is an over inflated demand because of the Christmas rush. Minecraft post-Christmas hasn't shown nearly as much demand as I predicted. Therefore it's not really in Lego's best interest to devote extra resources for an otherwise niche set.

    I think it's amazing that Lego does so well with their part allocation between all of the sets they manufacture. I'm currently building the Imperial Shuttle and it's the biggest set I've built so far. While I think Lego, especially the Star Wars theme are over priced, you don't really see the value until you dump all the pieces out and start building.
  • mrtonytjmrtonytj Guest Posts: 214
    I will.As i just said, I did not start this thread to complain? I started it to let everyone know that they were no longer available at those places! People have been saying for weeks that this set was discontinuing and i was just telling people today was the day it had! I thought that's what this site was for? To provide information to other collectors? Don't worry, i won't bother next time if this is how you are going to act.
  • mrtonytjmrtonytj Guest Posts: 214
    Mod's please close this topic as people seem to be getting annoyed about it.
    Sorry.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,896
    If you haven't, Youtube the Lego MegaFactories episode. Easy to find, 3 parts, 45 minutes. It starts with set design and finishes with trucks leaving the factory in Denmark. It will give you a good idea of their process. The factories are indeed booked 24/7.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,579
    edited January 2013
    bri4jenn said:



    LEGO does not have a finite number of spots each year. If LEGO chooses to add another set, they do so. In fact LEGO has produced more sets than the previous year since 2008. If LEGO wants to make a re-release then think of it as an additional set, not taking away from something new.
    YEAR SETS
    2008 420
    2009 459
    2010 500
    2011 591
    2012 699

    As others have said, it may not be a fixed number, but it is finite.

    They could easily chose to never retire any set. That is, if a set continues to sell then they continue making and supplying it. The problem is advertising (finite space in catalogues), finite shelf space in stores, taking away customers from their other lines. As well as manufacturing too many different sets at once. They could probably re-release all SW ships and they'd sell well. But how many more would they sell in total compared to a limited number? Probably not enough to justify the extra production costs. Otherwise they'd do it.

  • littlepuppilittlepuppi Member Posts: 181
    Well IS stock seems to be plummeting again so finished the debate in my head and taken the plunge on 2 more to make it my biggest single set holding! Time will tell if its the right decision....
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,734
    bri4jenn said:


    In fact LEGO has produced more sets than the previous year since 2008.
    YEAR SETS
    2008 420
    2009 459
    2010 500
    2011 591
    2012 699

    There's no question set production has increased, but these numbers are somewhat misleading. CMFs are listed separately, and PAB models shouldn't be included. Adjusted for both, the numbers look like this:

    2008: 420
    2009: 459
    2010: 468
    2011: 543
    2012: 631
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367

    Well IS stock seems to be plummeting again so finished the debate in my head and taken the plunge on 2 more to make it my biggest single set holding! Time will tell if its the right decision....

    Sigh...I guess I should just get on board and buy one. I'll hate myself it I miss out before pulling together the money for one.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,896
    ^If those numbers are from BL, then it may include include each Adven calendar day individually. And plenty of other weird promos - Sun this, and video game that, which shouldn't be considered.

    Back in the day, you had so much less of everything. We all know this. I would love to see minifigs produced by year. It's all relative by themed releases of course.

    A random sampling...
    Town minifigs released in 1990 - 39. In 2012, 96.
    SW minifigs released in 2000 - 18. In 2012, 72.

    Ah, but...Space minifigs released in 2012 - 1.

    I still feel good that the Town / City category trumps Star Wars in the total minifig race all-time, 1643 to 500.
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    I'm sure you won't regret it. I imagine a lot of people felt the same way about the ucs falcon. Not saying the shuttle will come anywhere close to that but I've learned the hard way that regret in Lego land can be costly...literally :)
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,579
    edited January 2013
    prevere said:

    Back in the day, you had so much less of everything. We all know this. I would love to see minifigs produced by year. It's all relative by themed releases of course.

    You can see *new* minifigs by year here ...

    http://www.brickset.com/minifigs/browse/
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    I am not into SW anywhere nearly as much as most of you, but I think the UCS IS and UCS MF are two of the best SW sets.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337

    Well IS stock seems to be plummeting again so finished the debate in my head and taken the plunge on 2 more to make it my biggest single set holding! Time will tell if its the right decision....

    Just remember you will be competing against others who bought it for far less than RRP. Tread carefully.
  • littlepuppilittlepuppi Member Posts: 181
    Before my last purchase of 2 (I have 6) with an average purchase price of £170... Which I think is pretty good.. Been building them up a while.. So by my calculations this bring my aveage up to £182.50 which should be good to go (hopefully) :)
  • mountebankmountebank Member Posts: 1,237
    edited January 2013
    A week ago, Amazon.com had nearly 400 IS #10212 sets left. Now there are less than 100. I expect the final ones will go sharpish and so maybe we're looking at the last 24 hours.

    It's very anorak-y of me but I'm finding it rather fascinating to see an EoL in real time.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    I would not be worried if I had 6 (I think I have 3-5, I need to check), even if I paid RRP for them (which I didn't). It won't be the UCS MF, but I think it be the set that comes the closest to it.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    I don't think the IS will come anywhere near the UCS MF. The fact that the UCS MF has more unique parts is one reason. Obviously they made more of the IS than the UCS MF. The UCS MF was more expensive than what the IS is now. Also, there are a lot more resellers that have purchased the IS. IMO I don't even think that the IS will reach the Death Star II price. The IS will do well, but how well? Perfect boxes will command a premium for the IS for sure given the problems many people have had with shipping.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited January 2013
    I agree that it won't do anywhere near as well as the UCS MF, but will do very well. Better than the great majority of UCS sets, is what I meant. A distant second to the MF, but still ahead of the rest.

    Better than the DS? We'll just have to wait and see. :-)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    edited January 2013
    So, your rankings go as follows:

    1. UCS MF
    2. IS
    3. DS

    To be clear, you mean the Death Star that's currently on sale?
  • kim43235kim43235 Member Posts: 165
    I have IS in my goldbox deal today (at $247) but I really hate to pay price near RRP. I have about 10 of them so far. Should I get greedy at this glorious moment of IS being EOL'd?
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367
    I've been hoping all week for the IS to show up in my gold box with no luck. Finally bit the bullet, after going back and forth for the last two hours on if I really should. It is my first and only copy, and it sucks that I'm paying RRP, but it's for me and I really don't want to be kicking myself in six months when it's going for $100 more. Already learned that lesson the hard way with the IF.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 950
    edited January 2013
    #10212 will jump $100 over msrp overnight, or in a few overnights. Given the large number of technic beams, this set will be impossible to bricklink within just a few months. It has winner written all over it.

    Visit bricklink and part this one out!
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    edited January 2013
    93 IS left at Amazon. They are starting to go quicker now. If you have been putting it off, buy one now:) RRP+free shipping, best price most are likely to find it at ever again. They will be $300+ next week and you will be kicking yourself:) The only other possible stock I can think of is if TRU still has some and keeps bringing it back in stock like they do often, but they currently don't have any available.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    86....okay I'm done
    FollowsClosely
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 950
    I just added more to my stash as well. I just can't help it.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    bought 2 more. what the heck
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