Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

Dad

JamesJT said:

Should we all 'fess up about how many FB and DS we have taking up room and not earning any intrrest? You guys first...

I thougth about starting a thread named ' Every man and his dog' to do this exact same thing!! Just put UK or US and then list what you are sat on

JamesJT

^^^Like, how many Calimari and Obi-Wan Jedi Starfighter you got?

momof2boys99

I will say I still own 6 Home One's. Will they ever climb? Does anyone need one?

111ins

10 home one
8 fb
6 ds
6 jedi sf (@$50 ea)

Pacific493

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mressin said:

thornie said:

It's an absolute certainty. The photos leaked a few weeks ago, but they had the "confidential" watermark, so they were all taken down. Here are the set names...

Thanks for the info, I must have completely missed that during my Christmas stupor.

Still unsure how #10223 Joust, #853373 Kingdoms Chess and #7946 King's Castle will do in the aftermarket - specifically #7946, as a new King's Castle has already been announced.

I would think that if you are holding onto 7946 to resell, now is the time to sell. Conversely, if you are looking to buy, I would wait until the new one comes out. I would think that it is unlikely for the set to increase

momof2boys99 said:

I will say I still own 6 Home One's. Will they ever climb? Does anyone need one?

Ugh...I had 8 Home Ones (all bought with the thought...hey, there's no way these won't rise in value). I've dumped 6 and have 2 left. I'll dump those soon...it's a waste to continue keeping money tied up in them.

doriansdad

I have fond memories of Home One. It was a dog of a set but it was the last year TLG offered a great sale when they clearanced them out. Good times :)

wagnerml2

I know that you we all focus on the unopened stuff, but in the last year, I have purchased several large collections off of an "I buy legos" ad I have on Craigslist (as posted collections hardly hit the list anymore). I have found that I get a huge return on used, but complete sets on ebay and the puchase discount off RRP and return on investment is much larger. for instance, I bought a collection of 110 SW sets that ranged from 2000-2009. Paid $1,000. Had to drive 110 miles to pick them up, have netted (after ebay and paypal fees) $3200 so far and have 20 or so sets left to sell. I have charted 5 other collections I bought in 2012 and have made more than 100% on each. The benefit of this is that you can turn the profit right away rather than sit on the sets for 24-36 months Sale prices also tend to be higher because the shipping prices can be lowered as you are only shipping the bricks and not the box. The downside is that there is a bit more effort involved on the front end that requires you to verify the completeness of each set and obtain the odd brick that may not be in your bulk bins.

I still buy tons of unopenned stuff, although I find myself cutting back a bit in favor of this method. I see it as "diversifying" my portfolio, so to speak. Anyone else doing this? I'd be interested in hearing successes/failures. Also interested on whether this might be a more stable approach as you are selling to collectors and that the "bubble" may not apply as drastically as it would to unopenned stuff. Thoughts?

wagnerml2

BTW,

FB 4
Home One 1
DS 3
JS 0

Pacific493

wagnerml2 said:

I know that you we all focus on the unopened stuff, but in the last year, I have purchased several large collections off of an "I buy legos" ad I have on Craigslist (as posted collections hardly hit the list anymore). I have found that I get a huge return on used, but complete sets on ebay and the puchase discount off RRP and return on investment is much larger. for instance, I bought a collection of 110 SW sets that ranged from 2000-2009. Paid $1,000. Had to drive 110 miles to pick them up, have netted (after ebay and paypal fees) $3200 so far and have 20 or so sets left to sell. I have charted 5 other collections I bought in 2012 and have made more than 100% on each. The benefit of this is that you can turn the profit right away rather than sit on the sets for 24-36 months Sale prices also tend to be higher because the shipping prices can be lowered as you are only shipping the bricks and not the box. The downside is that there is a bit more effort involved on the front end that requires you to verify the completeness of each set and obtain the odd brick that may not be in your bulk bins.

I still buy tons of unopenned stuff, although I find myself cutting back a bit in favor of this method. I see it as "diversifying" my portfolio, so to speak. Anyone else doing this? I'd be interested in hearing successes/failures. Also interested on whether this might be a more stable approach as you are selling to collectors and that the "bubble" may not apply as drastically as it would to unopenned stuff. Thoughts?

I've moved in the opposite direction. I got into this by buying used collections, breaking them down, and selling them off, but am now focusing more on new sealed sets. There's definitely good money in doing that, but it has a lot of challenges that buying and selling new sealed sets does not. If you can buy a large collection that has sets that are complete and already built, those are easy to flip. If you buy a mass lot of bricks that you have to sort and then break down into individual sets, that takes a ton of time. If you have time to give, it's definitely a good way to make money.

wagnerml2

@pacific493 - I hear you. I am very selective in the collections I buy. The 5 I've charted in 2012 were all collections with built models w/ Instructions. What I've found it that these tend to be nicer collections, ususally better kept and, as you point out, alot less time intensive. I have also had much better success buying larger collections (over $1000) as it really cuts down on the number of bidders on the collections.

I did buy a few "Tub" collection last year, but at SEVERE discounts as you can never verify completeness of anything and the time to break it out is huge. The best one had a CC and GG in it. I am in the process of breaking that one out.

I have found that the time I spend chasing down sets at a discount is almost equal to the time I spend verifying completeness of sets, photoraphing them and posting them on Ebay.

JamesJT

Soooooooo many ways to make money from lego! Restoring old sets, splitting a new set with PF parts or mini figures, putting the right new sets away for next christmas.

FB 5
HO 3
DS 3
JS 3

gmpirate

I think how/what you sell just depends on the individual to make sense of it. Short on money? go used/complete sets and part-outs. Short on Time? go new and sealed sets. Short on both time and money? get a second job :)

avoiceoreason

FB 45
HO 0
DS 10
JS 0

And let it be known that the FBs have already been collecting dust for 18-24 months. I bought these a year after I loaded up on GG thinking it would be a once a year venture on the modulars, rinse-and-repeat so to speak. Then TLG changed the retirement plan. :(

I actually think this helps sustain the reselling market in a way. There are only so many people who have the ability to buy and store a large # of large sets. The changes with the retirement pattern (or lack thereof) will cause some to walk away from re-selling altogether given the risk of buying and potentially needing to hold a set has increased. Or at least not buy as many of any given set.

As has been stated before, this isn't as easy or simple as I think some people believe.

I may very well be sitting on those DS's for another 5 years for all I know. I do, however, disagree with those that think it will be a slow climb once retired. I expect it to double. Quickly. Of course I am talking my own book. ;)

Bumblepants

New A-Wing will only make the Home One even worse. It has the ship and the Mon Calimari fig. leaving no real reason to pursue the more expensive HO.

gmpirate

^^ I agree. This will shake a lot of people -- probably most.

pharmjod

I dumped whatever home ones I had a couple of years ago at cost or below just to get rid of them. Total dud.

kim43235

wagnerml2 said:

I know that you we all focus on the unopened stuff, but in the last year, I have purchased several large collections off of an "I buy legos" ad I have on Craigslist (as posted collections hardly hit the list anymore). I have found that I get a huge return on used, but complete sets on ebay and the puchase discount off RRP and return on investment is much larger. for instance, I bought a collection of 110 SW sets that ranged from 2000-2009. Paid $1,000. Had to drive 110 miles to pick them up, have netted (after ebay and paypal fees) $3200 so far and have 20 or so sets left to sell. I have charted 5 other collections I bought in 2012 and have made more than 100% on each. The benefit of this is that you can turn the profit right away rather than sit on the sets for 24-36 months Sale prices also tend to be higher because the shipping prices can be lowered as you are only shipping the bricks and not the box. The downside is that there is a bit more effort involved on the front end that requires you to verify the completeness of each set and obtain the odd brick that may not be in your bulk bins.

I still buy tons of unopenned stuff, although I find myself cutting back a bit in favor of this method. I see it as "diversifying" my portfolio, so to speak. Anyone else doing this? I'd be interested in hearing successes/failures. Also interested on whether this might be a more stable approach as you are selling to collectors and that the "bubble" may not apply as drastically as it would to unopenned stuff. Thoughts?

If you can get such a good deals around your areas then this is definitely way to go. You can't beat EOL'd complete used sets for bargain.

Dad

avoiceoreason said:

FB 45
HO 0
DS 10
JS 0

And let it be known that the FBs have already been collecting dust for 18-24 months. I bought these a year after I loaded up on GG thinking it would be a once a year venture on the modulars, rinse-and-repeat so to speak. Then TLG changed the retirement plan. :(

I actually think this helps sustain the reselling market in a way. There are only so many people who have the ability to buy and store a large # of large sets. The changes with the retirement pattern (or lack thereof) will cause some to walk away from re-selling altogether given the risk of buying and potentially needing to hold a set has increased. Or at least not buy as many of any given set.

As has been stated before, this isn't as easy or simple as I think some people believe.

I may very well be sitting on those DS's for another 5 years for all I know. I do, however, disagree with those that think it will be a slow climb once retired. I expect it to double. Quickly. Of course I am talking my own book. ;)

DS 11
FB 10
MMV 14

I agree with this too. I have been sat on the above for over 2 years now easily as well as lots of others. The good times are still there without doubt but they will be harder to predict. I am only small time / part time but carry £25k stock at RRP. Regardless of what you are buying and selling you have got to make your own decisions and timing is crucial. Plus you have got to get your name out there in different places to everyone else. I have smaller sets in a couple of shops around where I live that turn over quietly away. My daughter started school this year and I did 6 or 7 sales for Christmas through school and have done a couple of sales to neighbours. Once you gain that trust things will only grow. What many people don't realise is that you are ultimately running a business and you have to make crucial decisions.

For the record I believe DS will be +50% within 2 months of retirement. Saying that, I have had 40+ of some sets at times but I won't be buying anymore DS's!!

prevere

DS will definitely increase once retired. I agree there.

Interesting DS data for comparison:
A) Death Star II (10143) - couple of eBay sales north of $1,000 for sealed sets past few months. Retail price $270. Lifespan 16 months. Few parts, and no FIGS.

B) Current active Death Star (10188) - available for $360. Lifespan ?. More parts, and a boatload of FIGS.

DS 2
FB 2
Construct-a-Zurg 1

LegoFanTexas

^ All true, but consider that people weren't here talking about DS II and hoarding them. I don't think there are that many copies of that set out there.

DS (10188) I think has been purchase far more for resale than DS II (10143) ever was.

Just my thoughts...

samiam391

prevere said:

Construct-a-Zurg 1

Bleah.. I threw that thing in a trash bag and gave it away for free...

Renny

5 Fire Brigades ( 1 will be for my collection though)
0 Death Stars ( I think this will be around for a long time)

whatsinaname

They might cancel orders again but Shuttle Expedition 10231 seems to be in stock on eBay at the TRU store.

Renny

^ thank you.

LegoFanTexas

^ Likewise, we shall see if they ship the 2 I ordered...

avoiceoreason

LegoFanTexas said:

^ All true, but consider that people weren't here talking about DS II and hoarding them. I don't think there are that many copies of that set out there.

DS (10188) I think has been purchase far more for resale than DS II (10143) ever was.

Just my thoughts...

I agree with everything you said. But you also have to remember that there is also a larger base of buyers today than there was then. TLG is outpacing the overall toy market by several orders of magnitude. Is the base increasing at a rate large enough to cover the increased supply? We'll see.

Also, I have to go back to the belief that there aren't that many people that are willing to stash away 100, or 50, or even 20 $400 sets. So some may be overestimating the amount of DS stockpiling out there. And I imagine that some people that have sat on these for a couple of years just dump them at Christmas to free up cash flow.

Someone mentioned a few pages back that perhaps the pendulum on DS has swung too far the other way. I myself am in the pessimistic camp that this could be around for another 5 years or more. And we all joke about it never retiring. But what if we wake up one day soon, and poof, it has disappeared. In that scenario, $1,000 w/i 12 months seems perfectly feasible to me.

doriansdad

When we get whiff of the next huge playset (Cloud City) then I will buy 10188.

wagnerml2

The DS argument has 2 sides, first, it IS a $400 set. Some people put off that kind of purchase as long as they possibly can, therefore there may be a percentage of AFOLS who HAVEN'T bought thier copy yet. The members on this board represent a small percentage of the AFOLS around the globe who collect. Sometimes we take the information for granted that we have here regardin EOL and sales.

On the flip side, it has been out for such a long time that a large number of those who may not have purchased a $400 set normally may have done so by now. It will be interesting to see.

I can remember standing in the Michigan Avenue TLG store with my brother debating spending $500 on MF. He tried to talk me into it and I passed. It EOLed 2 weeks later and I never got my copy. While there may be less examples like this with DS, there will be some.

doriansdad

I think collectors will go nuts for 10188. It will surely go down as one of the bests sets TLG has ever produced, and also in its most popular theme. If I did not own it I would have no problem ponying up $2k to get one. Other than 10179 I can't think of another SW set that comes close?

FatMatt

Anyone who may have missed DA, it is "call to check availability at [email protected]".

FatMatt

^^While their are many who would pay that much for one, just as they do for 10179, I believe there are many being held back for resale which will keep the price well below 2K for a long time.

y2josh

LegoFanTexas said:

^ All true, but consider that people weren't here talking about DS II and hoarding them. I don't think there are that many copies of that set out there.

DS (10188) I think has been purchase far more for resale than DS II (10143) ever was.

Just my thoughts...

I don't think there are that many people 'hoarding' 10188, either. As I mentioned earlier, it's a difficult set to justify sitting on, both in terms of investment and storage.

To that end, I am just as confident that 10188 will be outperforming 10143 within two years of EOL as I am of 10188 hitting $600 within weeks of EOL.

jockosjungle

It'll probably come down in price when resellers realise they have 98% of them.

y2josh

^I'm assuming you're only kidding, but if resellers even have 2% of them, I'd be astonished.

FatMatt

y2josh, I believe you may be right about that to an extent, but I also think there are still many more being held back than there were 10179. Personally, I see it taking quite a while to hit 2K.

wagnerml2

^^ True dat!

y2josh

^No doubts there. And I don't think 10188 will ever reach the heights the Falcon has. But I still think it shouldn't have any problem overtaking 10143 in a relatively short amount of time (post-EOL, of course).

Pacific493

FatMatt said:

y2josh, I believe you may be right about that to an extent, but I also think there are still many more being held back than there were 10179. Personally, I see it taking quite a while to hit 2K.

There is absolutely no doubt about this...given the amount that 10179 has increased and the length that 10188 has been available, there is no way that there will be fewer 10188s available after EOL than there were with 10179. I continue to believe that 10188 is not going to do well in the immediate aftermath of it going EOL. It may rise over time, but I have a hard time seeing it climb very quickly after EOL.

Renny

I don't see any set hitting the $2000 mark anymore. If the 10188 set does manage that lofty goal, I'm guessing you would have to hold onto it for at least 5 years, if not more. Not to mention the possibility of a smaller, affordable remake. Unlikely but possible.

doriansdad

Well you also have to consider resellers coming in after EOL and buying 10188 in the $600 - $800 range to resell at $2k. I'd say the first stop would be $1200 after 1 year. Right now it will cost you north of $900 to bricklink one.

Grogall

CC 5
GG 10
FB 5
GE 5
PS 3
TH 3

ALL MISB :-p

Renny

whatsinaname said:

They might cancel orders again but Shuttle Expeditionary 10231 seems to be in stock on eBay at the TRU store.

Just received cancellation and refund. Ah well.

LegoFanTexas

Yep, they just canceled my SE as well. Oh well, not surprised...

lulwut

I still buy tons of unopenned stuff, although I find myself cutting back a bit in favor of this method. I see it as "diversifying" my portfolio, so to speak. Anyone else doing this? I'd be interested in hearing successes/failures. Also interested on whether this might be a more stable approach as you are selling to collectors and that the "bubble" may not apply as drastically as it would to unopenned stuff. Thoughts?

Used collections takes up too much time. If you don't have a wall organized with bricks, picking and accounting for pieces is exhausting. I've set on my buttocks in a nice comfy leather chair cherry picking pieces to complete sets and it still hurts. Plus you have to wash and dry them used collections. Not worth my time unless I'm old and retired with nothing to do.

morbiczer

One thing that potentially could hurt the resale value of 10188 Death Stars if TLG produces a new improved version 2-3 years after the retirement of the first version.

We all "know" that once sets such as the modular buildings, Taj Mahal, Tower Bridge, etc. are EOL'd, they will never be remade. Same is also true most likely for UCS sets. TLG could always decide to produce a new DS playset.

gmpirate

Both of my SE cancelled as well. Only 1 or 2 were sold when I ordered as well.

effinga

First post here. Any input is great. My local lego store has a bunch of #10229 winter village cottages marked down to $80. I see they are selling for ~$130-150 on eBay right now. Should I buy these up? Will lego produce more of these sets for next Christmas? How much do you think it could bring come next holiday season? Any help is much appreciated. Also they had the #10222 winter post office for $55. Thanks

smellyworm

Both of these sets will be back in stock and plentiful come next year. If you plan on building them and enjoying them the price you have mentioned above would be great. I

samiam391

@effinga- Buy them up, and just flip them straight away, and maybe even hold onto a few for next Christmas or the coming summer (when people start getting their Christmas decorations). Personally, with most likely a re-release of #10229 coming this next Christmas, I'd just buy them and flip them straight away, and hold onto a few for summer, and sell the rest than.

Either way, you are guaranteed a nice $30 for each #10229. So why not?

And as they always say, "profit never hurt anyone".

thenos

effinga said:

First post here. Any input is great. My local lego store has a bunch of #10229 winter village cottages marked down to $80. I see they are selling for ~$130-150 on eBay right now. Should I buy these up? Will lego produce more of these sets for next Christmas? How much do you think it could bring come next holiday season? Any help is much appreciated. Also they had the #10222 winter post office for $55. Thanks

Where are you? My Lego store has been sold out of the cottage for awhile. I was going to buy one too. Now I'll just wait until the fall.