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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • legoprodslegoprods SpainMember Posts: 441



    I just try to pass along what I believe to be true to help everyone out. This forum has taught me so much and provided so much, I'm very grateful for it being here.

    And I, and many others, thank you for that.

    Oh, and I think we should drop this *disclaimer* stuff now. The revolution is over, everyone on the village is back to their regular programming. :)

    AND WHEN WILL THE LIVE STAR RETssshh!
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,549

    For me it takes the excitement away from purchasing the modulars. I love to collect, and half the fun of collecting is knowing you have something that had fairly limited availability. TLG only produces a handful of spectacular sets every year and it is a shame some of these spectacular sets will no longer be rare. I could care less about the reselling aspect, there will always be other sets and other markets entirely to make good $$$ on. Since we know modulars will be on shelves for 5-6 years it would be nice if they allowed us to pre-order limited edition versions - change up the box art and throw in some exclusive figs.....give me some motivation to buy now rather than 5 years down the track.

    The obvious problem is less sold = less profit. Unless you increase the selling price and thus charge the buyers for the exclusivity.

    The development costs are the same whether they sell 100, 10000, or 1000000. The price they charge you for development obviously depends on how many people that is spread over.

    What extra would you pay for a different box (contents exactly the same) if it was an exclusive? $10, $100?
  • mressinmressin Lego City... erm LondonMember Posts: 843
    edited January 2013
    thornie said:

    It's an absolute certainty. The photos leaked a few weeks ago, but they had the "confidential" watermark, so they were all taken down. Here are the set names...

    Thanks for the info, I must have completely missed that during my Christmas stupor.

    Still unsure how #10223 Joust, #853373 Kingdoms Chess and #7946 King's Castle will do in the aftermarket - specifically #7946, as a new King's Castle has already been announced.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    legoprods said:



    I just try to pass along what I believe to be true to help everyone out. This forum has taught me so much and provided so much, I'm very grateful for it being here.

    And I, and many others, thank you for that.

    Oh, and I think we should drop this *disclaimer* stuff now. The revolution is over, everyone on the village is back to their regular programming
    Every villiage needs its idiot :)

  • flyingpigflyingpig Member Posts: 119
    CCC said:

    For me it takes the excitement away from purchasing the modulars. I love to collect, and half the fun of collecting is knowing you have something that had fairly limited availability. TLG only produces a handful of spectacular sets every year and it is a shame some of these spectacular sets will no longer be rare. I could care less about the reselling aspect, there will always be other sets and other markets entirely to make good $$$ on. Since we know modulars will be on shelves for 5-6 years it would be nice if they allowed us to pre-order limited edition versions - change up the box art and throw in some exclusive figs.....give me some motivation to buy now rather than 5 years down the track.

    The obvious problem is less sold = less profit. Unless you increase the selling price and thus charge the buyers for the exclusivity.

    The development costs are the same whether they sell 100, 10000, or 1000000. The price they charge you for development obviously depends on how many people that is spread over.

    What extra would you pay for a different box (contents exactly the same) if it was an exclusive? $10, $100?
    @doriansdad Can I interest you in some European boxes to go along with your American ones? Box art is different!
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    Grogall said:

    For those of you who are speculating about 10197 FB or 10211 GE, I have news that TLG has decided to keep these sets in production throughout 2013, So this year we will have 5 Modular Buildings available till at least the end of the year!

    Yes Ive been given the same info, FB EOL Dec 13

  • littlepuppilittlepuppi Member Posts: 181
    Without wishing to get into discussions about "going deep :D" I have 6 imperial shuttles at the moment, all in mint boxes and im toying with the idea of 2 more, average price is 175 UKP so buying them from amazon.com will push up the average slightly.

    My plan is to slowly release them over the next 24 months..... Is this the best place to put the lego investment pounds at the moment? This would then represent about 15% of my lego, which is the largest in one set that I have...

    Thanks in advance...

    LP
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    New IS from amazon.com to UK looks tempting at £168 with free delivery but suddenly becomes £222 when you get to the check out. If you have 8, the last one you sell will be worth a fortune, unless it gets re-issued.
  • kim43235kim43235 Member Posts: 165
    I have been buying up FB when amazon warehouse deals come up. They are usually around $100 when it's available. About a year ago I stocked them up at almost full price which I kind of regret but we all thought it will be EOL'd end of last year. Will I regret again for $100 FB price a year later? We'll see..
  • JT32JT32 BasingstokeMember Posts: 124
    Yeah £220 is still a good price (£200 if you bought last week) delivered. A couple have already sold above RRP on ebay in the UK despite it still being available in some Lego shops. I know it's still very early but they are good signs for the future.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    I think extending the life of the modulars does hurt the collectibility. It has too. The question is - how much so.

    I think the more modulars there are hurts collectibility too. Especially when you are talking sets that retail for $150-200 each. Yes, there will always be those that want a complete, or near complete set, but that will be a minority. I mean, the great majority have already missed out on Market Street, myself included. I have no desire to have MS, especially for what it would cost me.

    Few people have the space or desire to have 6, 8, 10 modulars, either built or in the box. I think people will pick and choose among what is available and get the ones they like the most, relative to the going price, etc.

    I'm not concerned, I don't see LEGO extending the shelf life on all sets. Especially those that have new releases every year. So, they extend the life of the modulars. I'll just invest in other sets, ones that aren't around for 5 years.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    edited January 2013
    CCC said:


    The obvious problem is less sold = less profit. Unless you increase the selling price and thus charge the buyers for the exclusivity.

    The development costs are the same whether they sell 100, 10000, or 1000000. The price they charge you for development obviously depends on how many people that is spread over.

    What extra would you pay for a different box (contents exactly the same) if it was an exclusive? $10, $100?

    They did not have a problem doing it with the UCS Falcon. If you are talking about also including some exclusive figs I would have no problem pre-ordering at $500. Best part for them is I will also buy the regular copy to complete the collection. Maybe they can take Matty's model which is a step beyond CUUSOO and take preorders and if they hit the target number of subscribers the variant gets made. This should give them more concrete information than leaking pictures and reading responses on forums such as these lol.

  • YodaliciousYodalicious DagobahMember Posts: 1,366
    ^Wonder what extending the life will do for the "builders" as well. For example, seeing FB at $119 doesn't make me want to buy 5 to put away as an investment (I'm not a reseller), but it does make me consider it for parts. If I can find it for a little cheaper, I might consider adding a couple more to my collection solely for building purposes.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    ^ Yeah, I've been tempted by FB as a potential parts set. Considering the fact that Lego is increasing prices on the modulars, $119 is a great deal for 2300 bricks.
  • momof2boys99momof2boys99 Member Posts: 322

    ^Wonder what extending the life will do for the "builders" as well. For example, seeing FB at $119 doesn't make me want to buy 5 to put away as an investment (I'm not a reseller), but it does make me consider it for parts. If I can find it for a little cheaper, I might consider adding a couple more to my collection solely for building purposes.

    When the Walmart sales happened, I purchased sets to sale, but ended up giving several to my kids for Christmas for parts. They had the sets...but my 16 year old is all about MOC. So, I think a lot of builders are happy and will purchase a second when a sale happens.
  • odueckodueck Member Posts: 48

    ^Wonder what extending the life will do for the "builders" as well. For example, seeing FB at $119 doesn't make me want to buy 5 to put away as an investment (I'm not a reseller), but it does make me consider it for parts. If I can find it for a little cheaper, I might consider adding a couple more to my collection solely for building purposes.

    Agreed, owning a second one for the parts would be great. I was under the impression FB was going away so I bought it from [email protected] at Canadian RRP + shipping and tax so I ended up overpaying for mine. Should have been more patient.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257

    I think the 'little timmy' garbage needs to go.
    It was 'cute' and funny when it was used once.. now in its 296th incarnation it is getting old...Let it go already.

    Perhaps you misunderstood: I am not bemoaning Little Timmy's toy deprivation, I am commenting on the high publicity story I'm sure you're familiar with. Such an event, in combination with a few skyrocketing retired sets, persuades TLG not only to keep sets in production longer (or, what comes to the same thing, produce more and use their increased warehouse capacity to store them and sell them slowly at RRP), but also to take most of the guesswork out of when sets are EOLing with the "Retiring Soon" tag. That is clealy a strategy aimed at the broadest consumer base, or thousands of potential Little Timmy's. Hopefully for every FB and DS there will still be an Ice Dragon and Zombies.
  • hoyatableshoyatables Northern Virginia, USAMember Posts: 867
    Fine by me if LEGO wants to keep the modulars in production for longer -- I'd hope that the longer production run allows them to keep prices a little lower. But that also means I am not going to run out and buy the new sets as I have in the past - far better to wait for a decent sale, or at least a good promo.
    FollowsClosely
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,667

    I think the 'little timmy' garbage needs to go.
    It was 'cute' and funny when it was used once.. now in its 296th incarnation it is getting old...Let it go already.

    Perhaps you misunderstood: I am not bemoaning Little Timmy's toy deprivation, I am commenting on the high publicity story I'm sure you're familiar with. Such an event, in combination with a few skyrocketing retired sets, persuades TLG not only to keep sets in production longer (or, what comes to the same thing, produce more and use their increased warehouse capacity to store them and sell them slowly at RRP), but also to take most of the guesswork out of when sets are EOLing with the "Retiring Soon" tag. That is clealy a strategy aimed at the broadest consumer base, or thousands of potential Little Timmy's. Hopefully for every FB and DS there will still be an Ice Dragon and Zombies.
    No no I understand what you meant.. I'm just sick of the 'little timmy' garbage out there.. just let it die please. And I really do not think it is little timmy, it would be a lot more than one child to make LEGO decide the FB is out for 4 years, mostly sales or a lot of comments/complaints, and since as many resellers like to point out 'timmy' cannot usually afford a FB anyway Im guessing many are adults. These are complaints from the same people that bemoaned the inability to get a Cafe Corner and Market Street, as well as many other Sets. I think to use a general term to call all of them 'little timmy's' sounds more insulting IMO than trying to prove a point, that is why I feel it needs to stop in general.

    Fine by me if LEGO wants to keep the modulars in production for longer -- I'd hope that the longer production run allows them to keep prices a little lower. But that also means I am not going to run out and buy the new sets as I have in the past - far better to wait for a decent sale, or at least a good promo.

    I agree, it will just cause more discounts on sets that still around from what in my opinion is way too long, but good in general for 'parters' or those that do not want to pay 150-200 dollars for a mod.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    I think Lego made a mistake retiring Green Grocer and Cafe Corner. For most people, once they buy one modular they want to buy them all. The resellers be damned ; ) They can go back to beanie babies and baseball cards.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ As the number of modulars grows I think at some point a person doesn't care about having all of them. Especially at $150-200 each. (Technically, to have all of them a person must have Market Street.) The Cinema will be the 8th modular. Before we know it, there will be 10, then 12. Yeah, it would be great to have them all, but if I were missing one or two (I will never have MS) it would not bother me. I think at some point the collectibility factor wanes. And, if someone is late to the party I see them seeing it as a costly mountain to climb and decide it isn't worth it. They would find better ways to spend their coin.
    ogelogelricho
  • Chang405Chang405 Member Posts: 81
    ^ Yup, that is exactly how I feel. As someone who was late to the modular party (I was mostly a castle guy), I feel that spending $600-1000+ for GG or MS or CC was simply not worth it. I could spend the same amount of money on other awesome looking Lego sets out there and I would still have tons of fun.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 950
    Your best guess: How many copies of #10197 (Fire Brigade) have been produced?
  • 111ins111ins Member Posts: 265
    8 and I have them all, now please buy them from me for $5000 each
    :)
  • dr_tengdr_teng Member Posts: 101
    I haven't even gotten into the modular line yet (as in, I'm super interested just haven't purchased any since I only recently got back into LEGO) but yeah, it's obvious at some point that people won't have to have them all. However, I don't think that'll lower the value of the previous ones. Likely as the line continues it'll draw in an even larger crowd, newer people like myself, and they'll still want the older ones. Or at least, the best of the older ones.

    I'd certainly love to get Green Grocer because of the design but I don't ever see myself forking over the money for it. For people with more disposable income in my position? Sure, why not.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    edited January 2013
    Anything is possible, but every time I see a show where someone is trying to find or sell something they always ask "Do you have all of them?" or "Do you have the complete collection?"

    Maybe Lego is different. Why are people buying Cafe Corner and Market Street now? The same reason why they will want them years from now.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    Sure, modulars are popular and in high production now, but what keeps Palace Cinema from being the last, next to last, next to next to last, whatever?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^I have been wondering the same thing.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    I guess the same goes for the Winter Village Series.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    I think LEGO has a winner on their hands with the modulars. For one, no licensing fees. For two, they are relatively pricey, which typically means a nice profit margin. For three, they are popular. I think they will continue to be popular as long as each new modular is unique, adds to the street, is nice looking, etc. I think each new one is better than the previous ones in certain ways, so LEGO is still improving the theme. I think they can add quite a few more unique buildings before the theme becomes stale.

    I don't think that is the issue so much as the number and size of them. I simply think a person's interest will wane simply due to there being 12, 14... modulars to choose from, to buy, to collect, to build, to store.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,896
    If it sells, it continues.
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    edited January 2013
    They sill have heaps of Modulars they could do:
    Police Station
    Ambulance/Paramedics
    Doctors or even Hospital
    Mechanics/garage
    Bank
    Museum
    Hotel
    Restaurant
    Bike Shop
    Toy Shop
    School

    That's just a few I can think of in a couple of minutes. Even if some of those were combined they still have at least 7 or 8 years worth. The other thing I see as a possibility is TLG releasing half size Modulars, so ones like the Pet shop split into two individual sets. This could get even more people addicted to the Modulars, as they would have a cheaper price point.

    Value will be there for in after market on all Modulars, maybe just not 10+ times the original price.



  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,667
    Do not forget a Hardware store either.
    My guess is we will probably see another mod in the vein of the pet shop where it is part commercial and part residential.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,896
    Does anyone remember a mention of a Modulars supplement add-on set that is supposed to available this year? I remember seeing something back in the fall mixed in with initial notes on 2013 offerings.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Yup, the Cinema is great and a nice addition. When I think of the modulars I think of a downtown street from 1920-1950 back when the cinema was downtown.

    Also, another store almost always downtown back then was the Drug Store with a soda jerk, etc. And, you're right, banks were always downtown too and a garage with gas pumps. In my hometown the hospital, police station, and schools were not downtown. But, in larger cities I think they had/have precincts?
    Dougout
  • YodaliciousYodalicious DagobahMember Posts: 1,366
    prevere said:

    Does anyone remember a mention of a Modulars supplement add-on set that is supposed to available this year? I remember seeing something back in the fall mixed in with initial notes on 2013 offerings.

    Yes. And I think there was some debate if this would be an add-on for the minifig-sized modulars or additional buildings to get all the mini modulars current.

  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,549
    prevere said:

    Does anyone remember a mention of a Modulars supplement add-on set that is supposed to available this year? I remember seeing something back in the fall mixed in with initial notes on 2013 offerings.


    Yeah, and there was no conclusion as to whether it was furniture, minifigs, "street furniture" (lights, newspaper stands, etc), road / pavement / sidewalk pieces, or bricks to add realism to the street.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,667
    LEGO SE back to Call to check for product availability on [email protected] US (not sure if it ever stopped being that stus from the last time I saw it)
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ nice post, thank you
  • littlepuppilittlepuppi Member Posts: 181
    Thanks for the replies on IS chaps, I think I will get another 2 this week...
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^I am almost positive that the Modular Supplements are for the mini's.
    FollowsClosely
  • PicopiratePicopirate Member Posts: 316
    If the supplements are for the regular modulars then i hope they include a pedestal clock for the sidewalk. Though that could be saved for the eventual bank set.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Maybe the market is not big enough to support modular accessories, but it would be nice. They could model the product line much like Department 56 does their villages lines. Sets of city trees, parks, merry-go-rounds, shrubs, cars, bridges, news stands, etc.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,896
    ^That's what I'm thinking. Kind of like the town accessories mail-in offerings from the 80s, but "on steroids" so to speak with modulars in mind.
  • ptericpteric Member Posts: 156

    Your best guess: How many copies of #10197 (Fire Brigade) have been produced?

    A lot, a ton have been stockpiled away to resell. may double over quite a few years but will never be Cafe Corner or Green Grocer. Same with the Death Star, too many have been produced and stockpiled away, will never be the UCS Falcon.

  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    Should we all 'fess up about how many FB and DS we have taking up room and not earning any intrrest? You guys first...
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    Honestly? I have 5 total. I have 1 that has a hole in the box that I'm going use for parts. To me, there have just been way too many sales on this model compared to the others that are still on the market. Regardless, it is still going to do well. I just rather put my money into other sets rather than to go "deep" on this one.
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    24 FB's and 2 DS's so far
  • mountebankmountebank Member Posts: 1,237
    FB - 1
    DS - 0

    (Although reading it like that I have the voice of James Alexander Gordon in my head.)
  • leego76leego76 Chandlers FordMember Posts: 360

    FB - 1
    DS - 0

    (Although reading it like that I have the voice of James Alexander Gordon in my head.)

    Good home win for the lower league opposition!
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