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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    edited January 2013
    Basta said:

    I think BTTF will do really well, second only to Minecraft as far as cuusoo sets.

    Minecraft was a bit of an anomaly, but I do not think BTTF will be a failure at all.

    Lego appear to becoming aCUUSOOmed more with their inventory, less discounts at the end of the year etc. So they will know not to go crazy at first and stock too many of these. A good sign for this set will be if its out of stock within a Month of going on sale.

    I agree that it wont be as popular as Minecraft, but for lads in their 30's (like myself) and above, its a little gem. Ive recently purchased a few Diecast BTTF models. Brings back memories and keeps me feeling like a kid again. The wife has always said Im a bit of a kid anyway and wasnt surprised when I said I was going to dig deep on these. She just grunted, flick her hair back and walked off in a huff.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    I think many of our significant others would call us BIG KIDS. :)
    Yodalicious
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    prevere said:

    I think many of our significant others would call us BIG KIDS. :)

    My wife always talks about her Two children. We only have one child :p

    FollowsCloselySupersympa
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited January 2013
    BttF is a classic (like the original SW trilogy), and I would even let my kids watch the shows if there wasn't so much language. Yep...I will try to grab any BttF sets for sure; however, my kids definitely won't be interested (without seeing the movies)!

    A person could take the TH (and the rest of the modulars) and build the downtown set including the clock tower from BttF. There are some serious possibilities...
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748


    A person could take the TH (and the rest of the modulars) and build the downtown set including the clock tower from BttF. There are some serious possibilities...

    Now that would be genius :-)
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Or take the MF Ghost Train / Time Twisters Train and mix them together to make this.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^ Great Scott!! The key component of course is the flux capacitor.

    I like it...
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379

    Why? Because events have been happening over the past 40 years that set this up. We shouldn't have left the gold standard, we shouldn't be allowing the Fed to control the money supply, and we sure as heck shouldn't allow the banks to do this:

    http://demonocracy.info/infographics/usa/derivatives/bank_exposure.html

    Something tells me that you have more than one Ron Paul book sitting on your shelf.
    FollowsCloselyLegoFanTexas
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    ^ Great Scott!! The key component of course is the flux capacitor.

    I like it...

    Yes, this is heavy!
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    "Why are things so heavy in the future?"
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Any updates on 10240 X-Wing Red Leader? Please tell me this is a bust of a pilot and not the first UCS rehash!
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Pitfall69 said:

    "Why are things so heavy in the future?"

    Shark still looks fake...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    Any updates on 10240 X-Wing Red Leader? Please tell me this is a bust of a pilot and not the first UCS rehash!

    I once said that UCS rehashes would be a mistake...

    I'm going to modify that comment after thinking about it...

    Quick rehashes would indeed remain a mistake, but there must be some period of time (which could be debated how long that is) until it isn't really a problem.

    Just to make the point and take it to extremes, does anyone think that if they waited 100 years, doing a rehash would be a problem? I doubt it...

    So if the number is less than 100 years, what is it? 10 years? 20 years? 5 years?

    #7191 is now 13 years old, is that long enough that anyone who ever cared about collecting it, either has it or has passed it by? Does anyone care about the current value of their set at this point in time? Are there still people waiting to sell this one?

    I own a copy of #7191, built and displayed. Would it become worth less if they make another one? Yes, probably... Do I care? Eh... sorta, kinda, not really...

    What is it worth now? $400 based on current asking prices on Bricklink. Am I in a hurry to sell it? No, for that price I'd keep it. Am I going to like it less if it drops to $200? No, it is still darn impressive.

    Now, if it was currently worth $4,000 and the value dropped to $2,000, I'd care a lot more, to be sure. But since it isn't, perhaps the time has indeed come to rerelease it.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    Why does [email protected] still have #10193 available? I thought this was definitely leaving. Oh how stupid I feel now for investing in this set and not more #10129 or #10231.


    On a side note, Diagon Alley seems to have done well on ebay today for all those skeptics. :)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,174
    edited January 2013
    ^----'Done Well' is a relative term I think.
    It is going on high average for about 199.99 WITH Free Shipping very recently.. count all of the eBay fees and how much it could cost to ship and it is more of a sale of 165-170 at best. Seeing as many many recently likely bought this set for 150 at Amazon.com recently I would not say it is making a fortune.
    Plus with many people thinking that they can flip these for more than the 150 that probably will drag down the overall dollars per set IMO
    It is "OK" if people got them for BOGO50 at a TRU sale or something.. otherwise Id say it has a ways to go still.
    I think it should get up there though.. for how long is anyone's guess as HP movies grow farther and farther away from the everyday life (unless the '3D' them and put them back in the theaters)
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    ^I think it is on a good path
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    edited January 2013

    ^----'Done Well' is a relative term I think.
    It is going on high average for about 199.99 WITH Free Shipping very recently.. count all of the eBay fees and how much it could cost to ship and it is more of a sale of 165-170 at best. Seeing as many many recently likely bought this set for 150 at Amazon.com recently I would not say it is making a fortune.
    Plus with many people thinking that they can flip these for more than the 150 that probably will drag down the overall dollars per set IMO
    It is "OK" if people got them for BOGO50 at a TRU sale or something.. otherwise Id say it has a ways to go still.
    I think it should get up there though.. for how long is anyone's guess as HP movies grow farther and farther away from the everyday life (unless the '3D' them and put them back in the theaters)

    HP is about the books, not the movies. Those are never going anywhere. Every halfway intelligent kid in the world will read these at some point growing up for decades to come, and become obsessed for a time, just like mine have. HP is as sure a thing as there is. Give it more than a week. :p
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    edited January 2013
    Double post, bah!
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,834
    #8092 seems to be finally gone. Probably won't be worth a huge about given the common minifigs, but still a nice one to have seeing as it is one of the first iconic scenes of the first film. As it has been a good deal at $12 US / £12.50 recently, it is likely to double cost price easily enough even though that probably means very little profit.

    I might sell mine to get a ride on the MF ...
    tom4086
  • mobimobi Member Posts: 22
    I have noticed that old classic Technic sets (like 8448, 8880, 8479, 8868 etc.) have lost their values lately. Earlier they are selling at insane prices. Now their prices at Ebay is much lower. May be those sets are now showing their age (20+ yeras) and newer Technic sets offer more.
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    8880 and 8480 still doing OK for me. Sun damage and expensive spares keep good examples in demand. 8285 and 8275 sell quicker than 8421 these days.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,834

    JP3804 said:

    ^ agree
    @ LegoFanTexas, You just can't win. Last Jan. it was the WalMart buying ( poor little Timmy ) and now this.
    I think if I were you I would just lurk in Jan. ;-)

    The board does seem to be evolving given that there haven't been any posts (at least that I've seen) bemoaning all of the sets poor little Timmy missed out on because of cruel and heartless resellers.
    Didn't you hear the news? Little Timmy has grown up a bit, and is now in his dark ages. So there is no need to worry about little Timmy any more. In fact, buy some discounted sets now and maybe you can help him get them when he recovers.
    Bumblepantsleego76momof2boys99Penkid11LegoFanTexasYodaliciousSharifa
  • jockosjunglejockosjungle Member Posts: 701
    I think BTTF will do well, as everyone loves the movie. Whereas I'd never heard of minecraft before
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,834
    edited January 2013

    I think BTTF will do well, as everyone loves the movie. Whereas I'd never heard of minecraft before

    Everyone?

    The problem is LEGO is primarily a toy aimed at kids. Most of those minecraft sets will have gone to kids, bought by parents. Kids have heard of minecraft. Now, we all know adults like lego too. But the number of adults that would buy a DVD of BTTF is likely to be different to the number that will buy a lego set and want it displayed. You can get much better scale models of the DeLorean. Unless you're into lego as well, would you go for a lego version or a better looking diecast one (probably for less money).

    Have today's kids heard of BTTF? It was a decent film, loved by kids of the 80s. I haven't watched it since probably the mid 90s, so I cannot say if today's kids will like it. I don't think my kids have ever seen it.

    In my view, minecraft was a crummy little set aimed at a massive fanbase of kids, for whom it is socially acceptable to buy lego as a present.

    The BTTF is a decent little model, but aimed at a somewhat different fan base. I'm sure it will sell well, but in a different way. I can see dads buying this "for their kids". I cannot see many dads buying it *for* their kids.
  • momof2boys99momof2boys99 Member Posts: 322
    My boys are 16 and 11 and they like BTTF. However, my older son was wanting it to be the western set while my younger son badly wanted it to be the Zelda set. So, it was not their first choice, but I am sure it will find it's way into our house.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337

    ^----'Done Well' is a relative term I think.
    It is going on high average for about 199.99 WITH Free Shipping very recently.. count all of the eBay fees and how much it could cost to ship and it is more of a sale of 165-170 at best. Seeing as many many recently likely bought this set for 150 at Amazon.com recently I would not say it is making a fortune.

    If folks are thinking they are going to make good money on a set 4 days after EOL they are definitely in the wrong business. Not everything is minecraft lol.
    Supersympa
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    CCC said:

    JP3804 said:

    ^ agree
    @ LegoFanTexas, You just can't win. Last Jan. it was the WalMart buying ( poor little Timmy ) and now this.
    I think if I were you I would just lurk in Jan. ;-)

    The board does seem to be evolving given that there haven't been any posts (at least that I've seen) bemoaning all of the sets poor little Timmy missed out on because of cruel and heartless resellers.
    Didn't you hear the news? Little Timmy has grown up a bit, and is now in his dark ages. So there is no need to worry about little Timmy any more. In fact, buy some discounted sets now and maybe you can help him get them when he recovers.
    I was thinking that Little Timmy had changed his tastes to Redakai since there is never any shortage of those items in the clearance section of Walmart.


    Penkid11
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923

    ^----'Done Well' is a relative term I think.
    It is going on high average for about 199.99 WITH Free Shipping very recently.. count all of the eBay fees and how much it could cost to ship and it is more of a sale of 165-170 at best. Seeing as many many recently likely bought this set for 150 at Amazon.com recently I would not say it is making a fortune.

    If folks are thinking they are going to make good money on a set 4 days after EOL they are definitely in the wrong business. Not everything is minecraft lol.
    No kidding. I'm thinking Xmas 2014 for DA. Comments like that may indicate there are a lot of impatient new resellers that aren't in it for the long haul. But, more as, looking for the next Minecraft. I have a feeling there were a lot of people that jumped on the Minecraft wagon too late and are stuck with holding the bag.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Minecraft is definitely an exception. Very much so. Which brings to light one of the main aspects of reselling - inventory. You must have a place to store LEGOS for a long time, usually months, sometimes years, in order to see a 2X or 3X RRP on your investment. And, here again, Minecraft is an exception. It was relatively small. Much, much smaller than most LEGO sets. As I look at my stack of Excavators. Inventory is a huge downside for me, because I'm not going to rent storage. So, I either find room in my house, or I quit buying until I have room. It's a good way to limit my inventory. :-)
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    Dougout said:

    Why does [email protected] still have #10193 available? I thought this was definitely leaving. Oh how stupid I feel now for investing in this set and not more #10129 or #10231.

    Ditto. For two weeks I looked at #10231 for $85 at Target...then poof. But I guess the fact that yet another person could not resist MMV speaks for itself.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    I don't think you can kick yourself for not buying UCS Snowspeeder vs. MMV.

    MMV will pay for itself and then some eventually. Goes back to the patience factor.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    edited January 2013
    If I was meant to have patience, I would have been a doctor :)

    I don't know what to make of the Back to the Future set. The movies are classic, but not in the same category as Star Wars. From time to time I will see a commercial or a tv show that will bring up a scene from the movie. On this show Auction Kings, someone was trying to sell his replica Delorian time machine. It was very impressive. Other than that, I don't see kids wanting this set.

    As far as storage space is concerned, that's really a big thing when it comes to reselling. Unless your single or have an understanding wife or no kids I don't see how you could put enough product away to make a decent amount of money.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    No lol, I meant the Maersk Train #10219 not the UCS Snowspeeder (I actually confuse those numbers so often it's embarrassing). This is a good example of why I should never listen to anyone but myself and I truly need to ignore the spec thread (I will right after this post). #10219 and #10231 we're rarely talked about and I feel #10219 was put down by a few of the bigger resellers on this thread (No idea why). Oh well, I will learn from these small mistakes :)


    Seriously though, why does [email protected] still have MMV
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    I think @dougout actually meant 10219 Maersk Train but transposed the numbers.
    Dougout
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,037
    edited January 2013
    Dougout said:

    ... I feel #10219 was put down by a few of the bigger resellers on this thread (No idea why). Oh well...

    Misinformation maybe? I have see no downside to this set, it is a guarantee to do well. It will be over $220 by Christmas 2013, over $320 next.

    Disclaimer: I have 8% of my funds locked up in this set.

    As for #10231. I only bought 4 of them as something did not feel right. I may regret that sooner than latter.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    SE will continue to climb the more Lego produces substandard space sets.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Storage is a HUGE obstacle. EFFECIENT storage is another. I've spent too much time moving things around as my inventory grew over the past year. Public storage is too expensive in California and security there is another big issue. I've looked at some homes to move to with an additional garage or other structure -- or at least the space to install a big Tuff Shed structure or something to that liking. If my business did not require a retail front I would just relocate that into a bigger space.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Storage is also hard when little kids are consistently running around my basement (where my Lego sets are located). It's usually ok and the kids are cute and really good. But once in awhile...
    Dougout
  • The_MackThe_Mack Member Posts: 239
    edited January 2013
    #10231 is very nice set, but their isn't any licensing in regards to making it. Nothing prevents TLG from making another version, and they will eventually. It's an iconic space ship that has great play value. Just because the real space shuttle is retried, that doesn't mean the image or the playability of it is.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^^^ and ^^ Yup, when you have a hodge podge of sets like I do, it makes it difficult to be efficient in stacking. I don't have 20 DS's in one area and 50 MMV's in another. I have everything intermingled in a small area (3 of this, 5 of that, 8 of something else), so I often have to move and re-stack to get to certain sets. That is, if I remember where they are. Then, when I get new sets they are just combined in however I can do so.
  • GrogallGrogall Munich, GermanyMember Posts: 159
    For those of you who are speculating about 10197 FB or 10211 GE, I have news that TLG has decided to keep these sets in production throughout 2013, So this year we will have 5 Modular Buildings available till at least the end of the year!
  • Bosstone100Bosstone100 USAMember Posts: 1,434
    ^ Seriously or are you joking? If you are serious, it must be because they've been selling so well. If that's the case, looks like the ultimate backfire.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    edited January 2013
    FB stands for Forever Back.
    GE stands for Getatable Easily.

    Honestly, at this point I just don't care. Mine will be hiding in the dark a few more years. It's ok.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,037
    Grogall said:

    For those of you who are speculating about 10197 FB or 10211 GE, I have news that TLG has decided to keep these sets in production throughout 2013, So this year we will have 5 Modular Buildings available till at least the end of the year!

    Sounds like many more years in the very back of my storage room.
  • mressinmressin Lego City... erm LondonMember Posts: 843
    What is the opinion about "Kingdoms" sets? With #10193 MMV virtually gone from retail, how much longer does #10223 Joust have, or #853373 Kingdoms Chess Set? Is #7946 King's Castle a keeper? Will Lego refrain from making successors to Kingdoms sets while LotR/Hobbit is out?
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    For some reason I thought FB was listed as retiring soon. But no modular is at this point.
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693

    ^ Seriously or are you joking? If you are serious, it must be because they've been selling so well. If that's the case, looks like the ultimate backfire.

    LEGO doesn't really discontinue mid-year. It's still available in the 2013 assortment, so it will be available throughout 2013.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    I posted a few pages back that my source told me to expect FB to go out Sept/Oct timeframe, 2013, at the soonest. It might or might not last until Christmas, depending on when the last production run was done and how quickly they sold, which would be hard to predict given the lack of historical sales data on a 4 year old modular building that is really only the 3rd full modular to ever retire.

    So yes, I think FB will be around this year...
  • thorniethornie Member Posts: 245
    mressin said:

    What is the opinion about "Kingdoms" sets? With #10193 MMV virtually gone from retail, how much longer does #10223 Joust have, or #853373 Kingdoms Chess Set? Is #7946 King's Castle a keeper? Will Lego refrain from making successors to Kingdoms sets while LotR/Hobbit is out?

    Joust should be around until the end of this year, chess is probably done, and 7946 is OK nothing great. LoTR has nothing to do with Kingdoms/Castle as TLG is releasing a new Castle line in 2013.
  • legoprodslegoprods SpainMember Posts: 445
    So then, in LFT and Grogall we trust?

    May I part out the sets I have stored now?
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