Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

Pitfall69

^The ships are a must and there are still a few ships to be made. I think Whitecap Bay will do well and maybe London Escape if not just for the Imperial Guards. The other sets were not that great IMO, but if you got them at a great discount you might be able to get a little over RRP for them.

Nadana86

I've heard PotC 5 + 6 will be released 2015 and 2016. Some documentary on the making ofs of the PotC 1-4.

Diggydoes

On Lego.de the Hayabusa-set seems to be gone for good! Any predictions? Is it still available in the UK/US?

smellyworm

cloaked7 said:

Do you find it ironic that a person wants the cliff notes on a discussion while at the same time calling it 'dumb stuff'?

That is the most stupid toy I've ever seen. I'm sure glad I wasn't stupid enough to buy it. Errr... may I play with it for a few minutes? I still think it's stupid, just curious. Yeah, that's it. Just curious. And, I will NOT have any fun while playing with it! Oh please, please, please! May I play with that stupid toy!

That is really dumb.

madforLEGO

What is wierd is the Black Pearl price really dropped from before Christmas..
I guess everyone that may have gotten one for Christmas is now listing it on eBay or something...
The other one that surprises me a bit is the IF dipping below 300 lately.

Pitfall69

Nadana86 said:

I've heard PotC 5 + 6 will be released 2015 and 2016. Some documentary on the making ofs of the PotC 1-4.

From what I've heard, Depp has signed on to do at least 1 other film.

momof2boys99

^My kids told me that. I just don't know how long I want to hang on to POTC Lego sets.

Pitfall69

madforLEGO said:

What is wierd is the Black Pearl price really dropped from before Christmas..
I guess everyone that may have gotten one for Christmas is now listing it on eBay or something...
The other one that surprises me a bit is the IF dipping below 300 lately.

The IF will go back up. There were tons of sales and clearance prices on the Black Pearl not so much on Queen Anne's Revenge. To get my average prices on a set I delete the outrageously high and low sales and just average out the rest. I'll have to come up with my personal sales for all 3 ships.

RichB

madforLEGO said:

What is wierd is the Black Pearl price really dropped from before Christmas..
I guess everyone that may have gotten one for Christmas is now listing it on eBay or something...
The other one that surprises me a bit is the IF dipping below 300 lately.

The IF has dropped a little over the past month. I think it will quickly rebound though. Just this past week I have noticed a couple going for $295-310 on ebay USA. I'm a firm believer that the IF will be $330+ by summer all day long.

Pitfall69

I just received my Winter Village Bakeries and one box was pretty beat up. I suppose this is one drawback of buying a set with no other sets in stock to replace the damaged box with :(

FatMatt

Well, since Amazon raised the price back to rrp on IS, it has been moving much slower. Still 285 left.

m4tty

what happens if i order a IS from amazon.com as im from the uk and the uk amazon want loads more for them will they post to the uk and will o have to pay any extra

FatMatt

^I understand that VAT is added when you checkout at Amazon, so your cart should show the total amount at checkout. This does not mean you will not be charged anything additionally by your local customs or whatnot, though others from the UK have reported that they have never had to pay additional VAT or whatnot when ordering from Amazon(US). Refer to the thread on Amazon shipping to the UK and you should find your answer.

mathew

LegobrandonCP said:

Perhaps there will be an even better spaceship in the future.

Depends what you mean by better. The US shuttle program is now moth balled so there probably won't be another Shuttle Expedition style kit. That makes it all the more collectable.

LegoFanTexas

^ And given current US policies, I don't see another space program worth getting excited about for the next generation either.

:(

Shame, rather than spending a trillion dollars on the banks, why didn't we just use that money to build a permanent moon base and a mission to Mars? I have no doubt a trillion dollars would do both things.

itsnotme

Not to pile on @legofantexas (I'm actually team LFT) I must point out that the government (taxpayers) has made a profit on the "bailout" and averted a depression. That money did not disappear. People love to bash it, but it worked. Sorry OT.

Billybrown

LegoFanTexas said:

^ And given current US policies, I don't see another space program worth getting excited about for the next generation either.

:(

Shame, rather than spending a trillion dollars on the banks, why didn't we just use that money to build a permanent moon base and a mission to Mars? I have no doubt a trillion dollars would do both things.

The government would have been wise to have invested in the entire stocks of 10231's and resold the lot. It would have improved global economy ;-)

Disclaimer: billybrown is a fictional based character and any resemblance is purely coincidental. Any comments are to be taken as being subjective and therefore of the opinion of billybrown. Prices can go up and down and therefore you purchase at your own risk"

Pitfall69

How much of it was borrowed from China and Japan? OK. I'm done.

They have made tons of space shuttle sets over the years. Who knows, they might make another even though they are currently on the shelf. Lego has already redesigned the Sopwith Camel. Who knows???

Pitfall69

^Speaking of that. I would love if Lego would introduce a line of UCS aircraft. That would be awesome.

Farmer_John

I would like to see a new "red baron" #10024 plane to go with the new Sopwith. Either will do extremely well once EOL'd.

Pitfall69

^This

I understand that Lego has a policy about producing military sets, but those 3 sets break that policy. The aircraft doesn't exactly have to be military the Spirit of St. Louis would be a great example.

jturnbull65

doriansdad said:

Well if the guy had something of use to offer it would be ok. So far I have not heard a single prediction about a discontinuing set or aftermarket price from him. He should start his own "haters gonna hate" thread and dump on LFT and others over there. I have been trying to find an ignore button to no avail

I realize that this discussion is titled "Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value", but it has also served as the general reselling thread for over a year. Every point that I've been discussing thus far has been about reselling, and the same can not be said about a dozen different topics that have been discussed here previously with no complaints.

There is currently no shortage of the predictions and advice that you seem to be after in this thread. There likely won't be a shortage in the future. But bad advice is worse than no advice, and what seems to be lacking is a healthy dose of skepticism to caution against or at least temper profit expectations, particularly when it was the type of numbers and bullishness that prompted me to post. And that is what I chose to contribute.

I said it then, and I'll repeat it now: the fact that so few acknowledged my caution and most were fighting tooth and nail to either defend LFT's position or LFT himself, despite my never having attacked him personally, lends credence to my suggestion that too many are just accepting opinions as fact or are not maintaining positions where they can view things objectively.

Sure each person is ultimately responsible for how they use the opinions, but as I said earlier, those offering advice still bear some responsibility to not misrepresent information or exaggerate. Was anyone going to rush out and spend six figures on a set because LFT said there were some worthy of that level of investment for him? Probably not. But people might have still overextended themselves because of it. Not long after that post, someone mentioned waiting until payday to buy two more of a set for investment purposes. Now, I don't know the exact particulars of that person's financial situation, but I dare say that there are probably better uses of month to month income, or at least would want to make sure they only invested after careful consideration separated from the frenzied exuberance in this thread.

FatMatt

I say they just go all out with a F-14, F-16, and SR-71.....maybe even a spy drone. A Blue Angel would be pretty cool as well. Actually the list is endless. Unfortunately, none will ever be done. A whole well-done military theme would actually probably top my list of best sets. Some German Tiger's and Panzer's:)

mathew

LegoFanTexas said:

^ And given current US policies, I don't see another space program worth getting excited about for the next generation either.

:(

Shame, rather than spending a trillion dollars on the banks, why didn't we just use that money to build a permanent moon base and a mission to Mars? I have no doubt a trillion dollars would do both things.

As much as I admire the history of NASA, the future of space travel will be mostly funded privately. I don't have a problem with this. I think we need to fix the problems here on earth before we invest it in going to Mars. Mars unfortunately appears to be desolate of life. I truly believe there is life out there, but we'll need a better form of space travel than rockets to ever get beyond our solar system.

brickupdate

Can I just say that I love the odd places that this thread goes. We reached a new milestone with the phrase asking for a "permanent moon base" in the real world.

THIS is why I check into Brickset like 3 dozen times per day. Thanks all.

Basta

@jturnbull65 I wasn't going to comment anymore on this, but I will :)

The reason so few of us may not have acknowledged your caution is that we don't agree with it, it's not that we all worship LFT and dare not to say a bad word against him. I understand your concern and can even see why you may have formed that opinion, but I just don't share it, simple as that.

Lastly as far as people over extending them self on Lego, well I would imaging it happens to alot more people on this forum then is acknowledged, and once again it's good to know that you are showing concern for others but it's not really something you or anyone else should feel responsible for, it's up to individuals to take responsibility for their own actions.

I hope we can all move on now. No need to make things personal or keep going around in circles.

Pitfall69

It seems we all love chasing our tails :)

The great thing about over indulging in Lego is that...well...its Lego!!! I personally don't think anyone could lose money on a Lego set. Worst case scenario is that you break even on a sale after fees and shipping. The only thing you have lost is your time. Yes, you could have invested that money into something else, but if that was the case, you would have done that in the first place.

madforLEGO

I do not think it is a matter of circles, squares or rectangle.. Most people simply do not care about this apparent grudge match other than one or two people that cannot seem to let it go for whatever reason.
This is not a legislative body, it is a discussion of a plastic toy.

Back on topic:
I think the SE should do well. I think that many people were caught off guard when it was discontinued, and This may be the best time to sell them, with most of the press regarding the retirement and movement of the remaining shuttles to museums. Then again it may be people going to museums that may keep it in demand.

I just cannot see buying another IS if it is at RRP, now I was lucky enough to get a couple at a decent sale price which is why I can afford to say that.. I am surprised that people can still see the number left in the cart too. I tried the trick and it came back saying 1 was available.. again you just really need to take the Amazon numbers with a grain of salt.
Im also still thinking about buying another FB for 119 at Amazon, just cannot stand letting sit in my cart for 119 and not buying it:-)

pharmjod

itsnotme said:

I must point out that the government (taxpayers) has made a profit on the "bailout"

If you can actually cite real world evidence of this that isn't some government spun data I would LOVE to see that. Considering we had to borrow our butts off just to fund the "bailout" and are continuing to have to borrow our butts off just to function on a daily basis, I'm calling BS on this comment. A depression may have been avoided but at what cost? China continues to own us and we have a government that can't/won't stop spending money it doesn't have (which is what put us in the position to need a "bailout" in the first place). People love to bash it for a reason. It was a terrible idea then, and is a terrible idea now.

doriansdad

I am thinking $400 for IS? At $195 it makes sense, at $260 not so much.

Pitfall69

^We shall see.

Pitfall69

This is interesting though. The Imperial Flagship (imo the best ship Lego ever produced) could be had for $140 before it sold out and copies were being sold for $400 less than 6 months after EOL. The Imperial Shuttle (imo one of the better Star Wars UCS sets) is $70 USD more RRP than the IF. What will be the high on this set? Why stop at $400?

madforLEGO

I would say the IS should hit 400, it is more iconic than the republic gunship and dropship set, but the wildcard will be how many are packing these away which will most likely delay its climb.

itsnotme

pharmjod said:

itsnotme said:

I must point out that the government (taxpayers) has made a profit on the "bailout"

If you can actually cite real world evidence of this that isn't some government spun data I would LOVE to see that. Considering we had to borrow our butts off just to fund the "bailout" and are continuing to have to borrow our butts off just to function on a daily basis, I'm calling BS on this comment. A depression may have been avoided but at what cost? China continues to own us and we have a government that can't/won't stop spending money it doesn't have (which is what put us in the position to need a "bailout" in the first place). People love to bash it for a reason. It was a terrible idea then, and is a terrible idea now.

I respect your opinion and can't muster the energy to reply with a deeply researched thesis (and I'm sure no one here wants to see that). I'd rather just enjoy this Minnesota-Green Bay game.

I agree that borrowing is out of control. But we'd have to borrow all the same to fund a moon base, which was the alternative in question. If I learned anything from this forum recently, it's not to belabor a point (and this one is OT!), so I'll leave it at that.

momof2boys99

^ It is a very nice set....but a very hard set to have a nice box for. Yikes!!!

LegoFanTexas

mathew said:

As much as I admire the history of NASA, the future of space travel will be mostly funded privately. I don't have a problem with this. I think we need to fix the problems here on earth before we invest it in going to Mars. Mars unfortunately appears to be desolate of life. I truly believe there is life out there, but we'll need a better form of space travel than rockets to ever get beyond our solar system.

It is a chicken and egg problem. We'll never get that better system of space travel if we don't invest in current technology and building better systems. It isn't going to just appear one day.

So to do that, we have to accept that we have to take it one step at a time. Maybe... one small step... then one giant leap...

:)

Just saying... :)

Farmer_John

Pitfall69 said:

This is interesting though. The Imperial Flagship (imo the best ship Lego ever produced) could be had for $140 before it sold out and copies were being sold for $400 less than 6 months after EOL. The Imperial Shuttle (imo one of the better Star Wars UCS sets) is $70 USD more RRP than the IF. What will be the high on this set? Why stop at $400?

I agree with your opinion that the IF is the best of the best! If I remember correctly, those of us in TN were able to grab it for less than $130 through S@H before it EOL'd. What a build!

I haven't built the IS yet, so can't really provide a personal opinion there. However, the UCS is highly regarded by many and I can see it easily going over $400 at some point (probably well over $500 in a couple years).

To be honest, I'm starting to get burned out on the SW theme. It could be due to the fact that my kids got the latest season of Clone Wars for Christmas and it's so repetitive...

LegoFanTexas

itsnotme said:

I agree that borrowing is out of control. But we'd have to borrow all the same to fund a moon base, which was the alternative in question.

I agree completely, we need to stop spending money we don't have.

I'm simply saying that if the borrowing was unstoppable, that if it HAS to be done (for whatever reason), I'd rather spend it on a moon base than to bail out the banks, GM, and AIG.

Just my opinion. I understand why it was done, I understand the benefits and drawbacks, I know that there would have been a heavy price to be paid for not doing it.

I'm simply saying that if we had spent the money on a moon base... Well... we'd at least have something to show for all that, rather than the same old banks which are just as bad today as they were 4 years ago...

Oh well...

So... Um, should I buy more DS since it is 10% off at Amazon? It must be going any day now, right? :)

madforLEGO

I guess I have been fortunately to get a bunch of sets of IS in good boxes, of course this is before the recent rash of huge boxes being demolished.

mathew

LegoFanTexas said:

mathew said:

As much as I admire the history of NASA, the future of space travel will be mostly funded privately. I don't have a problem with this. I think we need to fix the problems here on earth before we invest it in going to Mars. Mars unfortunately appears to be desolate of life. I truly believe there is life out there, but we'll need a better form of space travel than rockets to ever get beyond our solar system.

It is a chicken and egg problem. We'll never get that better system of space travel if we don't invest in current technology and building better systems. It isn't going to just appear one day.

So to do that, we have to accept that we have to take it one step at a time. Maybe... one small step... then one giant leap...

:)

Just saying... :)

With long distance space travel it doesn't quite work that way. We're talking light years separating us from other potential life forms. It's going to take warp speed, hyper drive etc. to get us there. That or someone will have to volunteer their brain to be put on ice for the next voyager mission. It's exciting to dream about, but in no way practical for today's world. Perhaps our great-great-great grand children can pursue it with some new form of technology that we are not currently aware of. Meanwhile our current generation can continue being controlled by weapons of mass murder, god, DS retiring and upholding the second amendment ; )

Pitfall69

^When I'm at a restaurant I order a chicken and an egg and see what comes first :)

I suppose the talk of space travel is relative to whether SE will do well after EOL and whether they might make another in the future.

The IS, while all white and full of Technic pieces is not a great build, when finished it is quite elegant when displayed.

I am also kind of burned out on Star Wars and that is why I'm looking forward to New movie releases and possibly more Expanded Universe sets.

pharmjod

I'm pretty fried on Star Wars as well. At this point I'm just picking up the iconic play sets for my kids when they get older. Original trilogy only :)

mathew

Pitfall69 said:

I am also kind of burned out on Star Wars and that is why I'm looking forward to New movie releases and possibly more Expanded Universe sets.

Good observation. I've been burned out on Star Wars, since, well the prequels. I could care less about the X-Wing, Tie Fighter or Millennium Falcon. Most of the prequel vehicles don't do much for me (except for that drop ship thing). I did pick up the Sith Fury Infiltrator because it's a cool looking ship (and I got a good deal). The Imperial Shuttle is a bit different though. First, its design is different from most of the rest of Star Wars ships in that it's not gray and/or black. It's sleek and modern. It could almost belong in the Star Trek or 2001 universe. I also got a pretty good deal on one. I think it will do ok in the resale market, but it may not be gang busters because it already has a high initial price tag and the cats out of the bag regarding reselling. It will be interesting if it makes a re-appearance in the upcoming sequels.

madforLEGO

I think SW is getting a bit stale.. at least relying too heavily on Clone Wars IMO.
At least Jabba's Palace is out along with the Rancor. Now if they would just redo some sets sorely missing like Cantina, Cloud City, and Jengo Fett (of the few Prequel sets Id buy)

y2josh

I know we like to kid around about the Death Star, but has anyone legitimately considered that the pendulum may have swung the other way on this one? At this point, wouldn't 10188 ACTUALLY retiring be an honest surprise? Additionally, we say 'everyone and their brother' is hording these, but is it really a set that Joe Average can sit on for years? It's a heavy investment, and it takes up a lot of space. I'm just curious to see what others think, as even with all the talk of it being a dead investment at this point, I still maintain that it will hit $600 nearly immediately upon EOL.

mathew

^ A Cantina set would be great. The problem is that to do it right would involve a ton of minifigs and a sizable amount of bricks. I mean it could be done in a way like Mines of Moria with just a few walls and tables, but with it being Star Wars it would be priced at at least $120 USD if not more.

Renny

Farmer_John said:

I would like to see a new "red baron" #10024 plane to go with the new Sopwith. Either will do extremely well once EOL'd.

With a Snoopy mini figure please ;)

LegoFanTexas

mathew said:

With long distance space travel it doesn't quite work that way.

Just consider... December 1903, watching Orville and Wilber Wright flying the first airplane, had someone then said that within a person's lifetime man would walk on the moon... that person would have been laughed at. (perhaps commited!)

Warp drive, or whatever ends up being faster than light drive, is hard and impossible, right up until it isn't.

How long was it between the time that fission was even discovered, and the first atomic bomb was exploded? Fission wasn't even known, until 1938. It only took 7 years between that, and the first atomic bomb explosion.

Once the "secret" is found for FTL travel, it will come quickly.

Pitfall69

"It will be interesting if it makes a re-appearance in the upcoming sequels."

"It's an older code, but it checks out"

Farmer_John

Star Wars (the original trilogy) was and is a classic. When you hear people quoting lines from SW movies, it's always the original trilogy (otherwise, nobody would know what they were talking about). I do like many of the UCS sets and any large sets from the original series.

My problem with today's movies (HP (which I've only seen snippets of), Clone Wars, the SW prequel, etc.) is the complete lack of creativity. What I mean by that is every time there is a problem, there is always a perfect antidote to get out of the situation. HP always has the perfect spell to cast, the jedi knights are always cocky even when they are in peril, yada, yada, yada. It works well the first movie or two; however, repeating the same theme for 6+ movies is not interesting. My kids like clone wars because they (kids) want predictability...they also like the SW sets from all the SW movies and clone wars. And I guess that's the point anyway, isn't it...

All that said, resellers are primarily adults and the SW "burnout" might actually hurt the reselling of these latest SW sets (at least the non-classic sets). I believe the DS, IS, R2D2, MF, X-Wing, Y-Wing, ISD, Sand Crawler, Jabba Hut, etc. should do much better in the after market than these odd new SW ships that are being released.