Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

LegobrandonCP

When S@H lists a product as "call to check availability", are they teasing us or do they actually have stock in the back, but not enough to set the product page as "in stock"?

Tevans333

jturnbull65 said:

Pitfall69 said:

BTW...I love inane Star Wars quotes. So, everyone, please don't stop even if the most pompous of us find it vacuous. Ahhh, love my word of the day toilet paper :)

That's the difference. I did not ask anyone to stop the quotes and have no issue if it litters the discussion. On the other hand, several people invoked the love of god asking me to stop talking about reselling in a reselling thread.

Yup, that was me. I skip over your excruciatingly boring posts, but if I remember correctly, your original posts began as a personal attack on another member. That's what I was invoking the love of god.

Pitfall69

doriansdad said:

Pitfall69 said:

The DA I ordered from Amazon showed up today in great condition :) What a great set. Although not very accurate.

This is one of my fave sets of all time. I am a huge Potter fan so maybe I am a little biased. I know I have spent a small fortune collecting older HP sets and know fans will go nuts for 10217 and 4842.

Well...the crazy thing is that I have NEVER seen one Harry Potter film. I missed out on some sets here and there like the Drumstrang Ship, The Shrieking Shack among others. I made a decision that since I never saw the movies and don't have the complete collection (I am a completist) that I was going to sell my entire collection. Poof!!! Most of it is gone now and there's no going back. I'm just hanging on to a few of the sets I have left until the right time comes to sell them.

Pitfall69

LegobrandonCP said:

When S@H lists a product as "call to check availability", are they teasing us or do they actually have stock in the back, but not enough to set the product page as "in stock"?

It is hit or miss. I called them the other day for the Winter Village Bakery and they sold me 3. The next day they shipped 3 out. The Post Office went from Sold Out to "call to check availability" the same night. Some people called on the Bakery to find out it was gone then bought some Post Offices.

legoprods

prevere said:

I thought about parting out a DA or two. But I just can't do it.

I did for a couple. It is a beautifully interesting set when parting it out :)

LegobrandonCP

Just called S@H. At first the nice lady told me they are temporarily out of stock and will have more SE's within 30 days. And then she looked into it a bit further and told me they have stopped production of these sets.

I was told that the only reason it was labeled "call to check for availability" is because they had some units left in the warehouse this morning.

madforLEGO

^-- Sorry, I was hoping it would help, but if that message was up since this morning then Im guessing someone probably jumped in pretty quick and bought them

LegobrandonCP

madforLEGO said:

^-- Sorry, I was hoping it would help, but if that message was up since this morning then Im guessing someone probably jumped in pretty quick and bought them

No need to apologize! Although I'm quite bummed I didn't purchase this set when I had the time to, LEGO sets come and go. There will always be new releases. Perhaps there will be an even better spaceship in the future.

I'm sure I'll find one near MSRP sooner or later.

RichB

I just tried to order DA's from Lego S@H U.S. and they told me they are completely sold out web though it still says call to check availability on their website.

RichB

Even though*

kim43235

I have seen SE comes back in stock at amazon couple of times today. I was like Minecraft. It's gone pretty fast.

jturnbull65

Pacific493 said:

I've said what I had to say and, to be honest, don't feel like devoting more time to this. I could continue to beat this horse, but I have a trial resuming next week and so need to turn my attention to my dead horse beating endeavors that actually pay my bills. I'll end by summarizing my overarching point...based on my experience, I don't think LFT's claim was far-fetched, but I do think that your argument to the contrary based on data that discounted possible sales through Amazon was silly.

So, to paraphrase your summary:

Given that it's impossible to know for certain the volume a seller could do on Amazon:

1) it is not silly for LFT to say with certainty that he could have moved 2500 sets at double MSRP on Amazon in one week

2) it is silly for me to say that LFT's claim is more boastful than realistic, and proceed to show that 2500 sets did not move in two entire months on eBay while demonstrating that Amazon's volume is unlikely to be 10x that of eBay by using a myriad of known metrics

Solid logic. Good luck with arguing your trial! And if that doesn't work out well, at least you can just ramp up your Amazon battlepack operation to move tens of thousands of units.

momof2boys99

Pitfall69 said:

BTW...I love inane Star Wars quotes. So, everyone, please don't stop even if the most pompous of us find it vacuous. Ahhh, love my word of the day toilet paper :)

O.k.....I came to this board to escape movie quotes. It is one of those things that attracted me to my husband 17 years ago. I thought it was cute......well all these years later....all I hear are movie quotes. My kids and him. They quote: "Star Wars", "What About Bob?", "Dumb and Dumber", "Lord of the Rings", "Spongebob" cartoons....ect. The only one I don't mind is "Elf". It is not just them.....friends and his brother join in too. It is funny to watch them all, but it goes so fast I am just left confused and laughing at them laughing. I know you guys are having fun. I just never thought this would turn into a movie quote group. I should tell my husband to join. He would fit right in with you guys. Have fun!!

momof2boys99

Pitfall69 said:

^Hopefully he is satisfied. Trolling for 19 months just just pounce on LFT had to be worth it. We shall now return to our scheduled programing.

The DA I ordered from Amazon showed up today in great condition :) What a great set. Although not very accurate.

It seemed like him and LFT were o.k. pages back. I like LFT...but can't @JTurnBull65 talk too? It seems like everyone is pouncing on him. Why don't people calm down and see what he says. Right now he is in a 2 way discussion, but I like to hear all sides.I know people that will argue forever to make a point...but it does not make them a horrible person....maybe just passionate about their point. He might have a lot to offer....but I think he has been told to be quiet. This isn't a board of 10 people running the show is it? Can't everyone be heard? That is how we learn. I am sure everyone has hurt peoples feelings at times....but we are all adults. Just my 2 cents.

JamesJT

New 8421 are at nearly $1000, good used ones at $400, new 8053 have just reached $200. Now could be a good time to clear out old stock as I think 42009 (when it arrives in summer) will hit these sets hard. I bet 8110 will be cheap mid year too.

Pacific493

jturnbull65 said:

So, to paraphrase your summary:

Given that it's impossible to know for certain the volume a seller could do on Amazon:

1) it is not silly for LFT to say with certainty that he could have moved 2500 sets at double MSRP on Amazon in one week

2) it is silly for me to say that LFT's claim is more boastful than realistic, and proceed to show that 2500 sets did not move in two entire months on eBay while demonstrating that Amazon's volume is unlikely to be 10x that of eBay by using a myriad of known metrics

Solid logic. Good luck with arguing your trial! And if that doesn't work out well, at least you can just ramp up your Amazon battlepack operation to move tens of thousands of units.

Indeed, but I would point out that the "metrics" you have relied on remain quite attenuated from the point that you were trying to prove.

Thanks for your well wishes. The trial is going quite well so far, but there are a lot of variables at play. Regardless of the outcome, I'm unlikely to ramp up my sale of battlepacks to the level you suggest since I don't have that much capital to invest and would have a hard time buying tens of thousands of units at a price that would make resale profitable. Given that you've apparently bought and sold more Lego than anyone else on this board, you'll have to let me in on your buying secrets sometime.

doriansdad

momof2boys99 said:

It seemed like him and LFT were o.k. pages back. I like LFT...but can't @JTurnBull65 talk too? It seems like everyone is pouncing on him. Why don't people calm down and see what he says. Right now he is in a 2 way discussion, but I like to hear all sides.I know people that will argue forever to make a point...but it does not make them a horrible person....maybe just passionate about their point. He might have a lot to offer....but I think he has been told to be quiet. This isn't a board of 10 people running the show is it? Can't everyone be heard? That is how we learn. I am sure everyone has hurt peoples feelings at times....but we are all adults. Just my 2 cents.

Well if the guy had something of use to offer it would be ok. So far I have not heard a single prediction about a discontinuing set or aftermarket price from him. He should start his own "haters gonna hate" thread and dump on LFT and others over there. I have been trying to find an ignore button to no avail :(

smellyworm

Can someone give me the cliff notes version of this dumb stuff? Dont really have time to form an opinion because its just too long. Thanks

cloaked7

^ Cliff Notes. :-) I think this is one of those 'you had to be there' situations. I don't think Cliff Notes would be very helpful.

Yodalicious

smellyworm said:

Can someone give me the cliff notes version of this dumb stuff? Dont really have time to form an opinion because its just too long. Thanks

Someone said something. Someone disagreed. And then it went on...and on...and on. So basically what happens on almost every message board everywhere ever.

doriansdad

Just a heads up check your email for a free listing and no final value fee for one item on ebay. By invitation only. Starts 1/6.

Dad

smellyworm said:

Can someone give me the cliff notes version of this dumb stuff? Dont really have time to form an opinion because its just too long. Thanks</blockquote

Someone has an opinion, someone disagrees. Both are subjective.

But what I find interesting is how you have formed an opinion that it is dumb when you, and I quote ' Don't really have the time to form an opinion'
From reading the participants posts I can assure you that they are all better educated than myself, and from reading yours, I'd suggest they're better educated than you too.

Why be so disrespectful to call it dumb when you can't even be bothered to read it all, yet you find the time to comment on it?

nkx1

^^Bummer, right after I sold an expensive laptop lol.

Is anyone surprised Diagon Alley hasn't ascended in price more than $50 over retail yet? Maybe it's too early still (ie too much aftermarket supply) for any significant gains yet.

LegoFanTexas

.

Yodalicious said:

Someone said something. Someone disagreed. And then it went on...and on...and on. So basically what happens on almost every message board everywhere ever.

Ha! Now that is funny, and very accurate too!

Ahh, so does anyone think DS will retire soon? ;-)

Brickarmor

For what it's worth, I just left Target and they have Monster Fighters incorprorated into the new reset with Chima, TMNT, etc etc. Looks like at least one more quarter.

Yodalicious

^There are 3 certainties - death, taxes, and DS never retiring.

doriansdad

nkx1 said:

^^Bummer, right after I sold an expensive laptop lol.

Is anyone surprised Diagon Alley hasn't ascended in price more than $50 over retail yet? Maybe it's too early still (ie too much aftermarket supply) for any significant gains yet.

Looking at the offers on bricklink the price will hit $200 soon enroute to $250, and a very short hop to $300 after that. Give it 6 months. I will let mine go starting at $300.

LegoFanTexas

^ Yea, that...

It has been gone, what... a week? Give it time...

There are still sellers out there with hundreds of copies, they have to burn through their stocks before it will move higher.

I predict $300 on Bricklink by Christmas. *

*Disclaimer - above statements cannot be used for invenstment purposes, all statements are just opinions, not to be held against the poster in any way, shape, or form. :)

Pitfall69

^This is one of these sets I didn't buy a lot of because I was getting rid of all my Harry Potter. This set has great value. It's like a more expensive version of MMV.

doriansdad

Looking at ebay UK prices they are close to $300 USD right now. The gap should shrink rapidly in the US markets. In this game it really behooves you to buy below retail when possible to give yourself the best chance....10217 was easily available for $100 or less over the past 3 months if you did your homework.

Pitfall69

Does anyone think that the Harry Potter franchise is completely dead or is there a chance that there will be more books and more movies?

Bandit

^ I bet it's closer to $400 by then...

prevere

doriansdad said:

Looking at ebay UK prices they are close to $300 USD right now. The gap should shrink rapidly in the US markets. In this game it really behooves you to buy below retail when possible to give yourself the best chance....10217 was easily available for $100 or less over the past 3 months if you did your homework.

When exactly was DA easily available for $100? Just curious. If you count TRU BOGO - that usually wasn't included or gone in seconds.

Farmer_John

Pitfall69 said:

Well...the crazy thing is that I have NEVER seen one Harry Potter film. I missed out on some sets here and there like the Drumstrang Ship, The Shrieking Shack among others. I made a decision that since I never saw the movies and don't have the complete collection (I am a completist) that I was going to sell my entire collection. Poof!!! Most of it is gone now and there's no going back. I'm just hanging on to a few of the sets I have left until the right time comes to sell them.

I'm with you...my family has not seen the films either. I purchased some HP specifically to sell at some point after EOL since they seem to do okay in the after market. I was able to grab a single HP Train, which I plan to keep because I like Lego trains. Everything else will go at some point.

Bandit

^ I got plenty of DAs via tru/fao bogos over the course of the year. The last one a month ago, and it lasted quite awhile that day...

dougts

^ which is $112.50 each. Best generally available price on this item, but quite a bit more than $100

doriansdad

prevere said:

When exactly was DA easily available for $100? Just curious. If you count TRU BOGO - that usually wasn't included or gone in seconds.

Walmart had them for $100 after discover cashback and price adjustment this fall. S@H had them for $135 less 5% discover cashback less 5% VIP points less set 3300014 (well until TLG started cancelling 3300014 on the last days of the sale lol).

smellyworm

Dad said:

smellyworm said:

Can someone give me the cliff notes version of this dumb stuff? Dont really have time to form an opinion because its just too long. Thanks

What online argument has ever had any merit? So yes its dumb exactly as I thought. Sorry you took offense to my comment.

Farmer_John

I'm wondering which will perform better EOL: PotC or HP. I have many more PotC sets because I was more interested in the theme and HP has already been released once. However, there is a much better chance that PotC will be re-released with future movie releases. If they do another release of PotC in the future, I would love to see a $300-400 RRP ship released by TLG (twice the size of the BP/QAR). Dreaming here, but it would be an awesome build!

Anyway, back to the original question...PotC or HP?

gmpirate

^ So now all arguments are just dumb and pointless? We should also just agree to disagree and not discuss otherwise? How productive.

Some arguments may go on too long but that doesn't mean they can't be beneficial.

prevere

doriansdad said:

prevere said:

When exactly was DA easily available for $100? Just curious. If you count TRU BOGO - that usually wasn't included or gone in seconds.

Walmart had them for $100 after discover cashback and price adjustment this fall. S@H had them for $135 less 5% discover cashback less 5% VIP points less set 3300014 (well until TLG started cancelling 3300014 on the last days of the sale lol).

Right Wal-Mart. I never seem to check their online stuff. They've really stepped up their game with Amazon this year I think. Appreciate the feedback.

Bandit

dougts said:

^ which is $112.50 each. Best generally available price on this item, but quite a bit more than $100

Actually, this last time around FAO had that $25 coupon, so that brought them down to just about $100. :) I think you had to call them to get that to work though, IIRC, because their website wouldn't let you do the DA bogo.

Pitfall69

doriansdad said:

prevere said:

When exactly was DA easily available for $100? Just curious. If you count TRU BOGO - that usually wasn't included or gone in seconds.

Walmart had them for $100 after discover cashback and price adjustment this fall. S@H had them for $135 less 5% discover cashback less 5% VIP points less set 3300014 (well until TLG started cancelling 3300014 on the last days of the sale lol).

Interesting. I guess when we talk about prices we usually consider prices that are available to everyone. Special cash back awards aren't had by everyone. I also don't consider VIP points or special giveaways as discounts.

Dad

#10217 is still selling for £180 to £200 in the UK. Hasn't slumped after Christmas.

cloaked7

Do you find it ironic that a person wants the cliff notes on a discussion while at the same time calling it 'dumb stuff'?

That is the most stupid toy I've ever seen. I'm sure glad I wasn't stupid enough to buy it. Errr... may I play with it for a few minutes? I still think it's stupid, just curious. Yeah, that's it. Just curious. And, I will NOT have any fun while playing with it! Oh please, please, please! May I play with that stupid toy!

doriansdad

Walmart had the best sale of 2012 by far. Ran for around 1 week, stock popping in and out. Amazon price matched the original walmart discounts but never the phantom sold out prices - walmart customer service was happy to. Going forward these are the sales to watch for as S@H doesn't look like they are going to throw us a bone any longer.

gmpirate

^ Aye, that one Walmart week was awesome. Even bit on another DS :P

madforLEGO

Dad said:

smellyworm said:

Can someone give me the cliff notes version of this dumb stuff? Dont really have time to form an opinion because its just too long. Thanks

No, what is the dumb part is that both sides will spend 4-5 pages and 1 week trying to explain how their argument is right, and then realize that then almost everyone is pretty much set in their opinions and nothing will change. Then once the dust settles, someone new to the argument or has not paid attention to the thread for 60 messages will chime in and kick up all the dust (which I am hoping I am not doing now).
I think it is safe to say that everyone's opinion on this forum is just that, an OPINION. It is to be taken with a grain of salt as well. You never know who is lying, has a mental issue, or is providing false information (either knowingly or unknowingly) vs those telling the truth. The truth is 'Who Cares?' after the first point-counterpoint anyway, other than people like to argue? I'm not immune to this, but have at least realized it recently and try to curb it before it gets WAY out of hand

Sorry for the rant, Ill get off my soapbox and back on topic.
I see that TRU.com (not sure about the stores) still has the 8043 Technic Excavator online and that it is 199.99 now and not the 209.99 it was before. So if anyone has a ton of rewards points and wants to pull the trigger Id say do it soon.

Pacific493

Farmer_John said:

I'm wondering which will perform better EOL: PotC or HP. I have many more PotC sets because I was more interested in the theme and HP has already been released once. However, there is a much better chance that PotC will be re-released with future movie releases. If they do another release of PotC in the future, I would love to see a $300-400 RRP ship released by TLG (twice the size of the BP/QAR). Dreaming here, but it would be an awesome build!

Anyway, back to the original question...PotC or HP?

In the near term, I think that HP will probably perform better. Long term...who knows? If HP has come to a full and final end, but PotC keeps going, PotC could do better.

BuriedinBricks

I really think the best money for PotC is in the ships. The BP and QAR have crossover appeal for pirate fans, even if they didn't love the movies all that much. I was not that interested in most of the other sets and have few regrets about not grabbing most of them on clearance last summer.