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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367
    ^Thanks. I wanted one to hold back. It's a great set.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Cheers Kim.....done and done.
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    ^^^ Apparently they only had 8 copies and now all sold out :(
  • momof2boys99momof2boys99 Member Posts: 322
    prevere said:

    leego76 said:

    Anyone have any thoughts on the 2012 super heroes line up? Due for EOL soon? The two face chase set is getting hard to find in the wild in the UK. Any sets in particular that stand out? Its all about the figs as I see it.

    Note: It is understood that set values may go up or down and comments will not be used in a court of law..

    I wanted to buy up retail copies of Two-Face for $50, but hesitated when I noticed that [email protected] plans to be in stock again later this month. So it'll be around for some of 2013 at least.

    That said. This set is now in year 2, so I plan to buy a few per month, and not wait for it to just vanish. In the past, I would have waited for BF or retail clearance late in the year. But as it stands now, that strategy is highly risky.

    I have been sorta doing what you are doing. I am just picking up a few sets here and there. I have been doing it since they came out which is nice as you can usually find all sets on sale at some point before they go EOL. I like doing things that way. I am prepared if they go and if they don't it is o.k. too.
  • momof2boys99momof2boys99 Member Posts: 322
    Lego.com has "call to check for availability on"the Zombies". I just got off the phone. I am on a waiting list. I don't know if I will ever see them...but just thought I would share in case anyone else is looking to purchase a little brick Zombie friend.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    ^Thanks for the info. I regret parting out a bunch of the Zombies sets when Target had them on sale. I figured I've have more time to stock up on sealed ones. :(
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    edited January 2013
    ^^ Thanks. I just called and the person told me it was sold out.

    That is 0 for 2 for me today :( Probably not the best day for me to buy any lottery tickets ;)
  • momof2boys99momof2boys99 Member Posts: 322
    @dragonhawk....keep your chin up....you know what they say the 3rd times a charm. :0)
  • kim43235kim43235 Member Posts: 165
    Looks like [email protected] cancelled Shuttle Expedition orders. Did any get cancellations? Sorry about that. I hate [email protected] Then burned me last time when I order three and only shipped one.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ I was hoping the SE would be on discount after Christmas like the EN was last year. But, as we all saw, there wasn't much of anything worth getting on sale then. Definitely not the SE. I was hoping to get several more copies then to add to the few I have. If I had know it would have been like it was I would have picked up several more on Amazon or TRU earlier in the year. Oh well, win some, lose some. :-)
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    SE is call to check availability at [email protected]
  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439
    prevere said:


    Correct. Sorry. I was talking about eBay and the U.S. for WTS. But that said, with conversion we're talking about $100-$110 in USD for EU anyways, right?

    I don't get what you mean. 1 USD in the USA = 1 USD in EU.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    kim43235 said:

    Looks like [email protected] cancelled Shuttle Expedition orders. Did any get cancellations? Sorry about that. I hate [email protected] Then burned me last time when I order three and only shipped one.

    My orders are not cancelled...yet lol.

    Don't see how they can cancel an ebay order tho. They left me +ve feedback...that's all I have right now.

  • hobbynuthobbynut Member Posts: 3
    ToysRus on ebay has done it to me before... They refunded the money within a few hours after already having left + feedback.
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367
    kim43235 said:

    Looks like [email protected] cancelled Shuttle Expedition orders. Did any get cancellations? Sorry about that. I hate [email protected] Then burned me last time when I order three and only shipped one.

    No notice yet, so I'll see what happens.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,258
    We better be kind and hide this whole thing from LegobrandonCP. He'll sign on later and commence irreversible hair-pulling.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    He is welcome to one of mine if he wants to pay for the shipping...if I ever get them of course.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Just got all cancelled. I wonder what my ebay customers would do if I cancelled orders on them?
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Hardrada said:

    prevere said:


    Correct. Sorry. I was talking about eBay and the U.S. for WTS. But that said, with conversion we're talking about $100-$110 in USD for EU anyways, right?

    I don't get what you mean. 1 USD in the USA = 1 USD in EU.
    Nevermind.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    I don't think any of us can complain too much on the SE. It was readily available for $90 (or less) on Amazon for a really long time. It's always at crunch time that we pounce and then panic.

    It's like riding the surf. Hold it, hold it, paddle, paddle, paddle and go for it!
    pumperx
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    While everyone was worrying about how many FB, MMV, GE etc. to buy SE slipped by without much talk. No reason that anyone who wanted it shouldn't have bought it while it was on sale at Amazon for the last few months.
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367
    Mine just got refunded. Oh well. Worth a shot.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,713
    edited January 2013
    tk79 said:

    Interesting, I thought Amazon was showing quite a bit of stock left for DA earlier today (700+), but now it's out and down to 3rd party sellers.

    Basta said:

    Amazon now only has 374 IS #10212 left.
    I also notice that TRU is now out of MMV #10193

    I think it is safe to say by now, and after numerous other times it has been said that you cannot trust quantities at Amazon any longer..
    For example last night I tried to enter 500 in a cart at two different times and got two vastly different answers..
    Amazon clearly messes with the allowed quantities to thwart people from doing this.
    I think the message here: Is that if you want one, buy one if it is in stock.

    Also According to Amazon DA had the message 'only X left in stock (more on the way)' before it sold out.. not sure if this is true or not, but just throwing it out there.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    edited January 2013
    ^Sometime I think it is correct though, such as the case with IS which has steadily been decreasing in stock. DA just showed 999 for me when I checked it either yesterday or the day before.
    Speaking of IS, it is down 325. May not last through the weekend.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    edited January 2013
    I used two accounts on Amazon for some DAs on Sunday, and I got a nice unfriendly message from them. Other forum members mentioned this as well.

    This was first-time using dual accounts for a specific purchase too. Sheesh. But still glad I did it.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,713
    I picked up a DA on Wednesday, and another yesterday, but once I saw that they were still in stock at LEGO (in US) and that Amazon had that more on the way message, I cancelled the last order of one... hope I did not guess wrong and they are gone for good.
    But more often than naught that quantity cannot be trusted.. IS may be an exception as it is going for good (at least I would be surprised if more came) but I still cannot drive myself to buy for only 8% off...
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    edited January 2013
    momof2boys99 said:

    Lego.com has "call to check for availability on"the Zombies". I just got off the phone. I am on a waiting list. I don't know if I will ever see them...but just thought I would share in case anyone else is looking to purchase a little brick Zombie friend.

    That set just completely vanished in the UK, no warning whatsoever, i remember looking at a couple on sale in Argos thinking they would be available for years to come:(
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    ^Love the Zombies set. I only have one copy. Crazy how that set sold so quickly. I'm still wondering if they might bring back Monster Fighters...at least the sets that did well.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Someone has all the zombie sets hiding in a barn somewhere.
    momof2boys99
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    edited January 2013
    BTW...I love inane Star Wars quotes. So, everyone, please don't stop even if the most pompous of us find it vacuous. Ahhh, love my word of the day toilet paper :)
    Sharifa
  • kim43235kim43235 Member Posts: 165
    I really didn't know SE would EOL now. I bought 4 of them when TRU had BOGO50OFF last year. I regretted it at that time since I see the low price on this set all the time at amazon. And suddenly this. I'm still new, I guess.
  • jturnbull65jturnbull65 Member Posts: 19
    edited January 2013
    Pacific493 said:

    Oh, you have most certainly contorted your argument. For example, you are now saying that your point all along has been that "we have concrete data from two large marketplaces that suggest people simply were not buying the Minecraft sets at the stated price pointat the stated rate." However, none of your previous posts that cited data from Ebay and BL included any references to the prices at which the sets were selling in those fora.

    Oh, really? What's this then?
    jturnbull65 said:

    Actually, the 1200 sets sold in October on eBay and the 900 sets sold on Bricklink over six months had an average price of around $67.

    Pacific493 said:

    My favorite contortion was the one in your last post in which you stated quite authoritatively that when I referenced Amazon, I was specifically referencing Amazon retail and not Amazon marketplace when I had never made any such distinction.

    I also addressed this already:
    jturnbull65 said:

    You mentioned Amazon in the context of selling out which was only Amazon retail and not the marketplace. Amazon marketplace did not sell out of minecraft.

    Furthermore, your mention of Amazon referenced my silly "argument" which was using eBay and bricklink sales volume to demonstrate sets were not moving that briskly for resellers. Grouping Amazon with B&N and Walmart
    as having sold out, I thought, understandably, that you were solely using them to demonstrate volume.

    Had the your statement been more clear in specifying selling on Amazon marketplace there would not have been confusion. Surely you weren't talking about a third party selling on B&N and Walmart, also.

    Once it was clarified that you were including selling on Amazon marketplace, I included that in our debate. That seems to be the difference between you and me. I'm reading, processing, responding, and progressing the discussion, providing data along the way. You seem preoccupied with trying to invalidate the entire discussion, and appear to have forgotten or not read parts of it.
    Pacific493 said:

    The fact is that you based your entire argument on two data points that represent only a slice of the potential sales market. And I don't think that it is unreasonable to assume that the sales traffic on Amazon for a set like that would be many multiples greater on Amazon than it is on Ebay and BL. To go back to my example of the battlepacks that I sold, Brickpicker shows that 143 copies of the snowtrooper battlepack were sold on Ebay between September and November. I sold 1/3 of that amount in 3 days on Amazon and I am in no way, shape, or form a market leading reseller. So if a small reseller like myself is able to sell in 3 days 1/3 the amount that sold in 3 months on Ebay, it stands to reason that the sales potential on Amazon is far greater than you are assuming.

    It's ironic that you are criticizing my use of bricklink and eBay as indicators for sales volume while the only data you have provided is your experience selling battlepacks.

    To recap, I've presented the following to back up my claim that eBay and Amazon volume (and specifically LEGO sales volume) are somewhere between being equivalent to 3x in favor of Amazon:
    - similar web traffic (ranked 5 and 6, with Amazon's being diluted across its retail site, including significant video streaming): http://www.alexa.com/topsites/countries/US
    - numbers of registered users: 100 million for eBay vs 188 million for Amazon
    - number of LEGO listings: empirical, but try it for yourself on any item, eBay will have more

    So here's another approach. Let's look at the latest quarter revenue available, Q3 2012:

    EBAY makes it easy; they provide the revenue numbers from their Marketplace unit as 1.8B (http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20121017006609/en/eBay-Reports-Strong-Quarter-2012-Results)

    Amazon, of course, is a tougher nut to crack. They last provided a revenue breakout for Marketplace in 2010 when it was 32% (http://www.fonerbooks.com/booksale.htm , second to last chart). So any number for 3Q 2012 is going to have to be an educated guess.

    Their 10-Q (http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9MTU5MzUxfENoaWxkSUQ9LTF8VHlwZT0z&t=1) lists "Electronics and other general merchandise" revenue at 8.5B.

    Amazon is tight-lipped about Kindle sales, but everything they have said indicates that it makes up a growing percentage of their revenue number: "fastest-selling ever", "Kindles sales growth has tripled", "Kindle fire is the hottest-selling, most gifted item across all of Amazon" (http://www.pingzine.com/amazon-kindle-fire-hd-7-remains-most-gifted-christmas-item-20901/). But where were we? Oh yeah, I'm just going to ignore all of Amazon's own product and retail growth and continue to assign the 2% year-to-year (4% total) in percentage of Amazon revenue for Marketplace to continue the exercise. So that puts Amazon Marketplace at 36% of 8.5B for a total of 3B.

    1.8B for eBay vs 3B for Amazon. Not even double. Once again, nowhere near the 8-10x volume needed for LFT or the industry crushing numbers you suggest. You've mentioned it twice now that I'm talking out of my *ss. But, really, who looks like they're backing up their position with data, and who looks to be talking out of their *ss?

    I'll end by saying that without you advancing your argument, I'll have to agree with others that this really becomes just noise. In that case, please consider posting to my activity feed or start a new discussion, where it can remain visible for those that are interested.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,713
    I think what threw some off guard was that they had the previous model (10213) out which was EOL'd due to the construction sturdiness issues and that led to 10231, which actually has been out for some time. I was not really surprised to see it go. But the think the release of the new version may have thrown people off into thinking it was going to be like the 'X-wing' and be out for 4 years
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    This reminds me of the scene in Indiana Jones where Indy shoots the Cairo swordsman.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,713
    ..DOH, DA is listed on US [email protected] at 'Call to check for product availability' now.. guess I should have bought that other DA after all.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,713
    SE is back up at call to check for product availability on [email protected] in US for what it is worth
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    prevere said:

    ..... It's always at crunch time that we pounce and then panic.

    It's like riding the surf. Hold it, hold it, paddle, paddle, paddle and go for it!

    This is true, but from the resale perspective, which most of us in this thread do, the shorter the length of time we have to hold onto sets the better. So trying to buy just as an item goes EOL is what most aim to do.

    With the length of time some sets are hanging around now, people really want to make sure a set is going EOL before stocking up. No one wants a bunch of DS sitting collecting dust for longer then need be.

  • jturnbull65jturnbull65 Member Posts: 19
    Pitfall69 said:

    BTW...I love inane Star Wars quotes. So, everyone, please don't stop even if the most pompous of us find it vacuous. Ahhh, love my word of the day toilet paper :)

    That's the difference. I did not ask anyone to stop the quotes and have no issue if it litters the discussion. On the other hand, several people invoked the love of god asking me to stop talking about reselling in a reselling thread.
    momof2boys99
  • beeblibeebli Member Posts: 3
    FatMatt said:

    ^Sometime I think it is correct though, such as the case with IS which has steadily been decreasing in stock. DA just showed 999 for me when I checked it either yesterday or the day before.
    Speaking of IS, it is down 325. May not last through the weekend.

    Could someone please tell me how to know the inventory levels for a product on amazon?
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 3,157
    Pitfall69 said:

    This reminds me of the scene in Indiana Jones where Indy shoots the Cairo swordsman.

    I'm thinking more of the scene in the Matrix when Agent Smith interrogates mr Anderson and his mouth hole disappears when he asks "what good is a phone call if you're unable to speak?".

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,713
    beebli said:

    FatMatt said:

    ^Sometime I think it is correct though, such as the case with IS which has steadily been decreasing in stock. DA just showed 999 for me when I checked it either yesterday or the day before.
    Speaking of IS, it is down 325. May not last through the weekend.

    Could someone please tell me how to know the inventory levels for a product on amazon?
    You get the item into your cart, then update the quantity to 999, most times it will say your quantity can only be x
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    jturnbull65 said:

    Oh, really? What's this then?

    You're right about that one...I forgot that you had included price.
    jturnbull65 said:

    To recap, I've presented the following to back up my claim that eBay and Amazon volume (and specifically LEGO sales volume) are somewhere between being equivalent to 3x in favor of Amazon: [blah, blah, blah]..

    The problem is that your "evidence" is not convincing in any way because it is so highly abstracted from the question at issue that it bears little relevant to the point that you are trying to "prove," which I think I've already admitted is something that can't be proved. I'm relying on my own personal experience because that is what has guided my opinion that you're FOS. Thinking that citations to Ebay and Amazon overall sales figures provides any support for whether a few thousand copies of a specific Lego set could have been sold during the holiday rush only reinforces this conclusion.
    jturnbull65 said:

    So here's another approach. Let's look at the latest quarter revenue available, Q3 2012:]...[blah, blah, blah]...Their 10-Q (http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9MTU5MzUxfENoaWxkSUQ9LTF8VHlwZT0z&t=1) lists "Electronics and other general merchandise" revenue at 8.5B.

    I have to give you credit on this one, you are the first person I have ever seen whip out a 10-Q as support for an argument on this board. Although I give you points for originality, my admiration is counterbalanced by my belief that when you get to the point of pulling up SEC filings to prove that LFT was exaggerating when he said he could have move several thousand units of Minecraft before X-Mas, you've really jumped the shark. Here, I'll make it easy for you to feel as though you've won this argument...you're right, I agree that there is no possible way that LFT could have ever conceivably sold that many Minecraft sets before X-Mas. It's just not possible in this universe or any other and I was a complete and utter fool for ever thinking otherwise, and Amazon's 10-Q only proves my foolishness.
    jturnbull65 said:

    You've mentioned it twice now that I'm talking out of my *ss. But, really, who looks like they're backing up their position with data, and who looks to be talking out of their *ss?

    You're backing up your position with data that has no relevance to your position.
    jturnbull65 said:

    I'll end by saying that without you advancing your argument, I'll have to agree with others that this really becomes just noise. In that case, please consider posting to my activity feed or start a new discussion, where it can remain visible for those that are interested.

    I've said what I had to say and, to be honest, don't feel like devoting more time to this. I could continue to beat this horse, but I have a trial resuming next week and so need to turn my attention to my dead horse beating endeavors that actually pay my bills. I'll end by summarizing my overarching point...based on my experience, I don't think LFT's claim was far-fetched, but I do think that your argument to the contrary based on data that discounted possible sales through Amazon was silly. It's just my opinion based on my experience (Amazon's 10-Q notwithstanding). I agree that you have spent a lot more time than I have searching for data to back up your position. In the end, I hope that you feel that the time was worth it.

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    ^Hopefully he is satisfied. Trolling for 19 months just just pounce on LFT had to be worth it. We shall now return to our scheduled programing.

    The DA I ordered from Amazon showed up today in great condition :) What a great set. Although not very accurate.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    I thought about parting out a DA or two. But I just can't do it.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 889
    ^^ I will add, that I *did* sell my (admittedly small) minecraft stock on amazon in the 3 weeks leading up to Xmas.

    I sold all my sets for 3-4 times msrp, and they sold within minutes of listing them at the lowest price. I don't think it's crazy to think you could have moved 1000 units in a week at 2 times msrp. 2500 units? Maybe, maybe not, but not out of the realm of possibility at half the going price.

    Minecraft is/was a massive anomaly that just doesn't apply to common sense, 10-Qs, or any other metrics...
    Nohearnutnhoney
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Pitfall69 said:

    The DA I ordered from Amazon showed up today in great condition :) What a great set. Although not very accurate.

    This is one of my fave sets of all time. I am a huge Potter fan so maybe I am a little biased. I know I have spent a small fortune collecting older HP sets and know fans will go nuts for 10217 and 4842.

  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    IS has gone back $260 on Amazon.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Temporarily....IS is soon to hit the low-level third sellers shortly.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    Yep, I expect they this weekend will wipe them out.
  • LegobrandonCPLegobrandonCP CanadaMember Posts: 1,917
    Thanks @kim43235. But I woke up a bit late today and missed out. But wasn't worth a shot since you guys had your orders cancelled!
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