Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

prevere

If we put the modulars and DS aside for a moment...

The rest (and I'm being extremely general here) of what Lego produces continues to follow the same 1 or 2-year sales life. Their strategy in this regard has not changed very much through the past few decades.

Brickarmor

prevere said:

Reduced production. Likely. Coupled with better supply chain distribution based on sales.

Honestly though, reduced BF or post-Xmas sales can be a huge help from a reselling perspective. Now, from a collector standpoint, it can force you to pay premiums if you missed something.

Lucid, dispassionate, concise. +Like.

prevere

I'm looking up some of the words you used. :)

Pitfall69

^Word of the day toilet paper. It works for me.

doriansdad

prevere said:

If we put the modulars and DS aside for a moment...

The rest (and I'm being extremely general here) of what Lego produces continues to follow the same 1 or 2-year sales life. Their strategy in this regard has not changed very much through the past few decades.

I think TLG did a rethink on lines aimed at adults. It would not surprise me to see the Bakery for sale again later this year.

Pitfall69

I wouldn't be surprised, but I don't think we will see the Bakery return. We might see the Post Office have a longer life, but even that one I think will be gone in another year. The Cottage I think will be the one that will have a longer life than previous Winter Village sets.

momof2boys99

^ It could also mean that Lego produced the same amount, but people purchased quantities earlier to hang on to after the success of the Winter Toy Shop.

dougts

^ agreed. the cottage in many respects represents a pretty substantial shift in the direction of the Winter Village line - a "reset" if you will - both in terms of price point and overall scale. If one assumes the following sets will all be in the same vein as 10229, then it might make sense for it to have a longer shelf life alongside it's successors.

That said, the current pattern of three holiday seasons is pretty long already, so maybe nothing will change at all.

jasonord69a

Pitfall69 said:

Does this mean TLG isn't producing as much of these sets?

I would also imagine that as a business which is in a period of substantial growth it would be very hard for TLG to forecast ahead how many of each set to produce.

Especially given the amount of adults coming out of their dark ages and becoming collectors/resellers.

Perhaps they have just under forecast their production for this set or alternatively and probably more likely intended to sell out before Xmas. This way they can sell them all at full price and not have to have it filling shelf space which could be used for the new 2013 sets, at a reduced price.

Tevans333

That is assuming that you purchased the Minecraft sets at full retail in regards to making a small profit, so it varies person to person. Personally I used VIP points and got 3 of the 5 I ordered for free.
Just my opinion.

Well, I would look at it this way. VIP points earned from previous purchases does not make a good deal on a new purchase. VIP points are a 5% discount on any given set. If you let your VIP accumulate, and apply them to a single transaction, that still does not make your discount any greater on your current transaction.

fyrmedhatt said:

As for 3450, Jamie Berard mentioned the set in one of his talks at Brickfiesta, saying that particular set could not be done today because it featured around 50 different sand green parts.

This is because of the much more limited parts palette today than back then (in 2000 the designers were much more freely able to request parts in new colors), so the only way that the Statue of Liberty could be done now is if there was a theme with a predominance of sand green in it (think what power miners did for lime green).

doriansdad said:

prevere said:

If we put the modulars and DS aside for a moment...

The rest (and I'm being extremely general here) of what Lego produces continues to follow the same 1 or 2-year sales life. Their strategy in this regard has not changed very much through the past few decades.

I think TLG did a rethink on lines aimed at adults. It would not surprise me to see the Bakery for sale again later this year.

I'd be suprised to see it back next. The local LEGO store here never had any instore this season. But then again, who knows lol.

As far as production quantities, it could be that the economy has picked up and LEGO simply sold more than they forecasted.

BrickDancer

^VIP points are the equivalent of slowly building up a $20 bill you found in your jean's pocket. It was always your money to begin with, but sure is a joy when you get to spend it like it was free.

A sales tool to create a special buying experience other retailers are not able to offer.

FatMatt

Amazon has 402 IS left. Down from 999+ a week ago. At the rate it is going, it will likely be gone by the beginning of the week, and those numbers will most likely increase as the stocks get lower. Toys R Us still has them in stock at retail though, but I don't think any other major retailer does.

Also, DA is available again at S@H. Cashed out my remaining VIP points on two of them since there were no post Christmas sales worth while to use them on.

itsnotme

Amazon knocked another $0.99 off the price of FB. Small amount, obviously, but is it sending a message? Are they not selling fast enough relative to Amazon's goal, whatever that may be?

Brickarmor

http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Diagon-Alley-10217

O_o

It also jumped to #1 on Amazons Building Toy list. Death knell may have sounded prematurely.

avoiceoreason

^That would be most unfortunate. Well, unfortunate for me. Very fortunate for anyone who thought they missed out.

jturnbull65

Basta said:

As far as selling 2800 in a week, don't forget he said at double retail, most of the ones you listed sold at much more then that, plus he has other avenues to sell them such as Amazon.

Maybe 2800 in a week is a little ambitious but Who knows :)

Actually, the 1200 sets sold in October on eBay and the 900 sets sold on Bricklink over six months had an average price of around $67.

Pacific493 said:

This is a silly argument because it doesn't account for Amazon. Given how quickly Minecraft sold out at Amazon, B&N, and WM when it came available during the holiday period, I have no doubt that someone could have moved thousands of copies of the set at 2x RRP if they had them available in the weeks leading up to Christmas.

It's not a silly argument. eBay and Bricklink are part of the resell market which LFT would be playing in if he's selling for twice MSRP. It's more applicable at least than Amazon, LEGO S@H, B&N, and Walmart which all at retail price (or $5 above in the case of Walmart). Also, a significant portion of those retail purchases were made by resellers who wouldn't be buying at double RRP, so that hurts the feasability of LFT's claim, also.

CCC said:

Amazingly, not everyone knows to look on S@H regularly.

That is true, yet enough people were looking on S@H to sell out within minutes of several restocks. The difference for the latest restock that lasted days was two-fold: it was just after Christmas starting on Dec 26th, and the free shipping offer had expired.

CCC said:

Bricklink sales often take a while to get going once a set is out .... So this can slow down sales on bricklink, since most people on bricklink know they will be able to get it for a reasonable price if they wait until the price settles down and more sellers are in competition with each other.

Yep, I understand Bricklink is a different beast and you even left out the biggest reason for slower sales: it doesn't have nearly the exposure that other marketplaces have.

Be that as it may, I used eBay and Bricklink because they have quantifiable sales history. I realize this doesn't account for all minecraft sets sold, but it represents a pretty significant chunk of the aftermarket for the sets. 2600 total sets were moved on eBay in an 8 week span. I think it's pretty obvious that LFT's claim to be able to move 2800 in 1/8 the time is absurd.

A more likely scenario for someone trying to list and move that much product in one week is that a lot of it would go unsold. A portion of people would wait to try to still score one at MSRP. A portion of the people would try their luck and wait for an auction. There's a lot less urgency if all of a sudden 2800 sets were listed as available, whether it be on eBay or Amazon.

All this just underscores what I am cautioning. In this singular example, LFT has made the argument for investing $125k on a set and suggested he could have moved that quantity in one week time. On both counts, I've shown that the data suggests he was a factor of 10 off from reality. Yet rather than acknowledging that this is the case, it seems most people are still defending those claims.

samiam391

@jturnbull65- Your comments on the subject are much appreciated and well researched, however, in either case, I do think it is time to move on from that specific topic.

I wish I had stocked up on some more DA when they were on sale... I only purchased two on sale at one point and sold them soon after for a meager profit.

absolut3

itsnotme said:

Amazon knocked another $0.99 off the price of FB. Small amount, obviously, but is it sending a message? Are they not selling fast enough relative to Amazon's goal, whatever that may be?

They are just price matching walmart

Tevans333

@jturnbull65 please, for the love of god, STOP!

hoyatables

Tevans333 said:

@jturnbull65 please, for the love of god, STOP!

Yes, because God forbid we beat any topic to death in this thread :).

doriansdad

Brickarmor said:

http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Diagon-Alley-10217

Too bad there is no free shipping, would have liked to buy :(

rocao

^ Is your local LEGO store out of stock? If so, you can visit the store and they'll place a S@H order for you while waiving the shipping charge.

LegoFanTexas

jturnbull65 said:

On both counts, I've shown that the data suggests he was a factor of 10 off from reality. Yet rather than acknowledging that this is the case, it seems most people are still defending those claims.

You could be right and I could be wrong. I have been wrong before, I'm sure I will be wrong again.

I am posting my opinions, nothing more or less.

gmpirate

Personally, I don't have an issue with @jturnbull65 or @legofantexas. I enjoy reading from both as they both provide some insight and perspective. As much as I enjoy this side business, I don't have the time to devote to the research and evaluation that they have and thus their points and discussions are helpful.

It sure beats "what should I buy", "I bought 2 recycling trucks, should I buy a third", and "is this a good deal". This so-called bickering, imo, has been a much more interesting read than most in a while.

Someone makes a statement, its rebutted, and look at the discussion that follows. We learn how to determine what product is moving and how much, risking money on sets, and what influences people's buying behaviors . . . Some of us know all this, some a little and for some its just thought provoking.

Anyway, the DS must be retiring soon???

doriansdad

rocao said:

^ Is your local LEGO store out of stock? If so, you can visit the store and they'll place a S@H order for you while waiving the shipping charge.

The better option is to let my citi forward card do the heavy lifting at amazon, but thanks for the tip.

monkeyhanger

@LFT: This forum is a better place with you in it. No one should bank on someones opinions here, especially when a lot of the success in selling is based purely on good timing. I don't believe LFT gives bad advice, perhaps late advice once the best timing for maximum profit on a sale is gone or when he's finding it difficult to get hold of any more of a certain something - but what is wrong with that? He doesn't have a bad word to say about anyone.

prevere

While Amazon has DA, I wouldn't bother with S@H. Ironically, S@H will go out of stock first likely. Once that happens, the dominoes will fall. Either way the credits are rolling.

dragonhawk

rocao said:

^ Is your local LEGO store out of stock? If so, you can visit the store and they'll place a S@H order for you while waiving the shipping charge.

Can they also apply an in-store only coupon on this type of order ?

dragonhawk

gmpirate said:

Anyway, the DS must be retiring soon???

DS - retiring soon since (at least) October 2011

jturnbull65

Thanks for responding civilly. I don't think it was lost on you that I am not interested in attacking you personally.

My issue wasn't so much with whether or not you were wrong. On the minecraft volume, I had an issue with you speaking with such certainty when it was conjecture. On your willingness to invest six figures, I think, for lack of a better phrase, you may have been "believing your own hype" or trying to uphold an image of excess.

Your opinion carries weight with many here, and though that is ultimately their choice, you do bear some responsibility for the information presented.

Pacific493

jturnbull65 said:

Pacific493 said:

This is a silly argument because it doesn't account for Amazon. Given how quickly Minecraft sold out at Amazon, B&N, and WM when it came available during the holiday period, I have no doubt that someone could have moved thousands of copies of the set at 2x RRP if they had them available in the weeks leading up to Christmas.

It's not a silly argument. eBay and Bricklink are part of the resell market which LFT would be playing in if he's selling for twice MSRP. It's more applicable at least than Amazon, LEGO S@H, B&N, and Walmart which all at retail price (or $5 above in the case of Walmart). Also, a significant portion of those retail purchases were made by resellers who wouldn't be buying at double RRP, so that hurts the feasability of LFT's claim, also.

If you are ignoring the one outlet where a reseller would be able to move the greatest number of sets in the shortest period of time, then, yes, you are making a silly argument. To illustrate the strawman that you are attacking, I'll give you an example from my recent past. I had about 50 snowtrooper battlepacks to sell over this holiday season and had them listed on Amazon, BL and Ebay starting in late-August/early-September. I sold 2 on Ebay, 0 on BL and 48 on Amazon...and all of the Amazon sales happened over the space of 3 days. Take Amazon out of the equation and I'm still sitting on 48 battlepacks. Put Amazon back in the equation and I sell every one that I have.

rocao

@dragonhawk: I've never tried it, so I'm not sure. Is there any fine print on the coupon mentioning only in-stock merchandise? I imagine it's probably a gray area and if you're lucky they'll honor it. The general LBR philosophy is that the B&M LEGO stores should be seamless with the online store. The policy on waiving the shipping is because the item theoretically should be in stock for you at the store. Therefore, one might successfully argue that since it should be available, you should be able to use a coupon.

jturnbull65

Pacific493 said:

If you are ignoring the one outlet where a reseller would be able to move the greatest number of sets in the shortest period of time, then, yes, you are making a silly argument. To illustrate the strawman that you are attacking, I'll give you an example from my recent past. I had about 50 snowtrooper battlepacks to sell over this holiday season and had them listed on Amazon, BL and Ebay starting in late-August/early-September. I sold 2 on Ebay, 0 on BL and 48 on Amazon...and all of the Amazon sales happened over the space of 3 days. Take Amazon out of the equation and I'm still sitting on 48 battlepacks. Put Amazon back in the equation and I sell every one that I have.

You mentioned Amazon in the context of selling out which was only Amazon retail and not the marketplace. Amazon marketplace did not sell out of minecraft. I know because I run an Amazon storefront. I had several dozen available and though I was asking more than double MSRP (everyone was) it took me much longer than a week to move mine. So yes, there is demand at Amazon and I didn't include it because it isn't easily measurable.

But since you insist, let's try, shall we?Amazon and eBay are ranked 5 and 6 respectively for website traffic. Amazon's number includes all their non retail traffic, so even though I would argue that eBay has more sales impressions, I think we can say they are roughly equivalent. Now look specifically at LEGO listings. Pick any set and you'll find at least as many eBay listings as there are on Amazon Marketplace, and typically it's three times as many. Heck, search on the completed listings for whatever battlepacks you were selling. I'm sure it wouldn't be as desolate as the 2 sales you mention.

But for simplicity, let's just still say they are equivalent.

The point remains that the claim was he could move as much in one week as THE ENTIRE VOLUME MOVED ON EBAY OVER TWO MONTHS.

Pitfall69

"Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in"

I thought when my daughter watched the same "My Little Pony" episode 6 times in a row was beating a dead horse. People make bold statements. My father told me the other day "Hell I could throw 16 TD's in one season" of course I looked at him and rolled my eyes. He wasn't serious, but he was just trying to make a point. I don't think anyone should be held accountable for any advice they put out there in this forum. I'm sure Warren Buffet has been wrong a time or two. Is he held accountable for every piece of advice he puts out there? I think with these types of attacks one might feel like they shouldn't say anything at all and we all want everyone to feel welcome and join in the conversations.

Love the brick

prevere

"My little pony, my little pony, aaaaahhhhaaahhhhaaaaahhh"...

Pitfall69

^The Horror

prevere

I really like the City Garage and Rescue/Emergency Center (Wally exclusive), but the retail price seems really high on both. I guess I'll hope for some timely summer sales for those two.

jturnbull65

Pitfall69: thanks for the Warren Buffet analogy. I was hesitant to mention stocks for several reasons, but now is a good time. Buffet occasionally comments on the markets, and you can bet what he says is influential. But you can also cross-check what he says with what positions Berkshire Hathaway is holding on a quarterly basis. If there were some big discrepancies, not only would it be seen as irresponsible bordering unethical, but the SEC might even review if something illegal like market manipulation had transpired.

Of course that is all more serious than LFT and his proclamations, and no one is asking to audit him to that degree, but I hope people can see the importance of reconciling if an influential investor behaves in a manner consistent with what he writes about.

legoprods

At least this is better for this thread followers than when the topic drifted to shipping couriers and boxes!

VaderX

@jturnbull65- Just wow, you can clearly take a hint.
He's dragged the dead horse for miles now, what a victory!
rofl. - nuff said.

So to get back on topic. I really would be surprised if we don't see the Village Barkery return back next year.

FatMatt

^I prefer talk of bubble wrap and Death Stars.

Pitfall69

"That's no moon"

Billybrown

FatMatt said:

^I prefer talk of bubble wrap and Death Stars.

Well i have 15 rolls arriving in the morning and have 2 DS's which are both mint ;-)

legoprods

I do have two big boxes of bubble mailers about to arrive tomorrow, I'm mostly a BL parts seller :)

So... TB is really gone after all?

Billybrown

legoprods said:

I do have two big boxes of bubble mailers about to arrive tomorrow, I'm mostly a BL parts seller :)

So... TB is really gone after all?

I think TB is due to go in 2014.

Pitfall69

Pitfall69 said:

bri4jenn said:

#10216 Winter Village Bakery has changed to "call to check product availability" on US Lego S@H. I called and picked up 2 today.

Yes, I picked up 3. They only let me order 3. They told me they can't guarantee if all or any will ship out though. I guess they found some kicking around in the warehouse somewhere.

These are already selling for 2x RRP.

Got an email that all 3 have been shipped out with the promotional Chima set. I forgot about that set. I wish I didn't have to pay shipping, but at least I didn't miss out completely on the Bakery. Like I said before, I think this is the last we will see the Bakery, but anything is possible.

I just bought 20 more Death Stars. I heard through the grapevine they are on their way out :P

Basta

Pitfall69 said:

I just bought 20 more Death Stars. I heard through the grapevine they are on their way out :P

What only 20 :>

Pitfall69

^I decided not to go "deep"

Hardrada

prevere said:

Does anyone think the WTS will continue to rise past $150 into the $200+ range?

It doesn't seem to do too well yet. It's only at ~100 USD on Bricklink, nowhere near 150 USD, let alone 200.

It can rather easily be had for 100 USD in my country as well, and that was the RRP here. That huge S@H sale didn't help its progress. (If you bought it during that sale then of course it was a quite good investment. Sadly I missed it.)

Pacific493

jturnbull65 said:

You mentioned Amazon in the context of selling out which was only Amazon retail and not the marketplace. Amazon marketplace did not sell out of minecraft. I know because I run an Amazon storefront. I had several dozen available and though I was asking more than double MSRP (everyone was) it took me much longer than a week to move mine. So yes, there is demand at Amazon and I didn't include it because it isn't easily measurable.

But since you insist, let's try, shall we?Amazon and eBay are ranked 5 and 6 respectively for website traffic. Amazon's number includes all their non retail traffic, so even though I would argue that eBay has more sales impressions, I think we can say they are roughly equivalent. Now look specifically at LEGO listings. Pick any set and you'll find at least as many eBay listings as there are on Amazon Marketplace, and typically it's three times as many. Heck, search on the completed listings for whatever battlepacks you were selling. I'm sure it wouldn't be as desolate as the 2 sales you mention.

But for simplicity, let's just still say they are equivalent.

The point remains that the claim was he could move as much in one week as THE ENTIRE VOLUME MOVED ON EBAY OVER TWO MONTHS.

You're really having to do some contortions to keep your argument going. If you really do have an Amazon storefront and also sell on Ebay, then you're well aware of how much easier it is to move sets on Amazon than Ebay. If you're really going to contend that the number of sets sold on Ebay is a reasonable indicator of how many sell on Amazon, then I would conclude based on my own personal experience that you're talking out of your a**.

I have no doubt that there were far more battlepacks sold on Ebay than the two that I sold that way...the point of my example was that it was far easier for me to sell the battlepacks on Amazon than it was on Ebay.

It's all opinion, but I still believe that it would have been relatively easy to sell out huge volumes of Minecraft before X-Mas at 2x RRP given the demand that was out there, but since you were selling them for more than 2x RRP and I wasn't selling any, I guess we'll never know for sure.