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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    TMNT doesn't surprise me if those rankings are accurate. I can't keep the action figures in stock to save my life, and I've actually had a ton of requests about the LEGO sets as well (I don't normally deal in LEGO outside of the holidays). TMNT is huge with kids right now, so, even though I don't particularly care for the sets, it was a smart move on TLG's part.
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk Member Posts: 633
    edited January 2013
    ^ My local TRUs were out of TMNT sets within a few days of having them on the shelves. It is definately hot. I personally thought the designs look too simplistic and unappealing (except maybe Shredder's bike), but I was not the target audience. I can see the appeal of the minifigs, though
  • jturnbull65jturnbull65 Member Posts: 19
    edited January 2013
    LegoFanTexas said:

    Of course, even if there was no limit, 513 of them would be $123K worth and while I'm willing to go deep on a popular set, this one just isn't it. :)

    LOL! ... So if you did deem this one of those popular sets, you're saying you would have "gone deep" to the tune of six figures?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,838
    I have a few IS's and only bought them when they were on sale for about 24-25% off... If Amazon does that again then Ill buy another, not sure if Id pull the trigger at 8% off though.
    DA is full price BUT it is selling out everywhere so that may be the better deal at this point... still on the fence about buying a couple more FB sets since they are still only 119 at Amazon
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,838
    Ma1234 said:


    thehockeyboy said:

    FB was noticeably absent from the January magazine...

    GE meanwhile had a nice spotlight.

    FB is in the 2013 consumer catalog and continues into its fourth year in the product assortment.

    I think FB was omitted from the last LEGO catalog I received before Christmas.
    But does it being in the '13 consumer catalog mean it will last all year? I though someone said the latest rumor (yeah yeah I know I know) was for Spring of 13... Which means it could be briefly available in 2013 then gone
  • momof2boys99momof2boys99 Member Posts: 322
    @madforLEGO...Who knows when FB will go? I do think $119 is a great price. I have seen better...but it might be the best price before it leaves. I sorta gave up trying to figure out when some of these will go. I just keep some stock of what I want and am happy if it works out.
  • hobbynuthobbynut Member Posts: 3
    Funny, I looked at the 2013 catalog and don't see FB in there. The modulars they do have are GE, PS, and TH. Am I missing something?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    LOL! ... So if you did deem this one of those popular sets, you're saying you would have "gone deep" to the tune of six figures?
    :)

    No, but there are some sets that I'd be happy to buy that much of... The trick is getting enough supply.

    Minecraft this past summer comes to mind, there are others as well...
  • momof2boys99momof2boys99 Member Posts: 322
    Oh LFT....don't ya think 6 figures of any set is too much supply? I think that is just way to much of a gamble. For gosh sake....that could buy my first house! Yikes!!
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    hobbynut said:

    Funny, I looked at the 2013 catalog and don't see FB in there. The modulars they do have are GE, PS, and TH. Am I missing something?

    Thumbing through the 2009 Holiday Catalog, 'Oh look, there's the new Fire Brigade!'. And...UCS MF, CC, GG, VW Beetle, Taj, & Carousel. Best catalog lineup I've ever seen. Anyone have a flux capacitor?

    FollowsCloselyPenkid11Sharifa
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    Also, on Helm's Deep. Noticed Amazon and S@H are out (S@H is restocking). I assume quantities will continue into 2013. Thoughts that this will perform like the last Hogwarts?
  • BastaBasta Member Posts: 1,259
    momof2boys99 said:

    Oh LFT....don't ya think 6 figures of any set is too much supply? I think that is just way to much of a gamble. For gosh sake....that could buy my first house! Yikes!!

    This was my thought. I wonder how long it would take to move 500 units of any set, especially at greater than retail, with out having the market share of the large stores, I know LFT has an Amazon store, but I assume items not sold directly by Amazon don't move as quick?

    I suppose if you are able to sell them cheap enough people will buy.

    I know this is going off topic a little, but I wonder what would happen if a reseller turned up with 500 UCS MF, if they listed at $2000 each I would be surprised if over 6 months they could sell them at a rate greater then 1 a week, I think the price would have to drop significantly (<$1000) to be able to move all 500 in a reasonable amount of time. Additionally at what point would a set like the UCS MF reach saturation point and have trouble selling at original RRP?
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693
    edited January 2013
    hobbynut said:

    Funny, I looked at the 2013 catalog and don't see FB in there. The modulars they do have are GE, PS, and TH. Am I missing something?

    LEGO publishes a consumer catalog in Europe that is extremely exhaustive and includes FB for 2013.

    They are unlike U.S. S@H catalogs which only highlight some sets.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    momof2boys99 said:

    Oh LFT....don't ya think 6 figures of any set is too much supply? I think that is just way to much of a gamble. For gosh sake....that could buy my first house! Yikes!!

    For a small reseller, yes that is nuts. But I know a few resellers who have millions of dollars worth of inventory, I'm small scale compared to them.

    $100,000 worth of minecraft at RRP is only 2,857 sets. A few months ago, I could have sold that many at 2x RRP in a week. So no, it isn't too much.

    LEGO does billions of dollars worth of sales, $100K is a lot of money, but it isn't at the same time.
  • bri4jennbri4jenn Member Posts: 96
    edited January 2013
    #10216 Winter Village Bakery has changed to "call to check product availability" on US Lego S@H. I called and picked up 2 today.
  • jturnbull65jturnbull65 Member Posts: 19
    edited January 2013
    LegoFanTexas said:

    No, but there are some sets that I'd be happy to buy that much of... The trick is getting enough supply.

    Minecraft this past summer comes to mind, there are others as well...

    Setting aside the fact that the entire dynamic of the market for minecraft would be different if people could obtain the set in large quantities, I still call BS on your claim of willingness to invest six figures into a specific LEGO set.

    You realize that would be nearly 3500 copies, right?

    I'm sure you'll correct me if I'm wrong, but it sounds like you're the most heavily invested in the modular sets (Fire Brigade, perhaps?) so it stands to reason those most closely fit your criteria to "go deep". If I recall, you have ~100 not ~1000 so you're demonstrably an order of magnitude off between your self aggrandizement and reality.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    edited January 2013
    bri4jenn said:

    #10216 Winter Village Bakery has changed to "call to check product availability" on US Lego S@H. I called and picked up 2 today.

    Yes, I picked up 3. They only let me order 3. They told me they can't guarantee if all or any will ship out though. I guess they found some kicking around in the warehouse somewhere.

    These are already selling for 2x RRP.
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    jturnbull65 said:

    LegoFanTexas said:

    No, but there are some sets that I'd be happy to buy that much of... The trick is getting enough supply.

    Minecraft this past summer comes to mind, there are others as well...

    Setting aside the fact that the entire dynamic of the market for minecraft would be different if people could obtain the set in large quantities, I still call BS on your claim of willingness to invest six figures into a specific LEGO set.

    You realize that would be nearly 3500 copies, right?

    I'm sure you'll correct me if I'm wrong, but it sounds like you're the most heavily invested in the modular sets (Fire Brigade, perhaps?) so it stands to reason those most closely fit your criteria to "go deep". If I recall, you have ~100 not ~1000 so you're demonstrably an order of magnitude off between your self aggrandizement and reality.
    I know that LFT can defend himself, but I have to point out that I don't recall him ever saying that he was thousands of copies deep on FB. Also, I don't think that it is a stretch at all to consider a 6 figure investment in a given set reasonable. Maybe if you have never invested in any Lego and have no sense of what the reselling market is like, it would seem ridiculous, but once you get a better sense of things, it's not unreasonable at all. I'm not anywhere near that level now, but if I had the capital to invest and was able to get a position that large on a set that I thought I could turn over for a profit, I wouldn't hesitate to drop 6 figures into it.

    hleonffuLegoFanTexas
  • momof2boys99momof2boys99 Member Posts: 322
    LegoFanTexas said:

    momof2boys99 said:

    Oh LFT....don't ya think 6 figures of any set is too much supply? I think that is just way to much of a gamble. For gosh sake....that could buy my first house! Yikes!!

    For a small reseller, yes that is nuts. But I know a few resellers who have millions of dollars worth of inventory, I'm small scale compared to them.

    $100,000 worth of minecraft at RRP is only 2,857 sets. A few months ago, I could have sold that many at 2x RRP in a week. So no, it isn't too much.

    LEGO does billions of dollars worth of sales, $100K is a lot of money, but it isn't at the same time.
    O.k. I sell quite a bit of Lego too, however I think it would be foolish to bank that much into one set. As far as Minecraft goes...that too was a gamble. One would never know how much was going to be produced or when the next batch would come out. It is easy to look back and see what we could have done. I don't think it would matter if I spend $50,000 a year on inventory or millions. I still would need to make smart decisions. I guess we just have different approaches.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Hey... reading about a guy that's buying $100K of LEGOS is good to know. I mean - when the wife complains that the Visa bill has $1,000+ charges for LEGOS on it I can say - 'Hey, be glad I'm not really into LEGO. There are guys on the forum that spend $100K at a time on LEGOS! Let me show you the post. The $1,000 I spent is nothing!' :-)
    BombTec
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    ^ This...

    I have about 80 copies of FB now, I've been picking up 2 more at time from Amazon as they allow me to. But I wouldn't buy $100K worth at $120 each even if Amazon let me, that is too much into a set that everyone and their brother has already stashed.

    I have no doubt there is a reseller somewhere who does have 1,000 copies of FB set side, so it will be a long, slow haul.

    Minecraft 6 months ago was another beast. Would I do it now if I could pickup 2,857 copies? No, I would not, because I believe the heavy demand has been satisified, plus many more resellers have picked up copies and will hold the price down.
  • momof2boys99momof2boys99 Member Posts: 322
    @cloaked7....:O)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    cloaked7 said:

    Hey... reading about a guy that's buying $100K of LEGOS is good to know. I mean - when the wife complains that the Visa bill has $1,000+ charges for LEGOS on it I can say - 'Hey, be glad I'm not really into LEGO. There are guys on the forum that spend $100K at a time on LEGOS! Let me show you the post. The $1,000 I spent is nothing!' :-)

    ^ that might all be true, but it depends on the starting point. If you only had $1,000 to spend and that crazy fool on the forum had a million to spend, who was the greater fool?

    The fool, or the fool who follows him?

    Hmm, now where have I heard that line before? ;-)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Here we go again!!! From a certain point of view.
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    I tried to order the bakery tonight, and it was, "yeah, we still have a few" to "hold on let me check" to "sorry". Funny, I bought a bunch of WTS, but the bakery EOL got me before I could get any.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    ^I think the lack of stock after Christmas caught us off guard. I think most of us thought there would be plenty of the Winter Bakery for the after Christmas sale just like winter Toy Shop was.
  • BastaBasta Member Posts: 1,259
    edited January 2013
    Winter Village Bakery #10216 is now SOLD OUT on US and CAD S@H and page appears to be removed from all other S@H sites.

    I picked up a few of these about 4 weeks ago, as they were part of a catalogue sale for one of our department stores "Myer", listed at $25 off (AU RRP is $94.99). I also got an additional 10% of so I paid just under $8 more then US RRP.

    It's funny with some of the Hard To Find\Exclusive sets in Australia, they will just show up in one of the large department stores for a sale, never to be seen again.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Now the Post Office went from Sold Out to Call to check for availability.
  • BastaBasta Member Posts: 1,259
    Pitfall69 said:

    Now the Post Office went from Sold Out to Call to check for availability.

    Interesting with these winter sets, all other S@H sites have this page removed now as well. As these are listed as seasonal are they actually going EOL as the page removal would suggest or will they be back in the second half of 2013?

  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    Post office will be back next year.
  • thenosthenos Member Posts: 444
    edited January 2013
    prevere said:

    Post office will be back next year.

    I thought their pattern was 2 and out. This is the Post Office's second year. Cottage should be back next year.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    ^ Nope, 3 and out... WTS and WB both lasted 3 years...

    Unless I've completely lost my mind of course...
  • flyingpigflyingpig Member Posts: 119
    LFT, why continue to buy FB when you know (tens of) thousands are already stockpiled?
  • RichBRichB Member Posts: 52
    Hopefully 10216 follows the 3 and out that 10199 did. I guess technically TLG could re-issue 10216 again next fall/winter. Only time will tell in my opinion.
  • jturnbull65jturnbull65 Member Posts: 19
    Pacific493 said:

    I know that LFT can defend himself, but I have to point out that I don't recall him ever saying that he was thousands of copies deep on FB.

    That's correct and that's precisely my point. His largest position in any set is around $10,000. That is why I am asserting his cavalier mention of his willingness to buy up all the stock for $120k of a popular set was not grounded in reality, and instead was another shameless attempt to declare his buying power.
  • RichBRichB Member Posts: 52
    Not sure if this has been posted but just noticed DA is now 'sold out' on Lego U.S.
  • RichBRichB Member Posts: 52
    Back to 'call to check availability'. That was fast.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    ^Yes it was mentioned.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    edited January 2013
    LegoFanTexas said:

    ^ Nope, 3 and out... WTS and WB both lasted 3 years...

    Unless I've completely lost my mind of course...

    None of them have actually lasted three years. You just think they have because of the way they're released and retired. In reality, the Toy Shop and the Bakery were both available for just over two years each. I think it's the fact that they come in at the beginning of a holiday season and then leave at roughly the same time two holiday seasons later that's throwing you.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    thenos said:

    prevere said:

    Post office will be back next year.

    I thought their pattern was 2 and out. This is the Post Office's second year. Cottage should be back next year.
    Same as mentioned above, Post Office will be back next year, but only because it's barely over a year old at this point.
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    Does anyone think the WTS will continue to rise past $150 into the $200+ range?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    ^I think so. It's a great set and it is the first in the series.
  • dougtsdougts Member Posts: 4,110
    y2josh said:

    LegoFanTexas said:

    ^ Nope, 3 and out... WTS and WB both lasted 3 years...

    Unless I've completely lost my mind of course...

    None of them have actually lasted three years. You just think they have because of the way they're released and retired. In reality, the Toy Shop and the Bakery were both available for just over two years each. I think it's the fact that they come in at the beginning of a holiday season and then leave at roughly the same time two holiday seasons later that's throwing you.
    People mean 3 winter/holiday seasons. WTS and WB both were out a full 3 hoiday seasons. yes, that means about 26 months actualy time, or closer to 2 years than 3, but I think we all know what was meant

  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    jturnbull65 said:

    Pacific493 said:

    I know that LFT can defend himself, but I have to point out that I don't recall him ever saying that he was thousands of copies deep on FB.

    That's correct and that's precisely my point. His largest position in any set is around $10,000. That is why I am asserting his cavalier mention of his willingness to buy up all the stock for $120k of a popular set was not grounded in reality, and instead was another shameless attempt to declare his buying power.
    If he never said that he was $100k deep on FB, then you're basically just attacking a strawman.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    jturnbull65 said:

    That's correct and that's precisely my point. His largest position in any set is around $10,000. That is why I am asserting his cavalier mention of his willingness to buy up all the stock for $120k of a popular set was not grounded in reality, and instead was another shameless attempt to declare his buying power.

    Envy is an ugly color my friend...

    My ability or not to buy that much of a set is completly beside the point. Perhaps I can only afford 10 of them, it really doesn't change anything.

    My point is that there may not be many sets worth buying that much of (Fire Brigade is not, for example), but Minecraft was one of them. Note the "was" in that sentence, I think the time has past.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    @LegoFanTexas Just joking around earlier. Saw the comment about $100K in LEGOS and a little humor popped into my head.

    $100K in LEGOS made my evening. :-)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    flyingpig said:

    LFT, why continue to buy FB when you know (tens of) thousands are already stockpiled?

    That is a great question. Because even with that many copies out there, being able to buy them for $120 is still not a bad deal, I'll still double that in 1-2 years after it EOLs.

    I would not pay full retail at this point, I have too many of them to do that, but every copy I buy at $120 dollar cost averages the whole pile a little bit lower.

    The old saying, "in for a penny, in for a pound", applies at this point. If I could hand back 30 copies for full retail price, I would do so.
  • kwkwkwkw Member Posts: 1,209
    edited January 2013
    If you want to see $100k in Lego, give me about 4 more years lol my collection has surpassed $15k and I've been collecting for a little over 6 months :) ...I need help with this addiction haha...forgot to add in the resell collection i have too make that $21k as of right now lol
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    ^I don't think @LegoFanTexas needs to divulge any aspects of his business to anyone.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    edited January 2013
    Pitfall69 said:

    ^I don't think @LegoFanTexas needs to divulge any aspects of his business to anyone.

    I think he enjoys divulging which makes his "idiot" comments in the USA Today thread all the more contradictory.

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