Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

cloaked7

It is listed as 'Retiring Soon' at S@H in the US. And still in stock at RRP.

gmpirate

^ Thanks! Lego's website is terribly slow on my phone and I was hedging on it. Also got lucky as someone had just returned a Shuttle Expedition. A father was debating with his son over the Space Centre and the Shuttle while I was waiting in line. Crossed my fingers and the kid went with the Space Centre :)

Plus the Shuttle was clearance priced at $80 :D

cloaked7

@gmpirate Sweet. Personally, I would rather have the Shuttle. I think it is a classic. I will build mine and have several for resell. I think it will do extremely well. Who had it on clearance for $80?

RichB

Wow!!! $80 is an price for 10231. Good job! Where did you find it that cheap?

FatMatt

Walmart had them for $75 a few months back.

gmpirate

The SE's are on clearance with Lego. Like everything else on the list, if someone returns something, they will resell it at the clearance price :)

I picked up several items last year that way but this year I have not had any reason to visits the B&M's. Just went by today since we took the kids to Disneyland -- until it started pouring anyway :(

mathew

AW had a few rencently for under 100 but they have since jacked up the price.

mathew

FatMatt said:

Walmart had them for $75 a few months back.

We know that. Sales that happened in the past are not really relevant to today.

Dad

mathew said:

FatMatt said:

Walmart had them for $75 a few months back.

We know that. Sales that happened in the past are not really relevant to today.

Quite clearly the 2 people who asked the question didn't know.

prevere

Has anyone noticed what is getting restocked in U.S. retail stores with the Super Heroes line? Wondering if Two-Face; Batwing and some of the first waves are getting restocked or if Tumbler and second waves are taking their positions on the shelves.

Same question can be made for Ninjago / Chima. Just haven't seen any restocking in my stores yet.

gmpirate

My local Walmart started stocking Chima Friday night. Maybe ahead of time since they only had 7 boxes of Lego in the store total of anything.

Hardrada

I'd say the green Ninjago stuff are all EOL. The biggest supermarket chain here (Central Europe) has all of them on post-Christmas sale except for Lasha's Bite Cycle and Fangpyre Mech. (But the latter is 50% off every other week, though from an RRP + ~30% 'normal' price.)

Chima speedorz have completely taken over the shelf space of Ninjago spinners, too.

gmpirate

^ I don't know about that. Maybe they are just making room at their store cause I really like the green boxes.

Diggydoes

I know this thread is mostly about complete/sealed sets,but what about predictions of single minifigures (no not the CMF)? I'm curious to know if there are resellers who stock on minifigures for resell-purposes?

JamesJT

Argos in the UK are selling the new technic racer 42000 for £80. Some folks are trying to filp these on ebay for £200+

mathew

Dad said:

mathew said:

FatMatt said:

Walmart had them for $75 a few months back.

We know that. Sales that happened in the past are not really relevant to today.

Quite clearly the 2 people who asked the question didn't know.

It didn't answer the question at hand.

It's like someone saying "You could of bought the UCS Millinium Falcon for $300 from Lego in December 2009 (or whenever the EOL date was)."

itsnotme

mathew said:

Dad said:

mathew said:

FatMatt said:

Walmart had them for $75 a few months back.

We know that. Sales that happened in the past are not really relevant to today.

Quite clearly the 2 people who asked the question didn't know.

It didn't answer the question at hand.

It's like someone saying "You could of bought the UCS Millinium Falcon for $300 from Lego in December 2009 (or whenever the EOL date was)."

It's relevant because the lowest reseller cost basis of a recently EOL'd set will impact its aftermarket performance.

Dad

mathew said:

Dad said:

mathew said:

FatMatt said:

Walmart had them for $75 a few months back.

We know that. Sales that happened in the past are not really relevant to today.

Quite clearly the 2 people who asked the question didn't know.

It didn't answer the question at hand.

It's like someone saying "You could of bought the UCS Millinium Falcon for $300 from Lego in December 2009 (or whenever the EOL date was)."

Seriously? You think that?

mathew

itsnotme said:

mathew said:

Dad said:

mathew said:

FatMatt said:

Walmart had them for $75 a few months back.

We know that. Sales that happened in the past are not really relevant to today.

Quite clearly the 2 people who asked the question didn't know.

It didn't answer the question at hand.

It's like someone saying "You could of bought the UCS Millinium Falcon for $300 from Lego in December 2009 (or whenever the EOL date was)."

It's relevant because the lowest reseller cost basis of a recently EOL'd set will impact its aftermarket performance.

I don't think that is necessarily true. A lot depends on other factors like after market desirability and how many were stock piled by resellers.

FatMatt

:)

thehockeyboy

FB was noticeably absent from the January magazine...

GE meanwhile had a nice spotlight.

Pitfall69

Diggydoes said:

I know this thread is mostly about complete/sealed sets,but what about predictions of single minifigures (no not the CMF)? I'm curious to know if there are resellers who stock on minifigures for resell-purposes?

Ask @samiam. He is the resident minifigure expert. That being said, this thread is all about sets in general, although there are minifigures that drive the aftermarket sets performance.

jasonord69a

Off topic I know, happy new year to you all!!

Ma1234

thehockeyboy said:

FB was noticeably absent from the January magazine...

GE meanwhile had a nice spotlight.

FB is in the 2013 consumer catalog and continues into its fourth year in the product assortment.

Brickarmor

Goodbye, Diagon Alley.

http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Diagon-Alley-10217

LegoFanTexas

:) Yep, and there it goes...

Still @ Amazon for RRP. How long will it last now? Putting 999 in the qty box, says they have over a thousand, but I'd be shocked at this point if they really do. That is a lot of a set that is retired, just after Christmas, when everything else Amazon had sold out.

But I could be wrong, perhaps they bought 10,000 of them in October and are just running through them now?

Anyone want to place bets?

Supersympa

10217 is already going for USD 300+ in Europe

Dad

^ Is was a good Christmas in the UK on these. I just think it EOL'd early enough for any supplies to run out. The timing was just right.

Pitfall69

It's not showing as Sold Out, but "Check for product availability" pretty much means it is gone.

nkx1

Hmmm, I told myself I was going to stop reselling, but I'm not sure if I can help myself from buying a few (or 10) of these... Judging from the recent smaller sets such as #4840, DA might do pretty well.

Crownie

*waves goodbye to Harry Potter*

So what exactly is the status of the #10226 Sopwith Camel? Brickset has it listed as being sold in the US through December 21st, 2012, but it still shows up at S@H. How close is this to disappearing?

dougts

^nowhere near EOL - it's only 7 months old. just a holiday shortage, much like the 10220 was last year at this time. it's already back in my local LEGO store after being gone for all of December. Likewise, other online big box chains who were sold out for weeks now are showing it again.

it will last well into 2014 and probably beyond

Crownie

dougts said:

^nowhere near EOL - it's only 7 months old. just a holiday shortage, much like the 10220 was last year at this time. it's already back in my local LEGO store after being gone for all of December. Likewise, other online big box chains who were sold out for weeks now are showing it again.

it will last well into 2014 and probably beyond

Thanks for that. I somehow missed just how current it is. :P

Pitfall69

Harry Potter is still very popular. All my sets sold quick. I had sealed, damaged boxes and used complete sets and they flew off the shelves. 98% of the people that bought the Lego sets were female. I found that interesting.

prevere

LegoFanTexas said:

:) Yep, and there it goes...

Still @ Amazon for RRP. How long will it last now? Putting 999 in the qty box, says they have over a thousand, but I'd be shocked at this point if they really do. That is a lot of a set that is retired, just after Christmas, when everything else Amazon had sold out.

But I could be wrong, perhaps they bought 10,000 of them in October and are just running through them now?

Anyone want to place bets?

I think DA will last through this week at least on Amazon.

IS is going too, but Amazon must have a lot of that one as well. That $20 off retail deal has been running for quite some time.

111ins

I have about 12 older, used HP sets, complete with boxes in great shape. Thoughts if I should dump now or hold off now that there are almost none at LEGO any longer.

Pitfall69

I still think you will do fine. Especially with the older sets, although depending on what sets they are, I think most of them have reached their peak.

FatMatt

@prevere
554 IS in stock at Amazon.

flyingpig

516 shuttles

LegoFanTexas

513. :)

I just don't see these blowing out quickly. The biggest issue is that Amazon limits you to 2 per week, and they have been getting stricter about this.

About a week ago I received an e-mail from Amazon letting me know that using two accounts to get around purchase limits was against the rules, and to please stop. This was from a purchase of Minecraft, I bought 2 of them, 1 on my account and 1 on my wife's account.

So I wasn't going hogwild about it, but they seem to be caring more these days about item purchase limits.

Of course, even if there was no limit, 513 of them would be $123K worth and while I'm willing to go deep on a popular set, this one just isn't it. :)

My own purchase limit will reset tomorrow or the next day, I think I'll get 2 more, and that will be that. :)

littlepuppi

LegoFanTexas said:

513. :)

I just don't see these blowing out quickly. The biggest issue is that Amazon limits you to 2 per week, and they have been getting stricter about this.

About a week ago I received an e-mail from Amazon letting me know that using two accounts to get around purchase limits was against the rules, and to please stop. This was from a purchase of Minecraft, I bought 2 of them, 1 on my account and 1 on my wife's account.

So I wasn't going hogwild about it, but they seem to be caring more these days about item purchase limits.

Of course, even if there was no limit, 513 of them would be $123K worth and while I'm willing to go deep on a popular set, this one just isn't it. :)

My own purchase limit will reset tomorrow or the next day, I think I'll get 2 more, and that will be that. :)

LFT I really respect how open you are on these forums, its very refreshing.

RE the shuttle I have 6 and am looking to take that to 10... Just sorted out my selling list for 2013 though and need to make some progress there b4 I top up much more....

Hopefully these shuttles will fund the overall expansion of my own UCS collection...

I for one like the selling limits as it does give everyone a chance and the big whale cannot just clean up....

LP

momof2boys99

IS is still regular price at Toys R Us while DA is gone from Toys R Us. So, I think the pressure right now is to buy the DA from Amazon if anyone needs more. Toys R Us still has the IS, ME, and Hillside House in stock.

Basta

I can still see it on TRU site, the HP Section has been removed but #10217 is under "Hard To Find" but is sold out, which it has been for a long time now. Interestinly at some point recently, they dropped the price back to $149.99 from $159.99 all the while being sold out (Unless it came back in stock for a short time.)

momof2boys99

@Basta...it seems like they did drop some prices to regular price this week. They call it a "Hot Price".....we call it normal.

momof2boys99

Does anyone find it interesting that with all of the new sets out right now, that the TMNT are all in the TOP 25 at Lego.com? Why are all the other themes new sets missing from the Top 25? I do think the TMNT look neat. I am seeing what you guys thought.

prevere

It would be impossible, but I'd like to know the Top 25 for kids and Top 25 for young adults, and grown adults too.

Personally, I'm still not comfortable with TMNT in Lego.

Yodalicious

^I agree. It doesn't work for me. I remember having all the action figures when I was a kid. With LEGO always being my top toy, I would have thought I would welcome this, but I'm not too high on it. Just ignoring it and moving on. Someone wake me when the He-Man sets come out in 2016.

Yodalicious

^Obviously kidding. Although I would buy an Orko minifig.

prevere

^Or Kowl from She-ra.

momof2boys99

@prevere it would be nice if they had different lists...but we know that won't happen.
My house was excited for the new SuperHeroes and Star Wars. I thought that more Friends or Ninjago or something else would dominate with the kiddos, but I guess for today it is TMNT. Good to know....:o)