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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,286
    I think the market for FB has been satiated for about a year now.. the only reason for the high demand were primarily speculators buying sets.. Now it is just an over estimation that the sets would continue to do well.
    Ill probably still buy 1 or 2 even though I have a few... if push comes to shove I just use them for brick for building other things, since the dark red brick is a nice color.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    ^ Exactly. I don't have a ton of FBs, but at some point if I can't sell them for profit, the pieces themselves are well worth having - dark tan and dark red are always winners.
  • JP3804JP3804 Member Posts: 332
    ^
    ^^
    Agree with both of you.
    FB has been on sale more than any of the other modular's. I think Lego is going to milk these for everything they can get. Why retire them when they are still profitable?
    I bought my second one just for the parts. I will pick up a few more also. Worse case I will have one h*ll of a nice MOC.

    Do you gentalmen think Town Halls new standard price will be $179.99? It has been there for some time now and there was a lot of grumbling about the $199.99 price. Maybe it wasn't selling well.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ^ I actually agree with all of you. I only have a few Fire Brigades. I got one with a hole in the box and just plan on using it for parts.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    Back when the FB had the production issue with whichever lot number it was, I had just ordered 10 of them from SAH. All 10 had the lot in question, so I asked Lego for the replacement bag. They wouldn't send it without me opening all the sets, so I sent all 10 back and exchanged for grand emporiums. I have not bought a fire brigade since then. It was interesting to me that Lego would rather spend way more in shipping something 2-3 times (first order, return order, exchange order) than to just send me 10 small bags as one shipment. The pieces could not have possibly cost as much as all that shipping did.

    I think th FB is an awesome set, but realize I won't make a ton of money on it.
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    cloaked7 said:

    In my opinion two ways for LEGO to ruin the after market for a set is to have it current for too long and produce too many. That is, over supply it.

    The aftermarket is created after an item retires. LEGO can't ruin the aftermarket for Fire Brigade because the aftermarket doesn't yet exist. What you are mentioning as being ruined is people's aspirations.
    y2joshBumblepantsLegoFanTexas
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    FB is the litmus test for GE, PS, and the other active modulars. The last modular to actually retire is...the Green Grocer in Nov 10. That is 25 months ago!!!
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ^In a way, but I think Lego produced more Fire Brigades than GE and Pet Shop. I think both the Pet Shop and GE will do better than FB.
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    Pitfall69 said:

    ^In a way, but I think Lego produced more Fire Brigades than GE and Pet Shop. I think both the Pet Shop and GE will do better than FB.

    IMO i think FB will be like those star wars UCS sets that just never seemed to take off on the EOL market 10174 and 10175
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    I think FB will do ok. It is harder now to get excited about new modulars such as the movie theater since I know I have 5-6 years to buy it....a regular retirement schedule for the modulars would have helped the collectibility of the entire line....maybe TLG should do a first run with some added exclusive figs and different box art to keep the excitement going despite the massive oversupply.
  • lulwutlulwut Member Posts: 417

    I think FB will do ok. It is harder now to get excited about new modulars such as the movie theater since I know I have 5-6 years to buy it....a regular retirement schedule for the modulars would have helped the collectibility of the entire line....maybe TLG should do a first run with some added exclusive figs and different box art to keep the excitement going despite the massive oversupply.

    I'm plenty excited for the new modular even with its indefinite time in production. TLG knows new collectors jump in every year, so it makes little sense to prematurely stop production when they can squeeze in as many buyers as they can. Either way they win because right when they retire a set, demand all of a sudden jumps and the rest of the inventory gets sold at a minimal discount--if anyone has taken an microeconomics course, it's analogous to the coupon strategy.
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693

    FYI: [email protected] has updated the site to mark the items that were just recently retired. ie Hillside House 5771, Mandalorian battle pack 7914, etc.

    Interesting to see #5771 retired while the more senior #5891 enters it's fourth year on the market, as it's part of the 2013 assortment.
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    edited December 2012

    I think FB will do ok. It is harder now to get excited about new modulars such as the movie theater since I know I have 5-6 years to buy it....a regular retirement schedule for the modulars would have helped the collectibility of the entire line....maybe TLG should do a first run with some added exclusive figs and different box art to keep the excitement going despite the massive oversupply.

    True, by extending the life of products Lego may be making profits in the short run and think its a good idea but if this is going to be a common thing then its an extremely bad plan they are making, it will completely ruin the desirability and exclusiveness of future and current sets, the excitement of having the opportunity to buy a relatively short lived product while you can will be completely gone, and thats half of the fun with all the big exclusive sets.
  • 2011Legomaniac2011Legomaniac Member Posts: 32
    Hi, not sure if this has been talked about yet, but...Wow!, have you seen how fast 10219 Masersk Train has risen in a month or so. Its fetching about 200 on Ebay, pretty much what Emerald nights is still going for. I had a good feeling about 10219 because I really liked the looks of it. Just wished I would've gotten more than the 20 or so that I have. I remember buying some on amazon jus a month ago for 115.
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748

    Hi, not sure if this has been talked about yet, but...Wow!, have you seen how fast 10219 Masersk Train has risen in a month or so. Its fetching about 200 on Ebay, pretty much what Emerald nights is still going for. I had a good feeling about 10219 because I really liked the looks of it. Just wished I would've gotten more than the 20 or so that I have. I remember buying some on amazon jus a month ago for 115.

    Yep I said it would rise quickly. It doesnt appear to have the same appeal as EN, however this EOL'd quite suddenly, thus reducing the number of speculators. I managed to grab 22 of these, however I chose to sell only 2 of them prior to Christmas as I believe they will be 300+ by next christmas

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ^The Maserk Train has been talked about earlier in the thread. We were trying to get an idea on what we should expect in the aftermarket. We were comparing it to the Santa Fe Super Chief and the BNSF. We haven't commented on its recent performance.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    I will be happy with $220 + shipping for my 10219's. I have not doubt it will get there quite soon, especially to my overseas customers. Purchased all at $100 or below, less selling fees that is 100% return, and i'm on to the next set to grind (hopefully a retiring modular lol). I have no clue what it will fetch eventually....exclusive colors and part out value will surely help....maybe $275 by end of 2013?....once I sell out at 100% profit I never look back.
  • RichBRichB Member Posts: 52
    I bought 6,10219's plus 1 that I built. I knew I should've bought more of these ohwell.....
  • mgsmgs Member Posts: 3
    Hello! I got a bunch of series 8 minifigures from recent sales and I am wondering what minifigures from this series are worth keeping sealed for later trading? Thanks!
  • yys4uyys4u USA SoCalMember Posts: 1,092
    IMO minifigures seem to have lost some of their aftermarket value. Maybe that's just because personally, I stopped looking for them after they are gone and haven't had the urge to army build many figures. But when judging the value of minifigures, its best to look at which ones have new pieces, and which ones people will want multiples of. With that said, I think the figures that will be popular once gone will be the

    Deep Sea Diver
    Conquistador
    Football Player
    Pirate
    Thespian

    I'm not too sure on the pirate or thespian because as figures alone there is no real need to get multiples, but I've seen a lot of really good MOCs on other forums where LEGO pirate fanatics have taken the torsos from both figures to make different armies.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Trains always seem to do well once EOL'd, plus I really like the Maersk color scheme...

    As for #5891, my oldest daughter received one for Christmas. She'd been wanting this set for a couple years and promptly built all three configurations within a few days after Christmas. She has just never been as enthusiastic about #5771. Maybe that's the general consensus and why #5891 is still going strong.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ The Apple Tree House is a very nice looking set, and attractively priced relative to other house sets. I think that a couple of reasons for the Hillside House not being as popular are 1 - it being a TRU exclusive. 2 - it was a bit pricey and typically marked up $10 above RRP by TRU. So silly. Course, as it is now, you could find it marked down now and again. I think it will do well after EOL (which is now, correct?) if you got them at a discount.
  • BrianBrian Guest Posts: 87
    edited December 2012
    Looks like #4439 Heavy Duty Helicopter is failing. I see boat loads at every WM and Target I've been to recently. I'm sure they would move much quicker at 10 cents per piece for $39.99 rather than 12.7c at $49.99
  • legoprodslegoprods SpainMember Posts: 445
    Santa?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,286
    edited December 2012
    Pitfall69 said:

    ^ I actually agree with all of you. I only have a few Fire Brigades. I got one with a hole in the box and just plan on using it for parts.

    That is exactly what I do with boxes with damage.. it is 'My' set to open and build then :-)

    Pitfall69 said:

    ^In a way, but I think Lego produced more Fire Brigades than GE and Pet Shop. I think both the Pet Shop and GE will do better than FB.

    IMO i think FB will be like those star wars UCS sets that just never seemed to take off on the EOL market 10174 and 10175
    I had to laugh a little at this remark.. The Mods will always go up, all because of supply and demand.. People will always want a mod, and more importantly a mod that is a Fire House when I doubt LEGO will re-do the mod that already exists, which is probably another reason for it to be out for this long. Also the colors in it are nice as well. Just look at the demand for a 'regular' City Fire station right now. It will rise,and I'm guessing will double its price regardless of how many are out there.. will it take longer? Probably, but like Rocao said, it is just the people's aspirations that will not be met.

    Hi, not sure if this has been talked about yet, but...Wow!, have you seen how fast 10219 Masersk Train has risen in a month or so. Its fetching about 200 on Ebay, pretty much what Emerald nights is still going for. I had a good feeling about 10219 because I really liked the looks of it. Just wished I would've gotten more than the 20 or so that I have. I remember buying some on amazon jus a month ago for 115.

    IMO Maersk train going up in price as it has in EOL was not much of a stretch based on the EN prices despite the dearth of them and the fact it isa train, it is Maersk Blue to top it off a container type set where multiples would probably be wanted AND in Minifig scale where you could get the Maersk blue construction hard hats.
    I would not be surprised if the Maersk train leap-frogs the EN in terms of demand by next Christmas.
    I think the only thing that would slow it down is if LEGO re-released it on Maersk's demand.
  • tinkersouthernbelletinkersouthernbelle USAMember Posts: 1
    I have about 10 sets that I have collected over the past 5 yrs that I'm saving for resell one day.

    I've been taking advantage of the Walmart 50% sale and I need to know if I should return any of these b/c low resell value? Also any that I should get more of? Thanks for your advice!!!

    Visiting family in a different state tonight and visited the local walmart. I had picked up about 5 sets (Dino Trapper & Hunter, Recycle Truck) in my hometown walmarts. Tonight I hit a JACKPOT!
    But some of the ones mentioned in other threads as discounted, were not discounted at these walmarts. Are there any Superheros, Monsters, or LoTR ringing up 50% off for anyone? Mines of Moria was not and I checked several others but it seemed like nothing in these groups are discounted.
    Here is what I got (some for my kids, some for gifts and some to hold for future resell)

    Dino Pteranodon Tower #5883 $9.50 (had more, only got 1)
    Dino Raptor Chase #5884 $14.50 (had more, got 2)
    They had T-tops Trapper and T-Rex Hunter but I already got those from other walmarts. Should I have gotten more for resell?
    City Mining Truck #4202 $17 (had several more, got 1)
    City Police Dog Van #4441 $17 (got 2)
    City Ambulance #4431 $9.50 (got 2)
    City Car & Caravan #4435 $9.50 (got 3)
    City Space Center #3368 $34.50
    City Satellite Launch Pad #3366 $9.50
    City Harbor #4645: $44.50
    Star Wars Sith Nightspeeder #7957 $12 (got 2, gifts???)
    Star Wars Ewok Attack #7956 $12 (got 2, had TONS)
    Ninjago Pangpyre Truck Ambush #9445 $24.50 (got 2)
    Ninjago Pangpyre Mech #9455 $12
    Ninjago Jay's Storm Fighter #9442 $12 (box damaged)

    Star Wars:
    My kids have lost interest in this group so I left a lot behind. Should I go back and pickup any of this for future resell? Here is what I left behind assuming these are 50% discounted: Geonosian Cannon, Republic Frigate, Geonosian Starfighter,
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    You can't go wrong buying the Frigate for $50, which seems to be what others are finding them for.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    Did anyone ever make that 'I have no idea what I'm doing but want to make some $$$!!!, so can people please tell me exactly what to do?' thread that we can move this to?
    LURKERnumber2149legoprodstheayeshaveitUKtsuminerick906
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    edited December 2012
    @tinkersouthernbelle I would stick with sets that you find appealing. This will give you a clue as to what others will be willing to pay a premium for in the future. Good luck.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Bandit said:

    Did anyone ever make that 'I have no idea what I'm doing but want to make some $$$!!!, so can people please tell me exactly what to do?' thread that we can move this to?

    If we did that, we could easily remove 100 pages :)

  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    I found a whole end cap full of Ninjago sets tonight at 50% off. I looked them up on Ebay and they are selling for well over regular price. Should I buy them? I think thats a 100% mark up, but I'm not sure. In the end, I decided to pass on them as I just don't get the whole Ninjago thing.
    FatMattpharmjodBandit
  • 2011Legomaniac2011Legomaniac Member Posts: 32
    I wasn't really into the Ninjago thing at first either...until I sold some myself, and saw how profitable they can be, and how much demand there is for it. Looks like I'm going to have to visit some walmarts myself, and hope there's some Ninjagos left. Personally, I would pick up pretty much all the Ninjagos I saw at 50% off. You shouldn't have a hard time 2x or 3x your investment on these, in the near future, IMO.

  • Thanos75Thanos75 Member Posts: 1,120
    Burp
  • UKtsumiUKtsumi Member Posts: 627
    edited December 2012
    'I have no idea what I'm doing but want to make some $$$!!!, so can people please tell me exactly what to do?'
    Buy as many DS #10188 as you can afford.
    :)

    FollowsClosely
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    ^And Construct-a-Zurg #7591....Ha!
    BumblepantsFatMattPenkid11
  • RichBRichB Member Posts: 52
    I picked up the last 2, 5770's (lighthouse island) at my local Lego store. Not sure how this set will do in the future, but it is unique and another lighthouse set probably won't be made for awhile. Just curious what everyone's opinion is on the future for this set?
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    RichB said:

    I picked up the last 2, 5770's (lighthouse island) at my local Lego store. Not sure how this set will do in the future, but it is unique and another lighthouse set probably won't be made for awhile. Just curious what everyone's opinion is on the future for this set?

    I think it will eventually make 2 x RRP but would probably take 2 years to comfortably sell them at that price. I've given this one a miss as Ive not seen it discounted much and I like to sell 90% of my stock 12 Months post EOL. There are more fruitful purchases to be made, but you will still make money from it given time IMO.

  • RichBRichB Member Posts: 52
    ^^^ yeah I should've picked up more 10219's and QAR's a couple months ago. I only grabbed the 5770 because they were the last 2 in stock at the store the manager said, and it's a set that is unique and probably a little under the radar. I'd be more than happy getting $80+ a piece for them in a couple years. Time will tell....
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    Be sure to buy all the Joker and Green Lantern Bionicle style figures, as they are sleepers.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    @gmpirate
    IMO you should wait for 70% off or more on those Ninjago sets.
  • atxleeatxlee Member Posts: 155
    Do people really expect serious advice on what to buy and sell?
  • CrownieCrownie WA StateMember Posts: 228
    atxlee said:

    Do people really expect serious advice on what to buy and sell?

    That may depend on who's delivering the advice...

    ;-)

  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    atxlee said:

    Do people really expect serious advice on what to buy and sell?

    Advise is subjective, although if you look at my advice 2 years down the line, Id like to think that 99% of it rung true :-)

    If I was living in the US Id hire out a van - drive around the states and pick up as many 10231's as possible, Im sure Toys R us will have supplies in certain stores left over. As far as Im aware its EOL throughout. I did try to get a few more - but can no longer find any online supplies.

    I think Horizon Express will eventually follow the same track - no pun intended ;-) as EN but wont do as well EOL as the Maersk.


  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited December 2012
    Don't think I'll drive all over the US looking for Shuttles, but I think it will be a successful set. Selling for $200 next Christmas? Maybe even $250 or $300?

    I was hoping it would have been marked down after Christmas, but most were gone by then.
  • legoprodslegoprods SpainMember Posts: 445
    Just wanted to share that, for more than a week now, FB and GE have both been out of stock from all the european amazon sites. Maybe?
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    legoprods said:

    Just wanted to share that, for more than a week now, FB and GE have both been out of stock from all the european amazon sites. Maybe?

    Ive made many enquires to Lego about these sets and each time Im told FB is EOL Dec 2013 and GE is Dec 2014. No guarantees of course but based on the evidence Ive gathered then FB it is for me.

    I dont think FB will last until then though.

  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    gmpirate said:

    I found a whole end cap full of Ninjago sets tonight at 50% off. I looked them up on Ebay and they are selling for well over regular price. Should I buy them? I think thats a 100% mark up, but I'm not sure. In the end, I decided to pass on them as I just don't get the whole Ninjago thing.

    I finally found large stocks of Ninjago last night and bought all I could find. They are no brainers in my book, particularly because they have been so hard to find at the 50% off sales. I had to go way out of my way to find any and was only able to find them at stores that don't appear to sell a lot of Lego. One store still has Space Police sets on clearance.

  • PicopiratePicopirate Member Posts: 323
    Do any lines perform better than others? I am considering reselling a few sets here and there to fund my personal purchases. My strategy is to buy sets that I would not mind keeping (just in case I am unable to sell). However, a lot of times stores run sales on particular lines that I do not collect. The extra savings makes these lines more attractive for resale but I would prefer to stick to strong product lines.
  • UKtsumiUKtsumi Member Posts: 627
    ^ follow the shopping thread, it will give you a better idea of what's a good buy or not.
    mak
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Was Diagon Alley ever confirmed as EOL? It's not on that list but since it is discounted at B&M's . . .
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