Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

Yodalicious

They should be around a while as I'm sure TLG hopes the Hobbit movie renews some interest. Who knows about future lines though. Lots of rumors at this point. Would imagine less than desired sales numbers leaves it up in the air at the moment.

coachie

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SiE

10231 has gone in the uk. EOL'd about 4 weeks ago

prevere

At least temporarily, the Minecraft smash n grab profit race has been suspended. S@H has been in stock all day (albeit 1 per person). I see multiple Craigslist posting for the set at $85 (and they've been there for weeks).

Yea, yea, yea, I know it's the day after Xmas and budgets and loose cash have been blown up - but this was just so hot, and now it's cooling quickly I think. Very interesting.

Bandit

^ same exact thing happened last time stock came in after being gone for awhile. It will go back up after it's out of stock again. (If it goes out again).

legoprods

I mean, it's been in stock for about a month in European sites, and with a limit of five per customer. I even found a glitch and I can order as many as I can, and they do honor my orders. Already got two orders with 25 minecrafts each order.

Probably I'm not the only one who knows that, and probably shipments of 100+ minecrafts have arrived to the US...

madforLEGO

TB is back on backorder at S@H

natron20

Well, mission accomplished. Traveled to TLS (3 hrs, one way) to return the VW Bus with hopes of catching a sale. Turns out no sale existed and they, not surprisingly, refused to price match. So, I ordered 10214 from amazon AND 10231 from TRU.

If anyone has a helmet, I would like to borrow it for when I tell my wife. TIA.

RichB

Has anyone noticed that many of the sets that have sold out on S@H U.S recently have gone to 'Retired Product' yet the BP and QAR have remained at just 'Sold Out'. I wonder why this is? Could we see the BP and QAR return?? I hope they go to retired product soon, just strange that they still haven't, yet some other sets have, like 10219 for example.

ogelogel

TB was OOS at my local Lego store last week. I saw they got TB in stock today in store, even GE.

FatMatt

10212 Imperial Shuttle is showing Sold Out at S@H. They are still $240 on Amazon if you haven't gotten one yet. Be sure to check your gold box as you may find it in there.

ogelogel

Need advise, are the advent calendar really worth buying (<10)? Friends, City, SW? I bought a few of each.

prevere

I have an extra Friends calendar. Extremely disappointed with it. I can't see it having much value. I wish I could get my $35 back for each I bought. Day 24 we get a table with some perfume. A Friends fig with a santa hat is what it called for.

ogelogel

I got 4 friends sets and a few SW and City. Thinking return them for a while. I have not open Friends yet.

BoiseState

The Santa Maul and snowman R2 are cool.

madforLEGO

RichB said:

Has anyone noticed that many of the sets that have sold out on S@H U.S recently have gone to 'Retired Product' yet the BP and QAR have remained at just 'Sold Out'. I wonder why this is? Could we see the BP and QAR return?? I hope they go to retired product soon, just strange that they still haven't, yet some other sets have, like 10219 for example.

That does not mean anything. I think the thought about this is that the 'Retiring Soon' designation is to sell sets to be discontinued before they have to clearance them. Plus I think QAR and BP retired some time before the 'retiring soon' designation came out
Because they sell out without that designation does not mean anything. There have been a lot of sets that have sold out before getting that Retiring soon and they are gone for good (at least a few have now disappeared from site altogether)

Now, this does not stop LEGO (Well, as long as they have the license) from re-doing the BP and QAR when the new movie is released. But I believe the QAR and BP and the rest of the PoTC line is done until another movie comes out.

flyingpig

Well, another (two) PoTC movie(s) are in the works. Expected 2015 I think. I wonder how long LEGO has the license.

madforLEGO

Considering how long LEGO apparently had the HP license Im guessing there is a stipulation in the agreement that LEGO would have rights to make sets for the next two movies.. but that is just a guess

avoiceoreason

Was at my local store yesterday, and they had stacks of GEs laying about. Most were in the center of the store where they usually put sale stuff they are trying to move. They were still regular price, but it was just odd to see so many of them just stacked on top of each other. The release of the new Palace Theater (a corner) got me wondering whether they may be getting set to discount GE and get rid of the remaining stock.

I seem to recall them doing additional discounting around New Year's in the past. Probably nothing to it, but it got me wondering.

thehockeyboy

Is it me, or did Lego seriously scale back on the Star Wars Calendars this year? Last year I remember the shelves stuffed with them at Target and it was easy to wait until 70% off ($12). This year, I may have seen a total of 5 sets in my tour of WM/Targets.

My price point to buy these was $20, but I doubt I'll find them. Luckily I had bought quite a few from S@H on BF with the half off + 10% off + double points + free holiday set

Dougout

^^ @avoiceoreason my store had a similar set up. The GEs were not in the center of the store, but they were in three different display spots throughout the store. One in the normal spot, one by the technics and one where all the city stuff is. FB also filled up two slots. My store has been fervently warning people of the upcoming GE/FB vanishing act, so I assume this is just another tactic to get even more sales before they are discontinued.

Brixy

^^ in my area there were tons of star wars advent calendars last year and they did make it to the 70%off sale. this time we were lucky to find one at the half off sale at walmart yesterday. there were only three and were gone in an instant.

itsnotme

I know this has been discussed in bits and pieces, so apologies for re-hashing, but any thoughts on whether the 7965 MF at 25% off RRP (BOGO 50%) at TRU is a good deal? Did we determine that it’s likely not EOL since S@H is showing a January shipping date?

prevere

^On 7965 - not a very good deal. $140 + $70 = $210 for two of them. However if it's leaving us soon - you really don't have a lot of other options right now for discounts.

But S@H shows out of stock with delivery in Jan, so that tells me another year. Back in May, TRU had a deal to get these for $79 with discounts. I'm waiting for that again.

rasmustali

There have been no indications to show that 7965 will be gone before summer or even 2014.

RichB

madforLEGO said:

RichB said:

Has anyone noticed that many of the sets that have sold out on S@H U.S recently have gone to 'Retired Product' yet the BP and QAR have remained at just 'Sold Out'. I wonder why this is? Could we see the BP and QAR return?? I hope they go to retired product soon, just strange that they still haven't, yet some other sets have, like 10219 for example.

That does not mean anything. I think the thought about this is that the 'Retiring Soon' designation is to sell sets to be discontinued before they have to clearance them. Plus I think QAR and BP retired some time before the 'retiring soon' designation came out
Because they sell out without that designation does not mean anything. There have been a lot of sets that have sold out before getting that Retiring soon and they are gone for good (at least a few have now disappeared from site altogether)

Now, this does not stop LEGO (Well, as long as they have the license) from re-doing the BP and QAR when the new movie is released. But I believe the QAR and BP and the rest of the PoTC line is done until another movie comes out.

Correct, the QAR went to 'Sold Out' prior to the 'Retiring Soon' label. What I was referring to was 'Sold Out' vs. 'Retired Product'. The Maersk Train went from 'available' to 'sold out' to 'retired product' all during the time that the BP and QAR were and still are labeled as 'sold out'. I just find it interesting how inconsistent Lego is with their labels.

Dougout

prevere said:

^On 7965 - not a very good deal. $140 + $70 = $210 for two of them. However if it's leaving us soon - you really don't have a lot of other options right now for discounts.

But S@H shows out of stock with delivery in Jan, so that tells me another year. Back in May, TRU had a deal to get these for $79 with discounts. I'm waiting for that again.

I would say $110 for #7965 is not bad. It can be typically found on sale at this price point, but 25% off is a pretty good deal. If one has the time and patience to wait for a bigger sale, than that is an option, especially if it is staying another whole year. I've grabbed all mine at around $100

gmpirate

It is time for it to go, been oos in all b&m's, Walmart discounted and cleared them out a while ago, gone from TRU b&M, no longer at Target . . . Seems all the signs are there - Lego retired list aside.

prevere

Good point from both of you guys. Maybe I'll get a couple just in case it decides to disappear.

monkeyhanger

^That pic could be a great way for storing the MF. Imagine a huge UCS MF bolted to a wall painted up like the rear of a Star Destroyers bridge/command tower.

madforLEGO

I'd be pretty shocked if the Falcon is gone this soon. It is a staple of the SW universe and I would say the only reason why it goes is so LEGO can make a better version of it.

gmpirate

^ History has it always coming and going like the Republic Gunship and Turbo Tank. Only the X-Wing has always been available.

gmpirate

oos TRU now

thehockeyboy

Lego alarm clocks and watches: do buyers have any interest in them? And they get discontinued like the sets and increase in value?

Ma1234

Milennium Falcon is in the 2013 German catalog (LEGO still publishes those big glossy catalogs in Europe bi-annually). It's staying. Nothing to debate.

dragonhawk

^ Maersk Train was in the 2012 Holiday catalog.. and now we know its fate

gmpirate

^^ I found a ton of the clocks on sale at 9.50 (66% off). I bought some last year at 50% off and it took forever to sell them. At $9.50 you may have a better margin to work with but imo they are not worth the hassle.

Ma1234

dragonhawk said:

^ Maersk Train was in the 2012 Holiday catalog.. and now we know its fate

I'm not talking about Shop at Home catalogs.

LEGO publishes a bi-annual catalog in Europe distributed at retailers showing the 2013 product assortment.

thehockeyboy

FYI: S@H has updated the site to mark the items that were just recently retired. ie Hillside House 5771, Mandalorian battle pack 7914, etc.

kim43235

^^ I've sold 4 Ninjago Jay watches over the holiday and now I have one left. I think it sells well during holiday season but not expecting sell well after holiday is done. I've bought a few Ninjago alarm clock at $9.50 from walmart today. It was too good to pass. If it doesn't get sell well then it should be a good gift for boy's birthday gifts at least.

prevere

I find a lot of the stuff I buy to resell ends up as gifts.

kim43235

There were about 10 DS at around $300 from amazon warehouse deals since last night. I snatched a few and now they are all gone. I think there will be more warehouse deals coming up as holiday is almost done and returns are flooding.

One thing about warehouse deal which I find odd, once the price is set, they never change. I noticed that warehouse prices are set by average current price minus some percent off. So if a set is out of stock then it's averaged by resellers high prices and price tag is steep. That's why we see all higher prices for retired sets. Once amazon restocks them, sometimes warehouse prices are higher than amazon price. I thought it will automatically adjust warehouse price but it never did.

itsnotme

JP3804 said:

TOYS R US has 10231 on line for list price and free shipping.

eToys.com has 10231 for $94.99 (5% off RRP) and free shipping.

doriansdad

Looking to get some 10231 to resell myself. Won't pay over $75 tho....need a sale from TRU or a mastercard deal of some kind.

madforLEGO

Interesting, did someone else buy etoys? I though TRU bought them some years ago

itsnotme

Yes, it is owned by TRU. It's odd - the website is extremely similar but prices are slightly different (and more reasonable). For example, it appears that most or all of the $100+ sets are listed at RRP on eToys but many are over RRP at TRU. Also, if you have a TRU store in your state eToys will charge you sales tax.

cloaked7

I see the FB has been on Amazon for $120 (20% off) for days. The set has been out for a long time, recently has be discounted a lot, and I have the impression that resellers have a lot of inventory of it. So, I don't see it being much of a money maker in the after market. Especially relative to other sets. There are many others that will outperform it, and do so much faster.

In my opinion two ways for LEGO to ruin the after market for a set is to have it current for too long and produce too many. That is, over supply it. That can happen with any set and can crush the after market, no matter how nice the set is. I think they've done that with the FB.

JP3804

^ Agree. A year ago @ that price it would have been gone in hours.

BlueMoonUSA

kim43235 said:

One thing about warehouse deal which I find odd, once the price is set, they never change. I noticed that warehouse prices are set by average current price minus some percent off. So if a set is out of stock then it's averaged by resellers high prices and price tag is steep. That's why we see all higher prices for retired sets. Once amazon restocks them, sometimes warehouse prices are higher than amazon price. I thought it will automatically adjust warehouse price but it never did.

There was a time when...not too long ago actually, when AWD prices would actually always be a percentage off the original RRP of the item, whether Amazon currently had that item in regular stock or not.
You'd be able to snag a 10175 Advanced Tie for about $80 if this was 2 years ago :)

Pitfall69

cloaked7 said:

I see the FB has been on Amazon for $120 (20% off) for days. The set has been out for a long time, recently has be discounted a lot, and I have the impression that resellers have a lot of inventory of it. So, I don't see it being much of a money maker in the after market. Especially relative to other sets. There are many others that will outperform it, and do so much faster.

In my opinion two ways for LEGO to ruin the after market for a set is to have it current for too long and produce too many. That is, over supply it. That can happen with any set and can crush the after market, no matter how nice the set is. I think they've done that with the FB.

JP3804 said:

^ Agree. A year ago @ that price it would have been gone in hours.

I don't think it is completely because resellers have a ton of stock. A few months ago, FB was on sale for $101 [US] I think resellers are trying to maximize their profit. I believe a lot of those sets were bought during that sale. I do agree that FB won't be a huge profit maker, but I see a max of $225-250 after EOL. Just my thoughts.