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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    What about the Imperial Shuttle? Does anyone consider this a good investment? I apologize if I missed an earlier mention.
    I think it will be some day. Just like the UCS Star Destroyer and Death Star were duds until after they retired. Lego was discounting them for the longest time to get rid of them. Now look at the prices. Imo, just wait until they are discounted. I put the Super Star Destroyer in the same category. They just aren't "playable" sets.
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    I just tried to pick one up today, was haggling with the guy, turns out he bought it 6 months ago. When I realized that, I realized that we were just trading sealed sets among resellers and passed, told him nicely that if we're both trying to resell it, there are too many middlemen in the picture.

    Last 10179 I bought off Craigslist for $1,300, sold it in a month for a $300 profit on eBay. Can't complain about that, so long as it went to a home that opens it, otherwise we have a bubble.
    Once we start having resellers selling to resellers, we are definitely in a classic asset bubble because as soon as the people who are now willing to pay the highest prices for the sets as investments find out that prices won't continue to climb...game over. Pretty scary to hear that story.

  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    Thanks @gmpirate for all of your insight. It's always fascinating to me to hear about how LEGO fits into one's family life, and your views on what is and isn't valuable in the LEGO lineup.

    To me, the At-At has been rereleased to many times to get too valuable. The motorized version was the standout of the releases - that one has some legs to grow in value.

    Do all LEGO Stores get shipments on Mondays?

    Thanks!
    -Dan
  • avoiceoreasonavoiceoreason Member Posts: 224
    edited December 2011
    To me, the At-At has been rereleased to many times to get too valuable. The motorized version was the standout of the releases - that one has some legs to grow in value.

    Do all LEGO Stores get shipments on Mondays?

    Thanks!
    -Dan
    Dunno, but my Lego store is also getting it's last pre-Christmas shipment today (Monday).

    I happened upon the motorized At-At last year about a week or two after Christmas. It was sitting behind the cash register in my local Lego store. Someone had returned it, so I picked it up on clearance for around $60.

    Now I am torn between giving it to my boys or selling it (to fund other Lego purchases of course!).
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654

    To me, the At-At has been rereleased to many times to get too valuable. The motorized version was the standout of the releases - that one has some legs to grow in value.

    Do all LEGO Stores get shipments on Mondays?

    Thanks!
    -Dan
    True, but the AT-AT is already selling for a premium -- in a flooded market even. Always a good seller regardless. 10178 really has not increased in value much. Still holding on to mine.

    In any case, I figure any sets doing well during Christmas time is a good buy since prices are a little surpressed with all the supply. Sets selling at retail, or close to retail, on Ebay when they are not retired yet are good indicators as well.

    I tend to sell just my miscellaneous and promo sets at Christmas time and save the others for the rest of the year when the market is not as flooded.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited December 2011
    The first year or so they could handle going with me but nowadays they don't want to go and just watch me buy Lego for myself :P
    We don't have a lego store in the state where we live, but there is one located close to my in-laws. Every year we go visit, I give them each $25-50 each to spend on sets and we spend almost 2 hours in the store getting their money spent. My wife even enjoys visiting the store, and the employees are very nice. My favorite part is filling up the plastic cup with as many legos as I can get into it (I've got it down to an art). They had a lego apple they were giving out and they gave us one for spending $75. Needless to say, my wife was happy.

    As far as AT-ATs go, the Lego CS rep said that the more recent one to sell out was the 4th version. They said they would be surprised if lego didn't release more versions in the future.

    As for the Tower Bridge, I would be really surprised if it was gone in less than 2 years. Too much effort and marketing went into launching that particular product and it will only go if its sales are terrible (which I really doubt they are). It looks like a really fun set to build.

    I think the Super Hero and LOTR sets may cannabilize the SW sets to some degree. Furthermore I think SW is going to begin struggling from a market perspective going forward for the following reasons:

    1) People only have so much disposable income to spend on legos and the new sets compete well against SW
    2) SW has been out for over a decade
    3) SW has done a million versions of every ship
    4) There are no SW movies coming out to promote the new sets
    5) Licensing fees make SW sets more expensive to the consumer and to Lego
    6) Lego has been releasing some really nice sets that compete well against SW (QAR, BP, TB, etc.), and I can imagine that Lego is looking to the future when SW is no longer part of their business plan.

    In short, I would be mildly surprised not to see several SW sets included on the after-Christmas sale in an effort to scale back the SW product offering. I realize I am going out on a limb, but the series is starting to get old and repetitive and Lego has to know this.

    JMO...
  • MatthewMatthew Cheshire, UKAdministrator Posts: 3,735
    EN is still sold out in the UK
    Shame...
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    @Farmer_John I think they are releases 3D versions of all 6 films in theaters. Also, there is the Clone Wars cartoon to consider. Overall, my gut is that the machine behind Star Wars understands that they can't have a dark period like they did from 1985-1995, that they need to always be getting the next generation indoctrinated into the story.
  • brclark82brclark82 Member Posts: 217
    IF back in stock on amazon with over 1000 in stock.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    @Farmer_John I think they are releases 3D versions of all 6 films in theaters. Also, there is the Clone Wars cartoon to consider. Overall, my gut is that the machine behind Star Wars understands that they can't have a dark period like they did from 1985-1995, that they need to always be getting the next generation indoctrinated into the story.
    I don't disagree about SW's relevance to TLG, but I do think there will be burnout at some point and sales will slow. The re-release of the films has been done a couple times now so that Lucas Films can add their CGI effects. However, it doesn't add story line, new ships, etc. The only new story lines are coming from the Clone Wars, and I don't think CW is nearly as widely distributed as the original 6 films. NOW...if Lucas could hire a good writer (he clearly has the means...but unfortunately his ego won't let him), this series could be rejuvenated through new and better movies (and actors).

    A big question is the Lego-Lucas Films contract. Does the contract include any guarantees or is it based on a fixed per-set rate? I have no idea, but it will certainly impact TLG's profitability. And if SW begins not turning a profit, it will be cut. The good news for TLG is that they already have the molds and infrastructure to produce SW sets. Producing too big a variety of sets and placing all one's eggs in one basket is risky and difficult to manage. All things considered, I can see TLG paring back on the number of SW sets that are available and focusing on newer sets that may be more profitable. I like SW sets; however, I am really excited about Superheros, LOTR, and the other new stuff...actually more so than any new SW sets as they will likely be repeats of older sets.

    Again, JMO.
  • llanowarsoldierllanowarsoldier Ohio USAMember Posts: 357
    Was at my local Lego store today here in Columbus and the manager told me that on the 26th if there are any sets left in the themes we will see these on sale:

    Atlantis
    Harry Potter(doubt any will be in stores as sold out EVERYWHERE)
    PotC(except BP)
    Pharaos Quest(barely any left of these)
    Some SW items: Mainly TIV, Republic Dropship, Slave 1, Battle Packs, Endor, and Obi-Wan's Starfighter
    Winter Village Sets
    Ninjago 1st wave
    Toy Story
    Early Architecture sets

    Out of all those lines I want to pick up, if available, Whitecap Bay, Republic Dropship, Slave 1, Endor and Winter Toy Shop. Also, might pick up a Fallingwater.

    Also, the store was looking sort of picked over even with them getting in a truck today. I'm glad though that I got my City Tipper Truck, and the DC sets sold out within 1 hour I was told.
  • coolpixcoolpix Member Posts: 357
    SW still goes strong. I agree that the B&M stores has almost 1/5 of the store dedicated to these sets, and this section must be smaller, but regardless the fact of no new movies coming out, I don't see SW being retired by LEGO anytime soon.

    I appreciate the fact that LEGO rehashes old SW sets, like AT-AT and X-Wing, since that's the only way an AFOL coming from the dark ages now can have them without paying a premium, and in most cases the Minifigures and the build itself is improved over the previous version. I'd love to have Jabba's Palace and Jabba's Sail Barge, and the Jawa's Sandcrawler, and I hope they rehash those as well. Also, they are always coming up with new ideas, even into such a rehashed theme, like Battle of Endor, which, I believe, is an "original" idea within the theme, and I set I really like.
  • coolpixcoolpix Member Posts: 357
    @Ilanowarsoldier Did they mentioned anything about the prices? are these going to be 50% off? Also any mention to any of the City sets? Thanks for the info!
  • dimefielddimefield Edmonton Alberta CanadaMember Posts: 314
    I think ive read this whole thread and havent seen a mention of Kingdoms which seems to be done for. All sets are sold out on [email protected]
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,230
    Interesting, no mention of the FB, even though I heard from a LEGO store employee that the fire Brigade is on its way out...
    Maybe it will be gone in early Winter instead....
  • bri4jennbri4jenn United StatesMember Posts: 96
    The Imperial Flagship is now available at Lego Shop at Home.

    http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Imperial-Flagship-10210?p=10210&LangId=2057&ShipTo=US
  • avoiceoreasonavoiceoreason Member Posts: 224
    S I'd love to have Jabba's Palace ... I hope they rehash those
    I guess you haven't Googled "2012 Summer Star Wars Sets" then. hehehe ;)
  • coolpixcoolpix Member Posts: 357
    edited December 2011
    @dimefield You are right. It's shocking, but they don't have that theme listed on [email protected] anymore. I wonder if all left over Kingdoms stuff will be on sale then. Some of these sets are out for a few months alone, plus they have Joust coming in... TLG sometimes is really unpredictable. We are speculating here on almost everything, and yet, we don't know what's going to happen after Xmas.

    It's sad for me, as Kingdoms was one of my favorite themes, but I guess it has to pave the way for LOTR...

    Apart from Star Wars, Indiana Jones and Super Heroes, I still prefer the generic LEGO themes (Kingdoms, Castle, Pirates!, Alien Conquest), too bad that these have to go.

    Another note: It's amazing that a "Castle" set like MMV outlived the entire Kingdoms collection. It's probably the first time something like this happens.
  • MCNwakeboardMCNwakeboard VirginiaMember Posts: 315
    If only the EN came in different colors The EN in black would be absolutely fabulous!
    It isn't to hard to change the EN livery to black or red. I used brick link to determine what colors I needed and then only needed to order from 3 stores
  • coolpixcoolpix Member Posts: 357
    @avoiceofreason I did... and I am extremely happy on what I've found... :-)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,230
    The Imperial Flagship is now available at Lego Shop at Home.

    http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Imperial-Flagship-10210?p=10210&LangId=2057&ShipTo=US
    Wow...
    Good thing I have been getting these on sale and not retail.... Wonder if these will be on the Sale list.


  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    edited December 2011
    I don't disagree about SW's relevance to TLG, but I do think there will be burnout at some point and sales will slow. The re-release of the films has been done a couple times now so that Lucas Films can add their CGI effects.
    I actually overhead a parent in my local Lego store ask the manager "is this all the Star Wars you have? Isn't there more?"

    My son is 6, he wants a "real R2-D2" for Christmas, don't underestimate the staying power of Star Wars, because every year another group of kids joins the group keeping it fresh. In a few years, my youngest son will be ready for Star Wars, just something about it is magic...

    Must be the Force... :)
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    It isn't to hard to change the EN livery to black or red. I used brick link to determine what colors I needed and then only needed to order from 3 stores
    I just may have to pull the trigger and get some parts. The EN using black with red trim would be a sight to behold... Thanks for the heads up.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    @LegoFanTexas - Yeah...I completely agree regarding the next generation. If my kids are any indication, the series still has legs. But as someone who works with products from another company, the logistics of managing so many themes and subsets of themes is incredible. I guess from my little perspective, it seems like most of it has already been done (based on the movies and CW series). All they seem to be doing are small tweaks to what they've already done. JMO.

    So are you going to build a real life-sized R2-D2 out of legos for your son's Christmas present? Post pictures if you do...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    @Farmer_John - My son still has not seen any of the Clone Wars cartoon, he has only played Lego Star Wars on the PS3 and watched the 6 movies (we did have to hide parts of it from him, the final battles in EP3 with the lava were too scary for him, as was the trash compactor, and a few other bits, but otherwise he was fine).

    I did manage to find this MISB for him:

    9748 - Droid Developer Kit
    http://www.brickset.com/detail/?Set=9748-1

    I figure that he'll get this for Christmas and we can build a "real" R2-D2 that has power and moves together... :)

    I'm actually shocked how cheap this set is, considering the age of it and how popular R2-D2 is...
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    Dropship with AT-OT is down to 18 in stock at Amazon...probably the last chance to buy it online at or near MSRP.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Yes, but even at $237.99 it feels overpriced...
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I did manage to find this MISB for him:

    9748 - Droid Developer Kit
    http://www.brickset.com/detail/?Set=9748-1

    I figure that he'll get this for Christmas and we can build a "real" R2-D2 that has power and moves together... :)

    I'm actually shocked how cheap this set is, considering the age of it and how popular R2-D2 is...
    I didn't even know that set was out there! I installed hardwood floors a couple years ago, and this would be perfect.

    As a side note, I also got the SW movies on blu ray for the kids from Santa. I also installed a surround sound system (ate a lot of insulation in the attic in the process), and the sound on blu ray is outstanding. They haven't seen the newer movies, so this will be their opportunity. I guess I can expect more requests for SW lego sets once they see them.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Dropship with AT-OT is down to 18 in stock at Amazon...probably the last chance to buy it online at or near MSRP.
    I almost bought one during the Black Friday sale, but couldn't pull the trigger. I opted for an additional EN and IF instead. I probably missed out on a good set, but just can't afford everything. The EN and IF sets are instant Lego classics and I am not having any second thoughts.
  • avoiceoreasonavoiceoreason Member Posts: 224
    FWIW, I was in my local Lego store today and they had re-stocked MMV and DS with a shipment received on Monday. They were still out of all HP though. Not sure if it means anything but thought I would pass it along.
  • llanowarsoldierllanowarsoldier Ohio USAMember Posts: 357
    @Ilanowarsoldier Did they mentioned anything about the prices? are these going to be 50% off? Also any mention to any of the City sets? Thanks for the info!
    I didn't ask about prices, But if one goes by previous experience then SW will be around the 30% off mark along with any licensed products. As for the other stuff Atlantis, Kingdoms, AC, PQ, Winter Sets, Architecture will be 50% off. As for City stuff the Small Car, Public Transport, Off-Road Fire Rescue, Train Station, Level Crossing, Police Helicopter, City Corner, Repair Truck, Seaplane, and the 1st 2 trains are expected on the chopping block as well. Then of course there are some Creator sets going away as well. Of course most stores will more than likely be out of all of these products come Saturday.

    Also, if your Lego Store doesn't have any HP items left, then you're SOL.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited December 2011
    ...and the 1st 2 trains are expected on the chopping block as well.
    Which trains are you referring to?

    Also, I agree that HP is EOL'd. Get'em while you can...

    I think PotC should also be added to the list (with the exception of the BP).
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I just went to [email protected] and they have removed Kingdoms from the USA site. Furthermore, only the MMV is left for that theme. Perhaps the MMV set will be on the 50% after Christmas sale. If so, I will pick up a couple for sure (if I get to it in time).

    I will be shocked if the Mill Village Raid is gone for good (which it could very well be). It is the perfect complementary set to the MMV, and was out less than a year. Really glad I was able to pick up a couple of those at sale prices prior to it going away completely.
  • OdinduskOdindusk Member Posts: 763
    MMV is "Castle" theme, not Kingdoms. But I don't think that affects your comments either way, so nevermind. lol
  • coolpixcoolpix Member Posts: 357
    @Farmer_John If you search for "Kingdoms" the sets show up, however, everything is out of stock, a true indication that this is the end of line for the series :-(
  • OdinduskOdindusk Member Posts: 763
    edited December 2011
    I think I'm definitely going to snag a 2nd Mill Village Raid. That set was too short-lived. Great "peasants' spotlight" set.
  • llanowarsoldierllanowarsoldier Ohio USAMember Posts: 357
    ...and the 1st 2 trains are expected on the chopping block as well.
    Which trains are you referring to?

    Also, I agree that HP is EOL'd. Get'em while you can...

    I think PotC should also be added to the list (with the exception of the BP).
    I listed PotC(with exception to BP) to an earlier post. As for the Trains I meant the City ones Passenger and Cargo, guess I should have specified. I would also guess that any Exclusive sets that came out this year like Bank&Money Transfer, Hillside House, Mace Windu's Starfighter, etc will be gone also.

    I think MMV is staying around for awhile longer as it is an excellent seller, BUT with the Joust coming out it may be gone. This is one set we won't know for certain until the 26th.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Wow...Mace Windu's Starfighter potentially gone? I may have to grab one of those.

    As for the trains, EOLing the Passenger and Cargo would leave only two trains in TLG's product lines. You may be right, but trains are popular and I would be surprised if TLG only had two trains to sell.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,230
    ^--- I do not think the Red Passenger train will be gone as they do not have a replacement for it. I believe they have always had a Passenger train old before the old one goes away, same with the Cargo train.
    I do think the Yellow one will be gone because they now have the red cargo train.
    As for the train accessory pieces, like station and crossing those are feasible as they have been out for a while so it is possible.
    Also the creator trains do not really count IMO toward the City 2 train rule...
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    Received some good info today from a LEGO employee. Okay, here goes:

    Harry Potter line is ending, but Diagon Alley will likely remain as an 'exclusive' product.
    Pirates of the Caribbean will likely be gone before Lord of the Rings hits shelves.
    Mill Village Raid will likely remain on awhile longer. Not 100% on this though
    Fire Brigade will be the next modular to retire, but not just yet.

    I feel like there was more info, but can't think of it now.

    I was surprised at how many sets were sold out at the store I went to. Even the AT-OTs were gone, of which I know they had an ample supply not too long ago. No sign of Imperial Flagships or Emerald Nights.

    I'm wondering how much stock they will have for the Dec 26th sale. A lot of the sets I was assuming would be part of it - Hoth Battle Packs - were totally gone.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Was just in my Lego store tonight, picked up a few small things...

    They were sold out of lots of stuff, the shelves were the barest I've ever seen them.

    HP was almost empty, the City wall was well stocked, Star Wars looked rather empty, they did have plenty of DS and MMV of course. BP was sold out (but they said they would get more). Super Heroes was all sold out, they did get them in, sold them out in an hour, said they were getting more SH tomorrow.

    They have given up guessing on FB, they won't get more EN and IF, they are sure of that, that is all I got...
  • coolpixcoolpix Member Posts: 357
    @brickupdate @LegoFanTexas good stuff guys! I am heading to my local store tomorrow and will report what's going on there too. These reports will let us measure up how the 26th will be. I am somewhat glad with the reports, as I am mostly aiming at City, Kingdoms and Winter Sets, if none of the Modulars are on sale. Harry Potter I don't care much, I already have a Hogwarts Express, and that's enough for me.
  • llanowarsoldierllanowarsoldier Ohio USAMember Posts: 357
    I have the feeling this years Dec 26th sale is going to be slim pickings as everything seems to be moving.
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    Agreed. I think it will be good for parts though - getting a bunch of a less popular set at 50% off and breaking it up for MOCs. Hey! I mentioned MOCs in a thread, do I get a point for that? :)
  • brickmaticbrickmatic Member Posts: 1,071
    Of course Kingdoms is EOL! That makes perfect sense with the announcement of LOTR. When PotC came out, the Pirates line went EOL despite being immensely popular and only out for a year. The only thing that remained was the IF, which was a large exclusive, much like Joust will be. This makes sense.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I have the feeling this years Dec 26th sale is going to be slim pickings as everything seems to be moving.
    I tend to concur...this year has the potential to be very weak. I still think that MMV will be listed in the sale...and that it will go very fast. There will also be a few SW sets including Obi-Wan's ship, Cad Bane's ship, and the bounty hunter ship. Also other misc odds and ends.

    A weak sale will indicate that TLG planned their product production very well.
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    If we don't live close to a LEGO store, will the stores ship to your home if you call them? I am looking to pick up a few of copies of each of the winter village sets, if they are indeed on sale. In the alternative, would anyone heading to a store on the 26th be willing to pick a few up for me? I'd be willing to make it worth your while!
  • DatoDato Member Posts: 111
    @wagnerml2: The store I visited said they would, but they would charge s&h regadless of any free shipping promotion at [email protected], plus your state tax.
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    @Dato - Thanks! As long as they let me order for the sale price, this would still be ok!
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    @ LegoFanTexas,

    I can't see the Tower Bridge getting discontinued for at least a year. With the Olympics in London next year, and this been such an iconic landmark, it would be crazy to discontinue it.

    I have been reading this thread with interest by the way.

    I think it would be currently quite tricky to pick specific sets that you feel will go up in value. With the benefit of hindsight, anybody who knows anything about Lego would have bought several UCS Falcons, but with so many more re-sellers, more re-issued similar sets, and a fragile economy, it might become harder. I have seen many people talk about MMV as a certainty to appreciate given how popular it is, but it could easily be the opposite, as it has sold strongly for a long time, and apparently will continue in to next year.

    richo
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