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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ If you insure an item the USPS will pay the claim. They have done so for me twice over the years, and without hassle. Just have to keep all your paperwork, etc.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    @gmpirate You're right. Seems to be very low inventory at LEGO on Retiring sets. I wonder if there will be anything worth snagging and on discount after Christmas. Any ideas on what may be available and marked down?
  • avoiceoreasonavoiceoreason Member Posts: 224
    As I reflect on it more, I will definitely offer a full refund to the buyer. It's the right thing to do whether it sucks for me or not.

    I do find it comical though that even though you pay for delivery confirmation and USPS tracking confirms that it was never delivered, the USPS claims no resonsibility whatsoever. They should at least refund my shipping cost for not doing their job!

    And hopefully all of you are right, and it will eventually show up. Just a frustration and hassle for both myself and the buyer
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    gmpirate said:

    Anyway, back on topic, this has got to be the worst year I've seen as far as the inventory goes at all the Lego stores. There's virtually been no EOL'ing sets in stock anywhere.

    TLG has got alot better at inventory management this year, and smarter by using the Retiring Soon label. If you thought the BF sale was bad, just wait for the post Xmas sale lol.
  • avoiceoreasonavoiceoreason Member Posts: 224
    @gmpirate - you're right, and for all I know it will be on her doorstep when she gets home today. To your second point, that is why I never purchase insurance in the first place. Not worth the hassle for these lower value items. As you and @LFT recommend, I'll just suck it up and move on.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ Hey, I've been there. As LFT said, just do what you can to reassure the buyer. Let them know you are doing all that you can do. And, that you'll make it right. When they hear words like that from the seller they take on a different attitude. Also, make sure all of your correspondence is via eBay email so that you have a history of what happened. If they leave you negative feedback, which I doubt they will do, you may get it overturned by having someone at eBay read the emails.
  • thehockeyboythehockeyboy Member Posts: 97
    The "tracking number" from the USPS is really a delivery confirmation... RARELY do they actually scan it at each stop on its way to the final destination and so it can't be relied on. Do just as LFT told you: explain that there may be a delay due to heavy volume (and weather if they were hit by the recent snow storm or if the delivery route goes through that area).

    As for insurance, it is an absolute waste with the USPS. I am glad to hear people like cloaked have had it work for them before, but I have had absolutely 0 success in the past with insurance claims. Sadly, I have to pass on the risk of the USPS losing the item into the cost of the item, so in the end the buyer has to pay a bit more. I describe all my items as being 3rd party insured, with myself taking the full responsibility if the item is damaged/lost.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ As with any company, it may have been the person that I dealt with at the USPS. Both times it was the same person that waited on me. She told me what I needed to do in order to have the claim processed correctly, so I did that and had her wait on me when I returned with the supporting information. Then, she processed the paperwork and paid me in cash for the cost of the item.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    avoiceoreason said:

    I know these things happen, but I am also not Amazon. @LFT - this is what I am struggling with. Assuming it never shows up one of us is screwed. As a large reseller or Amazon, "it happens" and is a cost of doing business. For smaller resellers its tougher to stomach.

    Amen... I fully understand, it just flat sucks.

    That being said, put yourself in the buyer's shoes, pretend you are the buyer here, what would you expect to have happen?

    Is the buyer just supposed to shrug their shoulders and say "oh well"?
    avoiceoreason said:

    Using the same thought process, if I am willing to accept that it happens and refund the buyer, shouldn't the vastly larger USPS also understand that "it happens" and reimburse me even though I didn't buy insurance. It's <$100 and I obviously have transactional proof of the value. Does the USPS even pay for claims on undelivered packages?</p>

    No, I am afraid not. USPS assumes no liabilty for packages sent without insurance. The vast, vast majority of packages arrive just fine, but if you deal in billions of items shipped, sooner or later, something will get stepped on, crushed, lost, misdirected, etc.

    Turn it back to the buyer for a minute. Does it matter to the buyer if you are small time? Say they were buying from me instead. Do they now expect a refund from me since I'm not small time?

    Truthfully, the buyer doesn't care, they paid their money and want their item.

    Is it fair to you? No. If the USPS does not deliver the item, clearly they screwed up and are at fault. But their being at fault does not remove your responsbility to deliver the package.

    This is why PayPal will ultimatly side with the buyer if the buyer decides to make an issue out of it.

    But I do feel for you, it downright sucks when you're small time and can't just absorb it across 100 other sales.
  • avoiceoreasonavoiceoreason Member Posts: 224
    ^ Agreed, as I noted a few posts up.

    I still find it ironic that as a service provider (i.e. delivering goods to a buyer) I am willing to do right by the customer in the rare circumstance that something doesn't go right, but the Postal Service, as a service provider, basically says tough luck to their customers when they lose a package.

    In my situation, I'm not at fault, but I am responsible. From the post office point of view, they are at fault, but not responsible. Gotta love it!

    It still makes me shake my head when I consider that the postal service policy is basically saying, "pay me for providing the service of delivering your package, but if you want to gurantee that I actually provide that service you paid for, you need to pay me even more." Then again, that's why insurance is such a good business. :)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    @avoiceoreason

    I couldn't agree with you more! :)
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    avoiceoreason said:

    So I sold a set on eBay. Shipped Priority Mail. Was supposed to be delivered two days ago, but still shows as sitting in a USPS sorting facility.

    Naturally the buyer wants to know where it is. This has never happened to me before, but I fear it is lost in the vast wasteland of the USPS.

    My question is, what now? On the one hand, I did my part by packing and shipping it within 12 hours of pruchase and I don't want to be on the hook for the postal services ineptness. On the other hand, the buyer clearly doesn't want to be out their money either. I didn't insure it, and the set sold for <$50. Anyone with similar experience(s) have any suggestions on what I should do, or what the appropriate solution is?

    (as an aside, while I always insure expensive sets, I never do anything <$100 as I find it almost offensive that the USPS is basically saying "we may lose or otherwise maul your package, but unless you pay us, tough luck.")</p>

    Sorry if this has already been said, but sit tight and don't panic. USPS's tracking system is horrible. It may show as being in the sorting facility when, in fact, it is on a truck out for delivery. I would just tell the buyer that it was shipped within 12 hours of the purchase and in accordance with your stated shipping method.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    avoiceoreason said:

    ^ Agreed, as I noted a few posts up.

    I still find it ironic that as a service provider (i.e. delivering goods to a buyer) I am willing to do right by the customer in the rare circumstance that something doesn't go right, but the Postal Service, as a service provider, basically says tough luck to their customers when they lose a package.

    In my situation, I'm not at fault, but I am responsible. From the post office point of view, they are at fault, but not responsible. Gotta love it!

    It still makes me shake my head when I consider that the postal service policy is basically saying, "pay me for providing the service of delivering your package, but if you want to gurantee that I actually provide that service you paid for, you need to pay me even more." Then again, that's why insurance is such a good business. :)

    You just have to remember USPS is a government agency -- monopoly for the most part. Its not like they have to worry about going out of business like any private entity would.
  • dr_tengdr_teng Member Posts: 101
    USPS isn't anything resembling a monopoly. But yes, you should get insurance on any packages (either USPS, UPS, or Fedex) that you send. Unfortunately, it's a cost of doing business. I've definitely had some late deliveries on USPS and UPS packages so far this holiday season so the above advice of having the seller sit tight for a little longer is good. Though people get super antsy around Christmas.
  • avoiceoreasonavoiceoreason Member Posts: 224
    The buyer so far has been fine. Disappointed as to be expected of course. I asked her to wait and see if it was delivered before Christmas, and if not, we would go from there.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    dr_teng said:

    USPS isn't anything resembling a monopoly.

    USPS does have a monopoly on letters, 1st class mail.

    UPS and Fedex are not allowed to compete in the under 1lb market.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,836
    For what its worth, LEGO #10214 TB is showing as 'Sold out' on LEGO S@H
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    madforLEGO said:

    For what its worth, LEGO #10214 TB is showing as 'Sold out' on LEGO S@H

    Jeepers...

    Of course, it could just be low on stock, but if it goes out and surprises us all, it will go up quickly I think.

    Hmm, off to buy some more! :)

    Of course, Amazon appears to have plenty, lets see how long that stock lasts. :)
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 889
    ^ not surprised if it stays that way. Fits the 2 year plan to a T.
  • BastaBasta Member Posts: 1,259
    Not saying that the postal service would any way, but the hard thing about them insuring all packages is they are middle men with no idea what you are shipping so even if they limited claims to $100 or something they would potentially be paying people $100 for an item worth a few dollars. Plus it might be more open to scamming, people sending a bunch of small packages with vanishing ink or addresses in messy hand writing trying to get it lost. Though really I don't know if this would be a huge problem compared to what they have now with having to pay for insurance.

    Back on topic,

    Have any of the "Retireing Soon" listed items been removed from S@H yet?

  • FatMattFatMatt Member Posts: 502
    ^Negative (US)
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Interesting to watch all the "sold out" and "call for availability" postings but they really don't mean anything -- especially this time of year.

    Tower Bridge kind of scares me. I think it will do well but I really don't want to risk a big stock of them sitting around another year or so. And I say this as I'm looking at my Death Stars :P My plan is just to slowly pick up a few whenever the big discounts come around. If the sales do not happen, and we can confirm its going, there should be enough stock around to pick up a reasonable quantity.

    I'm "trying" to learn not to get too antsy with so many sets as I wind up tying up too many funds -- I.e. FB, DS, GE, etc. Its simply not reasonable to get the timing right with every set.
  • VaderXVaderX Member Posts: 220
    CCC said:

    VaderX said:

    MMV is a very great set for parts, the cows alone are generally worth $15-20.

    $4-6 on bricklink, depending on whether you buy the horns from the same seller.
    yup so 6 x 2 plus horns 15-20$
  • avoiceoreasonavoiceoreason Member Posts: 224
    Basta said:

    Not saying that the postal service would any way, but the hard thing about them insuring all packages is they are middle men with no idea what you are shipping so even if they limited claims to $100 or something they would potentially be paying people $100 for an item worth a few dollars. Plus it might be more open to scamming, people sending a bunch of small packages with vanishing ink or addresses in messy hand writing trying to get it lost. Though really I don't know if this would be a huge problem compared to what they have now with having to pay for insurance.

    I agree with the potential for fraud. But in the case of eBay, you have a verified value as the amount is clearly stated via the transaction. For FedEx/UPS, you have to be able to verify the value. You would think that would apply for USPS as well. Sadly no.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    avoiceoreason said:

    As I reflect on it more, I will definitely offer a full refund to the buyer. It's the right thing to do whether it sucks for me or not.

    I do find it comical though that even though you pay for delivery confirmation and USPS tracking confirms that it was never delivered, the USPS claims no resonsibility whatsoever. They should at least refund my shipping cost for not doing their job!

    And hopefully all of you are right, and it will eventually show up. Just a frustration and hassle for both myself and the buyer

    I have never had an issue requesting a refund on my shipping with USPS when they spectacularly miss a delivery date. If it's only by a day or two, it's a tougher sell, but I had one instance where they missed the date by a week and I was able to recover the entire cost of shipping without having had insurance on the package.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    avoiceoreason said:

    For FedEx/UPS, you have to be able to verify the value. You would think that would apply for USPS as well. Sadly no.

    You would think so, but honestly, no... not in my experience.

    I had FedEx pay me $1,500 the other day for a lost set that the customer never received. It was insured for $1,500, so they paid me $1,500.

    It had signature required and they didn't get a signature, the customer said they didn't receive it (I'll bet they did, but that is another issue).

    I filed a claim with FedEx, FedEx paid me 2 weeks later. FedEx never asked what it was, I doubt they care.
  • avoiceoreasonavoiceoreason Member Posts: 224
    gmpirate said:

    I'm "trying" to learn not to get too antsy with so many sets as I wind up tying up too many funds -- I.e. FB, DS, GE, etc. Its simply not reasonable to get the timing right with every set.

    Exactly. This is yet another reason why this isn't as easy as some people think. I think the concern that there are going to be an excess of resellers that will impair the market is somewhat overstated because of this exact issue.

    Plenty of people will start doing it, but after they end up with money tied up in DS or FB for a year (or two...or three) they will often make the decision that it's just not worth it and get out.

    When I started this with the GG, it was a very simple plan to acquire sell, rollover profits, rinse-and-repeat. The 2-yr retirement cycle made this quite easy and low-risk. The FB (and MMV, and DS, and...) quickly eliminated the low-risk aspect to it.

    There aren't too many people that have the funds to tie up in high dollar sets and have the risk that they will sit for 12 months or more before being able to sell them. And if everyone tries to wait until the confirmation of retirement, then there really is only so much stock that will be available for after market sales which should keep prices relatively elevated.
  • RichBRichB Member Posts: 52
    I have noticed 3 Barnes & Nobles now that still have a nice stock of Kingdoms set 7188. What is everyone's opinion on the future of this set?
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    My Barnes and Noble has a ton of Kingdoms left.
  • RichBRichB Member Posts: 52
    I'm wondering if I should pull the trigger on a couple before they're completely gone.
  • YodaliciousYodalicious Member Posts: 1,366
    ^ Might not be a bad idea. The B&Ns near me have some Kingdoms stuff left, but no other retailer has for a long, long time.
  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439
    RichB said:

    I have noticed 3 Barnes & Nobles now that still have a nice stock of Kingdoms set 7188. What is everyone's opinion on the future of this set?

    Bleak in my opinion. This set just wasn't popular or was overproduced. It is the only Kingdoms set (except for Joust and the chess one ofc) that can still be found in webshops over here, too.

    Btw Fantasy Era's carriage behaved the same. I could still find a few in webshops this year while all the other regular FE sets were long gone. It seems royal carriages are just not that popular in my country at least.

  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    The problem with 7188 is that the carriage is way too big in scale to the King's Castle. It's also over priced at RRP. It does include dark green tree elements and the minifigs are good. I would only buy it if it were 30-50% off.
  • VaderXVaderX Member Posts: 220
    ^ The figs are good and lots of tree elements in 7188, but old horses and not a very interesting build. This seems like it was about the only kingdoms set that was heavily discounted before they disappeared in my area.
  • emilewskiemilewski Member Posts: 482
    To digress back a little to the Postal insurance question, has anyone had any experience with insurepost.com? I started using them for my shipping as they are cheaper than USPS insurance, and offer insurance for parcel post and international USPS first class shipments, which USPS does not. I have not had to file a claim so I cannot judge if they will actually pay out...
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,836
    mathew said:

    The problem with 7188 is that the carriage is way too big in scale to the King's Castle. It's also over priced at RRP. It does include dark green tree elements and the minifigs are good. I would only buy it if it were 30-50% off.

    I think this was one of the sets on 50% clearance at Walmart last year (was lucky enough to find a couple)
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    I'm really pissed I missed the Kingdoms lineup.. Still in my dark ages. Really want the castle but don't feel like paying above RRP.


    I wish they'd make a UCS castle of some sort.. I want a massive castle.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ Lego always has a castle theme. Another is on the way . . .
  • LeoNLegosLeoNLegos Member Posts: 6
    I was waiting for a sale on these and didn't notice it went EOL.

    Do you think any retailers will get more? I notice TRU has sets that are very hard to find and they still carry it. Do you think it will pop up at TRU?.
  • iBartiBart Member Posts: 121
    Same with 10212 IS (at least in Europe).
    CS says that they don't know if there will be more... :/
  • BastaBasta Member Posts: 1,259
    In the Predictions and retiring sets thread I think for the most part we came to the conclusion that the "Retiring soon" title is not necessarily a complete list, It's more a way of letting people know that certain sets are on the way out. Sets that TLG probably want to sell a little quicker with out the need to do large clearance discounts.
    madforLEGO
  • rasmustalirasmustali Member Posts: 85
    I have a chance to buy 5 #4840 for 77EUR each I guess it is no brainer to buy them?
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Uh, yes.
  • Brick_ObsessionBrick_Obsession Member Posts: 656
    I did see it on the Canadian S&H site under the "retiring soon" page.

    I am 100% sure of this. It caused me to purchase it.
  • hoyatableshoyatables Member Posts: 873
    ^^^^Try Helm's Deep -- gives you a real castle feel.
  • Bosstone100Bosstone100 Member Posts: 1,431
    In October or November I was at the local Lego store and the manager said they were not getting anymore. They had one left so I bought it. I was in there a couple of days ago and there is no longer a spot for it. Take that for what it's worth.
  • Nadana86Nadana86 Member Posts: 65
    edited December 2012
    Can we maybe make a list of what EOLed this winter and what is pretty sure/maybe on its way out? I am getting confused ;-)

    EOL for sure:
    Maersk Train
    Dino Theme
    MMV
    MF - Zombies
    DA
    IS
    BP
    QAR
    Republic Frigate

    Look out for:
    TB
    SSD?

    What other sets of the big ones have I forgotten / not known about?
  • RichBRichB Member Posts: 52
    10216: winter village bakery should be done and not returning next winter, but that could always change.
  • RichBRichB Member Posts: 52
    Also 5770, lighthouse island looks to be done as well.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^^^ Cool, another list! What about the DS?
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