Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

doriansdad

I purchased a MISB 10189 Taj for $800 6 months ago. It goes for $1400 at an auction style listing today. 10196 and 10182 also continue to climb steadily. I just do not see the falling prices that others are apparently seeing. Decrease in demand for the modular line is due to TLG's decision to keep the models around for a very long time which destroyed their appeal to many adult collectors (me included) - I would not use them for a yardstick on the demand for the classic sets that every serious collector should have.

pharmjod

doriansdad said:

the classic sets that every serious collector should have.

sorry. Had to giggle a little at that statement. Just seems extreme to speak of Lego in terms of "classic sets" that "every collector" must or should have. Just my opinion though.

CCC

doriansdad said:

Decrease in demand for the modular line is due to TLG's decision to keep the models around for a very long time which destroyed their appeal to many adult collectors (me included)

Why does the length of time they are around decrease their appeal to a collector?

Crazyaddict

Why does the length of time they are around decrease their appeal to a collector?

The marginal collectors deplete with time either through acquisition (he bought the set while it was rising in price and the next buyer in line won't pay as much for it) or through substitution (he decides to moc his own or wait for TLC to reissue or make a newer better version - we see this a lot with SW sets).

at the end of the day, the pool of willing collectors grows smaller and smaller and thus reduces the selling price of a discontinued set.

best time frame is around 1 to 2 years post EOL. after that you see a marked decrease in price. very few would actually achieve the batman 1 sets' prices.

madforLEGO

Crazyaddict said:

best time frame is around 1 to 2 years post EOL. after that you see a marked decrease in price. very few would actually achieve the batman 1 sets' prices.

It also needs to be said there are exceptions to that Rule and not just Batman sets.. I believe that selling after only 1-2 EOL is not holding them long enough, especially now with the reseller activity being what it is.
UNLESS it is SW then the jury is out as they could readily re-release a newer version of the set that EOL and cause a collapse on the secondary market of the original set.

But there are many sets either holding their value or going up still after 1-2 EOL.

doriansdad

CCC said:

Why does the length of time they are around decrease their appeal to a collector?

Collectors enjoy rarity. If TLG floods the market with a set for many years it loses its rarity and its collectibility. Companies that have long established collectible lines of products do a limited run then destroy the molds. That is a winning formula. We have not seen a retirement in the modular line for over 2 years. I don't ever see kids asking for modulars so they are obviously aimed at adult collectors. One year ago if amazon listed FB at $119 it would have been sold out in a day, now they have it languishing for weeks on end at this price. Having one modular retire and one new entry each year would have kept things fresh and exciting....now not so much....not suprising aftermarket prices which reflect demand are dipping for the entire line.

lulwut

No, you won't see same aftermarket prices as the older sets did. And it's not because of some crazed collector who refuses to buy the new ones because they are sitting in production for too long. These type of consumers only make up a small percentage of the market and is exactly why the old discontinued sets are selling for so high. They are the perfect pair, the limited few who pay absurd prices with the limited amount of sets available.

The real take away from this is that Lego has adjusted their tactics due to their overwhelming success in the last few years. More sets are going to people's hands as sets sit longer in production. You won't see the steep discounts that the Taj and UCS Falcon saw because everything in this category now gets gobbled up at a mere 20% off or more. Consumers are happy not having to overpay and more cash in Lego's pockets, but a blow to the aftermarket.

RichB

I agree sets like the FB, GE, etc won't see price increases as high as the earlier modulars. However I do believe they will appreciate very slowly over time, and that they will be good long term investments. And when i say long term i mean really long, because we all know there are a ton of people out there hoarding FB's, including myself.

prevere

mathew said:

doriansdad said:

mathew said:

You guys might have to consider that the overall demand for big, expensive EOL sets is dwindling.

Do you have any proof to back up this claim?

No. Just a hunch. Every collectable has a shelf life though. I'm thinking that it's possible that the number of people collecting large Lego models could decrease over time. If prices keep dropping then I think it's a distinct possibility.

Once they get to 10 modulars, I can see interest stabilizing or having a slow decline. Simply in that collectors like to complete series, and at that point, it'll cost you north of $4,000 to get all 10. Plus few people have room to showcase that many.

Question - Are modulars going to be around (released at 1 per year) for the next decade?

RichB

^this is assuming if they ever get retired. These modulars are the next DS, the set that never vanishes.....

doriansdad

I will have to respectfully disagree. There will be sets that are currently in production that will pass $1k within a few years (you just have to figure out which ones they are).

prevere

Ok so it'll cost $9k-ish to get the first 10. Who the heck has that money?

Even with Lego extending the lives of these, they delay the inevitable increase in value.

dragonhawk

RichB said:

I agree sets like the FB, GE, etc won't see price increases as high as the earlier modulars. However I do believe they will appreciate very slowly over time, and that they will be good long term investments. And when i say long term i mean really long, because we all know there are a ton of people out there hoarding FB's, including myself.

From business point of view, is it still wise to hoard FBs ? With the amount of resellers (seemingly) with FBs in their inventory, the ROI for FB is very low COMPARED to other modulars when you take time into consideration.
This does not take into consideration the number of people already buying the set for personal use throughout the years, which will decrease demands. High supply and lower demand (comparatively) equals disaster, no ?

prevere

^Still a yes IMHO.

Supply/Demand. Supply goes down. Demand stays constant. Prices goes up.

# of resellers are not going to outnumber the buyers. If that would happen, then you have a crash scenario on your hands.

111ins

Just curious as to what you think of the potential of a UCS falcon that I may get tomorrow for $1900? Still in the packing box and ordered in 2007, so may be the first "limited "run.....

FatMatt

^Prices on those have dipped from the summer I believe. I recall them going around $2,700 and maybe a little higher. Right now there seems to be a few that have sold recently for $2,500, but most closer to $2,000 (These are ebay prices). Whether the price will spike back up on them or whether it has hit a peak remains unknown and unprecedented.

LegoFanTexas

I see UCS falcon moving between $2k and $3k for another year. It will ebb and flow with supply and demand.

Getting over $3k and staying there will be tough, there is a very limited market for any LEGO set over $3k.

In my opinion. :)

prevere

I think $3k is doable as long as there is a custom Lego cave for the Falcon to fit into.

doriansdad

I have a bad feeling TLG will start doing UCS rehashes and this will obviously hurt resale values of current sets.

prevere

Nah, there are a lot of UCS sets they haven't done yet. But... the Star Destroyer has kinda been done twice; and the TIE Interceptor/Fighter is kinda the same thing.

I'm sure there are lists on Brickset of what's not bee done yet. I do think the B-Wing is a bit of a dud at the price it's at. Hopefully the next one is a killer, say the Republic Gunship?

For reference:
http://www.bricklink.com/catalogList.asp?catType=S&catString=65.259

gmpirate

^ Price aside, I think the B-Wing looks pretty cool. The Republic Gunship and AT-AT would both be great UCS sets.

RichB

doriansdad said:

I will have to respectfully disagree. There will be sets that are currently in production that will pass $1k within a few years (you just have to figure out which ones they are).

I sure hope so :)

FatMatt

UCS Slave I with exclusive Jango would be great.

prevere

Forgot about the AT-AT. Boy, that would be #1 on my list.

cloaked7

^ Yup, I agree. The unique shape and color of the set are great. And, with one of the most popular characters in SW.

prevere

Slave I - another great one. How in the heck do we get a Jedi Starfighter and B-Wing before Slave I and AT-AT, let alone the random Darth Maul bust?

LegoFanTexas

prevere said:

Slave I - another great one. How in the heck do we get a Jedi Starfighter and B-Wing before Slave I and AT-AT, let alone the random Darth Maul bust?

Exactly... :)

effalcon

I imagine they'd re-do the X-Wing before they re-do the MF anyway.

so if a UCS X-Wing hits the radar, shift those MF's :P

The only way i see a UCS MF coming back, would be to say goodbye to the licence in 10 years

madforLEGO

Actually Slave 1 with Jengo Fett's paint scheme would be better.. considering no Jengo Fett set for quite some time now.

y2josh

cloaked7 said:

^ Yup, I agree. The unique shape and color of the set are great. And, with one of the most popular characters in SW.

Jango is? I thought the general consensus was that he was one of the most absurd characters in the SW universe, with no real purpose other than to ruin the mythos of Boba.

y2josh

madforLEGO said:

Actually Slave 1 with Jengo Fett's paint scheme would be better.. considering no Jengo Fett set for quite some time now.

I guarantee when they do a UCS Slave I... it's going to be Boba's. PT UCS models have traditionally fared very poorly, not to mention Episode II is the second-worst movie ever made.

Bandit

I think we can count on a new Jango Fett Slave 1 next year (assumedly not UCS), tied to the movie re-releases...

dragonhawk

y2josh said:

cloaked7 said:

^ Yup, I agree. The unique shape and color of the set are great. And, with one of the most popular characters in SW.

Jango is? I thought the general consensus was that he was one of the most absurd characters in the SW universe, with no real purpose other than to ruin the mythos of Boba.

Well, for the most part, PT ruins the mythos of OT ;)

y2josh

^^That sounds more feasible, though I believe the sets coming out leading up to the Episode II re-release have all already been listed... plus, if they're trying to tie in to the 3D re-releases, they'd presumably have a ton more RotS sets on the list as well.

Bandit

^ true. Maybe it will be in the winter wave. Or may indeed be the surprise UCS set announced mid year?

doriansdad

effalcon said:

I imagine they'd re-do the X-Wing before they re-do the MF anyway.

so if a UCS X-Wing hits the radar, shift those MF's :P

The only way i see a UCS MF coming back, would be to say goodbye to the licence in 10 years

Yep I have a bad feeling the UCS x-wing will be the next model TLG releases.

Ma1234

Anybody who was worried about the VW Bus being a goner...it's back, not surprisingly, on lego.com. Ships mid-January.

avoiceoreason

So I sold a set on eBay. Shipped Priority Mail. Was supposed to be delivered two days ago, but still shows as sitting in a USPS sorting facility.

Naturally the buyer wants to know where it is. This has never happened to me before, but I fear it is lost in the vast wasteland of the USPS.

My question is, what now? On the one hand, I did my part by packing and shipping it within 12 hours of pruchase and I don't want to be on the hook for the postal services ineptness. On the other hand, the buyer clearly doesn't want to be out their money either. I didn't insure it, and the set sold for <$50. Anyone with similar experience(s) have any suggestions on what I should do, or what the appropriate solution is?

(as an aside, while I always insure expensive sets, I never do anything <$100 as I find it almost offensive that the USPS is basically saying "we may lose or otherwise maul your package, but unless you pay us, tough luck.")

andystar

@avoiceoreason I recently had a similar thing happen where the item I shipped via USPS sat in a sorting facility for 5+ days according to their online tracking information. It ended up making it to the buyer, albeit about 7 days longer then expected. In my case it was due to Hurricane Sandy related delays, but the delay you are seeing may just be from last minute volume for USPS. Hope your package makes it to the buyer.

pumperx

^^possibly due to weather?

turtle1173

^^ USPS is dealing with a huge volume of mail/packages. Also their tracking system isn't that great. It may or may not be sitting in the sorting facility. Really, though, there isn't anything you can do. If you shipped it and the buyer can see that too, they will need to be understanding of the time of year. Hopefully it will get there soon.

pharmjod

If you're worried about negative feedback, you could always offer to refund shipping. Then go from there.

madforLEGO

@voiceofreason: I do not really understand why you would be culpable here.
You sent it out at the appropriate pace. and the PO, not you, is the one holding it. Furthermore it is not lost. It is showing at the PO, and there is a record of it.
That being said I understand that you do not want a negative feedback but at the same time I fail to see you are at fault.

I would say maybe contact the PO and ask about the tracking and see if it fell behind or something.. Also ensure it was sent Priority and not parcel (if you used electronic mailing to make the shipping label) just to ensure you did not accidentally mark it as parcel post.

This is why I try not to sell anything on eBay right before Christmas.. the delivery is a wild card (even though they say it should be there in 'x' amount of days)

LegoFanTexas

madforLEGO said:

@voiceofreason: I do not really understand why you would be culpable here.
You sent it out at the appropriate pace. and the PO, not you, is the one holding it. Furthermore it is not lost. It is showing at the PO, and there is a record of it.
That being said I understand that you do not want a negative feedback but at the same time I fail to see you are at fault.

@voiceofreason is not at fault here, but please be careful to not confuse fault with responsibility, they aren't the same thing.

In this case, a few days are to be expected with Christmas rush, I would contact the buyer and point them to tracking and say it was shipped 12 hours after order and it should arrive soon, but that the post office is backed up.

I personally also point out that if the item never does arrive, the buyer has nothing to worry about because I will take care of it. I find that reassurance is very often helpful to a buyer knowing they can relax.

If the item never does arrive, ultimately you will have to refund the buyer. But you are a ways from that. I ask buyers to wait 5 weeks, often items do turn up. Paypal allows claims up to 6 weeks after payment, so this gives them a one week cushion to feel secure about it.

If the item has not been marked delivered by then, just refund them and move on. It happens.

gmpirate

Honestly, calling USPS will not afford you any answer. As many here will say, sometimes the tracking info just appears stuck for a while and then the package eventually shows up. Apologize/sympathize with the buyer, explain it is still with USPS and sometimes this happens. Give it at least a week.

gmpirate

Anyway, back on topic, this has got to be the worst year I've seen as far as the inventory goes at all the Lego stores. There's virtually been no EOL'ing sets in stock anywhere.

chrisdojo

@avoiceoreason
I have an item sent via USPS Parcel Post a few days ago that only shows "Electronic Information Received" as the delivery confirmation status. I took it to the post office and handed it to a clerk behind the desk with 7 other packages which are all showing the packages moving along to their destinations.

I called USPS customer service to see if they could do anything. They said USPS employees technically only have to scan the delivery confirmation barcode when the item is delivered.

I've never had this happen before, but I imagine there are piles of packages being sent all over.

avoiceoreason

Thanks all. The package was definitely sent Priority Mail. The last detail was that it left the sorting facility on the 18th with delivery expected on the 19th. So who knows where it is now.

I know these things happen, but I am also not Amazon. @LFT - this is what I am struggling with. Assuming it never shows up one of us is screwed. As a large reseller or Amazon, "it happens" and is a cost of doing business. For smaller resellers its tougher to stomach.

Using the same thought process, if I am willing to accept that it happens and refund the buyer, shouldn't the vastly larger USPS also understand that "it happens" and reimburse me even though I didn't buy insurance. It's <$100 and I obviously have transactional proof of the value. Does the USPS even pay for claims on undelivered packages?

I'm likely out something either way. This was obviously purchased for Christmas, so even if it does ultimately show up, I'm sure it will be returned. Since I offer free shipping, I am at least out the shipping costs.

cloaked7

^ I don't have a crystal ball, so I don't know how it will turn out, but my guess is that the item will make it to the seller. As LFT said, it may take 4-5 weeks, but chances are it will be delivered. Also, it may be beat up.

I have mailed over 1,000 items via the USPS over years, and never had one never show up. I have had a few that took weeks to arrive, but they finally made it.

gmpirate

^ "You are only 2 days behind". No insurance/no pay-out. Even if you had purchased insurance, I'd say good luck with getting your money from USPS. It would not even be worth your time to deal with.