Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

CCC

^ #31009 is coming...

madforLEGO

I'm guessing that is not the new standard set, if so then I think we need to worry about the Creator house series :-)

I thought there was another on deck that is more the same size as Apple Tree house

CCC

Yeah, it is more like a shed than a house.

prevere

If the regular Creator houses are done, there could be some profit growth in all the previous ones.

FollowsClosely

20% of my IS boxes are in bad shape. There will be plenty of deboxing with free shipping in the future for that set.

bamaker1

Which set are you talking about? The Vampyre Castle?

sidersdd

^ I think he means the #7965 Falcon.

CCC

prevere said:

If the regular Creator houses are done, there could be some profit growth in all the previous ones.

I don't know if they are done, or just shrinking to continue to meet a specific price point.

richo

^ I must admit, that at £20 from John Lewis, the Lighthouse is one of my buys of the year. Great parts set.

stegmanco

PoTC is not longer a theme on the SHOP page of the Lego site. Was hoping Harry Potter would be leaving too, but it's still there I assume because of #10217 is still available.

zjygkmatt

Yes, the Falcon. I would rather not pay over $100 online.

prevere

^HP will be gone lickedy split once DA is gone. Hard to tell if that will survive past Dec/Jan.

Yodalicious

I'd think it's in the category of "if you know you want it, you better get it." I snagged one at Target for $102 back in July and haven't seen them in stores in my city since then. Well, I did see one at Walmart once for $119, but the box looked like it was drug behind the truck that delivered it to the store.

Poochy

The last time I saw it locally was at a newly opened WM last month. They had 5, and I bought 2 (one for me and one for my buddy). The remaining 3 were gone the next day when I came back to pick up one more for another buddy. I should have just grabbed all 5, sigh.

Pitfall69

@madforLego

I will have to disagree with your point on why the Green Grocer is dropping in price. Yes, the Haunted House share a lot of Sand Green, but other than 40+ 1x4 pieces in each set, neither set share the same Sand Green bricks. GG has 50 1x8, 54 1x3 and 35 1x1. The Haunted House has none of those. The Haunted House has 56 1x6 and 74 1x2 pieces. GG doesn't have these pieces. I don't think people are buying the HH trying to complete a GG.

graphite

^ there are a lot of 1x3-1x3 combinations in GG which are easily substituted with a 1x6. 1x8's are just 1x6+1x2 and the solo 1x3's in GG are 1x2+1x1's and 1x1's are readily available. So while it doesnt reproduce a GG exactly by parts list you can recreate one in looks much easier and cheaper now than you could before.

LegoFanTexas

^ That is a good point, if it cuts off $100 from the cost of bricklinking a GG, it would dampen the demand.

But would it be enough to show up in the price like this?

How many people really do this, vs. buy the set outright?

madforLEGO

^--- every little bit 'helps', but my guess is the major factors still are economy and a glut of these available still.

graphite

^ I would agree with that. Most of the people willing to pay $500 or more probably have them by now so its just a current demand thing driving the price down. I would suspect that most people that would Bricklink the set would go for the inventory list on BL and download the instructions and attempt to order as is. To build my Red Grocer I recreated GG in LDD so I could swap colors so I can easily see where to swap parts for other sized parts and create a new list but not many people are probably willing to put in the effort to do parts replacement to get it done.

madforLEGO

By the way #10214 Tower Bridge is listed at S@H US as 'Call for product availability', again for whats that worth, BUT the IS is now listed as the same status. and #10231 is 'sold out' on US S@H site

charl

24 sets are going to retire soon

http://search2.lego.com/?q=retiring&lang=2057&cc=US#cc=US;count=40;i=1;lang=2057;pt=shop;q=retiring

Basta

@charl but we don't really know if this list Complete. For instance #9674 is 1 of 3 in the series and I would doubt that they would only retire 1, it would be all or none IMO. I think its safe to say that these sets listed are going, but we don't know if there will be more.

Pitfall69

^Yes, I agree if you wanted to make a building that looks like GG, that's fine, but I don't think if people are Bricklinking a GG, they aren't going to substitute parts. There's the initial cost of buying the HH for $180. Are there $180 worth of Sand Green in the Green Grocer? You can sell off parts of the HH to recover costs, but that seems like too much of a chore to me.

Yodalicious

^ Agreed, and HH is a great set as it is so I would imagine a lot buying it actually want it.

prevere

Safe to say the "retiring soon" link is a permanent fixture on the site? And that it won't disappear sometime in Jan?

I figure TB still will be available in 2013 as will VW Camper. At least that's what I'm hoping for.

cloaked7

I see the IS is 'call for availability' and the low price that Amazon had on it is gone. Looks like the set will be gone soon.

mathew

madforLEGO said:

By the way #10214 Tower Bridge is listed at S@H US as 'Call for product availability', again for whats that worth, BUT the IS is now listed as the same status. and #10231 is 'sold out' on US S@H site

I think 10231 will be a sleeper hit. I doubt a lot of resellers have hoarded these. All of the existing ships are now being put on display at various museums across the country. The only place you'll be able to purchase a Lego version will be through a reseller.

cloaked7

^ I agree. Anyone remember the Imperial Flagship? Too bad S&H is sold out of them, I was hoping to pick up more at a discount during the after Christmas sale.

cloaked7

Looks like LEGO did a smart thing coming up with the Retiring Soon designation. Most of the nicer sets are already sold out, probably due to the Retiring Soon label. Good for LEGO, too bad for those wanting sets at a discount after Christmas.

cloaked7

Sorry for the 3rd straight post. he he

It is always amazing to see a popular set be selling at a slight discount or RRP right before it retires or nears retirement, then see the price shoot up when it retires or the remaining stock goes. Shuttle, Excavator, and others are already shooting up. Never ceases to amaze, because people usually had years to get the set, and probably get it at a good discount.

cloaked7

OK, make that a 4th straight post. he he

I wonder if there are a few sleepers that LEGO is keeping quiet about? A few that will be marked down and retired after Christmas? As mentioned, maybe the Apple Tree House, Fire Brigade (I know, it's been retiring for forever).

madforLEGO

^--- Agreed. That is why I got a few of 10231 before they went back up in price (and then sold out for Amazon) at Amazon. I only have a few and got most of them on discount from RRP so if they do not go up no biggie, but I think they will...
VW Van is back to 'back ordered' on S@H

Pitfall69

^Don't worry about the multiple posts. The forum police might frown upon it, but I like it. I find reading huge posts tedious and get lost sometimes.

I'm sure there will be some decent sets on sale after Christmas.

JT32

VW Camper is back at the european amazon sites as well, thankfully because I haven't bought any yet.

I'm a big fan of the Tower Bridge. I bought a couple at £150 from one of the european amazon sites, I only wish i could afford some more.

RichB

Hey everyone!! I have been following this post since around page 50 or so. This thread is great and I finally decided I had to join.

Now, with regards to the GG price drop I have noticed that based on the data over at brickpicker the GG is not dropping in price. Also I believe someone said that the IF had dropped in price too, but according to brickpickers data this also isn't the case. Just curious what everyone's data for the price decreases are based on? I do understand that this data can be quite hard to track.

legoprods

JT32 said:

VW Camper is back at the european amazon sites as well, thankfully because I haven't bought any yet.

Where?

I just sold one on eBay at 129€ and was surprised to see it go at that price in Spain. People here usually don't care that much about Lego.

LegoFanTexas

RichB said:

Now, with regards to the GG price drop I have noticed that based on the data over at brickpicker the GG is not dropping in price. Also I believe someone said that the IF had dropped in price too, but according to brickpickers data this also isn't the case.

Brickpicker's data isn't complete and it is trailing info, not current info.

Take it from someone who has sold more than 20 Imperial Flagships over the past 6 months, the price has indeed gone down. :)

Databases and price guides are nice, but the proof, as they say, is in the pudding.

GG is also down, I sold one 6 weeks ago for nearly $700, today they can be had for $500. I haven't sold dozens, but I've sold enough to know it has gotten cheaper.

madforLEGO

I usually base my 'data' on eBay prices, now while it is obviously not 100% accurate it IS the most likely place for sellers to sell their stuff, and usually the average dictates what most sets sell at in general.
But again many factors can contribute to a price rising or lowering.
I think that the overall economy of the market you are looking at is one of the big factors. If people cannot pay for a luxury, such as toys, then prices go down.. If there is a 'glut' of those sets on the market, then that will also be a factor in determining supply and demand, and by extension, how high a price can go.
Also you have to take into account other factors, LEGO is primarily an 'indoor' toy, meaning that demand usually starts going up around October November (for Christmas) and starts ebbing in April (when it starts getting warmer), so really the IF price may go up after Christmas, same with other sets that are retired for the past year, as it will be a 'peak' time to look for sets AND that people will more likely have Christmas money to buy more.
Now that is just how I do it and Im sure others all have their systems

RichB

^^ Great point LFT, their data is a month or so behind which is the best you can do in my opinion when it comes to tracking Lego set value (although if someone, somehow created a day to day value of sets like we see with the value of stocks that would be pretty sweet, but probably near impossible to do).

I wonder what the reason is for the decrease of the GG and IF? Those who have them can still make a nice profit compared to the RRP though. I wonder how much more these might drop in value?

madforLEGO

LegoFanTexas said:

RichB said:

Now, with regards to the GG price drop I have noticed that based on the data over at brickpicker the GG is not dropping in price. Also I believe someone said that the IF had dropped in price too, but according to brickpickers data this also isn't the case.

Brickpicker's data isn't complete and it is trailing info, not current info.

Take it from someone who has sold more than 20 Imperial Flagships over the past 6 months, the price has indeed gone down. :)

Databases and price guides are nice, but the proof, as they say, is in the pudding.

GG is also down, I sold one 6 weeks ago for nearly $700, today they can be had for $500. I haven't sold dozens, but I've sold enough to know it has gotten cheaper.

Lets see what happens after Christmas.. Pretty sure I saw the same thing with CC back in the day.. started really just hanging and thought it would not do much more, then bam went up 100-150 bucks... so I would say after this Spring we will see what has peaked and what is still climbing. ENs were pretty stagnant this year and really went down in demand and price was lower than in the winter when they had just sold out.. now it appears those prices are rebounding.
I think there are just too many GG in box out there to be bought and not enough demand right now, not to mention many people probably spend their 'GG' money on the massive Walmart and Amazon mods sale.

mathew

You guys might have to consider that the overall demand for big, expensive EOL sets is dwindling. Also, over time people will sell their "used" copies and that too will pull the value down of NIB sets.

JT32

legoprods said:

JT32 said:

VW Camper is back at the european amazon sites as well, thankfully because I haven't bought any yet.

Where?

I just sold one on eBay at 129€ and was surprised to see it go at that price in Spain. People here usually don't care that much about Lego.

Ha I promise it was listed there this afternoon, back up to £120 now

RichB

^^ Those are all great points regarding the IF and GG. I still have a couple IF's, but I never bought any GG's. I still contemplate if the GG is worth buying at $500-600 as a long term investment, (I would need to buy 1 to build too). But I always wonder if picking this set up for $500 now will be a good investment. Could we see this set reach the $900-1000 mark one day? I guess this is the million dollar question.

CCC

^ Maybe, but you are probably better off buying currently EOLing sets with that money rather than one that has already gone up.

RichB

^^ Very true, I already have most of what I want of the currently EOLing sets, but yes I agree that investing in currently EOLing sets is much safer. I would just love to be able to walk in my basement and see a couple MISB GG's sitting on the shelf :), but purchasing multiples at this point may be unrealistic.

turtle1173

I picked up a used GG on eBay a few months back for $350. It was one of those deals where I took a chance and it worked out. Seller had only 1 feedback and didn't even have a picture for the listing. After communicating with him through e-mail, I took the chance that I could get my money back from PayPal if I had too. The set came with the wrong minfigs and was missing about 20 pieces. So it cost me about $20 more on bricklink. Still haven't built it yet. This is going to be an "after Christmas" surprise. Can't wait!!

doriansdad

mathew said:

You guys might have to consider that the overall demand for big, expensive EOL sets is dwindling.

Do you have any proof to back up this claim?

RichB said:

Could we see this set reach the $900-1000 mark one day? I guess this is the million dollar question.

Given enough time and inflation any price is possible.

mathew

doriansdad said:

mathew said:

You guys might have to consider that the overall demand for big, expensive EOL sets is dwindling.

Do you have any proof to back up this claim?

No. Just a hunch. Every collectable has a shelf life though. I'm thinking that it's possible that the number of people collecting large Lego models could decrease over time. If prices keep dropping then I think it's a distinct possibility.

CCC

^ It's not just that, but as bigger (and smaller ones too) models get better, more people will go for the more recent ones.

Resellers need to hope that some of the new people to the area then also want older models and will be willing to pay 3-4 times the price of a current one for an older one.

madforLEGO

I think you will ALWAYS have those that want to collect every Modular out there, regardless of design, or how old the desgin is. I think you may see a decline until when those kids that could not afford the CC at the time get a well paying job to pay out for one later in life.. so you still may see a spike in those sales, and by then I think many people will be out of Sealed box sets. The question though will be can you hold them for that long? :-)

But like @CCC said, you are probably better only buying a GG or CC now if you want one for personal use or collection as while they may go up they probably are less likely to meteorically rise like some of the current sets EOL'ing.