Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

LegoFanTexas

cloaked7 said:

^^ Appears that the VW Camper is out at Amazon, that is the sold and shipped by Amazon stock appears to be gone. That didn't take long.

Interesting...

Then the 999 qty thing was an override, because the sales rank tells me it couldn't have sold that many units in less than 24 hours.

Does it come back again? :)

LegoFanTexas

CCC said:

The AC mothership is cool as are the alien figs. The downside is that you cannot get an army of invading aliens in the mothership.

That is one of those areas where a kid's imagination takes over...

But I will say the spinning action along with the UFO sound is really cool. For a few minutes anyway. :)

mressin

Funny. #7066 Earth Defense HQ is, in my opinion, one of the best sets I've ever built. Especially in its price bracket, I can think of only very few sets that sent my Lego-sense tingling the way this set has.

#7065 Alien Mothership and #7052 UFO Abduction were passable sets with nice features each. I didn't like the heli-jet in #7067 Jet Copter Encounter too much, but the alien twin-craft with its twin-functionality struck me as cool. Maybe the designer should have made the twin-craft bigger and the jet-copter smaller instead. But well.

In any way, I feel that it's easy to come up with a theory why Alien Conquest wasn't quite as popular, in particular with the target audience. In fact, the theme's lack of success seems to have almost been predictable: The whole alien theme with flying saucers, abductions, brain washing and all, seems to have been strongly influenced by 60's-Roswell-style. And I guess that's just not that accessible to today's kids, who (I guess) are thinking more along the lines of Battlestar Galactica or so.

LegoFanTexas

^ AC needed a second and third wave to do better, it was a one-and-done theme and those rarely do well. There are exceptions of course. :)

#7066 - ED HQ is indeed a great set to build perhaps, but not from a money point of view. It helps that I picked up a bunch cheap, but today they still are selling below RRP.

That is a bad sign! :)

dragonhawk

To bring the discussion back to the prediction realms, @mressin & @LegoFanTexas, what is your take on Galaxy Squad ?

mressin

Glad that you asked, @dragonhawk. :)

Looking at the sets, I guess that Galaxy Squad might do better than AC for Lego because it seems a bit more dynamic. I suspect it boils down to how kids react to insect-themed aliens. I didn't like the Insectoids theme. Did kids like that?

In any way, I don't think Lego really wants a Space-themed seller at this moment which cannibalises on the Star Wars franchise. So I would be surprised if Galaxy Squad became a huge seller. I guess it will make money for Lego, but I can't imagine it becoming particularly profitable for resellers.

mathew

mressin said:

Funny. #7066 Earth Defense HQ is, in my opinion, one of the best sets I've ever built. Especially in its price bracket, I can think of only very few sets that sent my Lego-sense tingling the way this set has.

I agree. I picked up this set during one of the YoYo.com sales. I haven't built it yet, but it looks pretty cool with lots of play features. Invokes some memories of Classic Space, but with guns (a good or bad thing depending on your stance on the issue). I could see modding it to resemble something like the Beta 1 Command Base: http://www.brickset.com/detail/?set=6970-1

The AC Mother Ship was a blown opportunity. I know they were probably restricted on piece count and price point, but the overall design is half-baked. This is one of those sets that if it could get the 'Lego Exclusive' treatment it could of been something special.

mathew

dragonhawk said:

To bring the discussion back to the prediction realms, @mressin & @LegoFanTexas, what is your take on Galaxy Squad ?

So far a weak theme. It reminds me of a kiddie version of Starship Troopers.

mathew

But a good thing for those wanting to pick up a great set. I think eventually it will do ok.

CCC

mathew said:

dragonhawk said:

To bring the discussion back to the prediction realms, @mressin & @LegoFanTexas, what is your take on Galaxy Squad ?

So far a weak theme. It reminds me of a kiddie version of Starship Troopers.

Me too. I preferred the aliens from AC to this, but by far the best one is the grey classic alien in CMF S6.

The ships in GP do nothing for me.

CCC

^ Galaxy Squad, not Galaxy Patrol.

prevere

LFT, a quick comment on Quickbooks. I've found it difficult to use for cataloging online sales. It seems to want me to add individual sales. Do I need a Quickbooks for Dummies book? LOL

mressin

Just to be clear, I liked AC. And I like Galaxy Squad. In particular the human vehicles. I was referring to reselling prospects earlier.

jack_bricks

LegoFanTexas said:

Update: Haunted House is now for sale for RRP on Amazon.com. So clearly this isn't retiring. I don't think that is a huge shock, it should be around for 3 years, but had it gone out, oh boy talk about a jump. :)

How do you interpret this action of amazon that it's going to stick around? I mean how do you know it won't be gone soon? Just want to learn of how things work.

prevere

How things work? Nobody here knows for sure. This is all about gut instinct.

IMHO...There is just no way HH is gone. That's a minimum of a 2-year set. Likely 3. I will buy a bunch at some point, but it's not even on my radar right now.

Bandit

jack_bricks said:

LegoFanTexas said:

Update: Haunted House is now for sale for RRP on Amazon.com. So clearly this isn't retiring. I don't think that is a huge shock, it should be around for 3 years, but had it gone out, oh boy talk about a jump. :)

How do you interpret this action of amazon that it's going to stick around? I mean how do you know it won't be gone soon? Just want to learn of how things work.

Why on earth does *anyone* even remotely think this is going away? That is completely ridiculous. It JUST came out. It's not going anywhere people! It will be around for years.

dragonhawk

mathew said:

So far a weak theme. It reminds me of a kiddie version of Starship Troopers.

Yeah, if kiddie Starship Trooper was what they were aiming for, GS accomplished that.
I actually like the design of the spaceships, to me they look like a cross between 80's space sets and japanese animation shows. I can't stand the insectoid aliens though. IMHO, GS would have been better as galaxy exploration sets (little to no bugs), not a conflict in space. Star Wars already fill up the fighting in space quota just fine.

Come to think of it, why do we need 2 fighting sides or some kind of conflicts to sell LEGO ? IIRC, there was no alien fighting in classic Space sets.

abenamou

LegoFanTexas said:

cloaked7 said:

^^ Appears that the VW Camper is out at Amazon, that is the sold and shipped by Amazon stock appears to be gone. That didn't take long.

Interesting...

Then the 999 qty thing was an override, because the sales rank tells me it couldn't have sold that many units in less than 24 hours.

Does it come back again? :)

999 means they can order more, but likely have less in stock.

prevere

GS is just another AC, which is just another SPIII. There is little resale value here. For boys who like space stuff great. But SW takes care of most of that.

dougts

dragonhawk said:

Come to think of it, why do we need 2 fighting sides or some kind of conflicts to sell LEGO ? IIRC, there was no alien fighting in classic Space sets.

this is my complaint as well. the budget/piece counts could have been put to use beefing up the squad side and maybe adding it some adventure/research elements.

I can only presume that extensive testing has told LEGO they need to have "2 sides" in all their sets/themes aimed at boys. Very unfortunate

mathew

dragonhawk said:

Come to think of it, why do we need 2 fighting sides or some kind of conflicts to sell LEGO ? IIRC, there was no alien fighting in classic Space sets.

I agree completely. Galaxy Squad is all too "American-ized". Classic Space was about exploration and possibilities. Lego needs to re-attempt to do this and advertise it as such.

cloaked7

It's not just LEGO. Just check books, movies, etc. There is always conflict. And, you're right, boys are all about that. Conflict or competition.

Good point, because the Friends sets are just the opposite. Even the name - 'Friends'. :-) If there's conflict I guess it's the gossipy kind. :-)

The_Mack

Bandit said:

jack_bricks said:

LegoFanTexas said:

Update: Haunted House is now for sale for RRP on Amazon.com. So clearly this isn't retiring. I don't think that is a huge shock, it should be around for 3 years, but had it gone out, oh boy talk about a jump. :)

How do you interpret this action of amazon that it's going to stick around? I mean how do you know it won't be gone soon? Just want to learn of how things work.

Why on earth does *anyone* even remotely think this is going away? That is completely ridiculous. It JUST came out. It's not going anywhere people! It will be around for years.

There are actually a few reasons why people thought/think the Haunted House could go away.
1. Monster Fighters theme is pretty much done, the Haunted House is Monster Fighters themed. So is/was it a one and done item?
2. The HH came out around Halloween time, and is Halloween themed. So some may of thought it might be a seasonal item, like the Winter Village sets. Maybe to return or maybe not.
3. It's also a very large set that has to be packed by hand. So the larger sets can sometimes get limited runs.

So there are those factors of why some think it would go away.

FatMatt

^I don't think MF is necessarily done yet. I expect it will carry into 2013 and end then at some point. The Zombies is the only one done for this year. As for the HH, there is way too much effort and investment that goes into a set like that for it to only be out a matter of a few months.

BoiseState

Glad the HH is back.. Cant decide on it or Arkham though.

The_Mack

My personal view is that the HH will be around like the MMV was. As long as sales are strong. Monster Fighter production I think is done, and it will be around in 2013 but stock will slowly dissolve off shelves. LEGO has too many other new themes to get on shelves for next year.

prevere

@BoiseState. I can't speak for Arkham. But the HH is really, really fun to build. And the thing is massive. Very impressive.

madforLEGO

LegoFanTexas said:

mathew said:

Or possibly that the desire of owning the set has diminished. I've noticed a similar trend with GG and Town Plan. Prices have dropped.

Yes, GG is down $100 or more from a few months ago, glad I sold out near the top. :)

One possibility is that GG has reached its peak. With 4 modulars out now (5 if you include HH), there are so many choices, why pay $500+ for a retired one that is missing an interior above the 1st floor?

...Because it is still a rather unique building with its green color.. Prices are dropping because there is still a glut of them on the secondary market. (same with Town Plan, which really is a collection of 3 small buildings so I can see the ceiling on that one).
Now I think that there are several factors that probably go into this:
1) HH has the same colors in it, so people may just be buying HHs for that green brick instead of trying to get GG, conversely more people could be trying to BL them with the same brick from HH.
2) I'm guessing that the lower prices are partly due to the economy as a lot of sets have falling in price from last Winter to this opening month of winter.
3) It is Christmas, and not everyone is buying a 600 dollar set for their loved one, they probably are buying current sets. I expect prices for EOL's sets to rise after Christmas (as they usually do each year).
4) Glut on the market: Again there are far more GG available now than at the same time when the CC retired, same with EN, IF, RD, etc etc. Combine all of these factors and you will get lower prices.
#8097 I think I saw hitting very near 150 consistently on eBay a month ago, but then dropped. Why? Because another 30 sellers all saw this and dumped their inventory on eBay at once. Same with many other sets... It really is a buyers market right now IMO. (so I guess Resellers actually have to be thanked for once for keep prices lower..lol)

LegoFanTexas said:

Cafe Corner might be at the peak for the same reason. If Palace Cinema turns out to be a corner building, watch CC drop by several hundred dollars in my humble opinion.

It is also possible that retired sets don't do as well during the holidays, less money for them because it is all being spent on the kiddos.

Prices may well rise again in Jan...

Cafe Corner is still climbing, albeit at a snails pace, probably also due to some of the reasons above. I seriously doubt CC will drop due to the Cinema, corner or not.
If they make another corner hotel that looks like CC complete with same color arrangement OR the Cinema has the same color scheme? Then I could see it possibly happening.
I think like you said above this is a bad time to judge the performance of these sets.. Usually the climbs occur after Christmas, when people get their bonuses, or Christmas money from Relatives.

madforLEGO

LegoFanTexas said:

^ AC needed a second and third wave to do better, it was a one-and-done theme and those rarely do well. There are exceptions of course. :)

#7066 - ED HQ is indeed a great set to build perhaps, but not from a money point of view. It helps that I picked up a bunch cheap, but today they still are selling below RRP.

That is a bad sign! :)

I think that the 'bad sign' was that almost every Walmart had these on sale for, what was it, 50% off? I think LEGO had them for 40% off. When stores need to do that it will be hard for the set to reach its RRP again. There are exceptions of course, but it is more difficult and usually takes forever IMO.

prevere

I still see AC in the stores. Probably will continue to see throughout 2013. I was a little duped by 7066 Earth Defense. I bought some for $45 at WM, and at peak, going for are $98 with free shipping. Which means about $65-70 after fees/shipping.

I guess it will eventually get to double. A nice set.

mathew

^ Walmart clearanced a bunch of sets last year, some of which have gone up quite a bit in value (Ninjago dragons) so I don't think that should be used as a deciding factor. A set like 7066 is kind of a niche: Space themed, non-star wars and expensive. For whatever reason that's a hard sell for Lego. Doesn't make it a bad set or possibly any less collectable. Again, it's a good thing for those that missed it during its run that it has remained inexpensive.

Bandit

The_Mack said:

There are actually a few reasons why people thought/think the Haunted House could go away.
1. Monster Fighters theme is pretty much done, the Haunted House is Monster Fighters themed. So is/was it a one and done item?
2. The HH came out around Halloween time, and is Halloween themed. So some may of thought it might be a seasonal item, like the Winter Village sets. Maybe to return or maybe not.
3. It's also a very large set that has to be packed by hand. So the larger sets can sometimes get limited runs.

So there are those factors of why some think it would go away.

And having been doing this for as long as I have, I think those are all completely non-sensical reasons. :)

cloaked7

Is someone applying logic? I thought this thread was a 'no logic zone'. :-) I've just been making stuff up. :-)

BTW, no logic zones. We have a lot of those where I work. :-)

richo

HH is around for circa 2 years, its got a modular lifespan, not a monster fighters one.

Yodalicious

As others have said HH has stay written all over it. Too impressive of a set and will sell well for quite some time. It'll be a money maker for LEGO for a while.

And will be the one set that takes me outside of my comfort zone into themes I told myself I wouldn't buy!!!

LegoFanTexas

^ Love the name Yoda... :)

Yodalicious

LegoFanTexas said:

^ Love the name Yoda... :)

Haha. Why thank you. I might have a little bit of an obsession with him.

avoiceoreason

On Galaxy Squad ... has a non-SW space theme ever done well in the after-market? AC, SPIII, MM, LOM, etc.

I don't think I'll be buying any GS for personal or resale. And I'm not a space hater. I actually liked almost the whole SPIII line.

prevere

^Do you consider Power Miners a space-ish series?

Crazyaddict

well, the resellers just bought out all of amazon's current GS stock. guess they don't agree with you. the irony is that none of the GS sets are even on the top 25 list on [email protected] guess they will have to wait quite long to recover their money. maybe i should buy a few, open then return them just to burn them a bit. lol.

Bandit

What makes you think it was resellers? I would think the exact opposite. There is this holiday called Christmas next week...

dougts

tons of GS stock sitting on shelves everywhere. as a reseller myself I can say it would be pretty silly for resellers to be hoarding these right now. can a few bucks be made to ignorant buyers? maybe, but not worth tying up thousands of dollars to buy up amazon inventory.

madforLEGO

For whats its worth Amazon is out of MMV currently (does not necessarily mean it is gone though)

dragonhawk

I am waiting for at least 30% off RRP before purchasing GS for my own use. I am pretty confident I will get that price by July ;)

legoprods

madforLEGO said:

For whats its worth Amazon is out of MMV currently (does not necessarily mean it is gone though)

Amazon.fr went out of stock for these yesterday. Last place to get them at a decent price of you are in Europe...

It's time to wait.

Nintendawg

So I heard news this morning that Ninjago is returning 2014. As someone who has a huge percentage of resale stock tied up in this theme and a big fan of the sets I say thankyou TLG, this is the best christmas present I think I'll receive this year.

I originally thought Chima was weaker than Ninjago, and that would drive buyers to seek old Ninjago stock. This however is even greater, and as far as I know unprecedented for one of Lego's inhouse themes. Unless they are never retired (near impossible) I believe the pre 2013 sets will be resale gold. This does slightly change my plans for the "final battle" wave (thats not a very good name now either, is it?). I was expecting this to be way underproduced so that it would not intrude on Chimas shelf space. However they may now produce a proper amount so that Ninjago has a retail presence throughout all of 2013 in preparation for a full return 2014.

Hardrada

Anyone has any knowledge or guess about when 5891 Apple Tree House might be retiring? The younger 5770 and 5771 are both confirmed EOL as far as I know (both are sold out on US [email protected] and 5771 especially has already vanished from stores over here, too), yet 5891 is shown on backorder in US and available in Europe. A bit odd.

Diggydoes

Received the first of my two ordered IS from TRU (Germany), well the condition of the box is...at least there are no holes in it or some, i guess for 199€ i shouldn´t complain ;)
I guess finding a perfect MISB IS will be almost impossible soon and they will fetch premium money when sold to a MISB-collector!

madforLEGO

I think #5891 Apple tree house is the 'standard' Creator house now and will probably be out for a little while longer. I thought I saw something about another Creator house similar to Apple tree house coming out, but Im not sure now.
Ill add the caveat of course that if you want it, get it in case it does go away. :-)

zjygkmatt

I know this is getting old, and its not on shelves as much. Recently Walmart has priced it at $99.99, but being the holidays its never around. Im hoping it pops up after Christmas. But does anyone know when this set wont be around at all in Department Stores or From Lego Shop? Its not on the retiring page yet either.