Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

Renny

My brother built both MMV and Joust and loved it. The buildings are charming and detailed and he enjoyed building all the stands and tents and positioning all the figures to portray a busy village.

littlepuppi

Guys, is monster fighters going? I know it's been discussed and nothing is certain but I'm confused as to whether its high demand that means loads of it is out of stock ( certainly in the uk) and it will be replenished or whether its off for good? If it Is going will that include the haunted house as I love that model and don't have one...

Locally here the theme is now very thin on the ground....

Lp

Ma1234

legoprods said:

Ma1234 said:

legoprods said:

^It's about time, if it's following the Beetle's pattern.

About time? Following the Beetle's pattern?

Wasn't the nettle theoretically available from 08's summer to 09's winter?

The van came out last September, and it's next winter.

True, didn't realize that. I remember the Beetles just languishing on store shelves at 25% off forever.

Nonetheless, I don't believe for a second the VW Bus is discontinued. It has another year to it. It's extremely popular, and we've seen LEGO go to "sold out" before on popular sets and they return after the holidays. Plus, on backorder into 2013 in Europe, which further shows the point.

thornie

Just got my 10212 which was shipped during the period last week where Amazon pulled it from the website to investigate how it was being shipped. Box is pretty beat up around the edges, but nothing major. Everything is sealed and looks to be in otherwise pretty good condition. Can't wait to build it!

richo

One thing that amazes me about this thread, is that I really would expect some of the big resellers to have more expertise in leaving sets. I have read on a few occasions that people bought 8-10 of this set 'just in case' its a big hit. I have been buying lego as a collector for a number of years, and I would say whilst I don't always spot or predict all the sets that rocket in value, I can often spot those sets that will do nothing in the after market. Atlantis was a classic example that (if I was a reseller that is) wouldn't have touched with a barge pole. Alien Conquest is another one to put in that same bracket. Cars is another one. Call it a spider sense...

Pacific493

legoprods said:

10030 - ISD, was amazing to build. It is actually not a good "design", in that it is old and flimsy, but wow, if you have never built a "big" set, putting it together just has lots of "wow" moments in it.

The only "wow" moments that I had in putting 10030 together was "Wow, I'm sure glad I'm done with that" and "Wow, that took way too long to build."

LegoFanTexas

^ While you are generally correct, did you predict Ninjago a year ago before it went on clearance?

#2518 sat on the shelves for 50% off for weeks. I bought hundreds of them, then finally left the rest on the shelves.

Now I wish I had every one of them. :)

Ninjago caught a lot of people off guard, and we don't want to miss something like that twice. The money to be made there is just amazing.

Of course, you're right, it is balanced against the lack of money on Atlantis, PQ, Cars, etc.

lulwut

richo said:

One thing that amazes me about this thread, is that I really would expect some of the big resellers to have more expertise in leaving sets. I have read on a few occasions that people bought 8-10 of this set 'just in case' its a big hit. I have been buying lego as a collector for a number of years, and I would say whilst I don't always spot or predict all the sets that rocket in value, I can often spot those sets that will do nothing in the after market. Atlantis was a classic example that (if I was a reseller that is) wouldn't have touched with a barge pole. Alien Conquest is another one to put in that same bracket. Cars is another one. Call it a spider sense...

Nope, it's all speculation, nothing is set in stone, anything can happen. Case in point, I went 12-2 in my NFL fantasy league. I lost the playoffs last night and scored the lowest points in he entire season because I started players on the advice of various experts.

I didn't double my money on Atlantis but I still made money on it nonetheless.

LegoFanTexas

^ City of Atlantis has turned out to be a sleeper hit, much better than Portal of Atlantis.

Some of the PQ sets are finally making money as well.

richo

^ I was wondering round my local town the other day, and in a discount clothes store, they had some older EOL sets at 30% off, nothing amazing, but PQ Scorpion Pyramid for £49.99 didnt seem bad. I left it...

prevere

On the MF question: There is a 99% chance that HH is back in 2013. If not it triples in value overnight.

As for the series, I'm torn too. I wanted to buy more MF stuff on discount lately, but have been focusing attention elsewhere.

Most of the MF sets were released early May. I have to think they will be "active" for at least a year, and quietly slip away mid-2013, with remaining inventory on "clearance" at any point from Jan through summer.

dougts

richo said:

One thing that amazes me about this thread, is that I really would expect some of the big resellers to have more expertise in leaving sets

I avoid a ton of sets - in fact, many more than I actually do buy stock of. I just generally don't spend much time talking about them.

prevere

^The flip. There are some sets we resellers target and buy, which don't get talked about at all.

madforLEGO

prevere said:

^The flip. There are some sets we resellers target and buy, which don't get talked about at all.

Like DS?

richo

^ which don't get retired at all. :-D

The_Mack

flyingpig said:

LEGO seems committed to having a TIE and an X-Wing in production at all times. Can't really argue with the logic.

The TIE and X-Wing sets are the equal of Fire-station and Police Dept of City sets. As in they always have a set available because they are very popular among the kids.

prevere

madforLEGO said:

prevere said:

^The flip. There are some sets we resellers target and buy, which don't get talked about at all.

Like DS?

Yeah, right. Pretty much all the little polybags and CMF stuff. Rarely is there much chatter there.

prevere

I was looking to buy just a few more BP and QARs, and man those things are gone everywhere.

Granted it's a week before Xmas. But poof - they've vanished, if you're a collector and want to use Xmas money on a pirate ship, you're gonna be paying more.

cloaked7

LegoFanTexas said:

#2518 sat on the shelves for 50% off for weeks. I bought hundreds of them, then finally left the rest on the shelves.

Yup, I found some Ninjago Earth Dragons months ago, got them half of half I think. I just bought them, because they were marked down so much and not because I knew what they would be worth later. Sold them a few weeks ago for a nice profit.

roxio

LegoFanTexas said:

^ City of Atlantis has turned out to be a sleeper hit, much better than Portal of Atlantis.

Some of the PQ sets are finally making money as well.

Hey, I sold Portals for average 15x what they cost me ;)

Basta

How well a set does for you depends on what you paid for it. Even duds have potential.

I just sold a Cars 2 #8679 which I had only just purchased a couple of weeks earlier for 120% profit after fees, . Granted I may have got a little more for it due to Christmas. I am also sure that the remainder of the sets I did get will move slow but for the price I paid I am willing to take the risk.

richo

^ I was going to add a caveat that #8679 is by a mile the best Cars set! lol

My only 'sleeper' hit from Cars, or at least thats my view.

Basta

richo said:

^ I was going to add a caveat that #8679 is by a mile the best Cars set! lol

My only 'sleeper' hit from Cars, or at least thats my view.

Well I have the option of buying about 20+ of #8679 at 75% off AU RRP, only problem is that all and I mean all the remaining sets are crushed in exactly the same place (big deep crease about 3cm from the edge). I was able to find a total of 5 without damage.

gmpirate

^ Hmmm, the most I see them selling for is at RRP -- with many unpurchased. I bought some at Lego clearance but I'm not sure I would call them a hit. I've purchased a some different cars sets when I find a great discount and think they are a good bet at that. 8679 is a sharp looking set, however.

Basta

In Australia it retailed for $169.99 LOL. I have seen one sell for $130 a month back, but most don't sell with asking prices from $115+. Like I said they will move slow, and I was not going to buy any more then I did even if the box condition was fine. If they drop by half again I would bite.

richo

^ I swapped one for a Mill Village Raid, mainly because I had 3 of MVR. There is something quite collectible and charming about this, compared to the dullness of many of the other Cars sets, not sure why that is. It might be the link to reality with the 'Tokyo' reference.

Basta

@richo No minifigures probably hurts the cars sets as well.

richo

^ a good point.

Basta

Would like to talk Minecraft for a second.

Obviously it seems not as big a hit in Australia as the US, although I know it is still very popular. [email protected] AU still have these available and I can still order 5.

[email protected] base shipping rate is $30 so that plus the $49.99 its not exactly a barging buying direct if you only want 1.

Buying 5 will cost me $58AUD each shipped. There are a couple of auctions ending today on eBay AU that are currently at $102 & $107 with a number of Hours to go. I would be happy selling for $87+ (I like to make at least $20 on any item I sell)

I really not sure if I should buy these or not (I will be flipping straight away), personally I don't think they are a great set or worth the money. Obviously this is not something I should be worried about as far as reselling.

The problem I have is, is TLG going to dump a heap of these after Christmas every where. Are these going to be shipped to department stores for sale? Is the interest going to drop? All these questions are making this a hard decision, even though I am unlikely to lose much money on these even if all the above occurs.

y2josh

richo said:

One thing that amazes me about this thread, is that I really would expect some of the big resellers to have more expertise in leaving sets. I have read on a few occasions that people bought 8-10 of this set 'just in case' its a big hit. I have been buying lego as a collector for a number of years, and I would say whilst I don't always spot or predict all the sets that rocket in value, I can often spot those sets that will do nothing in the after market. Atlantis was a classic example that (if I was a reseller that is) wouldn't have touched with a barge pole. Alien Conquest is another one to put in that same bracket. Cars is another one. Call it a spider sense...

Although this will be a huge generalization, what it seems like to me is that the large resellers don't necessarily care what they're buying as long as it's at a deep enough discount, where as your smaller resellers are usually much more in-tune with the hobby side of the coin. The large resellers, much like a Target or a Wal-Mart, can ultimately take a hit on all of the 'duds' they bought because they're still in the black from all of the profitable sets. I think the dud sets are much more detrimental to the smaller resellers, though they likely haven't invested in nearly as many of them.

I'm with you, though, @richo. I think it's very easy to tell what sets aren't going to do well. But I would never say the same thing about picking the sleepers.

ufjason

If you get a set cheap enough, you'll rarely sell them below retail value and can sell below retail and still do well if necessity arises. You'll always make money on the sets. The trick is speculating and selecting those that will have the meteoric rise to realize an excellent profit regardless of how you diversified.

I got lucky with Ninjago as my nephew was crazy about the TV special and I figured out quickly the media tie in would drive sales. Picked up most everything I saw at Walmart on 12/26 with the exception of a few Earth Dragons. The Earth Dragon was $17 vs Ice Dragon for $7.50 so I doubled down on the Ice Dragons. Those are my best performers as I've been turning Ice Dragons for 1500% and Earth Dragons for 900% margins. I've got some dogs like the city traffic stop from Walmart which I'll just make 1-200% on but that's still good margin.

gmpirate

Making so called "bad investments" isn't necessarily just offset by "winners". As mentioned, if you buy at a good discount, worst you will do is get your money back or make money that may not be worth your time. I'd say the real problem to avoid, and really this applies to all levels of resellers, is tying up money in sets that take long to EOL or appreciate. If you are a small reseller with limited funds that is obviously a bigger issue.

The bigger I get, the more diversified I get. Like a restaurant will put appetizers, beverages and side orders on the menu to incrementally increase ticket averages and attract a broader group of patrons, the same works with Lego. People may buy an extra set that they normally wouldn't because they can save on shipping. Or maybe they look to buy one particular set from you and discover what else you have.

The so called "duds" can just make more sense when you are doing heavy volume -- not that anyone would purposely buy a dud :P

ecmo47

Hey LFT, back on page 162 you were asked what kind of accounting software you used. Any chance you could share that info? Thanks.

LegoFanTexas

ecmo47 said:

Hey LFT, back on page 162 you were asked what kind of accounting software you used. Any chance you could share that info? Thanks.

Quickbooks

Pitfall69

richo said:

One thing that amazes me about this thread, is that I really would expect some of the big resellers to have more expertise in leaving sets. I have read on a few occasions that people bought 8-10 of this set 'just in case' its a big hit. I have been buying lego as a collector for a number of years, and I would say whilst I don't always spot or predict all the sets that rocket in value, I can often spot those sets that will do nothing in the after market. Atlantis was a classic example that (if I was a reseller that is) wouldn't have touched with a barge pole. Alien Conquest is another one to put in that same
bracket. Cars is another one. Call it a spider sense...

I would call it common sense. I do not have one Atlantis, Prince of Persia, Cars, SpongeBob, Toy Story or Alien Conquest in my home. Never bought any no matter how much they were discounted. Did your "Spidey Sense" tell you to buy as many UCS Millennium Falcons, Cafe Corners and Market Streets as you could?
* crickets chirping

I think resellers are between a rock and a hard place when it comes to providing information in this forum. If they predict something is EOL and it isn't, they are crucified. If they say a set is going to be out for another year and then it goes quicker, they get crucified, especially if "Little Timmy" couldn't get his hand on one. I also believe that because, for some, this is a nice income for them, so I wouldn't think they would give away all their secrets. Just some thoughts...

mathew

Pitfall69 said:

richo said:

One thing that amazes me about this thread, is that I really would expect some of the big resellers to have more expertise in leaving sets. I have read on a few occasions that people bought 8-10 of this set 'just in case' its a big hit. I have been buying lego as a collector for a number of years, and I would say whilst I don't always spot or predict all the sets that rocket in value, I can often spot those sets that will do nothing in the after market. Atlantis was a classic example that (if I was a reseller that is) wouldn't have touched with a barge pole. Alien Conquest is another one to put in that same
bracket. Cars is another one. Call it a spider sense...

I would call it common sense. I do not have one Atlantis, Prince of Persia, Cars, SpongeBob, Toy Story or Alien Conquest in my home. Never bought any no matter how much they were discounted.

Each of those themes had at least one very good set. From a strictly resellers POV you may be right, but as a Lego fan you are probably wrong.

Pitfall69

^I was strickly talking resell value.

As a collector, I have no interest in purchasing any sets from these lines.

forumreader

Pitfall69 said:

I also believe that because, for some, this is a nice income for them, so I wouldn't think they would give away all their secrets.

It's pretty obvious there are at least a few resellers here deliberately holding back information, which is certainly their prerogative. I do find it telling, though, when some misdirect conversation when it gets too close to markets they would like to keep to themselves.

LegoFanTexas

^ City of Atlantis was clearly the standout of that line, even more so because it was on sale multiple times for a good discount. Now I wish I'd bought more of them and saved them longer, sold too quickly on that one.

Others, I didn't sell fast enough. I've still got over a dozen Imperial Flagships that have lost $100 in value since the summer, should have sold them all last Spring.

But I'm still learning the business, I've made a ton of mistakes over the past year. Thankfully, Christmas seems to be retails way of pushing the big red reset button. A lot of stuff that has been sitting around for awhile sold this month, including a ton of stuff this past weekend.

In fact, I'm a bit shocked, this past weekend's sales were triple what I did on Black Friday weekend, perhaps that weekend is more about shopping in brick and morter stores.

While I didn't make money on everything, at least it all sold, or most of it sold. Now I have an almost empty warehouse (or I will on Wednesday when it all has finally shipped). So the question becomes, what do I fill it up with to sell next year?

That is the million dollar question...

y2josh

LegoFanTexas said:

In fact, I'm a bit shocked, this past weekend's sales were triple what I did on Black Friday weekend, perhaps that weekend is more about shopping in brick and morter stores.

I'm a bit surprised by that, though I don't know how long you've been an online presence. For me, I knew full well that this past weekend would be the biggest weekend of the year, as it's when all the last minute Internet shopping happens. In theory, it'll carry through until Wednesday, but the weekend should have brought the brunt of it.

Pitfall69

LegoFanTexas said:

^ City of Atlantis was clearly the standout of that line, even more so because it was on sale multiple times for a good discount. Now I wish I'd bought more of them and saved them longer, sold too quickly on that one.

Others, I didn't sell fast enough. I've still got over a dozen Imperial Flagships that have lost $100 in value since the summer, should have sold them all last Spring.

But I'm still learning the business, I've made a ton of mistakes over the past year. Thankfully, Christmas seems to be retails way of pushing the big red reset button. A lot of stuff that has been sitting around for awhile sold this month, including a ton of stuff this past weekend.

In fact, I'm a bit shocked, this past weekend's sales were triple what I did on Black Friday weekend, perhaps that weekend is more about shopping in brick and morter stores.

While I didn't make money on everything, at least it all sold, or most of it sold. Now I have an almost empty warehouse (or I will on Wednesday when it all has finally shipped). So the question becomes, what do I fill it up with to sell next year?


That is the million dollar question...

The Imperial Flagship dropped in price primarily because of the Black Pearl and Queens Anne's Revenge being out. Now they are gone, so I expect the Imperial Flagship to go back up in value, as well as the other two ships.

LegoFanTexas

I'm a bit surprised by that, though I don't know how long you've been an online presence. For me, I knew full well that this past weekend would be the biggest weekend of the year, as it's when all the last minute Internet shopping happens. In theory, it'll carry through until Wednesday, but the weekend should have brought the brunt of it.

I started selling on eBay back in 96, more as a lark than anything else.

By 2001, I was doing a rather brisk business on eBay, purely by accident. I owned half of a web site development and computer networking company, my partner and I had started selling on eBay purely as a way to get rid of old computer gear that either we had, or had pulled out of businesses.

Turns out there is more money in selling their old computer gear than there is in selling them new gear! :)

Did well for it for awhile, but got out from 2002 to 2009 for various reasons. But never was in the toy business. This is, by far, my first year of exposure to the toy side of things, I've always been on the computer gear side.

Last year, my LEGO sales were a trickle, just a bit of this and that, nothing serious. Now it is starting to overtake the computer side of things.

I never meant for that to happen, I didn't start 2012 thinking I'd be in the toy business. My wife says I'm addicted to LEGO, she's probably right. I need a 12 step program! :)

LegoFanTexas

Pitfall69 said:

The Imperial Flagship dropped in price primarily because of the Black Pearl and Queens Anne's Revenge being out. Now they are gone, so I expect the Imperial Flagship to go back up in value, as well as the other two ships.

Both of those sets were out for all of the past year, and that didn't stop Imperial Flagship from selling for $400+ from May to July.

Now I'd be happy with $300 a copy. :(

Yes, could I wait another 6 months and get back to $400? Probably, but what else could I do with that $300 per copy now? If I could turn that $300 into $600 in the same time, that would make more sense.

Some sets make sense to hold longer, others do not. UCS Falcon clearly is a set to hold on to, or was, I'm no longer sure it has much more room to climb.

Of course, how many you have plays a role. If you have a single Imperial Flagship, stick it in the closet and wait until Christmas 2013! But what if you have 20 of them?

mathew

Pitfall69 said:

LegoFanTexas said:

^ City of Atlantis was clearly the standout of that line, even more so because it was on sale multiple times for a good discount. Now I wish I'd bought more of them and saved them longer, sold too quickly on that one.

Others, I didn't sell fast enough. I've still got over a dozen Imperial Flagships that have lost $100 in value since the summer, should have sold them all last Spring.

But I'm still learning the business, I've made a ton of mistakes over the past year. Thankfully, Christmas seems to be retails way of pushing the big red reset button. A lot of stuff that has been sitting around for awhile sold this month, including a ton of stuff this past weekend.

In fact, I'm a bit shocked, this past weekend's sales were triple what I did on Black Friday weekend, perhaps that weekend is more about shopping in brick and morter stores.

While I didn't make money on everything, at least it all sold, or most of it sold. Now I have an almost empty warehouse (or I will on Wednesday when it all has finally shipped). So the question becomes, what do I fill it up with to sell next year?


That is the million dollar question...

The Imperial Flagship dropped in price primarily because of the Black Pearl and Queens Anne's Revenge being out. Now they are gone, so I expect the Imperial Flagship to go back up in value, as well as the other two ships.

It also might be that the people that wanted one now have one. Or possibly that the desire of owning the set has diminished. I've noticed a similar trend with GG and Town Plan. Prices have dropped.

mathew

Pitfall69 said:

^I was strickly talking resell value.

As a collector, I have no interest in purchasing any sets from these lines.

That's fine. The PoP, Cars, Toy Story and Spongebob sets do little for me as well. I like maybe one set from each of those themes. OTOH, I do think Alien Conquest and Atlantis both have a couple of pretty cool sets.

LegoFanTexas

mathew said:

Or possibly that the desire of owning the set has diminished. I've noticed a similar trend with GG and Town Plan. Prices have dropped.

Yes, GG is down $100 or more from a few months ago, glad I sold out near the top. :)

One possibility is that GG has reached its peak. With 4 modulars out now (5 if you include HH), there are so many choices, why pay $500+ for a retired one that is missing an interior above the 1st floor?

Cafe Corner might be at the peak for the same reason. If Palace Cinema turns out to be a corner building, watch CC drop by several hundred dollars in my humble opinion.

It is also possible that retired sets don't do as well during the holidays, less money for them because it is all being spent on the kiddos.

Prices may well rise again in Jan...

LegoFanTexas

Update: Haunted House is now for sale for RRP on Amazon.com. So clearly this isn't retiring. I don't think that is a huge shock, it should be around for 3 years, but had it gone out, oh boy talk about a jump. :)

http://www.amazon.com/Monster-Fighters-Haunted-House-10228/dp/B0095ZMTE6/

LegoFanTexas

VW Bus back in stock on Amazon.com

http://www.amazon.com/LEGO-Creator-Volkswagen-Camper-10220/dp/B0050R0XEG/

Some had suggested it was going out. It might still do so, but the qty shows as over a thousand coming into stock later this week.

Could be accurate, or could be a trick. :)

CCC

mathew said:

OTOH, I do think Alien Conquest and Atlantis both have a couple of pretty cool sets.

The AC mothership is cool as are the alien figs. The downside is that you cannot get an army of invading aliens in the mothership.

cloaked7

^^ Appears that the VW Camper is out at Amazon, that is the sold and shipped by Amazon stock appears to be gone. That didn't take long.