Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

gmpirate

^ why worry about things you have no control over.

mathew

gmpirate said:

^ why worry about things you have no control over.

Because he spent a lot of money on something that he cares about? Kind of silly question. However in sight of recent events, worrying about something like an expensive toy arriving in good condition is inconsequential.

It does appear that Amazon has rectified the issue and IS is back in stock for two bucks less than before: http://www.amazon.com/LEGO-Star-Imperial-Shuttle-10212/dp/B00883VGJK/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1355693377&sr=8-1&keywords=imperial+shuttle

gmpirate

^ And worrying accomplishes what?

The comment really wasn't directed at him as much as everyone who does "worry" about it. If there is a problem, send it back. If "worrying" is a problem, buy it in a B&M store while they are available.

I "worry" about how business will be next week, month, year. If my kids might be subject to some psycho, how someone is going to steal from me next. If a package will come damaged next week? Not so much . . . especially when to know I can return the item for "full" refund.

brickupdate

Ugh, I wish that price of Imperial Shuttle wasn't so darned tempting! I have 3, and was trying to justify that was my limit. But...

doriansdad

Thanks for the update on 10212. Time to start my bear collection lol.

doriansdad

Well looks like they were just price matching target...back to full price now.

thehockeyboy

I am considering running to Target and clearing them out of black pearls (they have at least 10 @ $100 per). Good idea?

Renny

I think so. You should be able to make at least x1.75 your investment by this time next year.

madforLEGO

I'm really surprised by how much the Black Pearl has been going for on eBay with the Black Friday stocks, andd 75 dollar price at the time, at every Target for these, usually those sets in the sale tend to not go up quickly at all due to the influx as in the past, so to see this rapid rise in the BP is pretty interesting.

gmpirate

thehockeyboy said:

I am considering running to Target and clearing them out of black pearls (they have at least 10 @ $100 per). Good idea?

Wow, where are you? I haven't seen one in any Target and I've been to many here in Socal.

thehockeyboy

I am in New England and have quite a few stores in my area with relatively untouched Lego isles... All friends sets, Dino sets, black pearls... Its amazing to see how much inventory is left so close to Christmas!

I went for the city clearance BOGO50 at targets and picked up about 40 money transfers and 60 of the trucks

y2josh

Renny said:

I think so. You should be able to make at least x1.75 your investment by this time next year.

They're already reaching near to x1.75 at this point, so I'd bet it's x2+. I know I'm holding on to the few I paid RRP for until next year, anyway.

Ma1234

LEGO definitely sent out a huge pre-Xmas batch to retailers. I was out and about yesterday and Dino HQs, Mines and Vampyre Castles aplenty after not having seen them for a month.

Brian

thehockeyboy said:

I am in New England and have quite a few stores in my area with relatively untouched Lego isles... All friends sets, Dino sets, black pearls... Its amazing to see how much inventory is left so close to Christmas!

I went for the city clearance BOGO50 at targets and picked up about 40 money transfers and 60 of the trucks

40? 60? Wow, that's amazing.

allmybricks

^ I'd say. This is a prime example of why I feel it's pretty pointless to do small scale reselling. Stashing 2 of them away is not worth it when there are so many out there trying their hand at reselling with dozens and dozens.

It's going to take a lot for those sets just to get to MSRP in the near term. Even as an exclusive, #3661 has been available for 2 years... there are a lot of them out there.

@thehockeyboy - I say take them all back and buy the Black Pearls. :-) Much less work on the backend and probably more profitable.

LegoFanTexas

^ Small scale reselling makes sense if you personally enjoy the process of it. If it feels like "work", then no it isn't worth the trouble in most cases.

But to each their own. :)

As fir #3661 - I have a few of them, maybe 20 or so, for just the reason you describe.

Could I have gone out this week and picked up more BOGO plus clearance? Yes. Should I have? Maybe... The problem is, there are thousands of Target stores with dozens of resellers all hitting them up at the same time. This one will be depressed for awhile.

There are better places to put money. I'd take a dozen Black Pearls at full RRP before I'd take 50 more copies of Bank.

Of course, I bought 20 copies of BP at $75 on Black Friday, already sold every one of them for nearly twice what I paid. I love this business. :)

y2josh

^And you thought I was crazy to say the Pearl would be pulling in $150 by Christmas. :D

thehockeyboy

Only issue I have is making sure I don't blow my budget (and storage) on sets at RRP rather than going out and buying clearance after the holidays. I am not a small time reseller, but am almost to the point of having a nice 4 year rotation for sales: I have high quantity of sets stored from 09/10/11/12 so that next year I will sell the 2009 and as they go out the 2013 sets will take their place.

And anytime I can snag a good set like those city ones I got for 50%+ off... why would I return them?! :)

LegoFanTexas

^ Two words...

Home One

:)

LegoFanTexas

y2josh said:

^And you thought I was crazy to say the Pearl would be pulling in $150 by Christmas. :D

I deny ever being part of that conversation, that must have been someone else you were talking to, clearly not someone as intelligent as I must be! :)

*ducks and runs away*

thehockeyboy

LegoFanTexas said:

^ Two words...

Home One

:)

Wasn't it EOL in 2011? So it would be too early for me to call it a dud (though of course its shaping up to be that way!)

And these city sets have a much better playability that I doubt, once this initial surge dries up, that they will ever sell for under RRP.

LegoFanTexas

Dec 2010... So it has been 2 years, and still well below RRP...

tk79

I think 3661 will do well. It's a bank (a necessity for any respectable town) and a good playset with a nice looking armored car...and kids can only save the museum so many times before they'll want something new, right?

y2josh

thehockeyboy said:

LegoFanTexas said:

^ Two words...

Home One

:)

Wasn't it EOL in 2011? So it would be too early for me to call it a dud (though of course its shaping up to be that way!)

And these city sets have a much better playability that I doubt, once this initial surge dries up, that they will ever sell for under RRP.

I think the Star Wars license is its own worst enemy at this point... at least until the new films come out and they can get some 'fresh' sets. For the time being, I think the rehashes are hurting the System sets. Though there are still some winners to be found, I don't think a set like the 'always available in some version or another' X-Wing is the 'clear winner' it once was.

madforLEGO

LegoFanTexas said:

Dec 2010... So it has been 2 years, and still well below RRP...

Agreed, its a dud I think. Especially since the A Wing is returning and I believe Ackbar is supposed to be with that set too.
While there are a couple of figures exclusive to that set, I doubt it will be near RRP any time soon.

LegoFanTexas

http://www.amazon.com/LEGO-Exclusive-Limited-7754-Calamari/dp/B002I44FDE

Free shipping, $91.27 for Home One - This set was $119.99 RRP and retired 2 years ago.

BoiseState

I tried the reselling thing.. To make any money(say, 1k profit a month) it ended up feeling like a job and not a hobby. If you have the free time I think you can make some pretty decent money from home, but with a demanding job it's just not worth it(to me).

LegoFanTexas

BTW, what is REALLY sad is that after fees... that seller on Amazon will receive $69.25 for that set if you buy it.

And that doesn't include that he had to ship it to Amazon's warehouse in the first place, plus pay 30 days of storage there, plus you have the right to open that set, decide you don't like it, return it, get a 100% refund and really screw the seller.

The seller's account would be charged $77.58 if you return the set, costing the seller $8.33 (What Amazon charges the seller to ship that set), plus the seller gets an opened/used set back that they have to pay Amazon to ship back to them, and can't resell as new.

What a DEAL! :)

flyingpig

Target putting stuff on clearance this week right before Christmas was really weird. 50% off the Naboo Starfighter seems like the better deal versus the bank/trucks. LA Westside/South bay targets are out of NSFs now by the way.

Or MF Zombies at Target. Now out of stock at target.com online and in store! Buy now!

Renny

At least the silver lining (albeit a slight one) is that the set was available for around the $75-$80 mark for quite some time before it was discontinued so a seller should be able to recoup their losses, although taking into account the storage space and tied up money, I guess it's been a bust of a investment. Like I said, it was a tiny silver lining :)

gmpirate

y2josh said:

I think the Star Wars license is its own worst enemy at this point... at least until the new films come out and they can get some 'fresh' sets. For the time being, I think the rehashes are hurting the System sets. Though there are still some winners to be found, I don't think a set like the 'always available in some version or another' X-Wing is the 'clear winner' it once was.

If Lego had space between rehashes the X-Wing would do very well in-between. i.e. republic gunship, falcons, AT-TE's, etc.

legoprods

^
Now looking at the Home One... it does look like a good set to invest on. It went by completely unseen for me here in Europe, too bad, because I think it my do very well.

Reasons? 4 exclusive figures, three of them are pretty interesting and not many people like it (now) and are buying it.

I don't know why but it reminds me to Cloud City...

Ma1234

What's wrong with the Imperial Shuttles? There was a recall?

legoprods said:

^It's about time, if it's following the Beetle's pattern.

About time? Following the Beetle's pattern?

The Beetle was out forever and languished on shelves with red tags.

The camper is simply sold out for the holidays. It's barely a year old and not discontinued.

mressin

madforLEGO said:

LegoFanTexas said:

Dec 2010... So it has been 2 years, and still well below RRP...

Agreed, its a dud I think. Especially since the A Wing is returning and I believe Ackbar is supposed to be with that set too.
While there are a couple of figures exclusive to that set, I doubt it will be near RRP any time soon.

I'm actually interested in a Home One, if anybody wants to sell me one below RRP. I'm in the UK, however. ;)

flyingpig

gmpirate said:

y2josh said:

I think the Star Wars license is its own worst enemy at this point... at least until the new films come out and they can get some 'fresh' sets. For the time being, I think the rehashes are hurting the System sets. Though there are still some winners to be found, I don't think a set like the 'always available in some version or another' X-Wing is the 'clear winner' it once was.

If Lego had space between rehashes the X-Wing would do very well in-between. i.e. republic gunship, falcons, AT-TE's, etc.

LEGO seems committed to having a TIE and an X-Wing in production at all times. Can't really argue with the logic.

legoprods

Ma1234 said:

legoprods said:

^It's about time, if it's following the Beetle's pattern.

About time? Following the Beetle's pattern?

Wasn't the nettle theoretically available from 08's summer to 09's winter?

The van came out last September, and it's next winter.

monkeyhanger

^^ I can't see the "commitment to a Tie", they only just put out the new Tie this year after a few years gap since Vaders Tie advanced and an even longer stint without Tie to the previous standard Tie (done in black and blue). Who knows whether they'll immediately replace it when the current one is pulled. The X-wing is a different story, prior history has shown that they always seem to have one of these on the go. The current Tie was a long time overdue and looks great. It would make sense to have a couple of iconic vehicles always available in one iteration or the next.

Bumblepants

It will be interesting to see how soon after ROTJ the new films pick up and if they try and carry over any ships like the Falcon or the X-Wing. I would guess yes to the MF if Han returns but I bet they will introduce a bunch of new stuff to add interest and to also sell merchandise. Will also be interesting to see how much OT stuff gets made in Lego once the new films are getting cranked out.

CCC

thehockeyboy said:

Or maybe TLG is gonna be sneaky and absolutely flood the market with these at some point... hype the product up and have resellers salivating over their profits so that when those 500,000 hit the stores the resellers snatch them up right away thinking they will flip them for profit!!! But lets hope that Lego isn't that ruthless ;-)

That would have been a really good idea on lego's part - get the buzz then dump loads onto the market just in time for Christmas. But if they were going to do it, it would have been done by now. Whether they go to resellers or people that actually want the set, they'd sell them all.

I'm waiting for the day that minecraft fans realise they can use other lego bricks as a way of expanding their minecraft sets. I reckon at least 50% of people will never add to their models. Actually, I reckon that 50% of people getting them for christmas won't even be playing with them by 1st January. Build them, stick them on the shelf, get back to game playing online.

Yodalicious

^ And I'd say you're being generous at 50%. Minecraft would be higher than all other sets I'd think, but still have a great majority who leave it as is.

CCC

By 50%, I mean 50% + - 45% ! - in other words, I don't know but I reckon a significant proportion.

monkeyhanger

Bumblepants said:

It will be interesting to see how soon after ROTJ the new films pick up and if they try and carry over any ships like the Falcon or the X-Wing. I would guess yes to the MF if Han returns but I bet they will introduce a bunch of new stuff to add interest and to also sell merchandise. Will also be interesting to see how much OT stuff gets made in Lego once the new films are getting cranked out.

If they set it 40 years in the future, perhaps Harrison Ford could reprise his role as a creaky Han Solo, just like he did in the recent Indy film "Indiana Jones and the lost buss pass" (or was it Kingdom of the Crystal Skull?)

Yodalicious

CCC said:

By 50%, I mean 50% + - 45% ! - in other words, I don't know but I reckon a significant proportion.

I like that math!

Pacific493

LegoFanTexas said:

http://www.amazon.com/LEGO-Exclusive-Limited-7754-Calamari/dp/B002I44FDE

Free shipping, $91.27 for Home One - This set was $119.99 RRP and retired 2 years ago.

It was also routinely discounted throughout its lifespan and heavily discounted (50%) at the end of its lifespan.

doriansdad

Home One was a complete dog even at 50% off. The magnet sets with the removable figs killed this poor set. Good news was that TLG did offer 50% off sales back then. Nowdays they would have slapped a Retired Soon banner on it and it would have flown off the shelves.

turtle1173

We built home one a few months ago. Home one is one of those sets that I had low expectations for since it gets bad mouthed. I was very much surprised, as it is a great build with some technic incorporated into it. The removeable engine and turning platform was/is a huge hit with my son. Overall, thoroughly enjoyed it and was impressed. Having said that, the MSRP was crazy on this for its time (wasn't it $109.99?). That probably had a big impact but maybe the figs and other issues you all have pointed out was the main issue. I got mine at TRU on a sale for around $49.

Another set that really surprised me was the Torrent. TRU couldn't hardly give that away. I recently bought a used "lot" that had the torrent in it. Again very low expectations. All I can say is "wow". This is a great set. Really just blew me away, on how great the features were, coupled with my certainty that this was a dog. No minifig selection here but a tremendous build, IMO.

Now, buying for resell? No way! But it does make me ponder the depths of why some of these sets tank. And also to realize that it may have zero to do with how much I will enjoy a set.

LegoFanTexas

^ All good points, and I have to agree, sometimes sets that "everyone" says are terrible, turn out to be the most fun to build. Others that everyone "raves" about, quite frankly suck... in my opinion...

MMV is one of those that everyone is so happy with, that I had to force myself to finish, just doesn't do anything for me.

GG is another, everyone says it is so great, but to be honest, I thought it was boring. CC was terrible and I'll sell that set some day.

Others do deserve the kudos they get. Tower Bridge is indeed as amazing as it seems like it should be and deserves every bit of respect it gets. The VW Camper Van is amazing once built, very detailed and tons of fun.

10030 - ISD, was amazing to build. It is actually not a good "design", in that it is old and flimsy, but wow, if you have never built a "big" set, putting it together just has lots of "wow" moments in it.

madforLEGO

LegoFanTexas said:

^ All good points, and I have to agree, sometimes sets that "everyone" says are terrible, turn out to be the most fun to build. Others that everyone "raves" about, quite frankly suck... in my opinion...

MMV is one of those that everyone is so happy with, that I had to force myself to finish, just doesn't do anything for me.

GG is another, everyone says it is so great, but to be honest, I thought it was boring. CC was terrible and I'll sell that set some day.

Others do deserve the kudos they get. Tower Bridge is indeed as amazing as it seems like it should be and deserves every bit of respect it gets. The VW Camper Van is amazing once built, very detailed and tons of fun.

10030 - ISD, was amazing to build. It is actually not a good "design", in that it is old and flimsy, but wow, if you have never built a "big" set, putting it together just has lots of "wow" moments in it.

I guess i should have clarified myself when I said 'dud' I mean in relation to what it cost new. Now it may be a nice set, but I think most people would agree it was well overpriced for what it looked like IMO.Which I think is the main reason why everyplace had to discount them.

mathew

LegoFanTexas said:

^ All good points, and I have to agree, sometimes sets that "everyone" says are terrible, turn out to be the most fun to build. Others that everyone "raves" about, quite frankly suck... in my opinion...

MMV is one of those that everyone is so happy with, that I had to force myself to finish, just doesn't do anything for me.

GG is another, everyone says it is so great, but to be honest, I thought it was boring. CC was terrible and I'll sell that set some day.

Yikes, saying MMV sucks is pretty harsh. I think that you are unfairly comparing it to the modulars in scale. For the Castle theme, MMV is a milestone. Look at the majority of Castle MOCs and you'll see both the influence and the actual remnants of MMV.

madforLEGO

I think MMV is one of those few sets where there really is no conflict implied in the set. It has a couple of solders, but they are just carrying a chest if I am not mistaken. Most other sets for Castle show raids or sticking up carriages, but I think MMV ( and technically the jousting set) one of first sets to just show every day life in medieval times without a castle around.