Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

Basta

@legoprods the 3 #9450 I ordered are for immediate resale, I seem to be making enough to support my Lego habit without having to hold on to inventory until EOL. Maybe once I get my own collection up to date I can start holding a few sets.

With #10231 the US [email protected] has it as expected delivery from the 2nd Jan 2013, the AUS [email protected] is still listed as Sold Out. I wonder if Lego has one last lot left in a US warehouse and is just not shipping at the moment to concentrate selling other more current sets for Christmas.

prevere

The shuttle will be a nice 2x of retail next Xmas I think. Especially with a lack of strong non-Star Wars space options right now.

Dad

^ Already sold for £139 in UK. That is 1.7 RRP already!!

richo

^ maybe I should sell mine. I wonder if the fact that I converted it with some orange to look like moonraker 1 will have an impact...

Billybrown

@ Dad There was a £139 sale on ebay if that was yourself? From skipton? Thats a good profit and quite a surprise. I managed 5 from Amazon.es earier in the year. There was a Uk seller who had 20+ of them for £90 ish and they've been taken off now and looking quite rare.

mathew

So is 10231 indeed retired? I just placed an order on Amazon for one as I don't want to regret not getting it.

Billybrown

mathew said:

So is 10231 indeed retired? I just placed an order on Amazon for one as I don't want to regret not getting it.

I phoned up Lego [email protected] (UK) today and they told me it gone up in smoke.......Sorry couldnt resist - they just said they wernt sure if they were getting anymore in. No plans of deliveries at present.

kim43235

If you have amazon visa card, you can take 20% off with TOY20OFF coupon code. $68 + tax for 10231. The coupon seems to apply all lego sets. It's up to $20 saving so up to $100 purchase.

Billybrown

kim43235 said:

If you have amazon visa card, you can take 20% off with TOY20OFF coupon code. $68 + tax for 10231. The coupon seems to apply all lego sets. It's up to $20 saving so up to $100 purchase.

Wish I could buy from Amazon.com..they wont suppy to the Uk, yet Amazon.co.uk supplies USA? Your so lucky ;-)

dougts

10231 is on the confirmed EOL lists. how much remains in the supply chain is the only question

Dad

Billybrown said:

@ Dad There was a £139 sale on ebay if that was yourself? From skipton? Thats a good profit and quite a surprise. I managed 5 from Amazon.es earier in the year. There was a Uk seller who had 20+ of them for £90 ish and they've been taken off now and looking quite rare.

No, that's not me. I was just looking through recently retired sets 10231, 4184, 4195, 10193 which has just sold for £120, £105, used for £75. I know it's Christmas but that is crazy for a set that has been out for 4 years to increase so quickly by 70% ( 10193 ). 10178 was the same. I am only talking about the UK but I don't think every man and his dog is sat on 20 of these. It just makes me feel better about the 10188's I'm sat on.
I do have a few 10231's. Was quite dissapointed today when I opened an Amazon parcel and thought I had ordered another one earlier in the week but it turned out to be the Technic Supercar! I honestly could not have told you what was in the parcel!
You can still get the 10231 from Pixmania but i have never purchased from these and just don't feel comfortable doing so. Don't know why, just got to go with your gut feeling sometimes.

Nintendawg

Hello everyone at Brickset. I have followed this thread for quite a while and decdided to finally register here and join in the discussion. I used to buy sets, sell the figs and keep the parts but for the last 15 months I have just been selling the sets new and complete. I got burned pretty bad early on with some sets (atlantis and pop). But I think I understand the market better now.

It's actually pretty easy to figure out what will be sought after in the future. As has been said earlier in the thread, the hard part is predicting the actions of other resellers. I try to keep a shortlist of the best deals ever available for the highly desirable sets, to try and get a floor on what other sellers will likely list them for. Also this year I have been looking very closely at exclusion lists for sales that stores run. In a way I use the Toys R Us exclusion list as a sort of reverse shopping list. Ninjago and Friends are almost always excluded. What does this tell us? It says to me that there is such strong demand for those themes they can easily sell them all at RRP or above.

As an Australian reseller (sorry Basta, this country aint big enough for the two of us /jk) most reseller oversatured sets are impossible to make money on currently. Despite fire brigade having an RRP here of $299.99 I can't compete with the international sellers. So instead of the safe bets like modulars and other exclusives, Im stocking up on different stuff. You guessed it, I'm following the exclusion lists and getting lots of Ninjago and some of the key wave one Friends sets. Last Christmas I had a few expensive sets up (modulars, mmv and the like) and I never really made any money. This year has been a great success mainly on the back of Ninjago and Minecraft.

Now I must stress not ALL Ninjago is good. The first wave was a lot weaker than the second and left a bad taste in the mouth of resellers and quite possibly Lego themselves. From what I have gathered, please correct me if Im wrong, Lego decided to end Ninjago in 2013, before they had a decent chance to see the fanstastic wave 2 sales figures. Every parent I have spoken to has been shocked that Ninjago will be ending shortly andI was quite surprised myself. But before one can make money from Ninjago one must understand Ninjago.

Ninjago is a very story driven theme with a huge emphasis on the minifigs. Everyone wants a full set of the figs it seems. Lego also obviously know this, spreading the figs between every set so you have to buy them all. As you all know already the 4 or 5 ninjas all have different versions. Some common and boring, some highly sought after. With the DX and ZX spinners were often good buys if you could get them early and sell while they were red hot. Kendo versions were never worth it. However the problem with these DX and ZX versions is Lego always later stuck them in a set along with others and a vehicle, instantly devaluing your stock. Which brings me to my main point.

Lego has created the perfect storm with NRG versions.

1) I can honestly say they are among the coolest if not the coolest non licensed figures ever.
2) Not a single version is available in an actual building set. Spinners only.
3) The spinners were underproduced, with quite a short shelf life.

Now I know that Chima comes out next year and that it is supposed be 30% more successful than Ninjago (lol). But does anyone really believe that? I can see Chima driving a whole generation of older Ninjago fans into their dark ages.

LegoFanTexas

Has anyone considered that while Ninjago might take a short break, LEGO might be working fast behind the scenes to bring it back for a 4th wave next Christmas?

It is selling really, really well, only a crazy insane company kills such a product.

Just food for thought...

And yes, the NRG spinners are clearly the ones to have, some of those are doing crazy numbers.

Pitfall69

^are those number driven by this time of year? What will the spinners be going for after Christmas. Ninjago is selling well now, of course. Will anyone remember Ninjago a year from now? 2 years? The same goes with Friends I think.

wilbur

Even though those lines don't mean anything to us, that doesn't mean those sets wont be "timeless" for some kid who 20 years from now is an AFOL who got started in lego building Ninjago. Even more so for Friends, which seems to have a monopoly on the young girls building toy market

tamamahm

LegoFanTexas, I am not sure I see them doing a 4th wave, BUT... I could see them doing a large specialty set for next Christmas if they felt Chima wasn't doing so hot in the first wave.

I also agree, it does seem crazy insane to kill such a line, but they truly seem to be thinking that Chima will be even that much more popular than Ninjago. With that sort of mentality, yes... I do see them capable of killing Ninjago completely and this being the last wave. To me it would be smart to hedge their bets, and create a few items for next fall, but again, I'm not convinced they would do even that, if they are that convinced Chima will be 30% more in sales.

Nintendawg

Pitfall69 said:

^are those number driven by this time of year? Will anyone remember Ninjago a year from now? 2 years? The same goes with Friends I think.

Partially. Sales were have been especially strong over christmas. But compared to most lines it seemed like a fairly easy sell all year round. Even in the unlikely event that Ninjago was ignored by everyone, the NRG figures are different enough to anything else ever made that they can stand on their own as "those elemental guys" or whatever kids in the future call them.

I could be wrong with this Ninjago thing. But I have tied up probably 50% of my reselling budget on it. I'm planning to go in pretty hard with the 3rd "Final Battle" wave too. I can see Lego making a paltry amount so that they aren't stuck with them when Chima rolls out and takes its shelf space.

Pitfall69

wilbur said:

Even though those lines don't mean anything to us, that doesn't mean those sets wont be "timeless" for some kid who 20 years from now is an AFOL who got started in lego building Ninjago. Even more so for Friends, which seems to have a monopoly on the young girls building toy market

I don't know about that. I grew up with the first minifigures, but I have desire to complete my collection of 1978-82 sets. I have more interest in new sets. Unfortunately, I came out of my "Dark Ages" during the crappy Town Jr. sets.

madforLEGO

wilbur said:

Even though those lines don't mean anything to us, that doesn't mean those sets wont be "timeless" for some kid who 20 years from now is an AFOL who got started in lego building Ninjago. Even more so for Friends, which seems to have a monopoly on the young girls building toy market

I think that most themes would hold to that theory if you can wait 20 years to sell them. The question is: how much will they sell more for in that 20 years.

madforLEGO

US Amazon also has FB for 120.

Pitfall69

^You have to also understand that the longer you hold on to a set, there is a chance that it will lose value because of inflation. Even if you bought a set for $50 20 years ago and you sell it for $100 you aren't making any money.

wilbur

@Pitfall Perhaps that is normal. Personally I really want a few flagship sets from the early 90's that i just didn't ever get my hands on as a 7 or 8 year old. I know I just totally dated myself but whatever! At any rate I think many folks feel that things from "their childhood" are classic, while the stuff that came later is mostly crap. I certainly feel that way about fox kids cartoons, Disney movies, and several toy lines (not TLG). To me, Ninjago is just one of many things that "came later." but those first Pirate LEGO sets... CLASSIC!

Pitfall69

^I don't disagree. I want the Monorail set. I've always wanted that. If one falls into my lap I will be very happy.

Nintendawg

I can see Ninjago being remembered very fondly by its fans. And for those that emerge from there dark ages it will be amongst the first things they want. I remember when I first returned to lego after 12 years. The first thing I wanted was the castle and pirate sets I never got from my childhood.

Nostalgia always works the same way, just for different things!

*please note I am not suggesting the holding of Ninjago sets 12 or more years for resale.

LegoFanTexas

madforLEGO said:

US Amazon also has FB for 120.

Yes, and Imperial shuttle is nearly 20% off at $209!

Anyone who has missed this, that is the deal to buy!

LegoFanTexas

Jabba's Palace at $99 on Amazon as well. Some good deals right now...

111ins

too many ^^ and that darn amazon uk, de, fr.... anyone want to buy some LEGO?

thornie

^^^ Just purchased my Christmas gift to myself... Imperial Shuttle, Death Star, and Town Hall. I also picked up Riddles of The Ring and Mirkwood Spiders. I used my 20% off Amazon coupon as well. I was going to also get the MF for $119, but it's back to being out of stock. All in all, I'm happy with the prices I paid, especially for the IS. Thanks for the heads up.

mathew

Anyone looking to pick up #10231 amazon has a few "like new" sets in stock for $73.

mathew

LegoFanTexas said:

madforLEGO said:

US Amazon also has FB for 120.

Yes, and Imperial shuttle is nearly 20% off at $209!

Anyone who has missed this, that is the deal to buy!

Probably my most desired in production set, but I just don't know where I would display it. It's too big for any shelf. I also don't like that its so fragile. I have to be able to swoosh my models. Regardless, I cant really afford it even at its current sale price.

FatMatt

Thanks for nothing, LFT. I really didn't need two more Shuttle's:)

LegoFanTexas

FatMatt said:

Thanks for nothing, LFT. I really didn't need two more Shuttle's:)

You bet, any time I can help, you just let me know. :)

FatMatt

^Well......there was that list you were talking about:)

littlepuppi

I wonder how many IS's amazon.com have... They seem to have been selling them at a cracking price for ages now...

Billybrown

littlepuppi said:

I wonder how many IS's amazon.com have... They seem to have been selling them at a cracking price for ages now...

Same has been happening on Amazon.it for IS. Im certain they would have sold out by now had it not been for blocking purchasers outside Italy and its surrounding areas. They seem to have killed themselves doing that. I managed 66 of them at around £150 each from there but need to reduce that number quickly to free up funds.

Basta

Nintendawg said:

(sorry Basta, this country aint big enough for the two of us /jk)

LOL np,

Dont think I am a threat to any one, I may annoy some sellers as I generaly list at the low end of what other Australian sellers are listing thier items at, but i'm not selling much, few items a week. I try to buy low and flip it as soon as I get it, so I only get select sets. I dont keep most of what Im selling for more then 4 weeks.

Although today I got 3 x #10216 Winter Village Bakery (One for personal use) and that was from a local B&M store (Myer) for $62.95, this will be one set I will be sitting on for the time being as it is only selling for around $90 on AUS eBay atm, but as it appears to be gone from all major online stores globally and sold out on all [email protected] sites, I could not pass up the opportunity. I also have an extra #10225 R2-D2 that I'm not selling, mostly because I did not get it for a great price.

Pitfall69

I think the Imperial Shuttle is majestic. The bright white is easy on the eyes. To me, the large UCS models are not meant to be played with. They are meant to be displayed. In my opinion, one of the best Star Wars models Lego has produced. This is going to be a great seller in the aftermarket. It's on its way out, so I highly recommend grabbing one. Especially at the current price.

DaddyDeuce

Can anyone give me an update on the EOL status of the current Millennium Falcon, X-Wing, and TIE Fighter? I'd like to make sure I put aside one of each of these for building later, but I'd prefer not to spend the money right now since I'm closed to tapped out for Christmas.

Am I assured of being able to get them in January/February, or are any of them expected to be gone?

monkeyhanger

Daddydeuce: If you were to prioritise, i'd get the MF first out of those 3. The X-wing and Tie should be available for a fair while yet.

Bosstone100

Hmm... Dino is completely sold out at [email protected] My how time passes. Should have picked up an extra Dino HQ.

cloaked7

I'm a little late on this thread. Looks like the $73 'like new' shuttles are gone.

mathew

cloaked7 said:

I'm a little late on this thread. Looks like the $73 'like new' shuttles are gone.

They were gone within minutes after I posted.

FatMatt

^^Keep checking your gold box as I have picked up a few over the last few weeks out of my gold box for about $80 which is still a good deal.

gmpirate

^ Thanks!

dragonhawk

monkeyhanger said:

Daddydeuce: If you were to prioritise, i'd get the MF first out of those 3. The X-wing and Tie should be available for a fair while yet.

What is the outlook on the aftermarket value for 7965 ? It is an iconic model so I can't blame TLG for releasing a new MF set every 3-4 years. Just by how much 4504 is currently selling on eBay, it does not look too encouranging.

thornie

^ I'd imagine 7965 will be $200-250 in the aftermarket. Not bad if you pick it up for $119, but not great.

LegoFanTexas

^ & ^^ - You have to buy and flip the MF before the next one comes out, if you wait too long (like anyone who still owns 4504), then it goes down in value.

As for $200, yes, it will easily do that in the after market. But of course once you put fees and shipping on there, it isn't as pretty, but still worth doing.

The bigger question is... When will it EOL? I thought it was going out this year, but I could be mistaken.

FatMatt

^^The thing is, they were readily available for $100 and even $90 throughout the spring and summer, so that was the price to buy them at. I'm sure some Walmarts had some crazy clearance prices on them as well.

LegoFanTexas

My local Walmart still has the shelf marked $99 for MF, but of course they don't have any. :)

FatMatt

^That has been the case with most of the Walmarts I have been to recently. I don't think I've seen them in a Walmart for about a month or more, and prior to that there were not many.