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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    I have no idea... All I know is that they are sold out, which "usually" means they are not coming back.

    I don't think this is a building set, the real purpose is to put them on the center of each table at your wedding reception.

    Or so I understand...
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,172

    So I can say that there ARE times a retail WANTS you to take all they have, when it is EOL items that they need the room for anyway, in this case they were perfectly happy with it. I did ask (as I always do) if they wanted me to leave a few of each and they said no, please take it all.
    Ok Please do not take this the wrong way, but I do not think you have to justify your buying.
    If you want to buy a ton of LEGO then good for you, or to whoever is doing it, but boasting that you keep buying all of this LEGO is not going to stop the complaining or agitation people appear to be feeling.
    I would say just let it go.. Everything that was said was said and I would like to think it is water under the bridge, but if people keep trying to go back to it and justify all of the purchases they make it is just going to lead threads into an ugly direction again IMO.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    @madforlegos - oh, I'm sorry, I think you took my post the wrong way.

    I honestly wasn't thinking of that bulk thread event, the idea of "shelf clearing" has been brought up before in other threads, I was referring to the concept, not that event.
  • DavidRod8DavidRod8 Member Posts: 143
    I don't think that @LegoFanTexas is trying to justify his buying... I like the fact that he shares so much (as many others do in this forum) about offers and what he feels would be a good investment and what isn't... There will always be haters in this and every other hobby... Hating because they either missed a sale, didn't have the money at the time or simply were to chicken to pull the trigger and buy more of a particular set...

    I remember while dealing in another hobby there used to be a lot of other people with resentment towards me because I was always able to find the latest and greatest, but what they didn't know was that it took a lot of time and effort to acquire those items.

    I don't know about you guys, but the last month I feel like I have been eating, sleeping and breathing lego, reading this and many other forums, studying ebay, amazon, tru, target, etc etc etc.... I think after the 26th I won't be able to go to TRU for a while anymore ;) This is the time to buy, so do your research...

    I appreciate the input that most people make in here, and a lot of times I scan through a feed to see LFT comments, because I feel like him and I think a lot alike (Although he's a lot more of a risk taker) I have read his posts, taken his comments into consideration and then gone out and made my own investments ;)

    That's just how I see it... Maybe others feel a different way... It's hard when you are writing on a board and not speaking to someone in person...
  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,360
    +1 to above
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    Nice comment @DavidRod8. I was thinking about what someone mentioned on this forum last week: that there are surely 'lurkers.' Those who have deep pocked for LEGO 'investments,' and use the forum to find deals, but don't share deals or otherwise contribute in the conversation.

    That's 100% fine by me, to each his own, no judgement there.

    But it does make me appreciate how open someone like @LegoFanTexas is - that he does share his thoughts and purchase history. I find that not only useful as a collector, but feeling like I am actually involved with a community.

    Which is what I love about this forum.
    Thanks everyone! (even you lurkers!)
    -Dan
  • avoiceoreasonavoiceoreason Member Posts: 224
    because they have SuperHeroes and Friends coming next week and need the shelf space for them
    Did they really say they were going to be stocking shelves next week with Friends? Still watching the clock to see if they show up anywhere in the next nine days so a few can make their way under the Christmas tree.

    My local Lego store has always pretty strictly adhered to the release dates. Then again their shelves are bare so maybe they will put it out early just to fill up space!
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited December 2011
    My original intent of this thread was to discuss potential sets that people thought were about to EOL; especially as we come to the end of the year when many sets are EOL'd. Obviously, my interest/curiosity regarding EOL sets is also of interest/curiosity to a lot of other lego enthusiasts...AND I LOVE IT!!!!

    For my part, I've made an attempt to pass on info regarding sets that have EOL'd, which is of interest to those planning to resell. What's more, I have got some great deals on several of EOL'd sets because of comments by others found here...and more power to those who have done the same. What's even better is that I've learned many things about legos from the perspective of other AFOLs who have similar interests. Finally, I (as an adult) feel I can't discuss this hobby with non-AFOLs (their jaws usually drop when I bring it up), so these discussions with brother AFOLs are like getting to listen to experts without leaving my home.

    In short, many thanks to those who have participated in this discussion and shared their experiences. It's helped me to enjoy this awesome hobby even more!
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    @avoiceoreason - I think the exact words were "we have SuperHeros and Friends coming for the Christmas season and need the space".

    Later in the conversation, he said they were getting a shipment of SuperHeros on Monday, he did not give me a date on Friends.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited December 2011
    I ordered a couple SuperHero sets as Christmas gifts for my kids. They are into the Hero Factory stuff, and the Batman/Joker seem to be similar. I really hope they come as the kids don't even know they're available and will be really surprised.

    To @LegoFanTexas's point, there are a lot of new sets coming for the new years, so out with the old and in with the new. I expect to see some decent after Christmas sales this year.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited December 2011
    "It's official: LEGO lands 'Hobbit' license..."

    Okay...this will certainly impact which sets going EOL in 2012 (and may have some impact earlier than that). It will certainly impact the SW series to some degree as people only have so much money to spend and LOTR is really popular (worldwide). Toss in the SuperHeros and Friends along with other newly released 2012 sets and I don't see how many sets now offered by TLG will still be offered in 6 months. This could even significantly impact this year's after Christmas sale. Since TLG's primary time for selling their products is around Christmas, there could be some other really good sales throughout 2012. Woo hoo!
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,172
    I believe this means that any Potter or PoTC left is going to be discounted for the Christmas sale to get rid of it.
    But that is just a guess
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    Not too much of a surprise, but it appears that the EOL talk about GE was off the mark. It's back in stock at [email protected] and Amazon.
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    Tantive IV is now listed as Sold Out at [email protected]
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    I suspect GE will be a mid-year retirement... With Town Hall coming, I doubt there is room for 3 modulars...

    FB was probably supposed to retire now, but with the mess that batch 39R1 has been, they made more to replace them.

    I took my four 39R1 sets to the Lego store last night and swapped them for 44R1 batch sets. They didn't even bother putting them into the computer, just handed me new sets. They are getting extra shipments of FB they said to provide these replacements.

    Lego seems to still be undecided as to what to do about 39R1. The first idea was to provide "patch kits" directly to customers. The second idea was to send patch kits to stores and have the stores open all the sets and replace the bags.

    I don't think Lego has had a screw up this big in a long time.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    10198 was always going out this year, no surprise there.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited December 2011
    Not too much of a surprise, but it appears that the EOL talk about GE was off the mark. It's back in stock at [email protected] and Amazon.
    One never knows... The Emerald Night has gone on and off sale several times, but I think the general consensus is that it's gone. In fact, Lego CS told me that it was officially gone the week after Black Friday (as I know they told several others posting here). That said, I agree that the GE will be around for a bit longer.
  • BTHodgemanBTHodgeman Member Posts: 622
    @LegoFanTexas - they could sell the 39R1 FBs at half price. I'd buy many...

    There's some risk there I suppose since an unscrupulous person could resell it to an unsuspecting mother for near full price.

    I'd be willing to buy the "bags only," without box or instructions for half price. I suspect many others on here would as well.

    Brent
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    @BTHodgeman - you make a great point...

    Perhaps the stores should just break them all open and make Grab Bags out of the bricks and be done with it...
  • BTHodgemanBTHodgeman Member Posts: 622
    Grab bags are even better... I think you could fit all of an FB into just a few grab bags (minus the base plates).

    At $7.99 apiece, I like that idea. :p
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I'd buy any of the modular buildings (GE, PS, FB) for half price. I only have one of each, and when that's the case I never know if I should hold to resell or build.
  • BTHodgemanBTHodgeman Member Posts: 622
    @Farmer_John - Build them! Even the used sets have quite respectable resale amounts...

    I also only have one of each and plan to build them all.

    Brent
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693
    edited December 2011
    I suspect GE will be a mid-year retirement... With Town Hall coming, I doubt there is room for 3 modulars...

    There has pretty always been three modulars at a time since FB came out, and it will very likely stay that way. There was a gap last year with Green Grocer, but that can be attributed to LEGO moving the modulars from fall to spring releases.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I suspect the Lego Cars theme has been a bust for TLG with the prices being where they are. I would be mildly surprised if they aren't discounted in the after Christmas sale. I think the die cast cars are a much better value than the lego version for this particular series, but that's just me.
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    I just posted my farewell blog post to the Emerald Night. In the end, I have 11 of them. I included photos of them all:

    http://brickupdate.com/farewell-to-lego-emerald-night/

    It's funny how some sets capture our attention, and we obsess over them. Other retiring sets are barely mentioned. I'm thinking here of the Star Wars battle packs.

    I saw that Imperial Flagship's price went back up on Amazon. That's another one I have my eye on. WON'T be getting 11 of those! :)

    Anyhow - thanks everyone!
    -Dan
  • The_Brick_BuilderThe_Brick_Builder Member Posts: 658
    ^^ My jaw just dropped!!! How could you buy 10 of a same set! I could never push myself to do that. You will enjoy the profit of about $1500 in few years.
  • DavidRod8DavidRod8 Member Posts: 143
    Looks awesome! Count me in as part of the 10+ club!
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    If only the EN came in different colors (not that I don't like the dark green). I would have 10 as well. The EN in black would be absolutely fabulous!
  • JohnnyFiveJohnnyFive Member Posts: 10
    Hi guys,

    Recently got the Lego bug after buying a few kits for my daughter, most recent being the camper van and space shuttle adventure for Xmas. Just noticed the Maersk container ship has sold out on the UK Lego store. Has it gone for good or will it be restocked?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,172
    I think the Maersk Freighter is gone... well until they decide they want to make another batch of them in a few years...lol j/k.. or maybe not, some people do not realize this was the 3rd release of the same ship...
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    Thanks @The_Brick_Builder Coming from a family with a long history of collecting, I have gotten more comfortable with buying multiples over the years. I also feel as though there is little financial risk as well. I know that is always debatable, but that's my comfort level with it. Also: I love this set! I wouldn't do that with "Big Ben's Bustout" :)

    @Farmer_John I suppose you could mod them to make a rainbow of trains!
  • drdavewatforddrdavewatford Hertfordshire, UKAdministrator Posts: 6,659
    edited December 2011
    Like this, you mean....?

    image

    One of the Brickish guys built these I think....
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    Woah! @drdavewatford very cool. I'd love to see some weathering on them a bit though, or maybe just the decals from the Emerald Night set.

    Also: love the Tardis behind them!
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Like this, you mean....?
    Sweet!
  • Si_UKNZSi_UKNZ NZMember Posts: 4,179
    wow, those are stunning!
  • dremel99dremel99 Member Posts: 123
    I am so done with TRU and Target. The EM sets I ordered back on the 12th or whenever that evening was that Target was selling out, I ordered and there were 87 left, after ordering 3 of them I received the conf. email saying my order was placed and showing the info. Never heard anymore from them, no shipping emails etc. Called them today and they looked it up and said the order didn't get processed, they don't know why, it wasn't a payment problem.

    I will not order anything further from either one of those stores, I don't care if they are giving the sets away for free including free shipping.
  • andystarandystar Member Posts: 275
    @dremel99 - I also ordered two EN on the 12th and never received a shipping email. However, my two orders were delivered on Friday the 16th. I went through shopdiscover for the 10% discount. Wonder why mine went through and yours didn't.
  • dremel99dremel99 Member Posts: 123
    Did you have an acount you signed in with? I just purchased as a guest.
  • andystarandystar Member Posts: 275
    @dremel99 - Yes, I was signed in when I bought them.
  • pcironepcirone Long Island, NYMember Posts: 346
    I ordered 6 that night, all when stock was less than 50 units. All were received on friday the 16th.. I used shopdiscover.com for the 10% and was signed into my target account (not guest).

    Maybe the common denominator for those that received it was not checking out as "guest" ?
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    It appears that the Tantive IV is now gone for good. It must have been more popular than I thought as it was out about a year longer than I would have expect.

    With the IF selling out, I just can't see the PotC lasting through mid-2012 at the lastest. There are now two "pirate" ships and zero "good guy" ships. At the very least, I see the QAR going away, perhaps at the after-Christmas sale. I would love to pick up a few of these big ships at half-price.

    There are so many sales on PQ that it has to be going away. The final PQ set (7325) is now being heavily discounted at the Zon. It's just a matter of time.

  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Northern VirginiaAdministrator, Moderator Posts: 5,232
    ^ Online maybe but I imagine stores still have plenty of Tantive IV for the Christmas sale.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Unfortunately, there isn't a lego store even remotely close to where I live, so I only get what is on sale via [email protected] The bad news is that I can't just "run over" to see what the deals are. The good news is that states that don't have stores are not charged sales taxes by TLG, thereby saving 5-10% more.
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    Tantive is one of those sets that I feel like they have been trying to retire for many months now. I had bought one and returned it over the summer, and the employee was surprised, telling me it is retiring. Six months later, it's still around, even after discounts.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    I do have 4 Tantive IV sets set aside, but that is all. I suspect these will be not as bad as Home One, but close. It has been out a year too long and it is too brittle. They didn't do a display stand for it and it doesn't have the carry handle and landing gear of the new Republic Frigiate.

    I enjoyed building it very much, but it was also one of my very first sets out of my dark ages, and it just sits on the shelf now, not much I can do with it.

    If it is 50% off on Dec 26th, would I get 4 more? Yes, I would, dollar-cost averaging, but that is probably it.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Anyone else notice that Tower Bridge has been sold out for a few weeks on Amazon?

    I've always assumed this has at least a year left, since there appears to be nothing to replace it (the way it replaced Taj Mahal), but is there any chance it will just disappear?
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Long time lurker/first time poster: Came out of the dark ages few months before the UCS Falcon came out (still have 4 left) since I was a kid. Took a year break and got back into it this fall.

    Think the Bridge is too new to go away. Always got the impression Tantive was/is not very popular. Never bought one to date. I'm very pro on the Pearl and QAR -- although the Pearl may take awhile as it has been in huge abundance (even Costco) until just the last day or two. Still, black hull/sales, unique figs -- should be good down the road.

    Observations around Socal last few days: HP: Except for Lego stores, Harry Potter is sold out everywhere -- practically all gone. Star Wars: AT-AT's all gone except for 2 I found at TRU. One Lego store has plenty of EN's if you don't mind the tears on the boxes from the sale stickers. Plenty of EF's and Dropships. Tons of the Battle of Endor sets out there -- TRU especially.

    Can't wait for tomorrow (Monday). Lego stores (5 close by (7 within an hour) get their new shipments in tomorrow! 1 pick-a-brick box per $75!!

    Ok, wife is giving me a hard time as I'm peaking out between the boxes stacked floor to ceiling in my office :P Better get to bed :/
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    You have 4 10179 left from the close out sales? :) Nice... But I'd personally sell them now, I think it has reached the top, I think the market for people willing to pay over $2K is very, very limited.

    I just tried to pick one up today, was haggling with the guy, turns out he bought it 6 months ago. When I realized that, I realized that we were just trading sealed sets among resellers and passed, told him nicely that if we're both trying to resell it, there are too many middlemen in the picture.

    Last 10179 I bought off Craigslist for $1,300, sold it in a month for a $300 profit on eBay. Can't complain about that, so long as it went to a home that opens it, otherwise we have a bubble.

    You found two AT-AT? Hope you bought both! Or were they way overpriced? Battle of Endor is a sleeper in my opinion, it won't rise fast, but it is better than Home One.

    You didn't buy the ENs? You can flip those for a quick profit these days, and if you sell them before the price gets too high, the boxes shouldn't matter. In my opinion anyway, and this is coming from an anal box person. :) I've found with my selling that most people are not as picky about boxes as I am.

    My local Lego store is out of pick-a-brick boxes, but that is ok, I have enough already... How many does one person need? :)
  • charactersoncharacterson Member Posts: 1
    What about the Imperial Shuttle? Does anyone consider this a good investment? I apologize if I missed an earlier mention.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    I think about selling the falcons but seems there are still a ton of them on the market. Can't see the market falling on this set. Very unique and the economy is pretty bad as it is. Probably would have sold them all around the $1200 mark except that I decided at the time I had better concentrate on my business more. Just started checking current prices on some of the sets that I still have from when I stopped recently (10178's, 8039's, 7676's & 75's) and just got inspired all over again. You know I once had almost 50 Sail Barges?!?! But my thinking was much more short term at the time. Money was not an issue since I was flipping sets pretty quickly.

    The EN market isn't solid yet and I don't want to waste my time on small profits. Just can't justify my time.

    Bought the two AT-AT's with the BOGO offer. I'm sure they will still pop up at Lego stores still.

    Thought Home One was a terrible set. I actually like Battle of Endor although there is nothing great about any of it. Seems to be a good value, however, with 12 figs, a building, AT-ST and the flying thing. Just a bunch of small sets in one box. I'd buy it at great discount but think there are better bets.

    All the freebies at Lego store really add up to great discounts as well if you sell them. Buy Diagon and get the mini train and two pick-a-brick boxes. All those Christmas sets and brick apples really add up as well.

    No one talks about them much here, but the Technic sets actually sell pretty well too. I just sold a few random sets that I bought for parts last year for good profit. I plan on buying the Unimog when the time is right.

    Two boys (7 & 9). I gave the oldest all my Legos from when I was a kid and now he is every bit the nut I was. Our whole family room is one big Lego display. Can't tell you how many keychains and Minifig Series packs I've bought them when I take them down to Downtown Disney with me. The first year or so they could handle going with me but nowadays they don't want to go and just watch me buy Lego for myself :P
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