Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

gmpirate

Undoubtably Dino will do better than AC & Pyramids, but I think the big hype is just Christmas right now. The Dino Defense was the first thing out of one of my boy's mouth when asked what he wanted.

Its not exactly a AFOL set.

flyingpig

dino defense hq has been great as a short term christmas flip. Not quite minecraft but still profitable.

Doubtful sort of staying power and a low max appreciation value. Not worth storing till next Christmas unless there is a post-holiday fire sale.

BoiseState

Kids will always love dinosaurs.

flyingpig

BoiseState said:

Kids will always love dinosaurs.

It's just too bad kids don't have $200 to spend on retired lego sets

graphite

^ Good thing there are plenty of parents willing to placate their kids by spending $200 on retired lego sets.

BoiseState

No, but kids usually don't have more than a few bucks. It's the parents shelling out the money, and considering it was out for sometime hopefully the kids that wanted it got it already.

y2josh

We actually have plenty of Dino Defense HQs (and all of the Dino sets, actually) stocked in the Wal-Marts around me (Gaston, Indiana). I may try to go grab one or two tomorrow.

littlepuppi

Dino defence... Hmmm , can't hurt have a couple just in case.... As others have stated was also going to avoid the theme, but maybe if everyone is doing that the resale market will be good?!

Yodalicious

y2josh said:

We actually have plenty of Dino Defense HQs (and all of the Dino sets, actually) stocked in the Wal-Marts around me (Gaston, Indiana). I may try to go grab one or two tomorrow.

Same here (Tampa, FL). Plenty at WMs and Targets.

littlepuppi

Oh well, seem to be posting all the time since moving from lurker to forum member! Thought I would share an interesting lunch time with you lot :D

Went to toys r us to collect my Y wing (x4) which are half price a TRU at the moment, and had a few interesting things happen..

While I was in the store I thought I would checkout the lego aisle, 4 x Fire Temples reduced to 59.99, so could not resist, also spend 75 (or more) and get a £20 gift card...

So I took all 4 along with my Y wings! Could have got 4 gift cards out of it if id divided to 4 transactions, but in the end only went with 3 as didn't want to be toooo much of a pain!

Fun started at the till though... Being served by a noob, who took about 10 mins to serve the person in front of me... Even though it was a straight forward transaction, so I was mentally prepared for some feckless behavior....

Didnt take long to start...

TRU stick an "R" sticker over the barcode so you cannot scan it (but this was because I reserved them and collected them from the reserved counter) sort of fair enough, if you assume some intelligence, however this woman proceeded to type in the barcode 4 times, rather than once and put x 4.. Even though I suggested that may be quicker.....

While she was doing this and taking an age, and the Q was building up, I then have the manager appear who says "excuse me" - im thinking, what now at this point!

"If you are a retailer buying to resell, we only allow the purchase of 1 set"

So I said, "im not a retailer, im a collector and a reseller"

This seemed to confuse him for a short period...

He then said, on this occasion I could make the purchase but in future it was 1 set per person!?

I told him, I own about 100 sealed sets, and have often bought multiples and never heard of this before... He seemed to think it was policy....

Anyway that further delayed me.... Shop assistant proceeded to conclude the transaction (4 x fire temples in 2 x 2 format to maximize the voucher), and I breathed a huge sigh of relief when I got out!

Would not have enjoyed that on a Saturday!

Anyway moral of the story, TRU seem to have a policy on multiples, although I have never know this before, next time, if its Y wings, I may just say im building a fleet :D

In addition - relating to my previous post, I saw 2 other people with Lego in their trolley in the shop (there were not many people around) and both had DINO!!!

Deffo going to be getting a couple of sets I think...

wilbur

Thanks for sharing! In my experience the only redeeming factor regarding my TRU shopping experience is that the staff are often very ignorant and therefor very easy to manipulate. I got some killer deals a few months ago by convincing them that the B2G1 free Birthday sale included MMV and IS.

thehockeyboy

In the US, the Dino sets consistently sold for more than RRP on eBay. Even if only $5 more and no profit to be had, this was unlike any other lego set. The shelves in my stores were emptied of Dino for probably the first 9 months of release.

As some people said, kids love dinosaurs, AFOLs don't. But these were in high demand in the US. I stocked up on the $12 battle packs because these will sell for an easy $30 within a year. Parents may not spend more than $200 for a set for their child, but will spend $30.

And dinosaurs is a recurring movie theme, so these will always be relevant. When the next Dino movie comes out, smart sellers will take advantage.

FatMatt

Just wondering if anyone knows the date/month of when the final Ninjago wave is to be released?

cloaked7

As there been much discussion about TMNT? The sets are at TRU, and there's a TMNT cartoon on Nick. Which means there's a tie-in to drive demand. Will it be the next Ninjago? The sets don't appeal to me, but I'm an adult. Those with kids of cartoon age have an advantage on these types of sets. They have in house consultants. What do the consultants say? :-)

y2josh

I can't speak to the LEGO, but we stock the Playmates figures, and I have, on six separate occasions, completely sold out of them within 48 hours of receiving my shipment each time. So I think these will do well in the aftermarket, if only due to the minifigs.

JT32

Is 10220 Campervan gone for good or just short term in the UK? I only ask because it's disappeared from amazon.it and .es?

Legofanscott

JT32 said:

Is 10220 Campervan gone for good or just short term in the UK? I only ask because it's disappeared from amazon.it and .es?

Its in stock on the lego website

Legofanscott

Whats everyones thoughts on the monster fighters theme here in the UK?, zombies is now totally vanished, amazon has now stopped selling the vampyre castle and werewolf set, wonder if this theme will still be going this time next year?

prevere

^Heard there is a cartoon - if so definitely yes. If no cartoon - I still think this will have a wave two (considering the HH will still at least have another year or two on [email protected]).

sidersdd

legoprods said:

^^True! I fell in love with the ISD the first time I saw it, even I that have never been a fan of SW movies. It's giant, sleek and elegant. I just love elegant things.

I think the aftermarket for the ISD will be better, but also remember that ISD's price point is too high for the parts you get. As LFT pointed out a while ago, ISD should have been 249... maybe 300$

Get yer SSD at Target.com now. It's marked down to $320. They have a 20% off sale going on today for a few items (including it). That brings it to $256. Use your Red Card for another 5%, and you're at $243.

FatMatt

The Zombies set is showing as Sold Out at [email protected] since yesterday or the day before. I'm wondering if the it was indeed one of those short-lived Target exclusives. If so, then it should do pretty well given the nature of the set, especially if you got them during the Target $30 sale. I can see this set easily doing $80 or even breaking $100 if it is truly gone. I don't get the appeal of Lego zombies, or zombies period, but the general public seems to love them. It seems like there are more movies about zombies made than anything else.

Legofanscott

FatMatt said:

The Zombies set is showing as Sold Out at [email protected] since yesterday or the day before. I'm wondering if the it was indeed one of those short-lived Target exclusives. If so, then it should do pretty well given the nature of the set, especially if you got them during the Target $30 sale. I can see this set easily doing $80 or even breaking $100 if it is truly gone. I don't get the appeal of Lego zombies, or zombies period, but the general public seems to love them. It seems like there are more movies about zombies made than anything else.

If the set had been an exclusive zombie graveyard then it would have been an awesome set, i simply never bought it as i dont really rate it at all

Dougout

^Yes, I never paid much attention to the Zombies, but I've seen people scouting the Target isles for them on multiple occasions. Seems to be a good demand, too bad this theme is going.

Whats the consensus on Grand Emporium? [email protected] moved its status back to available and it's currently the only place to get one. My local store hasn't had one in awhile and is declaring that Fire Brigade will be going soon as well. In just the ten minutes I spent in there yesterday, I saw two people walk in and ask for it specifically.

dougts

sidersdd said:

Get yer SSD at Target.com now. It's marked down to $320. They have a 20% off sale going on today for a few items (including it). That brings it to $256. Use your Red Card for another 5%, and you're at $243.

thanks! 40% off a UCS set is pretty hard to beat. Also picked up an Orc Forge (Target exclusive), which was also on the 20% off deal.

legoprods

sidersdd said:

legoprods said:

^^True! I fell in love with the ISD the first time I saw it, even I that have never been a fan of SW movies. It's giant, sleek and elegant. I just love elegant things.

I think the aftermarket for the ISD will be better, but also remember that ISD's price point is too high for the parts you get. As LFT pointed out a while ago, ISD should have been 249... maybe 300$

Get yer SSD at Target.com now. It's marked down to $320. They have a 20% off sale going on today for a few items (including it). That brings it to $256. Use your Red Card for another 5%, and you're at $243.

If only I were in the US right now... ;) I hope there are good sales during the summer! These would be my first summer looking for Lego over there.

mathew

Dougout said:

Whats the consensus on Grand Emporium? [email protected] moved its status back to available and it's currently the only place to get one. My local store hasn't had one in awhile and is declaring that Fire Brigade will be going soon as well. In just the ten minutes I spent in there yesterday, I saw two people walk in and ask for it specifically.

Did the other customers specifically ask for Grand Emporium and or Fire Brigade? I wonder If both were to go, what set or sets would fill the void left on the shelf?

gmpirate

GE is in every store I go to.

FollowsClosely

sidersdd said:

Get yer SSD at Target.com now. It's marked down to $320. They have a 20% off sale going on today for a few items (including it). That brings it to $256. Use your Red Card for another 5%, and you're at $243.

Grrr, I need to stop visiting this site. Another SSD in storage it is.

Dougout

Yes, one woman was already inquiring about it when I walked in and she was still talking to an employee when I left. Another man came in briefly after I did looking for the GE stating that he could not find it anywhere. The one employee who was helping them both was trying to sell them on the Fire Brigade by saying that that store hadn't had any GEs in quite some time and FB was in line to go next.

mathew

If Palace Cinema is indeed a corner then I wouldn't be surprised to see GE go early.

cloaked7

The FB EOL'ing is just like the Chicken Little tale. :-)

It's EOL'ing! Errr... No it isn't. LEGO changed their mind. Who said that anyway?
It's EOL'ing! Stock up now! Errr.... Oops, no it isn't. Just like to see you scamper around buying up stock.
It's EOL'ing! I really, really mean it THIS time! Errr.... Sorry, just a test of the emergency broadcast system.
It's EOL'ing!
The sound of crickets.
Yawn... We've heard that before. Several times.

LegoFanTexas

sidersdd said:

Get yer SSD at Target.com now. It's marked down to $320. They have a 20% off sale going on today for a few items (including it). That brings it to $256. Use your Red Card for another 5%, and you're at $243.

I always said the SSD was overpriced at $399, and it was...

At $243 delivered, that is a deal!

I think at that price, I might just add a dozen to the stash. :) I was going to wait another year before doing so, but that is a heck of a deal.

LegoFanTexas

FollowsClosely said:

Grrr, I need to stop visiting this site. Another SSD in storage it is.

Ahh, they killed the deal. I got 2 of them, went back to reorder 2 more, they changed the price back to $399. So while it is 20% off that, it isn't the "deal" anymore. :(

Oh well, got two of them for $243. :)

Brixy

Thanks for the target tip got an orc forge. Alas I missed the zombies, hoping demand drops a bit after Xmas then I will try yo get one then.

dougts

Brixy said:

Thanks for the target tip got an orc forge. Alas I missed the zombies, hoping demand drops a bit after Xmas then I will try yo get one then.

if there is any left - Zombies is confirmed EOL this month

Brixy

Oh. Thx for the info. Will turn to ebay. Are any of the others EOL as well?

Brickbase

sidersdd said:

legoprods said:

^^True! I fell in love with the ISD the first time I saw it, even I that have never been a fan of SW movies. It's giant, sleek and elegant. I just love elegant things.

I think the aftermarket for the ISD will be better, but also remember that ISD's price point is too high for the parts you get. As LFT pointed out a while ago, ISD should have been 249... maybe 300$

Get yer SSD at Target.com now. It's marked down to $320. They have a 20% off sale going on today for a few items (including it). That brings it to $256. Use your Red Card for another 5%, and you're at $243.

You people in the U.S. are so lucky. I already consider myself lucky when I can buy it for $400, let alone $243.

legoprods

Oh well, back to the lowest European price... 413$

Yay!

legoprods

Back on topic, actually what @JT32 gives food for though. It has just been deleted or sold from all amazon websites within Europe, and it actually is time for that set to go, looking at what happened to the Bettle.

So you think that it's going, it looks like a really nice set! I really enjoyed it... so maybe...

Dad

^Back at amazon .fr 76 euros. I just keep picking these up every now and then

Basta

legoprods said:

Oh well, back to the lowest European price... 413$

Yay!

Its only $319 at Amazon.com, but I assume you cant order it or you have to pay VAT ? I'm tempted as it's only $360 shipped to Australia.


Does anyone know if the SSD will be around for another year, or is it going sooner?

Legofanscott

Basta said:

legoprods said:

Oh well, back to the lowest European price... 413$

Yay!

Its only $319 at Amazon.com, but I assume you cant order it or you have to pay VAT ? I'm tempted as it's only $360 shipped to Australia.


Does anyone know if the SSD will be around for another year, or is it going sooner?

I would say another year is for certain although i somehow can't imagine seeing it being around for as long as the DS.

Can't wait to know what next years UCS sets will be though:)

prevere

What was once a resellers' delight has become a 50/50 proposition with UCS sets.

1) Obi-Wan Starfighter is a dud.
2) The retail price on these has gone up with fewer discounts available (including some very short-lived ... sometimes extremely short-lived ... deals) - SSD and DS - I'm talking to you. This makes the climb to 2x-3x MSRP a longer one.
3) Sets that refuse to retire - we all know who that is.
4) Yes IS is great, yes R2 is good too (available for a discount for awhile as well) - these are the current winners, IMHO.

brickupdate

I agree with you @prevere. I think for SSD, aftermarket value will all come down to how quickly it retires and how much stock is left at that time. To me, a hulking mass of gray bricks that offers zero play value and retails for MSRP will be always be a hard sell. As you mention, R2D2 is iconic for really anyone, Imperial Shuttle ended up being a beautiful model, and Death Star is infinitely playable. But SSD will collect a lot of dust, and nearly always require an explanation. "Remember when, in that one 5 second scene in Jedi, when...."

I grabbed one today in the Target sale for something like $260, just to have one. But I likely won't end up with more than that.

Now, the flipside of the logic here, as I am sure @LegoFanTexas would point out, is that an expensive set that doesn't get stockpiled may have a better chance in the aftermarket, such as the Imperial Dropship set.

Fun to guess!

LegoFanTexas

brickupdate said:

I grabbed one today in the Target sale for something like $260, just to have one. But I likely won't end up with more than that.

Now, the flipside of the logic here, as I am sure @LegoFanTexas would point out, is that an expensive set that doesn't get stockpiled may have a better chance in the aftermarket, such as the Imperial Dropship set.

Fun to guess!

Yes, you called? :)

I picked up 2 more today, $243 delivered is just crazy good for that set, I was going to buy more, but they pulled the extra 20% off before I had a chance.

I agree with everyone's points however, SSD will do well or poorly depending on how long it stays.

If it surprise retired this year, it would do well, but it won't, I think it will be next year before it goes. How many more times deals like this come along, will determine how well it does.

Anyone paying RRP for it, will do much worse because of these deals.

I now have 8 of them, paying an average price of about $300 each. That is 25% off RRP.

Diggydoes

What ya´ll think about the MF-Ghost Train #9467 ? Will this kind of train also perform well once retired just because it´s a train?

y2josh

^Because it's a train and because it's a nice set, yes. I think most of the MF sets will do well post-retirement, honestly.

Diggydoes

Hmm i guess i´m gonna stick to the few trains that i have at hand (instead of returning them)!

BoiseState

I think MF will do very well.

gmpirate

There is a big supply of trains out there and they continue to be discounted. Is it because they made too much? Or because they are not as popular???