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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Predictions on discontinuing bubble wrap and their secondary value.
    Penkid11UKtsumiDiggydoes
  • allmybricksallmybricks Member Posts: 156
    Looks like they added a few more sets with the retiring soon tag.

    http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Retiring-Soon

    #10212 and #10217 included
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Bubble wrap?? I thought we were discussing the best airplane to use for shipping our packages and the pros and cons of each.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ^I don't know. I think everyone have lost their minds.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    allmybricks said:

    Looks like they added a few more sets with the retiring soon tag.

    http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Retiring-Soon

    #10212 and #10217 included

    I think the consensus was that indeed these were retiring soon. I guess this is icing on the cake.

  • legodorklegodork Member Posts: 20
    allmybricks said:

    Looks like they added a few more sets with the retiring soon tag.

    http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Retiring-Soon

    #10212 and #10217 included

    Odd that 3937 Olivia's Speedboat is among the retiring soon sets. It's been out only 5 months. And why only 9674 Naboo Starfighter & Naboo from the Planet series.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Pitfall69 said:

    Predictions on discontinuing bubble wrap and their secondary value.

    I think the small bubble will go first, the large bubble is a slower seller, but more profitable, so it will stick around for awhile.

    Or so the guys at the local packing supply store tell me! :)
    LegoPodcaster
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    allmybricks said:

    Looks like they added a few more sets with the retiring soon tag.

    http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Retiring-Soon

    #10212 and #10217 included

    10212 is not a surpise, but nice to see 10217 on the list. Several people have posted here that 10217 would stay until 2013, but that was always debatable.

    Now we know...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    gmpirate said:

    Bubble wrap?? I thought we were discussing the best airplane to use for shipping our packages and the pros and cons of each.

    :) What can I say, I was just sharing what I thought to be some interesting information. I have many stories to share if anyone wants to hear them. But this probably isn't the place to do it. :)
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ Well, being the ditto head that I am, I do enjoy hearing interesting side bits of information ;)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    legodork said:

    Odd that 3937 Olivia's Speedboat is among the retiring soon sets. It's been out only 5 months. And why only 9674 Naboo Starfighter & Naboo from the Planet series.

    Clearly that is just a partial list, LEGO is retiring more than just that list this year.

    I would expect most, if not all the small Friends sets to go away. All SW three planet sets are ending as well, we have Series 3 coming out in early 2013 if I understand correctly.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    DA isn't a surprise, but I was hoping for a little more time on that guy. Strange that a set like Shuttle Adventure wasn't listed (though is clearly retiring); and a tiny racer set called the Crazy Demon is given a "retiring soon" designation.

    I think they are pulling from their top 50 overall sellers or something like that for this list.
  • DadsAFOLDadsAFOL USAMember Posts: 617
    It may have something to do with stock counts as well. Many sets are EOL ( using the definition: no more coming off the factory line) but have plenty of stock. So it's probably EOL + < x days in inventory = "retiring soon"
  • DadsAFOLDadsAFOL USAMember Posts: 617
    And I suppose that means EOL + > y days in inventory = "clearance"
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Did you just make up a new math equation?
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,074
    edited December 2012
    Lego did not create the "Retiring-Soon" tag to help resellers. I would think that it is meant to move product. So one can assume that the sets that are not selling out as quickly as they like go on this list. A way of pushing thoes on the fence to buy without lowering the price. Just my 2¢ .
    givemeabrick
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    FollowsClosely said:

    Lego did not create the "Retiring-Soon" tag to help resellers. I would think that it is meant to move product. So one can assume that the sets that are not selling out as quickly as they like go on this list. A way of pushing thoes on the fence to buy without lowering the price. Just my 2¢ .

    Or... to get resellers to buy out the remaining stock at full price. ;)
    chrisdojomadforLEGO
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    Marketing wise it is a brilliant move on TLG part. They added some extra push to move older stocks without lowering the price
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    dragonhawk said:

    Marketing wise it is a brilliant move on TLG part. They added some extra push to move older stocks without lowering the price

    Yes, so long as it goesn't get abused...

    The sets marked retiring soon, must actually go away soon. If they take 1-2 months to retire, fine. If they end up sticking around for 6 months, the label becomes meaningless.
    dragonhawkandystarchrisdojo
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Yeah, I'm sure Crazy Demon will now fly off the shelves. The new tag will be interesting. I'm gonna guess that come the 1st of the year or mid-Jan, those tags drop whether they are sold out or not, or...

    Maybe it's an indication of which sets will go to clearance after Xmas.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Bubble wrap, air bags, cabin pressure of planes. Interesting stuff to be sure. What about shipping to the great state of Hawaii? That may involve bubble wrap and will definitely involve a plane or two.

    I just had a person buy a big front end loader of mine #8265 and I just checked FedEx and it's going to cost $30.00 to ship it. And, I had shipping listed as $12. So, I guess I get to eat the $18 difference?

    Do you put anything about only shipping to the contiguous 48 states in your eBay auctions? Or, add a surcharge for Hawaii and Puerto Rico? Just curious. Can't complain about the shipping cost considering the profit I made. (I've put exclusions in my listings in the past, but forgot all about doing so this time.)

    Also can't complain now that I found out how cheap shipping is for LEGOS from amazon.uk :-) Again, I'm not complaining, just caught off guard.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ eBay has the ability to let you put a surcharge in for shipping to AK/HI/PR

    I do on the big stuff, I don't bother on the small stuff.

    As for Amazon.co.uk shipping, why is that a surprise? Amazon gets incrediable deals on shipping. You'd be downright shocked if you saw what they would pay to ship the same #8265 set to Hawaii. :)
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    I just use calculated shipping on eBay and the regional variances get factored In automatically
    chrisdojo
  • legoprodslegoprods SpainMember Posts: 445
    I was al shocked to read about FB going out soon. Could people check their store and post anything they know?

    I'm not after the secondary market for it, I just want one for myself, but still...

    Given what has been posted in the other thread, now I'm a bit alarmed. I've always trusted LFT's source over what other people said, and given it some room to buy it next year.
  • Steve_J_OMSteve_J_OM IrelandMember Posts: 982
    Ugh, that FB report has really put the cat amongst the pigeons. I've been eyeing up MMV, FB, and GE and trying to plan a way to get them that my budget will allow. I was going to go for MMV as a Christmas purchase with sources of @Legoboy and @LegoFanTexas saying no modulars were EOL'ing in the immediate term. Hopefully the store with the sign on the FB mistakenly put it up!
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    FB I really am not keen on. It's been completely over stocked up on, and it's not a patch on GG, GE etc. I wonder if people are chasing profits that won't exist on this set. GE I see in a different light, and can see this being rather pricey post end of line. Quite simply it is beautiful.
    Legoboy
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Time will tell on the modulars. But take note that GE has been out of stock at [email protected] since mid-August. Right now it's $244 on Amazon.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    It is... But keep in mind that is $197 after fees, and the customer can return it opened with no restocking fee.

    It sounds good, but you have to consider that point when reselling.
  • odueckodueck Member Posts: 48
    LegoFanTexas said:

    As for Amazon.co.uk shipping, why is that a surprise? Amazon gets incrediable deals on shipping. You'd be downright shocked if you saw what they would pay to ship the same #8265 set to Hawaii. :)

    It's a bit surprising because shipping from Amazon.co.uk seems a lot cheaper than it is from the other European Amazons.
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,835
    edited December 2012
    @richo - I'm the same.

    @Steve_J_OM - Have just mad a call and asked my guy for you. Nothing. There is no suggestion of any modular leaving us on any list available this year. However, he did say he was surprised and that "something had to go at some point."

    As an aside, I 'predict' the Death Star will see us though 2013 - certainly the first 6months but more likely the full year. Nothing concrete, as I'd be stating in the other thread otherwise, but just a prediction! ;o)
    Steve_J_OM
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    ^ the death star isn't exactly for the small hobby reseller (if indeed there is such a thing). I can hardly lift mine, it's not as if you can wheelbarrow it to the post office.
    Seriously though, I am looking forward to building my copy when I can assign a space somewhere.
  • andystarandystar Member Posts: 275
    @prevere My backorder GEs from [email protected] just shipped, so expect some stock to come back into the market before Xmas.
  • andystarandystar Member Posts: 275
    Actually GE is back in stock at [email protected] for order now.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Good to know. I had one on backorder. And hoping it'll be there for the next double points month. Or if Wal-Mart goes crazy again with a sale at $120.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    edited December 2012
    I would just like to bid a farewell to the 2260 Ice Dragon. I know it really has been retired for a few months (technically Nov 2011, but available through Jan.), but I finally cashed out my stock. My vote for surprise EOL set of the year. Thank you Ice Dragon!
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,287
    LegoFanTexas said:

    dragonhawk said:

    Marketing wise it is a brilliant move on TLG part. They added some extra push to move older stocks without lowering the price

    Yes, so long as it goesn't get abused...

    The sets marked retiring soon, must actually go away soon. If they take 1-2 months to retire, fine. If they end up sticking around for 6 months, the label becomes meaningless.
    Well so far there have been retiring soon sets that are in fact gone from LEGO's site. Does not stop retails from still having their stocks, but once something is gone from LEGO, and it is demand, usually the stores run out fairly quickly (see EN)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,287
    cloaked7 said:

    Bubble wrap, air bags, cabin pressure of planes. Interesting stuff to be sure. What about shipping to the great state of Hawaii? That may involve bubble wrap and will definitely involve a plane or two.

    I just had a person buy a big front end loader of mine #8265 and I just checked FedEx and it's going to cost $30.00 to ship it. And, I had shipping listed as $12. So, I guess I get to eat the $18 difference?

    Do you put anything about only shipping to the contiguous 48 states in your eBay auctions? Or, add a surcharge for Hawaii and Puerto Rico? Just curious. Can't complain about the shipping cost considering the profit I made. (I've put exclusions in my listings in the past, but forgot all about doing so this time.)

    Also can't complain now that I found out how cheap shipping is for LEGOS from amazon.uk :-) Again, I'm not complaining, just caught off guard.

    Thats why my shipping is either free and put the difference in the buy it now price. OR when I use a shipping calculator I use a postal code from Hawaii as a base and then put a note that shipping overages will be refunded. I got tired of eating overages and just decided it is easier to refund than eat unexpected costs
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    ^If you use calculated shipping, shouldn't it calculate the correct postage to Hawaii or Alaska for you?
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited December 2012
    Yup. I just did a flat rate. For the 48 states I was in the ball park.

    I think I will add the shipping cost calculator to my auctions on larger items. Probably should have been doing that all along. I will just have to weigh the item ahead of time, add a couple of lbs for the box and see how that goes.

    I make extra on shipping on some items, lose a bit on others, and it generally evens out. But, the Hawaii shipping cost was a shock. Oh well, lesson learned.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ Yes, he must have done "flat" rate. Calculated makes more sense otherwise you cost yourself or discourage people close to your area.
  • allmybricksallmybricks Member Posts: 156
    10219 MT dropped to $110 on amazon. Got to be one of the last chances to get this set under MSRP.... Been saying that for 4 weeks though
  • mressinmressin Lego City... erm LondonMember Posts: 843
    I heard a voice today which said:
    - FB retiring is plausible, but not confirmed
    - DS is expexted to continue throughout year
    - SSD might well retire before DS
    - release of Arkam Asylum in the UK moved forward, expected ca. 18 December
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Wonder how long the availability of MT, MMV and DA (and other biggies) will last on Amazon once [email protected] is officially sold out. Does that usually trigger a wave of fast sales, or does past history suggest we get about a 2-week warning to get our wallets in order?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    mressin said:

    I heard a voice today which said:
    - FB retiring is plausible, but not confirmed

    I wouldn't want to bet on this one at this point, anything is possible.

    But it *should be going out*. Consider that we're getting another modular in Spring 2013, how many will they have out at once? At some point they are stealing sales from each other.

    That being said, I was told very clearly by someone I trust that it will be here for another year, that Sep/Oct 2013 is when to expect it to go away.
    mressin said:

    - DS is expexted to continue throughout year

    I was also told this, another year, at least.
    mressin said:

    - SSD might well retire before DS

    I believe it, SSD is just not selling very well.

    We might all be surprised and see it go away this year. Amazon.com has it for $319, which is a good deal for anyone who hasn't gotten it yet.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    prevere said:

    Wonder how long the availability of MT, MMV and DA (and other biggies) will last on Amazon once [email protected] is officially sold out. Does that usually trigger a wave of fast sales, or does past history suggest we get about a 2-week warning to get our wallets in order?

    Because of the purchase limits at Amazon (2 per customer per week), it is hard for resellers to just clean out Amazon if they have hundreds or thousands in stock.

    That being said, if you haven't gotten one or more of those now, I wouldn't wait another two weeks.
  • 2011Legomaniac2011Legomaniac Member Posts: 32
    Sold my last IF last week. I sold about 20 IF this past month. I'm flipped those 20 IF into 50 DA, thx to the TRU sale last week. I was able to get 50 DA for a little more than 6K, which was what I sold my 20 IF for....figured the 50 DA would be worth a lot more that 20 IF a year or 2 from now. I'm also in the middle of cashing out my Burrows to trade into DA. I'm up to 75 DA right now. Trying to reach 100 before they are all sold out. =) This set is the easiest no-brainer....I'm almost certain I will double my investment in this set by just next Christmas! Do you guys/gals think that was a good move?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ The only problem with DA is that being the "easiest no-brainer" means that everyone and their brother has done it.

    I've got a few, but I'm sure other sellers have hundreds, if not thousands of them.

    It only takes 1 or 2 large sellers having a large stock, to depress the prices for awhile. Not that they'll sell cheap, but they can hold prices at $199 for a long time.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    A good move? You're definitely "pot committed" to DA.

    This next wave of retirements will be interesting, because it definitely represents a challenge if the market can handle the uptick in resellers stocking up on said sets for aftermarket profit and glory.
    madforLEGO
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    Diagon Alley is a nice set but I just can't pull the trigger on it. On the other hand, Imperial Flagship and MMV were both "must haves" for me early on. What does that mean? I'm thinking that DA won't do as well as some are thinking. My take is this: Harry Potter's audience is dwindling. The books and films are over. There will always be new fans, but nothing like it was ten years ago when even my grandmother (RIP) read the books. IF and MMV are both classic sets in the sense they don't have pop culture holding them back. This is why these sets along with the modulars will hold their value long term and are better investments IMO.
    itsnotme
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited December 2012
    ^ Yup, I agree. A set with a movie, cartoon, book tie-in is boosted while the tie-in is popular and will out perform a generic set. But, in the long term a generic set that is popular (IF, EN, MMV) will out perform the tie-in set when the tie-in aspect is no longer popular. Some sets are timeless, some a flash in the pan.

    Course DA has a lot of attributes of a generic set. It would fit right in with the LOTR or Hobbit sets, I think. Maybe it's a hybrid set?
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