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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • Penkid11Penkid11 Member Posts: 789
    ^Probably one last hurrah before the final wave hits stores.
  • LegobrandonCPLegobrandonCP CanadaMember Posts: 1,918
    I didn't notice the shuttle expedition was ELO'd already. Guess I'll have to ask for that set for Christmas this year. I've been wanting to add the PS to my modular collection but I guess that could wait.
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 3,117
    Pitfall69 said:

    ^First I'm not talking about parts. Second, there is a thread solely for the purpose of making fun of ridiculous auctions and pointing out obvious fraud. If an EBay seller is selling a Death Star for $199.99...I would steer clear from that auction. I wish you good luck in purchasing from these type of people.

    There are still genuine sellers undercutting TLG for currently available stuff. I bought 12 sets with 78% off RRP and sold them at 40% off RRP on ebay. They were well received, everyone got a bargain (except little Timmy who could've had 1 of the 12 sets I bought) and sold quickly. Certain sets at certain prices would raise an eyebrow on ebay, but you check out their feedback and make sure it relates to what they are selling currently, rather than for a short term burst of low value items
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    But it comes down to opportunity cost at some point. Say you can get 150 now or 200 a year from now. The question becomes could you reinvest that 150 in something else that brings in 250 or 300 a year from now ? Most likely yes
  • flyingpigflyingpig Member Posts: 119
    Hmm. #4184 Black Pearl still available at target for RRP $99. Looks like leftover stock from the $75 Black Friday doorbuster. Still a good buy at RRP?
  • mressinmressin Lego City... erm LondonMember Posts: 843
    edited December 2012
    y2josh said:

    [...] the only way a reseller could even moderately harm TLG is if they were offering up sets currently still available at a significantly lower price. Otherwise, the reseller is offering a product the company no longer provides, and isn't taking business away from LEGO.

    Personally I like resellers. And of course I can't say I know what's going on in the heads of people at Lego. But there is a way of viewing reselling which gives Lego a strong reason to dislike it. It takes away a part of the cake which Lego could have for themselves:

    There is a total amount of money which is spent on Lego every year by all the Lego buyers in the world (the "cake"). The profit resellers make (let's call it "the lost slice" of the cake) naturally doesn't go to Lego.

    Now one might say that these are mostly EOL or used sets, so this part of the cake would always be out of reach for Lego. And there is a point: A part of those who spend copious amounts of money to get an out-of-production set from a reseller (let's say a UCS MF), would not spend any of that money on Lego otherwise.

    But the remaining part of those who spend copious amounts of money on an out-of-production set would instead spend it on other, in-production sets. And that's Lego's potential share of the "lost slice".

    I'm not saying that's the only way to see it. But I believe there is a point. Reselling decreases Lego's share of the total amount of money people are spending on Lego.
  • berniebondberniebond AustriaMember Posts: 137
    I think there's a consent that 2507 Fire Temple will do well. But as i am thinking about buying a few more at 85€ each, i asked myself just how good it will do, for example compared to#9450? My main concern is that is has not one exclusive minifigure...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Hardrada said:

    Okay, but then the logical thing would be imposing buying limits on desirable sets, not charging sales tax on someone who is exempt from it. Or am I thinking wrong?

    That is correct, the store does impose purchase limits for just that reason.

    In this case, my local store limits most sets to 5 per item. So 5 of this and 5 of that. There are a few items, like UCS R2D2 and Jabba's Palace that the limit is 2, because of popular demand.

    I have no problem with that, the store is just looking out for all their customers.
  • legoprodslegoprods SpainMember Posts: 445

    I think there's a consent that 2507 Fire Temple will do well. But as i am thinking about buying a few more at 85€ each, i asked myself just how good it will do, for example compared to#9450? My main concern is that is has not one exclusive minifigure...

    Well, my own experience here: I bought a couple Fire Temples at 58€ shipping included, and I haven't sold one yet. I bought two days ago 12 9450's at 64€ each shipped. I've already sold six of those at 85€ + shipping...

    I'm keeping the rest for now, as it should go up higher, but I always like to get some cash flow when I get so many of them. (Yes, for me, 12 sets is many :) )

  • mountebankmountebank Member Posts: 1,237
    I get the impression that the US and European secondary markets for Ninjago are very different.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited December 2012
    I went to the Frisco, TX store to pick up a couple of the #3300014, which they had in stock on Monday. They are a great addition to the WV theme. Anyway, I went in on Tuesday to grab one more and the place was a zoo (children's monthly build). So I decided to go back last night and they were all gone - @LFT ? . I do think this set will do well as a smaller set in the long haul. Who knows...they may even bring it back next hear. It's a nice set...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    @Farmer_John - I bought 5 from the store, they had plenty left... They must have had either demand from somewhere, or 10 other resellers came in after I posted. :)

    If you'd like a few, you're welcome to them, I had an overseas buyer that fell through on my copies. Otherwise, I'll hold them until next year.

    If anyone would like one, $20 including shipping in a bubble envelope, and it is all yours. Won't be mint because of the bubble envelope.
  • mressinmressin Lego City... erm LondonMember Posts: 843
    @LegoFanTexas, @Farmer_John just that I get this right: you can now buy #3300014 directly, without the $50 spend?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ Our local LEGO store had them for sale for $14.99 this past week, but they are now sold out.

    I was offering one shipped for $20 to anyone who still wanted one.
  • SpaceCakeSpaceCake Member Posts: 291

    I get the impression that the US and European secondary markets for Ninjago are very different.

    Undisputed!

  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    The shuttle set should do well. For a 100xx series item - it coasted under the radar for most of it's life. It was available at 20% with frequency. Good part count too - with lots of useful white parts.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,010

    So I decided to go back last night and they were all gone - @LFT ? . I do think this set will do well as a smaller set in the long haul. Who knows...they may even bring it back next hear. It's a nice set...

    I hope not, I'd prefer something new. Plus the box says 2012.


  • jpczjpcz Member Posts: 95
    How long was 10213 (I believe that's the number) before it was taken down and replaced by the 10231? Does that issue effect the resell value for both of them as 10231 makes its exit? I had no idea about the difference until the other day when I took mine apart and realized I had the 10213 and came here to see that mostly the 10231 gets discussed
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,010
    ^ A year or so, according to brickset. 14 Jun 10 - 21 Jul 11.
  • kim43235kim43235 Member Posts: 165
    I'm surprised to see most of Friends line are out of stock at [email protected] at the moment. Even the newer ones are expected to ship mid Dec or Jan.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Shuttle: The change was made because of stability issues with the base structure I think. Personally, only the really crazy Lego perfectionist needs both. I don't think you'll see much difference between the two in the afterlife.
  • khmellymelkhmellymel United KingdomMember Posts: 1,304
    I just have to say, I think I learned more about accounting in this thread than I did in my accounting class this semester...
    Dougout
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    8098 (Clone Turbo) is performing nicely in the $175-$180 range having only retired this summer. Prices will surely drop a little after Dec, but likely to be $200+ next year at this time.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    kim43235 said:

    I'm surprised to see most of Friends line are out of stock at [email protected] at the moment. Even the newer ones are expected to ship mid Dec or Jan.

    Friends is selling extremely well. I know it gets dumped on here a lot, but the fact is, it holds 5+ spots in the top 25 LEGO seller list at Amazon all the time, and at full MSRP.

    I have no doubt they will continue to sell. What I do not know is if they'll sell above MSRP very well.

    For example, when #3187 Butterfly Beauty Shop retires and gets replaced by #41007 Heartlake Pet Salon, will the beauty shop continue to sell above MSRP, or will parents just buy the Pet Salon and ignore the retired sets?

    Since Friends is heavily aimed at young girls and not adult collectors and since the 2013 sets are just rearrangements for the 2012 sets (similar part counts, similar sets with new themes), will anyone care about the 2012 sets?

    Maybe, maybe not. I've taken a flyer on them and bought up some just in case they go crazy, but I haven't invested heavy in them since it is quite possible that Friends turns out like City, a few sets do well but most just never go anywhere.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,071
    prevere said:

    8098 (Clone Turbo) is performing nicely in the $175-$180 range having only retired this summer. Prices will surely drop a little after Dec, but likely to be $200+ next year at this time.

    $110 on bricklink.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    edited December 2012

    prevere said:

    8098 (Clone Turbo) is performing nicely in the $175-$180 range having only retired this summer. Prices will surely drop a little after Dec, but likely to be $200+ next year at this time.

    $110 on bricklink.

    Almost worth getting but with shipping iffy. And quantities are limited.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    I just have to say, I think I learned more about accounting in this thread than I did in my accounting class this semester...

    Years ago, the best $1,000 I ever spent was here:

    http://www.soccermomcpa.com/

    I was able to get a CPA to come into my office and spent 20 hours with me over a two weeks period cleaning up my company's books. At $50 an hour, that was a steal!

    Half of that time was actually fixing the huge numbers of mistakes I had been making doing my own bookkeeping. The other half was giving me an education in how to do accounting properly.

    Thanks to modern accounting software, you only have to make a single entry, but the truth is, behind the scenes it is doing double-entry accounting, keeping the balance sheet in line.

    Cheaper than college and much more useful in the real world. :)
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633

    If anyone would like one, $20 including shipping in a bubble envelope, and it is all yours. Won't be mint because of the bubble envelope.

    This is NOT a criticism on @LegoFanTexas or others. I genuinely want to know the answer. Are your customers in general ok with getting the smaller sets shipped in bubble wrapped envelopes ?
    The few things I sold were always shipped in boxes (even the Ninjago spinners). The only things shipped in bubble envelopes are the polybags. Since I appreciate mint boxes, I thought most people would like their LEGO boxes arrive in mint conditions as well. However, if it is acceptable in general to ship smaller sets in bubble wrapped envelopes, that would make shipping much easier for me.

    Related to that, what is the maximum box size considered acceptable for mailing in bubble envelopes ? I once received a 9441 Kai's Blade Cycle in bubble envelope from TRU. The box was full of dents and fold marks. Since it was for a gift, it got promptly exchanged at TRU store. That was a hassle for an otherwise acceptable online experience.
  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439

    Since I appreciate mint boxes, I thought most people would like their LEGO boxes arrive in mint conditions as well. However, if it is acceptable in general to ship smaller sets in bubble wrapped envelopes, that would make shipping much easier for me.

    Related to that, what is the maximum box size considered acceptable for mailing in bubble envelopes ?

    It's not acceptable at any size unless the buyer requests it to save on shipping. It's similar to deboxing a set for cheaper shipping.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    I shipped all of my Lloyds in a bubble wrap envelope. I did rubber band a cardboard piece to the back (the same size as the Lloyd cardboard) to minimize it getting bent. I have gotten no complaints and positive feedback on the Lloyds, so I guess they made it OK. Also, it was free shipping, so maybe people relate that with low budget mailing? Cost me about $3.00 each to mail them that way. So, not only cheaper, but a lot quicker and easier than a box.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    edited December 2012
    Yes, I have shipped all my Ninjago spinners (probably 60 or more in total) since day one in bubble mailers. I pre-wrapped them in bubble wrap first. I have always received positive feedback from them. Around $2 to ship that way. HF sets in the plastic containers I ship the same way pre-wrapped. Otherwise anything in a box, obviously gets shipped in a box. If my customers find it acceptable and are pleased, I have no problem doing it. However, as I said, anything in a box should always be securely packaged in a box. One of my biggest peeves is receiving a set wrapped in brown paper or poorly packaged.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    edited December 2012
    @hardrada
    Deboxing a set for cheaper shipping is unacceptable? Apparently those who buy them don't think so.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    If anyone would like one, $20 including shipping in a bubble envelope, and it is all yours. Won't be mint because of the bubble envelope.

    This is NOT a criticism on @LegoFanTexas or others. I genuinely want to know the answer. Are your customers in general ok with getting the smaller sets shipped in bubble wrapped envelopes?
    I would not do it for any boxed set without the customer knowing about it first.

    I do ship Ninjago spinners in bubble envelopes (even the $30 ones), and I have yet to receive a single complaint about it.

    For $25, I'd be happy to ship one in a box and it should arrive in perfect condition. I was just offering the $20 price as a favor to save someone money, if they were just going to open it and throw the box away.
  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439
    FatMatt said:

    Deboxing a set for cheaper shipping is unacceptable? Apparently those who buy them don't think so.

    If this is an answer to my post then you misunderstood. Of course it's acceptable as long as the buyer requests it or agrees to it. Same with shipping a boxed set in a bubble mailer.

  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    edited December 2012
    ^Understood. I misunderstood your statement:) <(smiley makes it all better)
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    cloaked7 said:

    I shipped all of my Lloyds in a bubble wrap envelope. I did rubber band a cardboard piece to the back (the same size as the Lloyd cardboard) to minimize it getting bent. I have gotten no complaints and positive feedback on the Lloyds, so I guess they made it OK. Also, it was free shipping, so maybe people relate that with low budget mailing? Cost me about $3.00 each to mail them that way. So, not only cheaper, but a lot quicker and easier than a box.

    I shipped about 50 LLoyds this way - not a single complaint. what we have to remember is most people buying this stuff on ebay, amazon, etc are going to open it and throw away the packaging. they honestly don't care about the box, as long as it arrives reasonably intact. that said, I ship boxes in boxes, even small ones like the holiday set. it cost more for me (and the buyer), but i figure it reduces the likelihood of complaint

  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    ^Agreed, you are asking for problems if you don't use a box with boxed sets.
  • thehockeyboythehockeyboy Member Posts: 97
    Personally, I ship all Legos in boxes (especially since I primarily use USPS). I find that charging the $5+ for Priority and using a box is significantly better than charging $3 for First Class. A little quicker, more reliable, and nicer packaging for only $2 more... most buyers I've dealt with prefer this.
  • kim43235kim43235 Member Posts: 165
    I guess I was too brave but I shipped all my Lloyds with non-bubble envelopes with zero padding even for international shipments and never heard of complaints but praise. Lloyd is not a box set and it's got it's own plastic thingy to protect itself. Also this is for kids anyway. As long as content is protected, it should be good.

    For box sets though, I never ship them without carton box with lots of padding. No bubble envelope used.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Oh shipping and padding. Just me, but I hate those air packs. If I use them it is only to pad the sides. I pop most air packs and recycle them. I usually just crumble up newspaper pages for padding. If the item is $350+ I will usually reinforce the corners of the cardboard box and maybe double layer the top and bottom. I figure someone paying that much should get primo packaging.

    I guess most of us package a lot different (better) than companies. They are all about speed. Not me. I box all of my sets like I'm shipping them to myself.
    chrisdojo
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ Something to consider. The air packs are virtually weightless, while newspaper adds considerable weight to the box which obviously means greater shipping costs. Sometimes it doesn't bump it up to the next pound, but many times it does. Either way there is a time factor in determining.

    As far as double layering a box, I've never found it necessary in all my years -- falcons being that exception but they already come that way.
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    edited December 2012
    I definately will ship the spinners in bubble envelope going forward. Putting them in boxes is quite a hassle since most boxes are too big for them.

    ^ I actually like the air packs as long as they are still linked together. For the bigger LEGO boxes, I usually have a layer of air bags around the box, on the top, and bottom. Since they are essentially weightless, they are especially good when the weight of the package is very close to the next pound
  • BrickbaseBrickbase Member Posts: 100
    edited December 2012
    You could also use shredded printing paper as padding, it doesn't add much in weight, but offers good protection.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    All good points. I guess air bags are useful if they aren't packed in. Although they are near zero in weight they have no give. (A flexible air bag would be perfect! Someone needs to patent that. he he) So, if they are packed tightly and the box is crushed the LEGO set is crushed too. I've been on the receiving end of that several times.
  • cbaker1974cbaker1974 Member Posts: 150
    cloaked7 said:

    (A flexible air bag would be perfect! Someone needs to patent that. he he)

    Isn't that called bubblewrap? :)

    I also always box Lego in set boxes, everything else small in bubble mailers. I buy appropriately-sized boxes from uline and then 1 or 2 layers of bubblewrap (a seller on ebay sells cool blue biodegradable bubblewrap in bulk). So far 300+ items sent this year with only 1 report of damage (box crushed in a way that nothing would have survived).

  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ Should have used 'elastic' instead of 'flexible' I suppose. Yup, bubble wrap is flexible. Didn't explain myself very well. I had in mind an air bag that would not pop when you squeezed it. Well, as long as it could stretch outward somewhere. It would be stretchy and elastic enough to contour to it's surroundings when compressed and bounce back when not. Course, I'm probably too picky. :-)
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    edited December 2012
    The key with air packets is to not stuff the box to capacity, as that causes creasing to the sets when pressure is applied to the package. I leave a little room for the flexing of the shipping box. Learned from trial and error.
    dragonhawk
  • pcironepcirone Long Island, NYMember Posts: 346
    cloaked7 said:

    ^ Should have used 'elastic' instead of 'flexible' I suppose. Yup, bubble wrap is flexible. Didn't explain myself very well. I had in mind an air bag that would not pop when you squeezed it. Well, as long as it could stretch outward somewhere. It would be stretchy and elastic enough to contour to it's surroundings when compressed and bounce back when not. Course, I'm probably too picky. :-)

    You are trying to invent foam..
    Bandit
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    One thing to remember also, air bags expand and compress based on altitude, so if you're shipping from sea level to 6,000 feet, take that into account.
  • mressinmressin Lego City... erm LondonMember Posts: 843
    ^ or Air Mail. Jets usually reduce cabin pressure to something equalling 2500 m or so.
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