Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

Pitfall69

^You need to find moms that are tired of stepping on Lego pieces. Those are the best deals to be had :)

Pitfall69

Back on Topic. Winter Village Bakery seems to be sold out online everywhere [US] at RRP. The whole Winter Village Series is a great investment. I find it going along the same lines as the Modular Buildings...just not as expensive.

richo

^ not sure on that, I can see your thinking, but the Toy Shop is still pretty easy to obtain for not much over rrp here in the uk. Maybe the baker will do better...

sadowsk1

@Sharifa

I don't see the harm in starting small. That's what I had to do when I didn't have much to invest and you eventually work your way up if you do a little research here and there and work your way into the bigger sets. It takes time but that's why it's a fun hobby. It's hard to buy a lot of the larger sets and even now there are things that my household needs more than wonderful wonderful Lego. If you are looking into investing my one bit of advice is buy the sets you know you want to keep ultimately if you don't have a large amount of discretionary income. If all else fails you still have things you'd want to keep for yourself. I always say it when it comes to investing and I'm sure I sound like a broken record but for a small time investor I stick to it.

forumreader

richo said:

^ not sure on that, I can see your thinking, but the Toy Shop is still pretty easy to obtain for not much over rrp here in the uk. Maybe the baker will do better...

I'm on my phone, so I can't research too much, but the Toy Shop has been going for over 2x RRP in the US lately, IIRC.

Pitfall69

Interesting. I sold a copy of the Toy Shop for 2.5x RRP about a month ago. The Bakery is going for 2x RRP right now, but I'm sure interest will wane after the holidays.

richo

I prefer the bakery, but can't put my finger on why. I ended up parting out my toy shop...

kim43235

Sharifa said:

dougts- Thank you for the advice. I can see your point about smaller sets. It is true I am rather handicapped on the money front, but I do have tons of time, and have been researching constantly in the past few weeks. Hopefully something will come of it in time.

I'm also new to Lego reselling and this forum but would like to throw some ideas to consider.

Personally I would like to discourage to resell Legos if you are on low budget. It's very hard to make 100% profit (double the money) within a short period of time except some items such as Minecraft, Lloyd ZX, etc. If you really want to do Legos then garage sale is your best bet. I've missed couple of great Lego deals from garage sale. Craigslist is also good but they seem overpriced than garage sale in general. So search legos for garage sale next year. You should be able to find some good deals.

I would consider resell any other used goods from goodwill or thrift shops. Not all thrift stores are equal. Find stores that offer you great price and has fast turnover on stocks. You should be able to find Legos at goodwill also not often. I visit goodwill near my work during lunch hour. I find at least one or two legos per month and sometimes they are bargain. I posted on 'brag' thread but I scored 99% complete tantinve iv at $2. But it's hard to come by and resellers like myself are eyeing on them. It's really about timing.

If you think outside of Lego you should be able to find some good deals on any used goods. That's what I started to do middle of this year. I've sold about 30 items this year that I acquired from goodwill and average return is 1000% netting about $600 this year alone. This sale doesn't include any legos. I kept them for myself or sell later. I've sold antiques, dishes, toys, golf case, shoes, etc. Ebay smartphone app definitely helps. Before you buy anything, search completed item on ebay to see how much they are sold on ebay. Key is to find a *good* store. You will find good stuffs from there.

Off topic but important. Also note to myself. I invested far more than I ever thought for this year. I'm out of space in my basement right now. It's hard to find time to research/package/clean/organize/assemble/etc with a two year old kid. My wife's patience went over the limit. I resell for extra money but it's kind of fun doing it. But you also have to make balance among important things. I think relationship is far more important than extra money or fun for making money. I will try to reduce my investment on legos for next year. However, if you really need extra income and you have time and storage, go for it. If your spouse supports it then it's win win :)

prevere

kim43235 said:

Sharifa said:

dougts- Thank you for the advice. I can see your point about smaller sets. It is true I am rather handicapped on the money front, but I do have tons of time, and have been researching constantly in the past few weeks. Hopefully something will come of it in time.

Off topic but important. Also note to myself. I invested far more than I ever thought for this year. I'm out of space in my basement right now. It's hard to find time to research/package/clean/organize/assemble/etc with a two year old kid. My wife's patience went over the limit.I will try to reduce my investment on legos for next year.

I hear ya.

madforLEGO

Sharifa said:

If I'm lucky I'll have around $400 USD to spend, and I'm planning to buy two sets in the $100 range and an extra copy of each to set aside to sell later. (I sold some of my belongings and earned that amount, planning to use it to invest in Lego but my husband convinced me to spend it on more urgent and practical things. He promised he'd return the amount from his paycheck in time for after-Christmas, but I'm not keeping my hopes up.)

I would say MMV for 88 at Amazon, or Maersk train (which I believe can still be had on Amazon for 120 (unfortunately RRP).
Both should climb fairly well after the stock runs out.
Also if you can happen to catch large sets like the tower bridge and Imperial Shuttle on sale those would be good ones to look out for.
BUT Ill add that anything is speculation at this point, but I think larger is probably the better way to go (as long as you have the room anyway)

FatMatt

^Yes, but with TB you would want to assess when it is likely to go, especially for someone with limited funding. One of the best lessons I learned early on was timing, as I am still sitting on GE's, FB's, TB's, etc from over a year and a half ago. In short, a lot of money that could have been multiplied a couple times over had I been more prudent.

madforLEGO

@FatMatt: That is true, forgot that TB is not guaranteed to go any time soon.

I still think Maersk Train will climb fairly (fairly being about 50% ROI) quickly once supplies are gone, heck I think I saw them for 140-150 even though Amazon.com still has them.
BUT I guess you also have to keep in mind that eBay take about 20% from you in fees between it and Paypal

doriansdad

I would say with limited funding, short time frame, fees and taxes the endeavor would be a losing cause. In this business you need a decent size investment and time to sit on sets to see a good return (sometimes up to years).

prevere

The turnaround time from purchase to 2x or 3x of retail is definitely one of the biggest unknowns. If you commit to re-selling Lego sets (especially modulars, large sets), you need to commit to a minimum of 5 years.

mathew

MMV for $88 on Amazon is a great deal especially if you don't have to pay sales tax. You should be able to double your money within a year. You'll just have to hold out for the initial wave of resellers to deplinish stock.

Pacific493

If you only have a small amount of money and need to turn that into a profit in a short time frame, you are going to be taking a very risk regardless of which sets you buy. Although MMV should be a good bet given the price and number of parts in the set, it has undoubtedly been stockpiled in large quantities since it is an obvious choice and has been available for longer than it should have. Will it double or triple in value...sure, but it might take a few years. The trick is to buy the popular set that goes EOL earlier than expected, which is obviously a gamble in any given instance or find sets that are mispriced.

I will echo some of the earlier comments about looking to buy lots of used Lego off of Ebay or Craigslist. It takes a lot of effort to break unsorted lots of Lego down into individual sets for resale, but it is an easier way to make money than betting on future appreciation of sets that can be purchased new.

bri4jenn

@FattMatt Thanks for the heads up on Winter Village Bakery #10216. I had the last one shipped to my house from the Orlando Lego Store. Crisis averted. I am amazed it did not stay in stock till Christmas.

cloaked7

I would also suggest for a reseller that they don't put all their eggs in one basket. Which is tough with limited funds. As has been pointed out, some of the sets are a relatively sure bet to increase in price. But, it's also been mentioned, when and how much is often a big question mark.

Sure, in hindsight we wish we had bought nothing but the home run set and bought none of those that didn't do as well, but none of us know exactly what the home run sets are. So, I have modulars, Technics, IS's, MMV's, VW vans, shuttles, trains, etc. On yeah, and some Lloyds and Minecrafts. :-) A hodge podge if you will. :-)

Oh yeah, and the fees. eBay and PayPal fees only go one way, up. Back in the day they were 7-8%. And, to get lower fees you must have a return policy and 1 day shipping. As someone mentioned, one day I could see eBay requiring free shipping too in order to get fee discounts.

richo

Has anybody got a lot of bakery's in the oven, so to speak? I only have one, but there again I am not a reseller. I just never saw this set discussed much, so wonder if it's retired rather more abruptly than anticipated.

kim43235

It seems that #9489 has been out of stock but #9488 is in stock. I'm sure it's holiday shortage thing but is there anything special about #9489? Will it be a good choice for short squeeze?

FatMatt

There is also a barrage of medium and smaller sets that yield a great roi, yet choosing the right ones is key, otherwise you could be stuck sitting on a stockpile for a couple years only to get your money back. I know this has been said before. It all comes down to, as stated many times, research and more research, intuitiveness, and having the money to take that risk. That is why it is not for everyone. In no way is it a get-rich-quick scheme. It is not always easy, and it can be very stressful at times, or all the time. "Oh, why did I not buy more of that and less of this" or "Crap, I missed out on another deal" or "Why did I not wait a little longer to unload" etc etc:) Sometimes the most obvious choice is winner, and sometimes it isn't. I know what I said here is a rehash of what has been said in many different ways throughout this thread, but it bares repeating.

FatMatt

"bakery's in the oven" :)

madforLEGO

Free shipping I do not have much of an issue with. I simply list an item as buy it now, and increase appropriately to cover shipping, it slows down purchases, but I find that with Free shipping no one can leave you less than 5 stars on the DSRs for Shipping costs, less than 5 stars is really frustrating when people do not understand how much something costs to ship sometimes. Same with getting the item shipped (or is it marking as shipped) means no less than 5 stars for the DSR for shipping time.
Now free shipping can hurt you when the item is an auction though.
Actually DSRs is ridiculous because it boils down to someones opinion and not facts in many cases.

The really big issue I do have though is the return having to be mandatory for all (or is it most) listings to get the 20%. I loathe that, especially with the fraud that can occur with sealed toy boxes now a days.
I will never offer a return as something standard, If something occurs and someone contacts me I will try to sort out the issue. If eBay forces the issue and makes in mandatory for all sales, I'll simply move to Bricklink as a main place to sell, which can again slow things down, but it is not worth it if eBay starts mandating it for anything listed.

Right now I just hope I have enough cash on hand for the LEGO Christmas sale, if there is one this year...

FatMatt

^If you play ball in their court, you play by their rules. That said, I do not agree with their changing of policies, but I have reluctantly adhered to them because it is in my best interest. I'm sure there will come a point I will look for other avenues.

y2josh

^Part of the problem with eBay is I think they're actively trying to weed out the small sellers, as they continually implement measures that can only harm the 'mom and pop' shops, but really have no adverse effect on large businesses. I think eBay wishes it were direct competition with Amazon, and I just can't see that working.

As to the fees, it's worth noting that once you get over $50 on your sale, the fees are significantly lower. For that reason alone, especially for a smaller reseller, the larger sets are going to usually wind up being a much better investment.

FatMatt

One question I have for those who use Bricklink: I have been toying with the idea. I know that parts can be slow sellers, but do those of you who sell sealed sets at the current "going rates" see steady sales? By steady I guess I mean comparative to ebay. I would assume they are significantly slower given that your average mom/dad don't go shopping for their child on Bricklink.

prevere

Bricklink has 233,000 users registered.
eBay has 480 million users globally.

That about covers it.

stegmanco

What about selling on Amazon seems as if EOL sets are way jacked up on Amazon compared to eBay, is the turnaround better on Amazon or eBay? If Amazon takes more of a cut but you can pump up the price of the set is it still a better deal? Also Amazon seems like your buying from a company not a untrustworthy guy out of his basement. Any thoughts on selling on Amazon vs eBay?

Pacific493

FatMatt said:

One question I have for those who use Bricklink: I have been toying with the idea. I know that parts can be slow sellers, but do those of you who sell sealed sets at the current "going rates" see steady sales? By steady I guess I mean comparative to ebay. I would assume they are significantly slower given that your average mom/dad don't go shopping for their child on Bricklink.

No. In my experience, sales on BL are incredibly slow and completely hit or miss. There seem to be fewer people looking to buy individual sets. Ebay is better, particular for used sets.

doriansdad

y2josh said:

think eBay wishes it were direct competition with Amazon, and I just can't see that working.

This is precisely their goal. They want to be first choice in consumers' minds for online shopping. They will be forcing the Zappos business model on all sellers eventually, and they are even toying with the idea of forcing sellers to use their own contracted shipping service for international shipments. Ebay has 1-2 years left before it is time to head for the exits. I won't waste my time with Bricklink...I'll just invest somewhere else and keep a handful of sets around to move or trade on craigslist. In the end Amazon is going to win this war handily.

chrisdojo

@Sharifa
If you do end up going the small set resale route, be careful on how much gas you're burning when going to acquire sets. That is a hidden cost that many small resellers forget about. It might be easier to get a 2nd (part time) job if you're just looking to acquire a few larger sets for your personal collection.

madforLEGO

^--- That's why you avoid B&M stores altogether IMO. Rely on online sites that have free shipping. Plus you also have a great chance to avoid those messing with box seals.
But if you are going to get knit-picky about gas then you also have to factor in gas to the Post office, gas for shipping supplies, etc etc.
Not really a big deal, unless you live in the sticks IMO.

UKtsumi

stegmanco said:

What about selling on Amazon seems as if EOL sets are way jacked up on Amazon compared to eBay, is the turnaround better on Amazon or eBay? If Amazon takes more of a cut but you can pump up the price of the set is it still a better deal? Also Amazon seems like your buying from a company not a untrustworthy guy out of his basement. Any thoughts on selling on Amazon vs eBay?

for private sellers:
amazon take a huge 20%... and they dictate the postage charge.

for example;
you buy FB RRP £99, ----- you sell for £199 + £4.62 p/p on Amazon . (your costs are £40 fees + £13 boxed post)
you end up with approx £150..
but, if you sell at £150 you end up with £111.!

and you'll be competing with the big boys, and have to adhere to amazons return policies!

prevere

And a recent poll showed that 1 in 5 Internet users visited Amazon in the past year. So that crushes eBay #s. Amazon beats eBay all day long.

But from a casual "mom and pop" seller perspective - eBay is fast and easy place to sell. Amazon is generally more for professionals. LFT has commented a lot on this.

I'm taking a guess that most of us here sell on eBay and not on Amazon.

FatMatt

chrisdojo made a valid point. I do not think he is being knit-picky. That is something I always factor into a purchase, whether it be hitting up clearance aisles or driving an hour away for a Craigslist lot. Time, fuel, ect are all hidden costs.

morezone

Amazon's return policies are simple. You have to pretty much take anything back for whatever reason which means that you have to factor in postage and used stock losses into your business.
The best bit! Once a customer authorsies a return they have around 30 days to return the item back to you.

dragonhawk

y2josh said:

As to the fees, it's worth noting that once you get over $50 on your sale, the fees are significantly lower. For that reason alone, especially for a smaller reseller, the larger sets are going to usually wind up being a much better investment.

This of course is referring to Fixed Price style listings. For auction style listings, the final value fee is consistently the same percentage (currently at 9%). Ebay waives the insertion fee (NOT final value fee) for the first 50 auction style listings per month. Anyone starting out on eBay should start with Auction style per the lower costs (imho) to get the hang of it

madforLEGO said:

The really big issue I do have though is the return having to be mandatory for all (or is it most) listings to get the 20%.

Remember, the 20% discount is off the final value fees minus shipping, which is not that significant in most cases. For example, an auction style listing with free shipping sold for $100 will incur $9 fee (9%). Once the 20% Top Rated Seller discounts is applied, you are saving a whopping $1.80 ($9 * 20%). You need to decide whether the saving is worth it for the minimum 14 days return policy. Also, this discount is only available to the Top Rate Sellers, which is a different discussion topic altogether.

ETA: The above information is mostly for the benefit of the newer sellers as they are of course obvious to the veteran sellers

chrisdojo

madforLEGO said:

^--- That's why you avoid B&M stores altogether IMO. Rely on online sites that have free shipping. Plus you also have a great chance to avoid those messing with box seals.
But if you are going to get knit-picky about gas then you also have to factor in gas to the Post office, gas for shipping supplies, etc etc.
Not really a big deal, unless you live in the sticks IMO.

I was more pointing to the fact that if @Sharifa is going to start small, profits will be small which gas can eat up very quickly if not wise.

madforLEGO

^-- that is true I guess. I just usually avoid B&M stores and Craigslist altogether. I used to run all over to find deals, but it is just not worth it anymore IMO.. Too many other AFOLs and people who have bought into 'making millions on eBay' in my area apparently, because every Walmart and Target was usually cleared out long before I got there. Not to mention do you really know what is in that clearance'd box at Walmart? I know that most should be fine, but in my opinion it is not worth it even finding one tampered box. I use eBay for most used lots and usually still manage to find a decent find on LEGO lots there (Not easy to do mind you and I usually stumble upon them and they usually do not have the profit they used to)
To each there own, but I would say watch Amazon.com more often that naught if you want a good deal on LEGO sets (as long as it is Amazon selling them, and not a third party on Amazon... usually)
And Occasionally Walmart and Target when they have deals up, but usually nothing beat Amazon and they will sometimes price match as well. Plus the free shipping as long as it is free shipping I should say online deals are good.

y2josh

doriansdad said:

y2josh said:

think eBay wishes it were direct competition with Amazon, and I just can't see that working.

This is precisely their goal. They want to be first choice in consumers' minds for online shopping. They will be forcing the Zappos business model on all sellers eventually, and they are even toying with the idea of forcing sellers to use their own contracted shipping service for international shipments. Ebay has 1-2 years left before it is time to head for the exits. I won't waste my time with Bricklink...I'll just invest somewhere else and keep a handful of sets around to move or trade on craigslist. In the end Amazon is going to win this war handily.

A) What's the Zappos business model?
B) I can only see these moves by eBay as being a road that leads directly to the implosion of their business. Although I really have no idea if it may actually be in their best interest to run off all the small sellers and deal only with the large businesses. Maybe that route is a lot more profitable than I think it is.

cloaked7

This is a bit of a tangent. Course, we're already on a bit of a tangent discussing eBay policies and fees. :-) A tangent from eBay to PayPal isn't too much I hope.

What about the IRS mandate for PayPal to send the IRS information on your transactions if they are over $20K or over 200 transactions? I've just sold on eBay as a hobby, but I think this decision may force me to file taxes on my PayPal money. I am going to fall into the over 200 category.

Any thoughts? Also, you may just send me an email instead of tying up this thread. This has definitely got my attention. Maybe it's gotten yours as well.

gmpirate

^ I believe its $20k and 200 transactions -- not "or".

FatMatt

^It is not either or. You must have $20K in sales AND 200 transactions.

EDIT Ah, beat me to it.

cloaked7

Thanks for the correction. As I say 'whew....' The difference one word makes. 'and'? 'or'? :-) I need to read the important stuff more closely. Note to self.

Did you say 'Don't stop.' or, 'Don't. Stop.'? :-)

stegmanco

Amazon's Refferal Fee is only 15% on Toy's. That's actually really close to PayPal 2.9% + eBay 9% = ~12% The markup on Amazon say from #4195 is $178 right now and on eBay they are going for $146 wich is just the last one I saw sell for. Seems like returns are the main reason to not go with Amazon as the reason can be one of many.

prevere

Sidetracking back on topic for a moment. I'm curious what's the consensus on Dynamic Duo EOL'ing. Launched in January 2012. Does it sell out after Xmas, mid-next year or after Xmas next year?

thehockeyboy

^ I sold a variety of stuff on amazon years ago and, as a private seller, it was significantly more frustrating than eBay. Not sure if things have changed but pretty much nothing was automated -- I'd have to ship via USPS.com which meant I'd have to email every individual buyer the shipment information. And since amazon set the price of shipping, I would have countless buyers complain of the shipping price which I had no control of.

Even though I was pulling in a significant amount every 2 weeks (amazon holds funds and disperses them like a paycheck), it was not worth the frustration.

cloaked7

And, about eBay wanting to be Amazon. They need to get in line behind... err... Walmart, Target, Sears.... :-) One would think that eBay would realize they can't compete with Amazon, ever. Not when eBay tacks on 15% + fees to pretty much all sellers, which the seller will need to tack on to the buyer. Amazon only tacks on fees to resellers, not on themselves. To eBay everyone is a reseller.

Personally I don't buy current, retail goods from eBay. I get closeouts, used, discontinued items, and collectibles on eBay. I still think of eBay as being an internet yard sale, and not much more. I think it would be a mistake for eBay to venture away from their core business model a lot. I mean, they have an on-line auction monopoly. They should be very pleased with that. But, not sure that they are.

dougts

^ great question. I have no idea, but I do think this is an obvious candidate for future winner. So obvious, it may not be a future winner at all...

prevere

^There is no true pleasing when you have stockholders and a stock price to maintain. :(