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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Polybags are an exception to the small set rule, but other than limited edition sets, large sets are the way to go for investment purposes.
  • FatMattFatMatt Member Posts: 502
    edited December 2012
    The time to sell the Holiday set was as soon as you got it. Given they will probably go up a little bit if you hold it till next year, but I doubt if they will increase before Christmas this year. I dumped all 20 of mine that I got immediately for $25-$30 a pop. The price now is only dropping on them, not that it will go much below $20, but my point is that their peak was when they were scarce. I believe there was a limited amount of them produced, and the fact that they fit in with the WV theme may result in a nice climb for future resale.
  • FatMattFatMatt Member Posts: 502
    As for QAR, if you can get $170-$180 for it right now, that is a pretty good short-term roi provided you bought them on discount. I have not sold any of mine yet, but they appear to be selling pretty well around that price most likely may climb a little more before Christmas. They will most likely continue to climb some after Christmas, but at a much slower pace, possibly not seeing changes in price for months, maybe even a slight decline due to less demand. So, it really depends on if you want to hold out for the long term for a larger profit or or flip them quick and reinvest the money.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    ^This

    That's really the question. If you have the storage and can have your money tied up up for some time, holding on to a set will probably yield you more money. If you have no storage or you don't want to have your money tied up for a year or two, flipping them quick is probably a good idea.
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited December 2012
    ^^I think that "when to sell" is very subjective and dependent on a variety of factors. In general, the price of a desirable set (which the QAR is) has historically increased with time. How much the price will increase probably depends on the total number of sets available. My opinion, of course, but I think once supply dies down a bit in six months to a year, you'll probably see the price of the QAR increase to at least double MSRP and maybe more. This is based partially on my experience with the Imperial Flagship #10210, though 10210 rose in price much faster than the QAR.

    However, the longer you hold a set, the more risk there is. In the case of the QAR, I think one risk is that Lego produces another desirable pirate ship within a year or so that would partially negate demand for the QAR. Also, as many people have mentioned previously, there is opportunity cost to holding onto a set. For instance, if you otherwise sold the QAR now, could your money work harder for you by investing in another set (say, the #8043 Motorized Excavator)?

    In summary, I think it's a personal choice on when to sell, which will vary for almost everyone. If you are are aware of current market conditions, upcoming sets and the amount of profit you want, I think you'll be in a good position to decide what profit is best for you. Or in the case of some sets, what is the minimum loss to accept lol.
  • sidersddsidersdd Member Posts: 2,432
    It's also a question of how much time you want to spend this holiday season listing, packing and shipping orders. Would you rather spend that time with family? I spent the last two years buying and selling like crazy. It's time consuming.

    Just like @pitfall69 points out, I have the storage space and the ability to coast on my inventory now (having self funded to a point where I'm comfortable now). I'm marking up prices on inventory and when they sell they sell. I'm no longer in a rush.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Anyone else hesitating over purchasing more IS's right now? I had been buying from Amazon every week (when I'm allocated) but when I was due to purchase more on Wednesday I passed. I had been very certain it was going, and maybe its from some doubtful posts, but I'm not as certain anymore.

    I have not seen them in stores in months (someone mentioned they were a Florida store). Walmart sold out, Target not, Amazon has them on sale for a long time now. Considering all the FB's, DS's and IS's I already have, I'm feeling a little tentative and cautious.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    emilewski said:

    Also with the 2012 Holiday gift set, the market is flooded right now as everyone just got their BF orders. If I wait too long I fear demand may fade. when should I list?

    I am having no trouble moving the Holiday Sets at $30 each right now. How much were you looking to get?

  • YodaliciousYodalicious Member Posts: 1,366
    Sharifa said:

    I'm just getting started and have somewhat limited funds, so I'm thinking of starting out with smaller, less expensive sets. Any thoughts on the resale value of those little Star Wars sets with the planets? I'm thinking they might do well, but my husband thinks they won't.

    My guess is that they won't appreciate too well for quite some time. The main reason is that they're much too easy to get. Every Target, Walmart, TRU has a ridiculous amount of them and has for sometime. I've even seen some of the less desirable battle packs disappear far before those.

    That and the minifigs aren't the most desirable as many you can get other ways.

    That said, I like them and think it's a fun concept, but they're just so easy to get at this point.

    Of course, getting and entire set and putting it away will only cost you $60 and take up minimal room, so it's not necessarily a high risk venture.

  • emilewskiemilewski Member Posts: 482
    ^^ I would be happy with $30 for each of the two I have now. I will post now and see what they do. Do you do BIN?
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    emilewski said:

    ^^ I would be happy with $30 for each of the two I have now. I will post now and see what they do. Do you do BIN?

    I always use BIN, 30 day GTC. List at what price you feel comfortable selling at (I always list at a premium to auction prices). The orders will take care of themselves and you don't have to worry about what a good time to sell is. If you need the cash right now then you will need to list an auction.

  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    edited December 2012
    The IS just went up in price on amazon. If you haven't got it, I would get one soon. I don't think it will go on sale for a good discount much more. I'm not worried about how well it will do. I didn't get enough #10195 when I could have and I won't make the same mistake twice about a great set. If amazon would've let me buy another pair, I probably would have.

    $30 is a lot for that holiday set. I don't understand why people buy from sellers with higher prices when there is an abundance of sellers with lower prices.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Yeah, I think $20 is a fair price for those Holiday Sets.
    pcirone
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,789
    edited December 2012
    Sharifa said:

    I posted a question yesterday but got no replies so I hope it is okay for me to ask again...

    I'm just getting started and have somewhat limited funds, so I'm thinking of starting out with smaller, less expensive sets. Any thoughts on the resale value of those little Star Wars sets with the planets? I'm thinking they might do well, but my husband thinks they won't. Also thinking the little Friends sets may be worthwhile. Any others to consider? Also any general advice on reselling smaller sets/reselling on a limited budget would be appreciated (most of the info I've found on this thread has been in regards to large sets).

    Don't worry I won't spam the forum with repetition if no-one replies to this post either!

    Well when you say put them away for selling later, how much are you looking to get on return?

    I would say you really roll the dice when it comes to small sets nowadays... Only because LEGO usually makes a ton and people buy a ton, some people also buy a ton to specifically resell them later, and they will not care about making only 5 dollars per set if they have 50-100 of them.
    So if you do buy a 20 dollar set to sell later for 40, it is a good return, but it would be far better if you buy 10-20 of that specific set, and even then you have to hope it will go up in price.

    I know it is a bit counter productive, but IMO if you are going to buy only a handful of sets to wait until they retire to sell then go big and not small.. just my two cents, buy an SW Imperial Shuttle from Amazon (well when they were on sale for 210 anyway, unfortunately they went back up)for example and throw it in a closet. I'm sure others will reply and say do the opposite, but I just do not see these small SW sets doing anything for quite some time, or if they do you will need to buy a load of them and hope they go up.
    It used to be you could sneak up on the market and buy 20 Batman and Catwoman chases for 10-15 dollars then turn around and sell them for 50-60 dollars.. The problem this time is EVERYONE knows about it (at least the big spenders) and they will all buy 50-100 and that will keep the price down after EOL. Which means you may sell but it is going to take an awful long time and you may not get what you want, and is it worth the time to sporadically sell a few sets here or there, storage of those sets, etc etc.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    Pitfall69 said:

    Yeah, I think $20 is a fair price for those Holiday Sets.

    That is what I am getting after fees lol.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    The holiday sets are now on sale at the LEGO stores. I picked up 5 more last night for $14.99 each. I'm netting $20 each after fees so that is a nice $5 profit instantly. :)

    They had hundreds left in stock. They would only sell me 5. :( Oh well...
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    LegoFanTexas said:

    The holiday sets are now on sale at the LEGO stores. I picked up 5 more last night for $14.99 each. I'm netting $20 each after fees so that is a nice $5 profit instantly. :)

    They had hundreds left in stock. They would only sell me 5. :( Oh well...

    If they wound up with plenty left, it makes it even more mind-boggling that they pulled the promotion about halfway through the last day.
  • PicopiratePicopirate Member Posts: 325
    I thought about getting the planets and reselling but came to the same conclusion as others here... There are tons of the sets. As series 3 and 4 come out series 1 and 2 will likely go on clearance. If the price drops below $5 then I might pick some up but I doubt the prices will ever climb above $15.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    emilewski said:

    I am in need of some reselling advice myself actually. I am getting pretty good at picking good investment choices (other than my two Death Stars I bought at full price a year ago when everyone thought they were being discontinued and they are still collecting dust). Anyway, I need to get better at figuring out the best time to sell. I flipped my Mine and Minecraft sets and was happy at a reasonable profit, but sold too early and if I had waited until now it would have been a much better return.

    Specifically, is now a good time to sell my QARs as the price has risen pretty good and we are in the Christmas rush? Or is it better to wait?

    Also with the 2012 Holiday gift set, the market is flooded right now as everyone just got their BF orders. If I wait too long I fear demand may fade. when should I list?

    What I've found is that the sharpest spike in price typically (but not always) comes right before the first post-retirement Christmas. That won't usually be the maximum, of course, but it will still often net you a healthy profit. The IF, for example, had an RRP of $179 (and could be had for as low as about $130), sold last Christmas for around $280 and has since climbed to about $330. I think QAR will follow a similar trend (as well as the BP, though Target may have killed a bit of that momentum this year).

    So what I've found to be a good strategy (for me) is to sell x amount of sets immediately and then keep the rest back for the following year. For me, I'll sell more immediately, because I have limited amount of space in my store to devote to LEGO storage, and I like to keep more of it free to keep room for potential 'fresh' sets for the following year.

    Just keep in mind, though, my goals are likely different than yours, and what I get out of this method is the 'self-funding hobby' that I think a lot of resellers are after, with perhaps a small profit on the side.
  • PicopiratePicopirate Member Posts: 325
    79003 is already sold out at my local TRU. Any thoughts if that will sell out and fetch a good price before the holidays? It probably won't repeat the success of mine craft but could still be worth getting and holding on to. If it dose not sell out then just return after the holidays.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Picopirate said:

    79003 is already sold out at my local TRU. Any thoughts if that will sell out and fetch a good price before the holidays? It probably won't repeat the success of mine craft but could still be worth getting and holding on to. If it dose not sell out then just return after the holidays.

    There is a big pile of them over at the LEGO store, plus Amazon has a ton of them in stock.

    I doubt it... but I've been wrong before. :)
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    I've seen them at every Lego store, Walmart & TRU I've been to. Should be a popular set, however.
  • kdzgonkdzgon Member Posts: 12
    Dougout said:

    The IS just went up in price on amazon. If you haven't got it, I would get one soon. I don't think it will go on sale for a good discount much more. I'm not worried about how well it will do. I didn't get enough #10195 when I could have and I won't make the same mistake twice about a great set. If amazon would've let me buy another pair, I probably would have. ...

    I was just able to order two IS at TRU. They are actually reg (Lego) price, though not included in their BO, get 50% off sale.

  • kdzgonkdzgon Member Posts: 12
    Also, the red cargo train (retiring soon) is included in TRU sale and in stock as of this post.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 889
    ^ Limit of one, so bogo is nogo.
  • kdzgonkdzgon Member Posts: 12
    Can I edit my posts? Sorry for the multiples...I checked Amazon, to see the difference, and the IS is only $193
    Sorry on TRU train, too - didn't see the limit of 1.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    I wouldn't hesitate at $193. It is showing $259.99 (full retail) for me
  • pcironepcirone Member Posts: 346
    I'm seeing RRP also, where do you see $193?
  • emilewskiemilewski Member Posts: 482
    I think he is seeing this one, which is NOT what we were thinking of...

    http://www.amazon.com/LEGO-Star-7166-Imperial-Shuttle/dp/B000058A3A/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&qid=1354402120&sr=8-3&keywords=lego+imperial+shuttle
  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,987
    I would also say for those that don't understand it...
    y2josh said:

    LegoFanTexas said:

    The holiday sets are now on sale at the LEGO stores. I picked up 5 more last night for $14.99 each. I'm netting $20 each after fees so that is a nice $5 profit instantly. :)

    They had hundreds left in stock. They would only sell me 5. :( Oh well...

    If they wound up with plenty left, it makes it even more mind-boggling that they pulled the promotion about halfway through the last day.
    I have to agree with that. I suspect the stores may have stock than they had online stock, but still... Basically Lego lost out on a last minute online $150 sale from me, simply because they ran out of that set on line. I at least got my one holiday set from my in-store purchase, but I was tempted to place in one online order to receive a 2nd one. Obviously, my sale isn't 'tons' of money, but I would guess I wasn't the only one that simply didn't order once the online promotion was gone.

    Thanks for the heads-up @LegoFanTexas. I will check my store to see if there are any left.



  • kdzgonkdzgon Member Posts: 12
    http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B000058A3A/ref=oh_details_o00_s00_i00 (Brian's Toys) - now showing just 1 more in stock. I decided to purchase here rather than TRU.
    I think someone had been looking for the space shuttle? That's $84.99 at Target.com.
  • kdzgonkdzgon Member Posts: 12
    If I posted the wrong IS, I apologize. I'm buying for my SIL, and he directed me to it - sorry if it's the wrong one!
  • BastaBasta Member Posts: 1,259
    @kdzgon They are completley different sets. The one in your link above #7166 is a older set from 2001. It only has 219 parts, compared to the current Imperial Shuttle #10212 which has over ten times as many parts 2482. This is the one TRU has.

    You may want to double check which one they want.
  • pcironepcirone Member Posts: 346
    edited December 2012
    I'll bet your SiL is after 10212.
  • bri4jennbri4jenn Member Posts: 96
    edited December 2012
    #10229 (Winter Village Cottage) is now showing as SOLD OUT on USA Lego Shop at Home. Surely this is not gone for good, but could be a good pre-Christmas selling opportunity if you have them.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ Don't think so. Lego stores are fully stocked.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor Member Posts: 1,258
    Speaking of Sold Outs at [email protected], compare #2521 and #9446 : the former is unanimously seen as EOLing, but what are the odds for a restock of the latter, or any of the other Ninjago sets not showing a shipping date? Tough call, considering the abbreviated future of the line.
  • mountebankmountebank Member Posts: 1,237
    edited December 2012
    I wasn't convinced by posts saying that Monster Fighters would be a one-off. It seemed to be a well-received theme and I assumed it would continue to be available while it remained popular.

    So much so that when I had 3 Zombies #9465 sets reserved at RRP as part of a 3 for 2 deal I didn't bother because it seemed a fair bet that the set would be discounted and available in a later 3 for 2. Not my smartest decision since this set now seems to be completely unavailable in the UK.

    I assume this set is now going to do well on this side of The Pond. I wonder about the other sets, although not maybe Scientist/Monster #9466 since this has been sold here in vast numbers at insane discounts.
  • DadDad Member Posts: 816
    ^ But regarding #9466 it doesn't need to do well if you picked it up at insane prices. I have said several times that its the price you purchase at that makes the profit, not the selling price. That aside I think the whole theme will do well if it runs for less than a year.
  • mountebankmountebank Member Posts: 1,237
    That would be great if I lived near a Tesco that sold LEGO. I would be over the moon to be picking up #9466 at £10 or even £6.66.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,789
    mountebank said:

    I wasn't convinced by posts saying that Monster Fighters would be a one-off. It seemed to be a well-received theme and I assumed it would continue to be available while it remained popular.

    So much so that when I had 3 Zombies #9465 sets reserved at RRP as part of a 3 for 2 deal I didn't bother because it seemed a fair bet that the set would be discounted and available in a later 3 for 2. Not my smartest decision since this set now seems to be completely unavailable in the UK.

    Funny thing about MH #9465 The Zombies set.
    On [email protected] US it is not in the MH section, but you have to search for it on their site, then it appears.
    I would say search the LEGO site first as it may be there, just removed from the MH listing.

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Maybe you can't find them because you are looking for MH instead of MF ;) j/k

    People are infatuated with Zombies. I was only able to find one set at a local Target.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    Picopirate said:

    I thought about getting the planets and reselling but came to the same conclusion as others here... There are tons of the sets. As series 3 and 4 come out series 1 and 2 will likely go on clearance. If the price drops below $5 then I might pick some up but I doubt the prices will ever climb above $15.

    These sets are the worst to keep on a shelf in storage. The bulging planet balls cause all kinds of havoc to my anal-retentive engineering shelving skills :)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    ^I agree. They are prone to getting ripped around the planet. I think they are a neat idea and a cheap way to get Sebulba. Also, they make great Christmas Tree ornaments. Other than that, I don't think they make great investment material.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    The primary problem with the planet sets is that they are obvious investment items. "Series 1" just screams "hey, we're going to have more series, then these will retire, then people will want the whole series, so invest now!"

    Which sounds nice, if everyone hadn't done this already with CMFs.

    These have never been hard to find, anywhere. I get the feeling they were produced in huge numbers.

    Do I have a few put back? Yes, because I wouldn't want to see them go to $30 and have none. :) But I have a fairly small number set aside.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Ok. I guess, if you had 100's and didn't mind making a small profit on each one, they would be ok. The big problem here is storage. They are oddly shaped. I wouldn't want to deal with them.
  • 111ins111ins Member Posts: 265
    maybe better to buy polybags instead. they are cheaper and easier to ship and store
    0.02$
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    ^This

    You can store 24 poly bags safely (not packed too tight) for every 2 Planet sets.
  • littlepuppilittlepuppi Member Posts: 181
    Guys is unimog eol? What are predictions for future value?
  • hoyatableshoyatables Member Posts: 873
    I have an extra Elrond mini fig and an extra TC-14. When's the best time to unload these puppies and what's the best forum for doing so?
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