Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

Penkid11

Attack of the Wargs should do quite well, depending on how many sets will include Wargs.

madforLEGO

#5770 Lighthouse showing as 'Sold out' on [email protected] as well as #5771 hillside house

FatMatt

My opinion is that with the majority of the sets, they are well overpriced, so how well you will do with a short term investment depends on buying them at a good discount.

Dougout

Im glad this thread veers off track towards shipping boxes and Fedex prices. It helps me as a reseller more than the usual talk of what's EOL. How many times can we ask each other our thoughts on #10188? It could go soon or stick around till 2015 like @Ma1234 said. Boring talk...boring, boring, boring....

cloaked7

^ he he, Well put. Course I wouldn't call chit chat about UPS and FedEx shipping costs enthralling reading. :-)

richo

Penkid11 said:

Attack of the Wargs should do quite well, depending on how many sets will include Wargs.

Good point, although I build my own Wargs! :-D

madforLEGO

The great thing about this site is that if people want to wax poetic about shipping boxes and rates you can build a thread specifically for that.
Otherwise someone needs to change this thread title to 'shipping types, and rates'
I check this thread out for updates on sets going out, or opinions, rumors of sets being discontinued, not for a continual discussion about shipping. While I can understand it is useful information and this thread occasionally going off course, you have the ability, if you want to keep discussing a specific topic not related to the thread it is in, to actually build another thread to discuss it at length.
It is the same reason why there is a specific brag thread even though you 'could' do that in almost every thread as well.
Just my two cents

---- Stepping off of soapbox.

avoiceoreason

I'm going to have to take another look at USPS shipping rates, as anything over 4-5 lbs always seems to be cheaper for me to ship via FedEx - and particularly for long haul shipments. And I always felt bad about the long transit times of parcel post, plus better tracking and insurance as has been mentioned w/ FedEx.

But maybe I have been living in the clouds for the last year or so. I'll price compare on my next shipment.

And again, sorry if I drove us slightly OT w/ my question about boxes, but I appreciated all of the responses!

kim43235

^ Exactly. I have been using USPS solely over few years thinking that it's cheaper than Fedex/UPS. I just did comparison between USPS and Fedex for 7lb shipment from OH to CA. USPS Priority is $23 and Fedex Ground is $15.25. I'll make sure I will use Fedex for large sets for shipping. I am somewhat relieved from shipping charge for large items as they are always big margin factor when it comes to selling. Thanks guys!

dougts

madforLEGO said:

#5770 Lighthouse showing as 'Sold out' on [email protected] as well as #5771 hillside house

both of these are on the confirmed EOL list for this year

thornie

What's peoples feeling on #7965? It's seemingly out of stock everywhere and Walmart just finished clearing them out. Will we get one more year out if it? Or is it on it's way out soon?

madforLEGO

^-- If 7965 is gone that kind of surprises me as it just does not seem like it has been out long enough. I think it has only been out for about a year.
LEGO [email protected] I think had it listed at one point as 'Sold out' but now it is showing on backorder.

LEGO always seems to like throwing a curveball and showing something as Sold out but you have to remember that sometimes LEGO's site shows 'sold out', but the item really is not gone... Heck GE completely disappeared from the site only to come back.
As for the other places selling out, it could just be due to popularity and not enough stock from LEGO which also occurs a lot during this time of year.

Dougout

Out here in Mass. shipping large packages long distances is almost always cheaper using FedEx. USPS does a great job shipping my smaller parcels quickly for cheap.

Yodalicious

y2josh said:

Out of curiosity, has anyone purchased the Death Star more recently? I'm just curious to know if they've updated the minifigs or if they're still way out of date. It just doesn't seem like they'd continue to print all the old parts for the minifigs when so many have been updated since the Death Star came out.

Got mine maybe a month ago. Same as it has always been as far as I can tell.

kim43235

I'm down to my last minecraft. It made my year and it was almost like AAPL stock for me although AAPL is tanking down lately :( Hope they are re-stocked soon.

Lloyd ZX also has picked up for sale also. It's been sold around $24 lately. I didn't know it would be this popular as I thought it was available everywhere. Last week I spotted bunch of Lloyd ZX stock at Meijer and I just passed them as I have quite a few left. It's been selling like hot cakes and now I regret that I didn't pick them up from Meijer. When I checked this week, there were all gone.

cbaker1974

I use both Fedex and USPS, the breakpoint for me (even w/ powerseller USPS discount) is 4 or 5 lbs. I also tried UPS but Fedex was cheaper for me, it seemed like UPS dimensional weight charges were more than Fedex for my small personal account (10 packages a week maybe through Fedex).

I do the Delta program to get a base discount and then they have skymiles promotions once a quarter or so (a few months ago it was 1000 miles per every 5th package shipped). There are other partners too (I supposed eBay qualifies as a partner, I will have to check their rates vs. my account). Also, if you have an AMEX business card, AMEX OPEN benefits get you 5% off if you pay your bill with the AMEX.

http://www.fedex.com/us/open-savings/program-discounts.html

dragonhawk

avoiceoreason said:

I'm going to have to take another look at USPS shipping rates, as anything over 4-5 lbs always seems to be cheaper for me to ship via FedEx - and particularly for long haul shipments. And I always felt bad about the long transit times of parcel post, plus better tracking and insurance as has been mentioned w/ FedEx.

Good tips. The only drawback seems to be Fedex does not accept PO Box as a valid Sender's address

Dougout

@madforLEGO I understand, I used to check this thread everyday for information. I've read all 157 pages one time or another and there came a point when I realized most of what I was reading did not offer much. Very few of us have inside sources like flump( @Legoboy ?) or LFT. Even their sources don't have 100% accurate info. Therefore, I see most of our input as speculation only backed up by our beliefs about why a certain set will do well. I have my own opinions and love for sets that shape my attitude on how they will do during EOL. I don't see the constant chatter of EOL very productive for anything.

Like @FatMatt said, maybe this thread title should be changed AGAIN, but I think the mods already do a good job of keeping this monster thread under control. I don't think opening a new thread every time this one goes off topic is a good idea, it won't generate the kind of responses this thread would.

Again, I see your point, but I see no problem with slightly off topic discussions as long as they are relevant reselling topics.

LegoFanTexas

Dougout said:

I've read all 157 pages one time or another and there came a point when I realized most of what I was reading did not offer much.

"Hey look, dead horses, we beat them!"

Now I just need a red and blue doodad!

Dougout said:

Very few of us have inside sources like flump( @Legoboy ?) or LFT. Even their sources don't have 100% accurate info.

Correct, sometimes we're wrong, sometimes our sources are wrong, and sometimes what is right today is changed tomorrow.

After all, TLG can do anything it wants, including changing when sets EOL, even after putting out information otherwise.

I just try to help out because I know many of you are just trying to self-fund your hobbies, and the info is useful to you.

The serious resellers should be getting the same info I get on their own, it would be in their own best interest to do so.

LegoFanTexas

dragonhawk said:

Good tips. The only drawback seems to be Fedex does not accept PO Box as a valid Sender's address

Nope, because how would FedEx return the box if it is undeliverable?

Diggydoes

For me as a german bricksetter the "info"on the different shipping companies in the US and their pro and cons is worthless,and i guess for all other bricksetters outside of the US it is also!

Regarding the hobbit/LOTR sets,i guess it will be interesting to see where the first hobbit/LOTR wave goes (pricewise)when the 2.&3.hobbit movie will come to cinemas! I'm pretty sure the first waves will have EOL'ed when these movies start and i guess if the hobbit movies will become as big as the LOTR trilogy the first sets will do very well then!

dragonhawk

LegoFanTexas said:

dragonhawk said:

Good tips. The only drawback seems to be Fedex does not accept PO Box as a valid Sender's address

Nope, because how would FedEx return the box if it is undeliverable?

No, I understand that makes sense from FedEx point of view.

Some people rent PO Boxes especially to get business addresses and/or to keep business and private lives separated. Unless they have proper business locations, they need have to use home addresses to utilize Fedex services

y2josh

FedEx is actually a lot cheaper once you cross the USPS 'zone divide,' but again, I find their service to be so extraordinarily poor, it's not worth having all of my packages show up crushed. YMMV, of course.

CupIsHalfEmpty

So on Last Saturday I was at the Mall of America Lego store and bought The winter Bakery. I grabbed it at full price because I wanted to get it before it goes EOL. When I got to the till it scanned as 20% off. The clerk was just as surprised as I was that is was on sale. So it appears lego is starting to clear these out. Or it may have silently made it's way on sale during BF weekend.

LegoFanTexas

#10216 has not been restocked in my local LEGO stores this season, it left last year and never returned. I was told that stock levels were too low to fill all the stores, so some got shipments and the rest went to [email protected]

This set is clearly EOL this year, so grab it while you can.

Sadly it isn't 20% off at [email protected], but of course if it was it would be gone in a day. Perhaps LEGO has figured that out? :)

doriansdad

Hmmm after reviewing Fedex prices more closely using ebay for the labels it appears there are "other charges" tacked onto the price in some, but not all, instances. Not sure if these are extra ebay or fedex charges, but either way u still pay for them.

madforLEGO

LegoFanTexas said:

#10216 has not been restocked in my local LEGO stores this season, it left last year and never returned. I was told that stock levels were too low to fill all the stores, so some got shipments and the rest went to [email protected]

This set is clearly EOL this year, so grab it while you can.

Sadly it isn't 20% off at [email protected], but of course if it was it would be gone in a day. Perhaps LEGO has figured that out? :)

If my memory serves me, LEGO does not list the holiday sets at discount until after Christmas usually

cloaked7

I have noticed the extra charges too. When I first saw them I checked what it would cost me using my FedEx account and using FedEx via eBay was still cheaper (not by much, but cheaper). So, I guess those extra charges are added regardless. That may be the charge for home delivery, but I'm not sure.

The_Mack

LegoFanTexas said:

The_Mack said:

Does anyone think the #10188 will retire this year?

No, it will be around at least another year.

I was trying to be sarcastic with my question...with trying to put the thread back on the rails, but it's sometimes hard to put that in text.

LegoFanTexas

The_Mack said:

I was trying to be sarcastic with my question...with trying to put the thread back on the rails, but it's sometimes hard to put that in text.

:)

So, do we think 10188 or 10221 will retire first?

:)

BlueMoonUSA

I was excited to see 73 new posts on this thread from when I checked this morning. Then I was saddened that most were about reseller shipping practices.

tk79

^Here you go:



No no, don't thank me, just promise to return the favor with a cute cat pic next time I'm feeling sad.

BlueMoonUSA

You just made my afternoon tk79. Grinning wider than the old cheshire right now :)

doriansdad

madforLEGO said:

LegoFanTexas said:

#10216 has not been restocked in my local LEGO stores this season, it left last year and never returned. I was told that stock levels were too low to fill all the stores, so some got shipments and the rest went to [email protected]

This set is clearly EOL this year, so grab it while you can.

Sadly it isn't 20% off at [email protected], but of course if it was it would be gone in a day. Perhaps LEGO has figured that out? :)

If my memory serves me, LEGO does not list the holiday sets at discount until after Christmas usually

I just finished selling the last of my Toy Shops. I don't think I am going to stock up on Bakeries. The Toy Shop was cool and the first in the series (if you don't count 10173). The Bakery just did not impress me like the Toy Shop so I think I will pass.

cbaker1974

@doriansdad same here, I did well with the Toy Shop, but one of my criteria in buying is to get a significant discount off MSRP and I've not seen that this year for the bakery, especially since TRU kept excluding it from sales.

ColoradoBricks

It is my first year reselling big sets on eBay and I am surprised by the results (in a good way). I just sold #4195 QAR and #7946 for $200 each (includes free ship) while I thought I did over priced them a bit (as we were still 4 weeks away from xmas) and was just testing the waters.. I also sold mid-range Friends sets more than twice RRP, After my dark ages and rediscovering LEGO, it is now getting funded by it self...

samiam391

I'll sound really ignorant here, but is the GE officially retired, or close to going out? I've heard lots of conflicting reports.

dougts

If there is anything official on GE it is a VERY well kept secret. Everything on it is speculation only

cloaked7

Listed some Lloyd ZX's before Thanksgiving and they just sat and sat, no one buying them. Then suddenly, today I've sold 4 for $25. Now I'm thinking they may sell for even more in a week or two. What do you think they will top out at before Christmas?

dragonhawk

^ Probably around $35, a week before Christmas

LegoFanTexas

dragonhawk said:

^ Probably around $35, a week before Christmas

Perhaps...

There are still several large sellers who have thousands of these...

I've been slowly selling mine off because of this, I think it is near the top. While it might go higher, it only takes one large seller deciding to unload to turn it all back down.

It is 2.5x RRP just a few months after it came out, what more do you want? :)

roxio

^yes, I keep finding little batches in UK stores for around £5, can easily unload quickly for £15ish, not exactly getting rich but its an easy flip

Yodalicious

Funny because Lloyd ZX is still available all over where I am (Florida). I haven't picked any up because I stick to my themes, but I might have to grab a couple and put them away after seeing all the hype.

prevere

On the GE, I bought one Aug 16 when it hit back order. Just the other day, I get this message.

Thank you for ordering from shop.LEGO.com. Unfortunately, the item(s) listed below are currently out of stock and it will be a little longer before we can ship them to you.

I wonder after 3 months out of stock, if we're going to see it again? I still say yes. If my purchase had been for a Xmas gift, I would be a little disturbed by this message.

[email protected] shows the shipping date as Dec 23, but whoa that a big delay from Aug 16.

Bumblepants

^could be they are just trying to fix the error with that flower bit not having a hollow stud on top

Picopirate

@Bumblepants If so I hope they fix the flimsy mount for the chandelier too. However if they were fixing the flower, then I would think that they would have fixed the error in the replacement part database. I just ordered a replacement and got the same wrong part. I had to call and still have doubts that I will get the correct part. My guess is that they probably decided to keep the FB one more year and retire the GE this year.

Sharifa

I posted a question yesterday but got no replies so I hope it is okay for me to ask again...

I'm just getting started and have somewhat limited funds, so I'm thinking of starting out with smaller, less expensive sets. Any thoughts on the resale value of those little Star Wars sets with the planets? I'm thinking they might do well, but my husband thinks they won't. Also thinking the little Friends sets may be worthwhile. Any others to consider? Also any general advice on reselling smaller sets/reselling on a limited budget would be appreciated (most of the info I've found on this thread has been in regards to large sets).

Don't worry I won't spam the forum with repetition if no-one replies to this post either!

UKtsumi

^ Possibly, if you can pick them up cheap enough, but with selling fees and postal charges increasing each year, you may have to wait a few years before you even get your money back. Maybe better off investing what you have in just a few larger mid ranged items. Keep a look out for sales and deals, at the moment toys r us have #7869 for £19.99 (almost half price), a few of these may start you off better than a load of £5-£10 sets (presuming you are in the UK?)

emilewski

^^ I am a small time reseller (to support my hobby) and have nowhere the experience as many on here. However, in my opinion the planet sets will not do all that well as compared to other options. There is an active polybag collector community out there after the polys, but not a planet collector base. The minifigs are not unique and the brick-built SW things can easily be done through bricklink or PAB.

If on a limited budget, I do things like get a bunch of polys and throw them up on bricklink and ebay when they first come out. For the MF ghosts I bought 30 and sold them for around $2 each profit (some a little more). So that was $60 there. I picked up 7 of the batmobile polys and sold them with about $20 profit in the end. A few Chase polys for another $20 profit. It is more work (lots of little transactions) but less outlays and quick turnaround. If the polys do not sell then you can just return them to the store so no risk.

You can then use those profits to self fund larger investments. $100 sets on sale, held for a while and then sold for profit, then reinvest those funds for more sets, etc. Eventually you can self fund with turn over.

Look for clearance sales, especially after Christmas.

emilewski

I am in need of some reselling advice myself actually. I am getting pretty good at picking good investment choices (other than my two Death Stars I bought at full price a year ago when everyone thought they were being discontinued and they are still collecting dust). Anyway, I need to get better at figuring out the best time to sell. I flipped my Mine and Minecraft sets and was happy at a reasonable profit, but sold too early and if I had waited until now it would have been a much better return.

Specifically, is now a good time to sell my QARs as the price has risen pretty good and we are in the Christmas rush? Or is it better to wait?

Also with the 2012 Holiday gift set, the market is flooded right now as everyone just got their BF orders. If I wait too long I fear demand may fade. when should I list?