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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • DadsAFOLDadsAFOL USAMember Posts: 617
    Just noticed a nice little surprise. #4206 Recycling truck is going for $50 on Amazon and about $45 on eBay. Nice 50% ROI on a 2012 city set. Is this 2012's incarnation of the helicopter & limo set from 2011?
  • stegmancostegmanco Member Posts: 42
    edited November 2012
    Noticed QAR and mine craft are on the rise any other sets people have seen on the rise recently?
  • allmybricksallmybricks Member Posts: 156
    I've been watching #4206 closely... still very plentiful in my area and still available on walmart.com (exclusive).

    I'm pretty surprised about #4431, #4434, #4435, etc all being sold out already. I've been buying a few of these up in the BOGO50's, mainly for personal use.
  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439
    #4206 links to the wrong set. Over here in Hungary the recycling truck is one of the most abundant sets btw. Tesco had it at 50% off several times, and one of the most significant webshops, too. RRP here was about $50, but as virtually anyone could buy it for $25 for extended periods one can still snatch it on auction sites for $35 or less from resellers.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    4206 is in stock at RRP at Walmart, and it is easy to find in Europe, I don't see this one going much over where it is at until Christmas next year.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    #4206-2 looks cool, I can see why it is dong well as it is sold out on [email protected] I personally love city and think the vehicle designs are awesome. #4205 seems like it could do well too, only just noticed this set because it is a Target exclusive.
  • JessyDooDahJessyDooDah UK Member Posts: 228
    Does the minecraft set have the same resale impact in the uk? According to [email protected] it is 'available now'. Is it still worth picking up a couple?
  • greekmickgreekmick UKMember Posts: 710
    I just picked up a #2521 but dont know much about them. Is it worth holding onto or selling now. I bought for £50 and selling on ebay at the moment for £75. Is it likely to increase any more than that?
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    On 4206 and any city set for investment, I find this classic theme difficult to evaluate. City Corner and Public Transport were easy to spot as good picks, as will Museum Heist, but unless you are getting them for 50% off retail - it's tough to pick out the winners each year.

    And I agree 4206's jump is holiday-driven solely.
  • SherlockbonesSherlockbones Member Posts: 411
    Does anyone have a idea when the new Batcave will go?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    greekmick said:

    I just picked up a #2521 but dont know much about them. Is it worth holding onto or selling now. I bought for £50 and selling on ebay at the moment for £75. Is it likely to increase any more than that?

    In my personal opinon? No.

    I have sold a lot of this set over the past 3 months, the price hasn't budged an inch in that time and there is still a lot of supply.

    I think Ninjago will retire before it has a chance to move higher, at which point demand will slaken.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    prevere said:

    On 4206 and any city set for investment, I find this classic theme difficult to evaluate. City Corner and Public Transport were easy to spot as good picks, as will Museum Heist, but unless you are getting them for 50% off retail - it's tough to pick out the winners each year.

    And I agree 4206's jump is holiday-driven solely.

    How about City House? That was a Target Exclusive, was it not?

    It seems that the exclusive sets do hold a nice chance of going up, but they also seem to sell more slowly than everything else.

    Public Transport was a good pick only because TRU put them on sale and BOGO so often, that my average cost for them is about 40% off. Otherwise, not that impressive.

    City Garage surprised me, #7642 as a set that I didn't see going up as much as it did.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    4184 seems to have moved back to where it was selling prior BF sales. From here it should continue to climb now. I expect it will be easily seling for $140-$150 by Christmas, which is not bad assuming you took advantage of their widely available discounts. I was buying them off ebay during the spring/summer for $60-$65 a piece. Makes me wonder how some of them were actually acquired. I know some Walmarts have extreme markdowns on clearanced sets, but not in my area. The best I have found was a Frigate for $50 one time. Nothing lasts on clearance long enough in my town to get marked down more than once or twice.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    edited November 2012
    Off topic but has anyone who sells on ebay seen the new FedEx shipping label option? I know it has not been rolled out to everyone yet but so far I have not found a single instance where Fedex is cheaper than USPS. Even with their so called 37% ebay discount it is still always around 20% more than USPS. Is ther service supposed to be superior? I have never had a single problem with USPS after selling thousands of items, but maybe I am missing out on something?
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    For shipping larger sets Fedex is superior, but not enough to warrant me using them:). They are more expensive to ship, but generally the packages arrive in better shape. As long as I am packaging my sets well , I don't have issues with shipping via USPS though. I just can't justify spending a few dollars more per shipment with Fedex. I guess if I started have issues with the USPS I would consider the alternative. I have used them a few times in the past upon request of the buyer.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    UPS and FedEx are cheaper once you get into volume, but USPS is often less if you're a small seller.

    For large, expensive items, UPS and FedEx are better, if only because the tracking and insurance are actually useful. I actually have never had USPS pay a claim, and I've filed several. I'm still waiting, 3 months later, for them to pay for a damaged box.

    When shipping something for $1,000+, you'd be nuts to use USPS in my personal opinion. I've had a $1,500 claim with Fedex, they paid me in 2 weeks, no hassles.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    I see. I always use a third party insurer so no worries there. Did not realize Fedex offered a greater discount than 37% off their normal prices....they must be making huge sums off casual customers!
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited November 2012
    I use FedEx because I have a location 1 mi from where I live. I have a FedEx account, which offers some discount. I just started using the eBay option to ship via FedEx and find that doing so via eBay is slightly cheaper than using my personal FedEx account. Plus, the address, etc is automatically filled in, so it makes it quicker to print the shipping label.

    And, yes. I have heard from a lot of people, some business owners, that FedEx is kinder to packages than UPS. A friend who is a business owner calls UPS 'a bunch of gorillas'. :-)
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Ultimately I know the goal of ebay is to require free shipping from all sellers. I can live with that. As soon as they also require a liberal returns policy I think I am out...I am guessing we are 2 years away from that. For some reason ebay thinks I should run my reselling business like I am Zappos....and pay them for the privilege. Maybe I need to try Bricklink.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    Around me, FedEx is the absolute worst. [email protected] ships via FedEx, and I don't know that I've ever received an exterior shipping box that doesn't appear to have been kicked around. We do have a new UPS driver at this point, however, and he's started to move things in the direction of FedEx's poor service by CONSTANTLY mis-delivering shipments. USPS remains the consistent best, though I've admittedly never had to file an insurance claim with them.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    I see. I always use a third party insurer so no worries there. Did not realize Fedex offered a greater discount than 37% off their normal prices....they must be making huge sums off casual customers!

    Yep, the discounts are huge for large customers.

    I don't know how deep FedEx goes, but I can tell you UPS is amazing... :)

    Lets just say... from Texas to California, I can send a 10lb box for $7.89 to a commercial address and $11.65 to a residential address. USPS can't touch that, even more so considering those prices include $100 worth of insurance, real tracking and a 3 day transit time.

    USPS would charge $14.48 for Parcel Post or $25.70 for Priority Mail, neither price includes insurance.

    How do you think Amazon offers free shipping? :) (they get even better rates)

    So yes, casual customers are paying through the nose...
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    ^ In terms of quantity, how much would one need to ship per day to make shipping via FedEx cheaper? How much is "volume"?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,472

    Ma1234 said:

    There is zero reason to discontinue a large flagship set with universal appeal to child and adult collectors like the Death Star. I honestly will not be surprised if it's still available in 2015 and beyond...

    But how long can the price point stay at $400? IT is drastically under priced compared to other large star wars sets.

    I think for a while. After All MMV has been around at its price even though, as others have noted, that the price per part is awesome.
    I think it is a matter of how many they sell. I honestly believe they do not sell as many as people think they do. It is still after all a 400 dollar set, BUT that also means that if they are not losing much by making it it can stay out until they decide to pull the plug.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ So, how does one get to these reduced rates? At what point? At some point does FedEx just just reducing your rates as your business climbs or do you have to contact them?
  • UKtsumiUKtsumi Member Posts: 630
    edited November 2012
    ^off topic..... can we do all this on a separate shipping thread
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    FatMatt said:

    ^ In terms of quantity, how much would one need to ship per day to make shipping via FedEx cheaper? How much is "volume"?

    First, you need a daily pickup. Second, you need to be shipping dozens of boxes a week, to get serious about it.

    I don't know what FedEx requires, I have a daily pickup with UPS and ship many thousands of boxes a year with them.

    To be honest, I ship a few things here and there with FedEx, mostly to keep my UPS rep on his toes. If he doesn't keep my discounts up, I point out that FedEx is just a phone call away. :)

    Frankly, I think that using the two of them to play off each other for discounts works better than anything else, but you do have to be nice about it, and the volume has to be there to be interesting.
  • kim43235kim43235 Member Posts: 165
    I've got only two lef

    I see. I always use a third party insurer so no worries there. Did not realize Fedex offered a greater discount than 37% off their normal prices....they must be making huge sums off casual customers!

    Yep, the discounts are huge for large customers.

    I don't know how deep FedEx goes, but I can tell you UPS is amazing... :)

    Lets just say... from Texas to California, I can send a 10lb box for $7.89 to a commercial address and $11.65 to a residential address. USPS can't touch that, even more so considering those prices include $100 worth of insurance, real tracking and a 3 day transit time.

    USPS would charge $14.48 for Parcel Post or $25.70 for Priority Mail, neither price includes insurance.

    How do you think Amazon offers free shipping? :) (they get even better rates)

    So yes, casual customers are paying through the nose...
    I would like also know how you get these rates as I would be really interested in knowing that. I've solely using USPS associated with ebay and found always cheaper than UPS/Fedex. Thanks in advance.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    FatMatt said:

    ^ In terms of quantity, how much would one need to ship per day to make shipping via FedEx cheaper? How much is "volume"?

    I am guessing it is more than my 1 set per day lol.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    gmpirate said:

    ^ So, how does one get to these reduced rates? At what point? At some point does FedEx just just reducing your rates as your business climbs or do you have to contact them?

    You have to contact them, they have local reps for businesses. You can call their 800 number (800-pickups or 800-go-fedex) or ask a driver to give your name and number to the local rep (the drivers at UPS get a spiff if they help sign up a business, so they are happy to do it).
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    @UKtsumi
    I would argue that these comments are not off topic. This thread often posts of issues relevant to reselling. In fact, a more appropriate title to this thread could be labeled: "The Art Of Reselling", as pretty much anyone could read this thread in it's entirety and get a 101 on the reselling of Lego.
    dragonhawkdougtsDougoutchrisdojo
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    cloaked7 said:

    I use FedEx because I have a location 1 mi from where I live. I have a FedEx account, which offers some discount. I just started using the eBay option to ship via FedEx and find that doing so via eBay is slightly cheaper than using my personal FedEx account. Plus, the address, etc is automatically filled in, so it makes it quicker to print the shipping label.

    When did FedEx become an option through Ebay? Also, I received a notice that UPS will no longer be an option starting next year. Can anyone else confirm this?
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    ^Very recent I just noticed the FedEx option on ebay. I would say within the last two months. Don't know if it was there prior, but that is when I noticed.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    kim43235 said:

    I would like also know how you get these rates as I would be really interested in knowing that. I've solely using USPS associated with ebay and found always cheaper than UPS/Fedex. Thanks in advance.

    I ship thousands of boxes a year via UPS, I have a daily pickup, you need to be doing volume to get these rates.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,472
    edited November 2012

    prevere said:

    On 4206 and any city set for investment, I find this classic theme difficult to evaluate. City Corner and Public Transport were easy to spot as good picks, as will Museum Heist, but unless you are getting them for 50% off retail - it's tough to pick out the winners each year.

    And I agree 4206's jump is holiday-driven solely.

    How about City House? That was a Target Exclusive, was it not?

    It seems that the exclusive sets do hold a nice chance of going up, but they also seem to sell more slowly than everything else.

    Public Transport was a good pick only because TRU put them on sale and BOGO so often, that my average cost for them is about 40% off. Otherwise, not that impressive.

    City Garage surprised me, #7642 as a set that I didn't see going up as much as it did.
    But then again the City house was also on sale at LEGO after TGiving (or was it Christmas?) for about 20 USD.. still kinda disappointed Im missed that one.


    As for the shipping discussions, they ARE off topic. Open another thread for shipping information. This thread has to do with Predicting sets and their value, not the value of shipping or supplies and how much they go up or down. While the thread can deviate it should not be taking up this much space in this thread IMO.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ Who's your favorite shipper?
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    gmpirate said:


    When did FedEx become an option through Ebay? Also, I received a notice that UPS will no longer be an option starting next year. Can anyone else confirm this?

    http://announcements.ebay.com/2012/10/great-news-for-sellers-fedex-comes-to-ebay-labels/

    I also saw the blurbs about UPS going away in March 2013 IIRC. I can't find it anywhere anymore though

  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ I received an email from UPS.
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    Anyone paying attention to the smaller Ninjago sets like #9455, and #9442, ? Both have been selling around $30 for the holidays. If I was smart, I would have bought tons of them last week for $15 when Walmart had them as part of $29 bundle with 8092/9496. That would have been 100% ROI in 1 week time. Alas, hindsight is always 20/20
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    gmpirate said:


    When did FedEx become an option through Ebay? Also, I received a notice that UPS will no longer be an option starting next year. Can anyone else confirm this?

    sounds like Fedex outbid UPS for the Ebay contract - you can bet Ebay is getting a kickback on all the shipments as well in exchange for the exclusivity. It's 37% off for sellers, but Ebay probably pays far less than that to Fedex.

  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    @LFT or anyone who knows
    One last question I have regarding shipping USPS verse FedEx/UPS. I ship a lot more parts / part lots and minifigures than I do boxed sets. Does FedEx/UPS have anything that rivals USPS First Class? As I ship a hundred or more first class packets a week.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    For those wondering about the bulk shipping discounts, it's worth noting that you need to be following a very specific business model (high volume and heavy packages) for those rates to be worth it in the long run.

    For example, I could get the business rates through UPS if I shipped with them throughout the year and save quite a bit on the handful of large LEGO sets I sell in December, but I'd also have to pay a ton more, even at discounted rates, over what I pay USPS to ship the other 99% of my normal, lightweight packages. I'm not sure if the same is true of FedEx, but as I mentioned earlier, they've proven themselves time and again to be the absolute worst carrier in my area, so I have no real interest in giving them any of my business.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    @ FatMatt for anything under 2 lbs USPS is cheapest by far. Forget about another carrier coming close to first class prices for 13oz and under.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    edited November 2012
    ^That is what my experience has shown. I was just curious if an account of volume of small packages with one of those shippers would be comparable, thus reducing the cost of my shipping larger packages with them. If that makes sense.
  • The_MackThe_Mack Member Posts: 239
    Does anyone think the #10188 will retire this year?
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    edited November 2012
    gmpirate said:

    ^ I received an email from UPS.

    Search for "UPS shipping labels" on eBay customer support site:

    Starting in May 2013, the UPS label printing services through PayPal will no longer be available. Your business should continue as usual and no change is currently required.

    UPS is and will continue to be a shipping option when you buy and sell items on eBay. Sellers can continue to purchase UPS services on PayPal for all their sales from now until May next year. We'll provide details on future label printing options as soon as they're available.

    When the change happens, you'll need to go to UPS.com to purchase UPS services and print UPS labels.

    Sellers will also need to manually add UPS tracking information to My eBay, and they're still expected to follow our shipping best practices to maintain solid performance. Buyers will still be able to track packages after May 2013 as long as tracking information is manually uploaded in My eBay.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    The_Mack said:

    Does anyone think the #10188 will retire this year?

    No, it will be around at least another year.
  • SharifaSharifa Member Posts: 9
    I'm just getting started and have somewhat limited funds, so I'm thinking of starting out with smaller, less expensive sets. Any thoughts on the resale value of those little Star Wars sets with the planets? I'm thinking they might do well, but my husband thinks they won't. Also thinking the little Friends sets may be worthwhile. Any others to consider? Also any general advice on reselling smaller sets/reselling on a limited budget would be appreciated.
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    Don't normally hang round this thread, but would be interested to see what people think about LOTR and Hobbit? I am really liking the first wave of LOTR, but I do wonder if the fan base is rather more limited than for The Hobbit, that I think should do very well with the new films.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Personally, I think the An Unexpected Gathering (Bag End) set will do well after it EOL's. I don't know about the other Hobbit sets.
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    ^ that's got to be a given, it's a beautiful set.
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