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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • canuckcanuck Member Posts: 88
    ^ I believe @doriansdad means someone else returned a large order and your store got it all.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Well, there are plenty of DA's in my local stores -- have been non-stop. Even the big castle, knight's bus, Hagrid's and the small forest set. All my stores have been out of the Maersk Train for a while but walked in yesterday and there they were.

    Its not uncommon for EOL'ing sets to appear in stores, however. Happens every year.
    SirKevbags
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367
    Given how fast Minecraft sold out the last time it was available, what are the chances this restocking will even last that long? [email protected] might be able to keep it in for a couple of days, but I question whether most people will even know to look there. I didn't even know LEGO sold sets directly until this year, so I imagine many parents are not aware either.

    Yes, it will flood the market...but even the last restock only brought ebay prices down in to the $60 range.
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    Shuttle Expedition has gone to sold out status on [email protected]
  • StewStew Member Posts: 0
    Last year I bought en extra Winter Toy Shop and have never opened it. The set is selling on ebay for somewhere around $150 right now. My question is this, will it be selling for even more next year? Is there conventional wisdom for the best time to sell for maximum price? Right after the sets sells out, after one year, after two years?

    Any suggestions would be appreciated, thanks
  • ThezoofoxThezoofox United Kingdom - EastMember Posts: 188
    A few other questions, how much did it cost, what would you do with the money? If it goes for an extra 20 bucks next year is it worth holding it for that long? Probably not.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Its neared tripled its value. It will "not" appreciate that much next year. As a percentage of investment, you will do better to sell it now and buy another EOL'ing set.
  • TockoTocko Member Posts: 24
    On ebay.de it still sells for around 60€. I am thinking of waiting another year or try to sell it on ebay.com, but that would introduce extra shipping costs and tax. Your thoughts?
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    i sold my last one last week. a year more is a long time to sit on it to make an extra $20 or $30.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Sell
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    Yep great time to sell, run up to christmas. It would probably go down in value a little after christmas which I find happens to a lot of sets due to lack of demand and folks not having the money to spend, it would then pick up again around October/November time by which time it may only be a few £'s more in anycase.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    QAR seems to be climbing in price pretty well, quicker than I expected. I guess BP will take a little while to catch up do to it being more widely available at heavy discounts, but I still think it will catch up with QAR.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,479
    edited November 2012
    Black pearl seems to be doing well too considering they were on sale at Targets for 75.
    3677 seems to be doing fairly well considering they were put on sale at LEGO and if you did it right you got them for about 112 dollars
  • thorniethornie Member Posts: 245
    Just sold my last minecraft which had a pretty beat up box, for $100. I'm hoping I made the right decision and sold high on these. I will definitely be picking up more when S&H restocks them in December.
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    ^I think you did. Whenever you can make almost 3 times the rrp (or more if you got a deal) from a set then you should walk away happy. I sold mine for the same price point and couldn't be happier.
    thornieLegoFanTexasPenkid11
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,479
    Yeah.. I may actually buy a Minecraft set or two if they show up at the US [email protected] again.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    Nice thing about the Minecraft set is that it's small and light. I just sold the mine set and struggled finding a box to ship it in.
  • avoiceoreasonavoiceoreason Member Posts: 224
    ^speaking of which, where do you big resellers get your boxes? I looked at U-line, but the price to ship to me was almost as much as the boxes themselves.
  • thehockeyboythehockeyboy Member Posts: 97
    Check your Walmart or target for boxes... They usually don't care if you grab some. Often I have to use two boxes combined to ship the big sets
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    if you engage in only occasional selling, getting secondhand boxes as #thehockeyboy suggests is a workable option, I did that for quite some time. Once you start shipping any kind of quantity you begin to realize it's well worth the expense to pre-buy sturdy pristine boxes in the various sizes you will need. U Line has a code to get free shipping on orders over $300. They also have a box sale going on right now as well, so it's a good time to buy.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    ^^ULINE is fantastic if you're buying boxes in volume, but if you only need a few, you're going to get killed with the shipping.
  • thehockeyboythehockeyboy Member Posts: 97
    I'm a power seller on eBay and have no problem getting big boxes in bulk for free at target, though I also have a place to store them!

    How much do those big boxes typically cost?
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    They're usuaully ~$1.00 a box for the largest ones you'd need for LEGO. I think the most I've paid is $1.23. I typically order my LEGO boxes along with the boxes I need for standard business operations, though.
  • thehockeyboythehockeyboy Member Posts: 97
    Good to know, thanks.

    Though USPS priority boxes do the trick for >95% of my merch
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367
    Walmart locally sells a 6x6x6 box that the Minecraft set fits perfectly inside, with room for some bubble wrap to cushion it. The boxes are less than $0.40. I know stock can vary be region, but figured I would throw that out there if you're not looking to buy in bulk.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    I have my local boxing supplier price match uline and pick it up at will call. I am guessing most suppliers in your local cities would be happy to do the same...call them and ask.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,479
    edited November 2012
    Also you can order free USPS priority boxes or Flat rate boxes from USPS.com, but only if you are shipping with Priority that is, or have that brown shipping paper to cover the box in shipping. Though you are not supposed to do that and USPS gets kinda nasty if you do and they detect it.

    Otherwise UPS and other shipping places, but Big boxes at a shipping place by me could go from 4-8 bucks easily depending on size.

    Like others, I suggest ULINE if you are selling LEGO sets in large boxes and are selling multiples of them as, even with shipping fees from ULINE, the cost per box is usually much less than shipping places at least that I have found.
  • DaddyDeuceDaddyDeuce Member Posts: 272
    I'll go against the above advice and say keep it until at least next Christmas.

    This is a set you definitely want to sell in November or early December. If you wait until January you will see a definite price drop. But next year it will be in demand again when people start building their winter villages.

    I look at this set as the "Cafe Corner" of the winter sets. It was the first and nobody knew what the theme was going to turn into. Unlike the modulars though, demand has a cyclical nature that peaks in winter-time.

    In the interest of full disclosure I will admit that I sold almost all of my copies of this set. However, that wasn't because I thought the price had peaked, it is because I'm running out of storage space and I find myself forced to sell sets (even ones I'd like to hold onto) to make room for new sets.
    BrickDancer
  • avoiceoreasonavoiceoreason Member Posts: 224
    Thanks everyone for the replies. Ironically, I always seem to have plenty of boxes for the larger sets. It's actually the smaller sets like battle packs and stuff that I have trouble with. Thanks #icccarus for the suggestion on Wal-Mart. Wouldn't have thought to look there, and that may be just what I need!

    I'm also going to check out the U-line sale and see if I can find a local supplier that will price match.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    .

    ^speaking of which, where do you big resellers get your boxes? I looked at U-line, but the price to ship to me was almost as much as the boxes themselves.

    ULine used to offer free shipping if you spent $300 at a time, but my understanding is that new accounts no longer get that option.

    Being able to get boxes like 24x16x4 (which will ship the Mine and BP perfectly) and 24x20x4" (which will ship the modulars perfectly) makes life SO much easier.

    If you can find a local box supply store, most medium towns will have one, they can sell you the boxes for a small markup over ULine prices. I used to buy from such a store until I figured out they were just buying directly from ULine. If you only need 20 boxes, that is the route to go. The cost will be higher per box, but you don't have to buy so many.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    I'm a power seller on eBay and have no problem getting big boxes in bulk for free at target, though I also have a place to store them!

    How much do those big boxes typically cost?

    Those boxes, in small qty, will cost you $2-3 each. In large qty, $1 each. In Target's qty, probably 50 cents each or maybe even less.

    I do reuse boxes sometimes when I pack odds and ends, but once you start to employ someone to do the packing, quickly you figure out that it is actually cheaper to buy bundles of brand new perfect size boxes than it is to pay your staff to reuse odd-size boxes that may need reinforcement, extra packing material, or need to be cut down in size.

    Also, when you have 30 or 40 shipments a day being picked up, having the boxes no larger than needed helps a lot.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    I order from Uline, but also buy some of Walmart's smaller boxes. Aside from the 6x6x6 already mentioned, they carry a 11 3/4x8x4 3/4 that I use for small sets like battle packs, Freeing Dobby, 2012 Holiday Set, etc. If you put the set in the box, and fill the void with a few bubble packets, you can usually keep the weight of those small sets to 13oz or below. As far as Minecraft in the 6x6x6 Walmart box, I will second that. That is what I shipped all mine in padded with bubble wrap, and had great feedback.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654

    I have my local boxing supplier price match uline and pick it up at will call. I am guessing most suppliers in your local cities would be happy to do the same...call them and ask.

    Aren't you in Southern Cal? For some reason, that is in my head.

    I tried The Box Zone in Orange County and they quoted me $1.62 for a quantity of 100. They have price matching advertised on their website so I called and asked them to match Uline at $1.18. He said the best he could do is $1.32. "What does the price match advertisement on the website mean?", I asked. Guy said "I don't know, you'll have to ask the owner and he isn't around."
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    No I am in Oregon. Maybe the Box Zone is buying from Uline lol?
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    @dougts
    You there is a code for free shipping over $300. Do you happen to have that code, and know when it is valid until?
  • UKtsumiUKtsumi Member Posts: 630
    can we stick to topic please.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ ok, get us back on track!
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Ok, I will start it back up. Do you guys think the Death Star is going EOL?
    Brickbasey2joshCam_n_Stu
  • tk79tk79 Member Posts: 329
    @FatMatt here you go:

    DQUL1Z

    http://www.retailmenot.com/s/u-line

    To keep this on topic, I don't see this code getting discontinued very soon. If it does, they'll probably come out with a new version soon after.
  • UKtsumiUKtsumi Member Posts: 630
    edited November 2012
    No, but lets start a rumour that it is, then hopefully it will clear [email protected] out before Christmas and I can sell my copy that's been gathering dust since 2009!
    FollowsClosely
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    @tk79
    Thank you.
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693
    edited November 2012
    There is zero reason to discontinue a large flagship set with universal appeal to child and adult collectors like the Death Star. I honestly will not be surprised if it's still available in 2015 and beyond.

    While rare, it's not unheard of. Train set #4565 was introduced in 1996 and lasted until 2003-04 or so.
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367
    I know plenty of people are banking on the DS going away eventually, but it would be fun if they got like 10 years out of that thing. Maybe then I could finally get around to picking one up.

    A little post-Christmas clearance strategizing then...what do people see as the most likely sets to be clearanced that will actually be worth picking up?
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    gmpirate said:

    Ok, I will start it back up. Do you guys think the Death Star is going EOL?

    Not until TLG creates another SW set with as many (or more) minifigs.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,181
    Ma1234 said:

    There is zero reason to discontinue a large flagship set with universal appeal to child and adult collectors like the Death Star. I honestly will not be surprised if it's still available in 2015 and beyond...

    But how long can the price point stay at $400? IT is drastically under priced compared to other large star wars sets.

  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Well I am hoping they replace the Death Star playset with another epic playset (Cloud city fingers crossed). Until I hear rumours of another big SW playset I am going to assume the Death Star will hang around.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    Out of curiosity, has anyone purchased the Death Star more recently? I'm just curious to know if they've updated the minifigs or if they're still way out of date. It just doesn't seem like they'd continue to print all the old parts for the minifigs when so many have been updated since the Death Star came out.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,258
    ^Can you imagine the panic that thought provokes in Inventory Admin?

    And papermart.com is great for small purchases of various size boxes. They're more expensive than ULine but handy for smaller volume sellers.
  • ptericpteric Member Posts: 156
    do a search on craigslist for boxes, I just moved and got a truckload of moving boxes free
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    But how long can the price point stay at $400? IT is drastically under priced compared to other large star wars sets.

    This point does not get enough conversation in my opinion.

    Compare the content of DS to JP or most of the new 2012/13 SW sets. The number of parts, the weight of the parts, the number of minifigs, and really DS is becoming more of a bargin every day.

    At some point, LEGO could replace it with something new at a higher price point and sell a lot more of them because it is new, at 20% higher margin.

    Not that I want to give them any ideas. ;)
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