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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • tk79tk79 Member Posts: 329
    ^- Did your trains ship? Mine already show in transit, stock count seems to have been correct.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    My trains have not yet shipped, we shall see... :(

    Might be because I bought so many of them, they might have held my orders back to fraud check, so I might end up "last in line", in which case I might miss out.

    Oh well, I'll live. :)
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    My trains have not yet shipped, we shall see... :(

    Might be because I bought so many of them, they might have held my orders back to fraud check, so I might end up "last in line", in which case I might miss out.

    Oh well, I'll live. :)
    And just think, when the starting pistol fires on Dec 24 or whenever Lego.com opens up the big sales, how much of what we buy will get put on hold or canceled. It'll probably get ugly I guess, as do most of the high discount opportunities...
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    I received one of my trains and yellow LEGO trucks yesterday. I have a batch of 6 trucks still pending.
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    Just received 4 Emerald Nights from Target, after having 2 come in the mail yesterday from Amazon. The Target boxes were HUGE with tons of empty space. I had ordered each separately, so it was 4 boxes total.
  • allmybricksallmybricks Member Posts: 156
    Interestingly, my EN orders from Amazon came in today. They combined 2 different orders placed about ~24 hours apart into 1 box. All came in pristine. I only got 3... all to build! ;-)
  • kylejohnson11kylejohnson11 Member Posts: 508
    @allmybricks very nice! I'd love to see a picture with all of the carriages behind the engine.
  • DavidRod8DavidRod8 Member Posts: 143
    I'm expecting my 4 London bridges today.... No sign of trains yet
  • dsdg88dsdg88 Member Posts: 133
    On Monday I received notice from LEGOshop.com that the 10195 (AT-OT) that I'd ordered late Black Friday weekend was canceled. :(
    I called my local Lego store and they are also out and don't expect any more.
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    @DavidRod8 4 London Bridges! That is what I love about this forum, it makes what I buy seem normal. (2 london bridges arrived earlier in the week) :)

    @dsdg88 I received my AT-OT from LEGOshop.com and ordered about the same time as you. Sorry to hear that. From what I understand, LEGO has a lot of stock of these in stores. I expect these to be part of the 50% sale on Dec 26th. I'd pick up at least 2 more at 50% off. Maybe more. Well, okay... definitely more. :)
    -Dan
  • dsdg88dsdg88 Member Posts: 133
    @brickupdate: I'd been hoping for a 50% off deal on 10195 but with the 25% + 10% BF sale (+ 10% shopdiscover) I figured that was good enough and I didn't want to miss out completely.

    I'll try to get to my Lego store on the 26th (although it sounds like they won't have the 10195) if I can convince my wife and kids to delay our ski vacation by a few hours.

    Another funny thing: just after I received the order cancellation notice I went to [email protected] and the item was listed as "Call ...". A few hours later it switched to "Sold Out".
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    My local Lego store sold out of 10195 over Brick Friday Weekend... They had 4 left, I bought 2 of them, left the other 2 there. While I was standing there, a mom bought 1 of them for her kid, made me glad I wasn't a hog about it. Plenty of other stuff to buy. :)

    They haven't gotten any since and won't, they are history... Oh well, they were over priced even at 25% off. ;)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,167
    10195 is neat and I have a few, but the one thing is no major characters in it so not sure how sought after it will be, but still a neat set.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,167
    @brickupdate:

    Another funny thing: just after I received the order cancellation notice I went to [email protected] and the item was listed as "Call ...". A few hours later it switched to "Sold Out".
    I called once for an item that was listed for call for availability, the LEGO rep sounded frustrated saying"Why do they do that? We have no more of those" So the site is not always accurate.

  • DavidRod8DavidRod8 Member Posts: 143
    @brickupdate we all feel normal compared to @legofantexas but I'll give him a run for his money next weekend. Hoping to load up on those sales... Apparently only 3 of the 4 bridges came in today, tru was shipping from Dif warehouses...

    I'm hoping that other retailers also have sales going on after Xmas, although they seem pretty empty already. I would rather concentrate on getting better deals for the larger sets...
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    The people buying at $149 don't know or probably care what they cost a week ago. There are plenty of people who don't see that amount as huge, they just want what they want.
    As hard as it may be to believe, there may even be some speculators at the $150 range for the EN. That indicates a solid floor at $150 and that the price is very likely to go higher. It really shouldn't be surprising since this particular set is one of the very best that TLG has produced.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited December 2011
    I'm expecting my 4 London bridges today.... No sign of trains yet
    Are you building a 1:1 scale London Bridge or something? One set is a lot, but you are talking about some serious legos.

    The London Bridge may not be the most popular set out there, but I hope to have a couple set aside (hopefully purchased at sales prices) when it is EOL'd. I believe that one may go 4X on price when it's gone.
  • MinifigsMeMinifigsMe Member Posts: 2,844
    Sorry to be a pedant, but it's Tower Bridge, London Bridge would be a pretty dull build indeed! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Bridge
  • brickmaticbrickmatic Member Posts: 1,071
    Ah, saying London Bridge instead of Tower Bridge -- like telling an Australian that you love their British accent and asking what part of London they are from.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    PotC sets may be a sleeper; especially if many are EOL'd after Christmas. They remind me a bit of the IJ (Indiana Jones) sets a couple years back, which have done okay in the secondary markets. I expect another PotC movie in a couple years (cash cow for Disney), and these sets would be worth a lot more when that occurs. Plus the fact that they are...well...pirates ('nuff said).

    The PotC ships are relatively fresh, but many sets were released in early 2011 and could go. Furthermore, look at how other Disney Lego releases have fared. PoP is still on shelves (yawn), TS is dragging out (decent), and Cars can't be doing well (yuck). I think TLG is learning that the shelf live on movie-related Legos just isn't great (SW aside).

    In short, these Disney movie lego sets will be sale fodder in a couple weeks.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited December 2011
    @brickmatic and @Savage_Steel - Oops...my bad and my apologies. My wife's uncle is from GB and lives about 40 miles from us. I would never hear the end of it (hence the Brickset pseudo-name to protect the guilty...in this case me).

    As a related comment on a Lego item that recently sold out, my wife and I purchased a bunch of the Series 5 British Guard MFs to give him for Christmas. I have a ton of magnets, so we plan to give him those with the MFs so he can attach them to his refrigerator. That particular MF is one of our favorite (or as they say in GB, favourite) series MFs.
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,831
    ^ BM + FJ........lol. :o)
  • DavidRod8DavidRod8 Member Posts: 143
    Sorry, should know better.... Been there many times and always confuse it....

    Not trying to build a 1:1 version of it, I just grab them at an excellent price... So in total I have 5 now (the other one is on the to be built pile) although I gotta say Im disappoint in the size... I love the size of the Eiffel tower
  • MinifigsMeMinifigsMe Member Posts: 2,844
    Don't worry loads of Brits call it that too! At least TLG got it right! :)
  • coolpixcoolpix Member Posts: 357
    I don't remember if it was mentioned on this awesome thread, but It looks like the Kingdom's Castle is EOL as well. Went again to my Local LEGO store (I happened to be on the same mall doing something else today, and I thought "what the heck!" and went there once more.) anyways, they don't have any castles in stock. Now, the Targets and TRUs around me still have at least 2 of these in stock right now, but I am not sure if I should pick one up now at RRP, or wait for a sale, since it seems that these are not moving well at the stores...
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    @brickupdate we all feel normal compared to @legofantexas but I'll give him a run for his money next weekend. Hoping to load up on those sales... Apparently only 3 of the 4 bridges came in today, tru was shipping from Dif warehouses...

    I'm hoping that other retailers also have sales going on after Xmas, although they seem pretty empty already. I would rather concentrate on getting better deals for the larger sets...
    We all love LegoFanTexas - dude, you're like a little reality show for all of us Lego geeks. But we all know there are plenty more like him with budgets 10 times the size. They just watch and read, but never post.

    I do appreciate all the honesty on the forum. It is something that is very cool.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I saw Kingdom's Castle sets at both WMT and TGT. Also saw a Hogwarts Express train. All were at SRP (suggested retail price).

    On a related note, last year WMT had sets that were not officially listed as on sale, but were market down 50% at the scanner. It's always a good idea to check prices on sets that Lego has discontinued at the scanners to see as you might have an opportunity to get an awesome deal even though the tags with the sets say otherwise.

    WMT is a great place for Lego at time. I know I picked up some mid-scale SW M-Falcons and Star Destroyers for less than $20. The M-Falcons have gone up nicely, but it's easy to pick up a mid-scale Star Destroyer for less than Lego's SRP.
  • ViereViere Member Posts: 12
    Not sure if this has been mentioned before , but Emerald Night is on backorder.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited December 2011
    We all love LegoFanTexas - dude, you're like a little reality show for all of us Lego geeks. But we all know there are plenty more like him with budgets 10 times the size. They just watch and read, but never post.
    Okay...I am going to side track the conversation briefly here, but hopefully it's not as disappointing as Lego's flexible tracks though... sorry for the dumb humor. Something that's really been bothering me is the fact that @LegoFanTexas does not have a Brickset avatar. I mean, it's almost sacrilege. Does this bother anyone else???

    Perhaps we should have an official vote on what @LegoFanTexas's avatar should be. I suggest an image of a storefront for a Lego B&M store as he likely has more Legos than they do and undoubtedly a much better selection. ;-)
  • dremel99dremel99 Member Posts: 123
    Not sure if this has been mentioned before , but Emerald Night is on backorder.
    So I see that it is listed as having Jan. ship date, so this means it is coming back??
  • dremel99dremel99 Member Posts: 123
    That prob. wouldn't make LFT very happy.
  • ViereViere Member Posts: 12
    Not sure if this has been mentioned before , but Emerald Night is on backorder.
    So I see that it is listed as having Jan. ship date, so this means it is coming back??
    Yes , it seems that the previously made joke may be real afterall...
  • dremel99dremel99 Member Posts: 123
    It is still listed on Amazon as Discontinued by Manufacturer but that doesn;t mean much.
  • ViereViere Member Posts: 12
    It is still listed on Amazon as Discontinued by Manufacturer but that doesn;t mean much.
    Could be that TLG only sell the leftovers/previously canceled orders then
  • coolpixcoolpix Member Posts: 357
    @Farmer_John can you give us an example of a set that was at 50%? There may be a pattern on sets that will go for that price across the country, and my local WMT stores may have them on the same kind of deal. I'd love a King's castle for 50% off right now!
  • tk79tk79 Member Posts: 329
    Not sure if this has been mentioned before , but Emerald Night is on backorder.
    hmmm, interesting!
  • BTHodgemanBTHodgeman Member Posts: 622
    edited December 2011
    @coolpix - I've found little consistency on Walmart's clearance strategy. It is believed to be a function of how much "shrinkage" (read: theft and/or missing products) that given store had in the previous year. Allegedly, each store is given a "clearance budget," which is higher when shrinkage is low.

    When products reach EOL, it is fair to say that they will be put on clearance (at some point), but there is no structure like at Target (10/30/50/75/90).

    It gets more complicated though: certain items are "traited" for certain categories of stores. If an item becomes "not traited" at a certain store, it is more likely for that item to be clearanced to make room for the other items that are in that store's modular plans (shelf-design documents). (Take Quiddich Match. Some Walmart stores clearanced this set for $5 in Sept/Oct, while it remained full-price at others.)

    Hope this didn't confuse things even more!

    Brent
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    The people buying at $149 don't know or probably care what they cost a week ago. There are plenty of people who don't see that amount as huge, they just want what they want.

    I have no doubt that EN will go for over $200 at some point, $300 is not out of the question.
    Probably true. Regardless, this should be enough to fund most of my early-2012 Star Wars purchases, so I'm pretty okay with the $149. I would like to, at some point, develop a model where I have both short term and long term investments in hand, but I suppose I'm too impatient for that to be very likely any time soon.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    @Farmer_John can you give us an example of a set that was at 50%? There may be a pattern on sets that will go for that price across the country, and my local WMT stores may have them on the same kind of deal. I'd love a King's castle for 50% off right now!
    The sets I saw at our local stores were PoP, Toy Story, and Bionicle/Hero Factory. To be honest, I don't know why but I didn't check the larger sets. Perhaps because my wife was with me and I didn't want to have my butt handed to me on a platter in front of a bunch of strangers.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Even if I saw Hero Factory small sets for under $5 at Wal-Mart clearance, I'd still pass. Although, they'll probably end up going for $300 in 10 years like sealed 8534 Tahu (1st series Bionicle).
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,167
    edited December 2011
    Not sure if this has been mentioned before , but Emerald Night is on backorder.
    So I see that it is listed as having Jan. ship date, so this means it is coming back??
    Yes , it seems that the previously made joke may be real afterall...

    Well again the speculating may be a double-edged sword if people are buying massive amounts of a certain LEGO set that LEGO may be getting requests to get more out there.
    Guess we'll know on Jan 7th...
  • kylejohnson11kylejohnson11 Member Posts: 508
    @madforlegos we may know before on Boxing Day if the Emerald Night gets dropped to 50% off or not. I'm guessing that will be a good indicator.
  • dremel99dremel99 Member Posts: 123
    Well if Emerald Night doesn't retire then Imperial Flagship could be back also. Doesn't look like Lego is predictable about when a set retires, compared to the past. Death Star doesn't look like it will retire anytime soon and EM may be around for another year or two also. If that is the case there will prob. be a lot of returns of EM.

    Maybe this is TLG's way of saying to AFOL and speculators that we don't like the hoarding of sets.
  • Bosstone100Bosstone100 USAMember Posts: 1,434
    If Lego is only looking at sales to determine whether a set comes back, then all the speculators are actually going to cause the set to stick around.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,167
    If Lego is only looking at sales to determine whether a set comes back, then all the speculators are actually going to cause the set to stick around.
    I think is a good meaning of the term Irony?
  • coolpixcoolpix Member Posts: 357
    @Bosstone100 That was my theory from the beginning. When people were freaking out on the DS 10188, I was the first to say that probably the rise in sales with the set at full retail price would cause it to stick around for longer, because someone at TLG would think: "Top dollar item, rise in sales before Xmas, then it's a WINNER! Let's keep it for another year!".

    Emerald Night is another fine example. After a poor year in sales, It sold well during Brick Friday when you could buy it for $68+ with all discounts applied (I bought only one), but not enough to have a sell-out. However, in the past week or so it sold really well at full price! What do you think Target, Amazon and the other retailers will do when they see a hot item selling like that? Order more! That would prolong the life of the set, even if it's for a few months.

    So, yes, I believe the speculators are making the sets stick for longer. If all speculators would wait until the set is on clearance, then it would be safe to assume it would retire. That's what will happen with Obi-Wan's Starfighter. It's discounted, and nobody is buying it. Expect it to be 50% off after Xmas and EOL after that.

    Whoever saw the "National Geographic Megafactories - LEGO" documentary knows that the LEGO factory in Billund is setup in a way that, in the event that demand for a certain set rises, production can be adjusted on the fly to make more of these sets to meet the demand, and in a matter of a few days, pallets of these sets would be ready to ship to the US and other markets, by plane. If you haven't seen this documentary, I really recommend. It explains a lot.
  • coolpixcoolpix Member Posts: 357
    @BTHodgeman Yes, I know that Wal-Mart has zero consistency, but that information that Shrinkage has a part on how many items the store will be allowed to have on clearance I've never knew, and it makes a lot of sense. It explains why all of the 7 stores in a 15 mile radius from my home have different items on clearance during the year.

    One thing I did the other day: They had a small Atlantis set on clearance in a store for $4.00. Only 3 of them. All other stores had it at the SRP of $9.99. What I did? I bought a bunch of sets for $9.99 and returned them at the store that was clearing them out for $4.00. I was able to buy them back for $4.00 almost immediately, saving $5.99 per set! A lot of work, but it paid off to know that's possible to do, if you have plenty stores around with different items on clearance. This works at Target too, just be careful when returning at Target, because if the item is marked as NCF, or does not show up on the store's inventory anymore, you may not be able to buy it back.
  • andystarandystar Member Posts: 275
    edited December 2011
    Emerald Night can be ordered from [email protected] with ship date of Jan 7th.

    Kind of strange for Lego to bring Emerald Night back. I would sympathize with those who ordered it on Black Friday only to have their order cancelled because they "Sold Out" that day and have since bought it from another seller (Target/Amazon/etc) at a higher price.

    I would be nice if Lego would give buyers the option of accepting delivery at a later date or cancelling their order for items that go OOS but are still in production.
  • coolpixcoolpix Member Posts: 357
    @Farmer_John I went grocery shopping at Walmart tonight, and checked several PotC and Harry Potter sets (my best bet for a clearance at this store, since the have zero PoP and Toy Story by now), but they were all RRP. This store is selling well this December, and I don't think they'll put anything on clearance before the 26th.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited December 2011
    Emerald Night is another fine example. After a poor year in sales, It sold well during Brick Friday when you could buy it for $68+ with all discounts applied (I bought only one), but not enough to have a sell-out. However, in the past week or so it sold really well at full price! What do you think Target, Amazon and the other retailers will do when they see a hot item selling like that? Order more! That would prolong the life of the set, even if it's for a few months.
    I'm not trying to pick on @coolpix, but wanted to use his comments to make a few additional points:

    1) I doubt very much if a multi-million dollar company with global-reach like Lego is worried about shafting AFOLs. In this economy, the bottom-line is the bottom-line and a buck is a buck (whether from hoarders or builders).

    2) Good companies (and I expect that Lego is one) typically don't make strategic decisions based on tactical sales data. If the EN had "a poor year in sales," then why would they continue to sell it? If the market was soft, why would they believe it would magically become solid based on EOY sales. Add to that the fact that there are now thousands available in the secondary market that they now have to compete with? It doesn't make business sense on any level. Either they planned to keep the EN originally or they found several more pallets to sell and still plan to EOL it in the near future. I'm not buying that Lego is changing their minds or just playing games...they're too big and too smart to waste time on that.

    3) I believe the worst case scenario is that people who bought sets to resell will have some stranded capital for another year at most. Lego has too many train sets (EN, RCT, CT, PT, MT) going simultaneously, and there's no doubt that one set cannibalizes the others. Add to that the fact that TLG's infrastructure accessories (specifically, the tracks) are poor at best, and I see at least two of the listed sets going away. My bet is that the oldest (EN) will be one of them.

    Disclaimer - I do own a couple extra ENs that I purchased on BF for 25% off plus 10% off. I purchased at a good price and am not swimming in them by any stretch, but would gladly pick up more sets at the price I got mine at.
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