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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654

    Couple of things.

    I've bought a lot of LEGO product since Jan 12 and this is my first time really going through a holiday season and keeping up with the deals. My local LEGO store has invited me to a VIP event this Friday claiming I will get in early to the BF offers. Does this mean I have access to purchase anything at 25% off? Are there better offers on particular sets, or is the standard cut 25% across the board?

    Also, Amazon will be getting Minecraft on Dec 15. I ordered one from there the last time they were in stock and they ended up overselling them. They have been contacting those buyers and letting them know that their order will ship on Dec 15. Because of this, I expect they'll get some in stock at the same time. May be a little too close to Christmas for any of you to flip, but you could buy and hold for the long term as I expect this will continue to do quite well.

    Thanks for the heads up on the 15th!

    And to BF. I don't believe Lego has publicly stated what the discount will be yet but yes, it has been 25% in the past. The discount will be available for the special VIP event and the discount will be to select sets -- usually ones going EOL.

    I'd put a lot of money on HP being discounted as most of the stores have currently pulled the inventory to the back for the event. I also expect to see Cars, PotC and for sure some SW sets. I'd be really surprised to see MMV and Maersk in the store, however. Just from talking with the different managers I know they don't have all their sets on display (but in the back) and feel pretty confident those two sets will not be available in store. I suppose we could put IS in that same category as well. Just me feeling on those three . . .
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Minecraft is definitely not a xmas gifty set.

    Not sure if the set's been under-produced, or the demand is really that high. I don't think I've ever seen an "active" set sell so high in the aftermarket in between restocks.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    edited November 2012
    prevere said:

    Minecraft is definitely not a xmas gifty set.

    Not sure if the set's been under-produced, or the demand is really that high. I don't think I've ever seen an "active" set sell so high in the aftermarket in between restocks.

    The problem with Minecraft is that the resellers are actually managing to exacerbate a shortage that already exists, which usually doesn't happen with LEGO. So in addition to the people that actually want the set, you also have a large number of people (even people on this board who admit they don't usually resell) buying them up to make a quick profit. It's one of the rare cases in LEGO where I believe that resellers actually ARE preventing more people from being able to get the set.

    That said, it's obviously not completely resellers who are to blame here, as they likely wouldn't care at all (at this point) had TLG not so (seemingly at least) grossly underestimated the demand for this set.
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    Basic supply and demand. Highly sought scarce items increase in values. Many retailers put a limit on how many a customer can buy, yet they are still out of stock in less than an hour. In December, TLG would be smart to double their production of Minecraft

    Speaking of acquiring more of Minecraft, does anyone know how strict [email protected] enforces the 1 per household limit ? Can one ever buy another copy of Minecraft from [email protected] using the same account once they buy 1 ? At other online retailers the limit lapses over time.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    ^The lapse is about one week for Amazon.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    8043 showing sold out at [email protected]
    itsnotme
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    Basic supply and demand. Highly sought scarce items increase in values. Many retailers put a limit on how many a customer can buy, yet they are still out of stock in less than an hour. In December, TLG would be smart to double their production of Minecraft

    Speaking of acquiring more of Minecraft, does anyone know how strict [email protected] enforces the 1 per household limit ? Can one ever buy another copy of Minecraft from [email protected] using the same account once they buy 1 ? At other online retailers the limit lapses over time.

    Amazon had 800 in stock a few weeks ago, limit 1 per customer, sold out in a few hours.

    [email protected] is very strict with their 1 per limit, they canceled the additional orders this time around.

    They still sold out in 1 day.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Surprised how fast 4841 went up, considering it wasn't much of a train.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    edited November 2012
    ^ it's Harry potter. $$$
    No brainer of the century.
  • lulwutlulwut Member Posts: 417
    Are those sold ebay listings for The Burrow real? It's insane how fast that set jumped up within a year.
  • cbaker1974cbaker1974 Member Posts: 150
    lulwut said:

    Are those sold ebay listings for The Burrow real? It's insane how fast that set jumped up within a year.

    Yeah, I have sold a few of them over the past few weeks. Walmart had them for 30 bucks after Christmas last year and I picked up several. I thought it would do pretty well, as it has a lot of cool details and nice minfigs.

  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    Yea, I think about six months ago the Burrow could be found for around $40.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    I know it's HP, but I can't see the Castle jumping in price that fast. I guess we'll see.
  • TitusTitus Member Posts: 79
    I'm bummed I missed out on the Burrow. My son just started reading Harry potter a few months ago and I've been picking up sets on sale when I can but The Burrow is one I know he'd like but is probably not in the cards. :(
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,167
    gmpirate said:

    Couple of things.

    I've bought a lot of LEGO product since Jan 12 and this is my first time really going through a holiday season and keeping up with the deals. My local LEGO store has invited me to a VIP event this Friday claiming I will get in early to the BF offers. Does this mean I have access to purchase anything at 25% off? Are there better offers on particular sets, or is the standard cut 25% across the board?

    Also, Amazon will be getting Minecraft on Dec 15. I ordered one from there the last time they were in stock and they ended up overselling them. They have been contacting those buyers and letting them know that their order will ship on Dec 15. Because of this, I expect they'll get some in stock at the same time. May be a little too close to Christmas for any of you to flip, but you could buy and hold for the long term as I expect this will continue to do quite well.

    Thanks for the heads up on the 15th!

    And to BF. I don't believe Lego has publicly stated what the discount will be yet but yes, it has been 25% in the past. The discount will be available for the special VIP event and the discount will be to select sets -- usually ones going EOL.

    I'd put a lot of money on HP being discounted as most of the stores have currently pulled the inventory to the back for the event. I also expect to see Cars, PotC and for sure some SW sets. I'd be really surprised to see MMV and Maersk in the store, however. Just from talking with the different managers I know they don't have all their sets on display (but in the back) and feel pretty confident those two sets will not be available in store. I suppose we could put IS in that same category as well. Just me feeling on those three . . .
    I would like to know where this rumor of 25% for BF sales sets is for this pre BF VIP event. Im pretty sure that BF sale prices were not found at the pre BF VIP sales last year (otherwise I would have bought a lot more, as well as others Im sure who have, at the sale at the store I went to)

    At the pre VIP BF deal last year you get a Pick a brick gift Box, a chance to get the holiday set, but I believe you still have to buy 100 dollars in product to get it, and you get a scratch card that could get you 50% off, but you will most likely get either 10% percent off or a slightly higher chance to get 20% off.

    I believe the BF deals of 20-25% off on certain sets only took effect on Black Friday last year and I have not seen anything in this VIP Pre BF event to show differently.

  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    YMMV :P

    Some stores have said as much. Maybe it will be true or maybe it won't. No crowds to fight for a "pre-event" so I will go.
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    Last year the 25% deals did not start until BF. Emerald Night for example was only 10% off at the Pre-BF event.
  • DaddyDeuceDaddyDeuce Member Posts: 272

    In December, TLG would be smart to double their production of Minecraft.

    I thought all CUUSOO sets were intended to be very limited editions. Why would LEGO produce any more than they already have?

  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    edited November 2012

    I thought all CUUSOO sets were intended to be very limited editions. Why would LEGO produce any more than they already have?

    To appease thousands of Minecraft fans and family who call the stores everyday asking if they have it in stock...
    To fulfill the demands from retailers who get calls everyday about LEGO Minecraft..
    To gain new fans among the Minecraft crowds..
    To show that they can do whatever they want with their Limited Edition properties...
    To make money...
    etc

    What would be the reasons for not producing more ?

  • kim43235kim43235 Member Posts: 165
    I've got an email for VIP invitation for tomorrow (Friday) but it says it's valid online only. I think I read some of you would visit the store. Which one is true?
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    ^The in-store event is by invite only.
  • kim43235kim43235 Member Posts: 165

    Couple of things.

    I've bought a lot of LEGO product since Jan 12 and this is my first time really going through a holiday season and keeping up with the deals. My local LEGO store has invited me to a VIP event this Friday claiming I will get in early to the BF offers. Does this mean I have access to purchase anything at 25% off? Are there better offers on particular sets, or is the standard cut 25% across the board?

    Also, Amazon will be getting Minecraft on Dec 15. I ordered one from there the last time they were in stock and they ended up overselling them. They have been contacting those buyers and letting them know that their order will ship on Dec 15. Because of this, I expect they'll get some in stock at the same time. May be a little too close to Christmas for any of you to flip, but you could buy and hold for the long term as I expect this will continue to do quite well.

    We are almost in the same boat. I also started to collect Legos early this year. Very nervous about this BF and Christmas sales as I do not want to miss any good deals!
  • kim43235kim43235 Member Posts: 165
    FatMatt said:

    ^The in-store event is by invite only.

    Oh, I see. My email actually for Saturday, not Friday which is today. My mistake..
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,167
    4432 Garbage truck is now listed as call to check for product availability
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    Maersk listed as Sold Out in US at the moment.
    FollowsClosely
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    FatMatt said:

    Maersk listed as Sold Out in US at the moment.

    Something tells me that finding great deals on Black Friday is going to be tough. If it is all sold out before the day comes, then what is for sale?

    Hopefully TLG understands that they have to have something on sale to make it Black Friday.
    sadowsk1rocao
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I hope so.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    I am still hoping MMV and IS get discounted on BF.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    MMV is a great set, but I think IS will be a better investment. The fact that it is more expensive and it is a licensed theme set. Also, from what I have read, a lot of people are finding mint boxes hard to come by. We all know there are collectors that will pay a premium for a mint box.
  • Steve_J_OMSteve_J_OM IrelandMember Posts: 966
    IS is showing as 'call for availability' for me on [email protected]
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    IS is showing as available for me. The problem with IS is the high price point. I can move $100 sets for $200 all day long. Selling a number of $260 sets for $520 is alot more challenging. That being said IS is a great set and I will keep some onhand, just not as many as certain other sets.
    LegoFanTexas
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    edited November 2012
    Ok, but please tell us from what country. I'm always getting freaked out when someone posts "IS is SOLD OUT at [email protected]" and I look and it is not for me in the US.

    In fact I implore you :)
    BumblepantsCam_n_StuTitusLegoFanTexas
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    To stem the stateside panic:

    http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Imperial-Shuttle-10212

    Available Now.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Well I grabbed some more 10212 just to be on the safe side before it goes EOL. Will grab some more on BF if it is not sold out and hopefully at a deeper discount.
  • Steve_J_OMSteve_J_OM IrelandMember Posts: 966
    Oops, sorry for the panic guys, my bad. I'm in Europe.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,167
    Maersk is Sold out like noted above. Technic Excavator is sold out as well.. MMV may or may not last though this pre BF sale day, but I think the Reg Cargo train may be on sale I'm guessing for about 130, Bank on sale for about $40.
    I'm guessing there will be licensed sets on sale as well. Probably going to see them trying to rid themselves of HP and PoTC (whats left).
    LEGO is not really doing this for BF, they usually do it to clear out existing stock that they no longer want in prep for the new years line. So While it would be nice to see some expensive set and at insane price I think LEGO is feeling that the 'gifts' they give out now for VIPs (10% off of 149, free holiday set @99) is what you will get.
    I still am holding out hope that FB is put up for 20% off to clear them out, but that is a long shot at best..
    I will say that usually LEGO seems to have some 'surprise' set that they throw on sale, whether to clear it out, or just have an item out there.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited November 2012
    ^I agree...TLG will toss in at least a few good sets at good prices to motivate buyers. If they don't, people may start (to some degree) ignoring their BF sales and that can kill sales this time of year.

    I agree with a previous poster that stated some of the licensed themes will be cleared out including HP and PoTC. I think Cars may be on the list too...

    Personally, I'm not feeling all that amped up about the BF sale this year. I plan to check out the sales; however, I will be very, very picky on what I actually purchase.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654

    ^I agree...TLG will toss in at least a few good sets at good prices to motivate buyers. If they don't, people may start (to some degree) ignoring their BF sales and that can kill sales this time of year.

    I agree with a previous poster that stated some of the licensed themes will be cleared out including HP and PoTC. I think Cars may be on the list too...

    Yep, they are currently in the back room.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,167
    So... Are the LEGO City Mine sets already due to discontinue? The 4202 Dump truck is listed on LEGO's site for 'call to check product availability',
    Same with the Ambulance, Tipper truck, and Garbage truck.

    I have seen these like this in the past, where they eventually come back, but not sure what to make of this.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    edited November 2012
    ^I guess that depends largely on what plans are for City 2013. Anybody know?

    EDIT: http://www.brickset.com/browse/themes/?year=2013&theme=city

    So depending on the slated release (Jan I believe) the Miners theme could be whittled away already.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    "call to check product availability" doesn't necessarily mean anything . . .
  • spacefan6901spacefan6901 Member Posts: 17
    I always thought "call to check product availability" meant they know they have very low stock on hand, but if they look WAAAY in the back maybe there is another pallet somewhere. Although the usual result seems a few days later it changes to "sold out."

    Although I'd think business sense would dictate with the apparent demand for the mining sets they'd make another production run, even if it is not ready before Christmas.

    (Going to have to try to get some more Forest Police before they go; they make great "Smokeys" (state highway police) with the broad hats.)
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693
    LEGO is simply being smart and not taking back orders it isn't confident it can fill for Christmas.

    Mining isn't discontinued, nor is any of the new-for-2012 city lines. The only sets that might be on the way out are the store-exclusives which often do have unpredictable shelf lives.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,167
    I understand, like I noted about, that this does not always mean it will be permanently gone I think the Pig farms, and IF proved that. I dunno now with LEGO lately you never know. Seeing as Recycle truck is sold out I doubt it is coming back.. Now, that was an exclusive and it seems that, at least for City exclusives at Walmart, there seems to be a short shelf life (as evidenced by #3225) , but I would find it weird if the 2012 city sets were already gone, but would not put it past LEGO at this point..
    All Im saying is if you wanted one now may be the time to grab a set (tipper truck, garbage truck, etc)
    Heck maybe that is another marketing ploy to get people to buy sets off the shelf at LEGO stores, who knows.
    I just remember that the last large dump truck made by LEGO sold out fairly quick and was no longer made.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    What are the current feelings on DA with everyone? Some say it's to be retired end of this year. My store (CLE) said they weren't getting any more in.

    Personally, I think this will be available in 2013.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited November 2012
    ^ Licensed sets like HP are all about the terms of the licensing agreements. If the other HP sets are going away, then DA is likely going too. It would seem strange to have an agreement for a single set going into another year while the rest are EOL'd. But agreements can state anything, can't they...
  • SiESiE Member Posts: 238
    Harry potter has already EOL'd in the uk. Get them quick.
    UKtsumi
  • beabea Member Posts: 227
    Do we know when Fire Temple is expected to be discontinued? Is it gone when the next wave of Ninjago comes out or will it hang around longer?
  • Penkid11Penkid11 Member Posts: 789
    ^Temple for Temple? Possibly. It's such a good parts pack, but in all honesty I see no reason why the Fire Temple is still out.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Boy, you're not kidding about the parts quality on that set. :)
    Thezoofox
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