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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Yep that was a very bleak assessment, and coming from a dyed in the wool liberal was very sobering. Tariffs anyone?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,167
    8043 Technic Excavator is now 'Call to check for product availability'
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444

    richo said:

    just to boost all my US pals on here and their economy; my gf bought me an ipad today. Not allowed it until xmas though. Looked at other tablets, but went with Apple in the end. Definitely some US success stories still going strong then!?

    Oh my....Apple. Jobs was a genius. You cannot fake genius. This company has never performed without him. The ipad is brilliant. This is probably their last great product....rehashes aren't going to cut it (are u listening TLG?). The economy is doing fine here under the circumstances. You cannot clean up a mess that took 8 years to create in just 4....but we are well on our way and far ahead of Europe.


    FDR got the US out of the "Great Depression" in his first 100 days.
  • ThezoofoxThezoofox United Kingdom - EastMember Posts: 188


    @doriansdad far ahead of Europe?! That's a huge generalization which is not entirely accurate.
  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,979
    Another toy brand I follow, they occasionally give heads up to adult collectors about items that are going to retire.
    It is never a whole list, but the items listed are to be retired.

    I anticipate Lego is doing the same thing. My assumption is that the items listed are going to be retired. Lego just gives these a bit of extra boost in sales before they go. There would be no reason to put HP on the list at this time. With Christmas approaching, those sets will continue to just sell themselves.
  • jasonord69ajasonord69a UKMember Posts: 447
    What is everyone's general opinion of how 10219 Maersk train will be doing in a few months time. As the set (uk at least) disappeared fairly quickly will that increase resale values as perhaps less people stocked up on them?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    Yep that was a very bleak assessment, and coming from a dyed in the wool liberal was very sobering. Tariffs anyone?

    The problem with Tariffs is that they cut both ways. You put them in place, so does the other side. It becomes a trade war.

    I actually give Obama credit for asking Steve Jobs the question, it is what I'd do if I were President, get input from all the various experts in business and labor and find solutions for everyone.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    Called the nearest Lego store today, the one I'm planning to camp at BF eve.
    0 #10212
    0 #10217
    0 #10219
    Many many FB and GE.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    edited November 2012
    Pitfall69 said:


    FDR got the US out of the "Great Depression" in his first 100 days.

    Not entirely true. WWII was the real catalyst. However there is no doubt his bills to provide massive spending on infrastructure helped.....Obama tried the same but got shot down by the usual suspects :(
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    edited November 2012
    How do politics become one of the rabbit trails of every thread on this forum involved with the reselling of Lego? No one is ever going to change anyone else's opinion when it comes to politics.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I don't know, but I sucked in again. Damn!!!
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444

    What is everyone's general opinion of how 10219 Maersk train will be doing in a few months time. As the set (uk at least) disappeared fairly quickly will that increase resale values as perhaps less people stocked up on them?

    There was a discussion about this and other trains in another thread. There were 2 sides. The Maersk train is more for AFOL's and may not do well because it lacks playability. Another side used past detailed trains as examples and the wild card factor would be the Maersk Blue.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    Pitfall69 said:


    FDR got the US out of the "Great Depression" in his first 100 days.

    Not entirely true. WWII was the real catalyst. However there is no doubt his bills to provide massive spending on infrastructure helped.....Obama tried the same but got shot down by the usual suspects :(
    Pitfall69 was joking... Yes, WWII got us out of the depression, most of FDR's programs were nice, but failed at making any real dent in the problems.

    The only reason FDR is fondly written about in history is that he led us through WWII. History would be quite different if he had left office before 1941.
    FollowsClosely
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    Called the nearest Lego store today, the one I'm planning to camp at BF eve.
    0 #10212
    0 #10217
    0 #10219
    Many many FB and GE.

    The three exclusives that you posted about, I think TLG has managed production well on, or even come up a bit short on.

    Those are going to do well aftermarket, in my humble opinion. But only to a point, they were never volume products, put them at 2x RRP and they become very slow sellers indeed.

    8043 has the same issue. Even at RRP it is not a fast seller. Nice set, one of the best LEGO has ever made, but just not a big seller. It does have a ton of power functions, but the part count is just a bit low all things considered. That the box feels so light doesn't help, and it is half empty doesn't help, but I guess you don't see the inside until after you buy it. :)
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    ^^Interesting Brickarmor.

    Not sure if anyone cares, but MMV is $90 on Amazon right now. The lowest it's ever been. Hard to tell if this will be on sale further on BF, but we all know this masterpiece is officially leaving us soon.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Now that we know MMV is leaving, I'm thinking about buying a few more...

    I already have what I consider to be "plenty", but in fairness, it is a great set with a great collection of parts.

    If anyone wants to dable in reselling, I'd think buying 2 of these to put in the closet for a few years would be a reasonably safe bet.

    Only time will tell of course. :)
  • Bosstone100Bosstone100 USAMember Posts: 1,434
    ^ Picked up an MMV last december for $70.99 on Amazon.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    That certainly is a super price. I was going by the last few months of the brickset graph. And I'm sure with TRU BOGO, a few fast trigger fingers got some for $50 or so.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,167
    Maersk train is 105 at Amazon.com in US
  • 12651265 The Great State of TexasMember Posts: 1,021
    ^^ Cheaper at [email protected] for VIP members.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    I'm am starting to wonder what the heck will actually be available to buy at the Lego stores at a discount on BF. It seems all of those due for EOL have long been absent from the shelves at my local store. This should be interesting, but probably disappointing.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Im hoping to find these $57 Helms Deep sets I keep hearing about.. I've put 2 together with 2 Urak Hai's, I'm trying to make a massive castle.
  • turtle1173turtle1173 Member Posts: 230
    Just found #10219 in my Amazon Gold Box and was able to pick a couple up for $99.75. Great deal.
  • pmercikpmercik Member Posts: 55
    It's seems that #10219 is gone from [email protected] UK for good. Its product page is gone.
  • GodspeedGodspeed Member Posts: 14
    edited November 2012
    Has there been any discussion about the post EOL predictions for the Minecraft set?
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,826
    ^ I imagine it will do well, given it's rise when out of stock.
  • jack_bricksjack_bricks Member Posts: 78
    Are there any further information about the Haunted House? Will it really discontinue so soon? The other thing is I'm a little unsure if I should go for another Maersk Train set, already have four of them. Worth it or rather go with a different set?
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    ^ There is no way the haunted house is retiring any time soon, regardless of what the rest of the MF theme does. That would be ridiculous. I don't know why anyone would think this.
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    ^ The Haunted House is no longer listed at ToysRUs.com. Dunno why in the world they would have carried it in the first place if it was for such a short run. Surely it's coming back.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,167
    sidersdd said:

    ^ The Haunted House is no longer listed at ToysRUs.com. Dunno why in the world they would have carried it in the first place if it was for such a short run. Surely it's coming back.

    Was it ever listed at TRU? Every time I searched for it it never appeared
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,167

    I'm am starting to wonder what the heck will actually be available to buy at the Lego stores at a discount on BF. It seems all of those due for EOL have long been absent from the shelves at my local store. This should be interesting, but probably disappointing.

    I think a hint is what is listed as 'retiring soon' at [email protected]
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432

    sidersdd said:

    ^ The Haunted House is no longer listed at ToysRUs.com. Dunno why in the world they would have carried it in the first place if it was for such a short run. Surely it's coming back.

    Was it ever listed at TRU? Every time I searched for it it never appeared
    Yep, somewhere around Oct.21 it was listed. Listed for $169.99 too.
    http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/comment/123477/#Comment_123477

    It disappeared a few days ago.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,167
    edited November 2012
    ^--- Thanks for the correction. Hmmm. Well I was thinking about picking another up on the VIP Pre BF sale anyways :-)
  • jack_bricksjack_bricks Member Posts: 78
    At lego it saiys "Out of stock, expected ship date 1 Dec 2012"
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432

    ^--- Thanks for the correction. Hmmm. Well I was thinking about picking another up on the VIP Pre BF sale anyways :-)

    Yep, same here.
  • avoiceoreasonavoiceoreason Member Posts: 224
    Sorry if this has been stated somewhere before, but is 10212 Imperial Shuttle definitely retiring this year or is this still just speculation?
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    So assuming this latest news on this new Legends castle line is accurate...
    Where do you think the value of the Kings' Castle 7946 goes upon release?
    Up? Down? Sideways? Discuss!
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432

    Sorry if this has been stated somewhere before, but is 10212 Imperial Shuttle definitely retiring this year or is this still just speculation?

    It's all speculation. Even the flumpboy report.
    http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/7185/legoboys-insight-into-sets-eol-in-2012-and-those-staying-on-for-2013
  • lulwutlulwut Member Posts: 417
    edited November 2012
    So how about that Minecraft set? Is it a fluke? It's been in stock again in the past month but still creeping up in price. Doesn't look like it's going to get another production. O_O
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    I think the Minecraft set is still in high demand. I can see this hitting the $100 mark again by Christmas if no new stock comes in.
  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,979
    I honestly would not be surprised to see the Haunted House disappear, but then come back for Halloween next year. Basically, a 'winter village' model of releasing around the holiday, would not surprise me. I know it is part of the Monster Fighter line, but it really comes across to me as a far more seasonal set. I just can't fathom that Lego would completely get rid of this set already, but could see the above model.

  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    I am curious to know how the veteran sellers in this forum handle your stocks of Minecraft. Assuming you ordered back in October (safe assumption based on the threads in Shopping section), do you:
    a. sell them now for $85+ (can be easily done on eBay), or
    b. hold on to them until closer to Christmas
    c. hold on to them for resell when EOL (whenever that is)
    ?
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    Renny said:

    I think the Minecraft set is still in high demand. I can see this hitting the $100 mark again by Christmas if no new stock comes in.

    Given that these were flying out the door for $150 during the first OOS crisis of 2012, the sky is the limit on these things once reseller stock starts to dwindle...

  • DaddyDeuceDaddyDeuce Member Posts: 272
    The lowest-price BIN Minecraft on eBay was $75 on the 9th. Five days later the lowest-price BIN is $87. This set is appreciating fast and my recommendation would be to sit on them if you have them.
  • thorniethornie Member Posts: 245
    Minecraft is the only set I have ever purchased for the sole purpose of reselling it for max profit. I'm hoping to clear over $100 for it.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    I sold both lots of 5 minecraft sets I had for $369 and $399 each. Perfectly happy with doubling my money in under 2 months. I'm sure higher returns are possible, but it is also possible that a huge shipment is enroute from LEGO at this moment. I'll take my money and run.
    BastaLegoFanTexasdragonhawk
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    edited November 2012
    pharmjod said:

    I sold both lots of 5 minecraft sets I had for $369 and $399 each. Perfectly happy with doubling my money in under 2 months. I'm sure higher returns are possible, but it is also possible that a huge shipment is enroute from LEGO at this moment. I'll take my money and run.

    I agree with this, I know in some other non Lego areas that I collect, the best time to sell is commonly early on. This is especially true these days with limited edition stuff. Get in while the going is good and the item is fresh in people's mind.

    I know with some limited mintage gold coins I purchased back in 07 & 08, They cost me between $290 & $320, I was able to sell these a few weeks later for $700. Now it is 4 to 5 years later and those same coins are selling for between $800 - $1000. Now coming close to tripling your investment in 5 years is still great, but I would rather take doubling my money in 5 weeks.

    At this point with the Minecraft set it looks like Lego will have another wave of these, that in it's self will probably knock a good percentage off the current secondary market sell price & could even bring it back to retail. Then you need to also ask, how many sets will Lego have for sale and how long will they be available for? If they over produce and keep selling them for years to come, it may take many more years, if at all, for you to see prices reach the current secondary market prices.

    Also you need to remember that just because something doubles in value in x years does not mean it will double again in xx years, Its not expediential.

    In this day and age where it seems as though every man and his dog is putting so called "Collectables" away in the cupboard for a rainy day, I do not think many things including most Lego will have the same kind of growth as has been seen in the past, so you may well be better off selling now. Just my 2c.

    Edit: Not that I don't think you could still make good money holding on to things for the long term, it just may not be the best use of your capital.
    pharmjod
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367
    Did not realize they had spike that high again. I guess a lot of people flipped them pretty fast.
  • j0rdantay10rj0rdantay10r Member Posts: 9
    Couple of things.

    I've bought a lot of LEGO product since Jan 12 and this is my first time really going through a holiday season and keeping up with the deals. My local LEGO store has invited me to a VIP event this Friday claiming I will get in early to the BF offers. Does this mean I have access to purchase anything at 25% off? Are there better offers on particular sets, or is the standard cut 25% across the board?

    Also, Amazon will be getting Minecraft on Dec 15. I ordered one from there the last time they were in stock and they ended up overselling them. They have been contacting those buyers and letting them know that their order will ship on Dec 15. Because of this, I expect they'll get some in stock at the same time. May be a little too close to Christmas for any of you to flip, but you could buy and hold for the long term as I expect this will continue to do quite well.
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367
    At this point, I would pick up any copies I could find at RRP. It seems to do well any time it's out of stock. I think the price bumps this summer show it's not even related to the holiday shopping season.
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