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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • BrickarmorBrickarmor Member Posts: 1,258
    TMNT 2K dude!!

    The Ninjago dragons are impressive, but the redundancy of vehicles is crippling the theme overall. #2525 and #2507 make a nice pair of bases from the red boxes, and I guess #9446 and #9450 are supposed to duke it out in the stratosphere, so I can see those doing well the first year or two after EOL. Much longer seems chancy. Five years from now I'll wager I can pave my driveway with Lloyd spinners.
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    Renny said:

    I'm not buying any Ninjago sets. I think as soon as the cartoon goes so does the interest. Saw it plenty of times during the 80's. Cartoon comes out, toy line comes out, huge buying frenzy, cartoon ends, interest goes, what's next?

    Pokemon was a prime example :)
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    FatMatt said:

    ^Where are you going to find the Dragon Battle at $60 besides lucky clearance finds, or Destiny's Bounty for that matter?

    Last year they could be found at Walmart after the holidays. To a lessor degree they could be had at Target.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    DaddyDeuce said:

    I agree that demand for the Ninjago sets is absolutely driven by kids watching the cartoon. What I don't know is what the syndication plans are for the show. Will a new wave of kids be watching it for the "first" time in two years?

    The whole point of the cartoon is to sell toys. As soon as the toys are off the shelf, why keep running the cartoon?

    There is a cartoon to go along with Legends, so that will probably replace Ninjago. If they leave Ninjago on the air, then kids will just keep going into the LEGO stores asking for it, only to not find it.

    That is a terrible business plan. :)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    brickmatic said:

    I think the Ninjago sets will do quite well when the kids today become the AFOLs of the future coming out of their dark age hibernation.

    Only if it gets done multiple times between now and then.

    Anyone remember Thundercats or Voltron from the 80s? Anyone making big bucks selling those toys today?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    brickmatic said:

    You mean like Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles? (1987–1996)

    TMNT came and went multiple times...

    As did the toys...

    Is there huge demand for MISB TMNT toys from the 80s? No... there is light collector demand, you could sell a few of them, but if you had 50 or 100 copies of each figure, that be a lot. Plus, you had to hold and store them for 25 years. :)
  • brickmaticbrickmatic Member Posts: 1,071
    ^ Agreed, but maybe TLG will revive Ninjago at a later date. We did get Blacktron 2 as well as Space Police 2 and 3, for instance. And yes, you'd have to hold onto them for a long time. But that's why intact sets will be rarer 25 years from now and why they would do quite well. That and nostalgia. But I agree, if you want to make money, there are better investments that will return more in a shorter amount of time.
  • JT32JT32 Member Posts: 124
    Does anyone have an opinion on 7938 Passenger Train for EOL predictions?

    It's not one I'd normally have looked at to make good money EOL but as a few recent posts have said it has a lot to do with the price you buy things at. In the UK these can be bought for around £52 (via amazon.it) so I thought it would be rude not to pick a couple up at that price.
  • SupersympaSupersympa Member Posts: 534
    edited November 2012
    @JT32 I have looked at it, and it has been discounted (and still is) many times...might do well, but I think it will have an overflow of reseller.
  • JT32JT32 Member Posts: 124
    yeah I think you make a good point @Supersympa. I was just hoping that most resellers would have focused on other trains like EN and Maersk. Still i'm happy to keep one myself at £52, it's a bit of a bargain :)
  • dfurndfurn Member Posts: 199
    It is a great European price for 7938. Also it's worth getting even if you only need the power functions to put in another train such a Horizon Express and some track to run it on.
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    Ninjas are always popular, whether connected to a tv show or not. I think Legends has a real chance to be a giant dud. Has anyone seen those animal vehicles? Yikes!
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    Noticing Battle of Endor is consistently around $160+ nowadays. I personally don't think the Hoth base will be as good (fewer figs and such), but I imagine that could be done here soon. Maybe in Dec?

    The one thing that kills me on Endor is that for a base, the set has exactly 20 basic bricks on a 842-pc set. C'mon man! That is just terrible.
  • sadowsk1sadowsk1 Member Posts: 124
    Ninjago is a very long term investment in my opinion. Like most people have suggested, it might just be a flash in the pan and while it may come back, it will at least hold nostalgic value for another generation. For most sets I invest in If I can get them cheap enough, not mind having the money tied up, have the space to hold onto them, and ultimately wouldn't mind keeping them if they never sold, I'm in. It's a lot of criteria, but I'm sure we all have our own styles. For the little Ninjago I have right now I've made the decision to sell them as hard and fast as I can for Christmas and wipe my hands of them. There are some interesting sets but not my style.
  • RennyRenny Member Posts: 1,145
    ^It really depends I think on how long the cartoon runs for. Ninjago has been on air for what now, at least 1 year? (Not sure, I don't follow it). Is 1 year enough time to "stick" with a kid throughout their childhood and adolescence that they feel nostalgic about it many years later?

    As an adult I actually went back and bought moc versions of He-Man, GI Joe and the Transformers. Those cartoons were on for quite some time and I had very memorable times watching them and collecting the toys. There were plenty of other cartoons/toy lines that were on for a year or two, I collected the toys but they didn't stick with me. I don't feel the need to go back and buy those toys again.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    ^ I think in the 80's, we had fewer channels and other things distracting us...

    In the 80's, we had maybe 15 channels, no Internet, no iPad, no fancy online games. Today, my son has games on the computer, games on his PS3, games on our iPad, 500 channels of TV, including multiple full time cartoon networks, and a DVR that has recorded hundreds and hundreds of the shows to watch. Then there is school, after school activities, he is on a basketball team, gymnastics, and martial arts.

    Plus, you know, we actually put family time in their as well. :)
  • RennyRenny Member Posts: 1,145
    That is very true @legoFanTexas. I actually was raised in Surrey England and we actually only had 4 channels, 1 was almost always news :( My parents only let me play the "Spectrum" videogame console on Sundays. The rest of my time was spent either playing with my toys or reading. To me those toys and my childhood go hand in hand. Not being married/having kids I don't know if toys carry the same impact they had back then. As you said, nowadays digital media and videogames are everywhere.
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk Member Posts: 633
    ^Agreed. In the 80s/early 90s the selection of cartoons were much less than today. They also tend to run for more than 2 years/seasons. So they have a better chance to stick with the audience.

    Ninjago is just one of many cartoons on TV/cable and it may not stay with the kids' aleady shorten attention span.
    The one big plus for Ninjago is everyone's familiarity with and/or fondness of Ninjas. However, without the cartoon, it is not that big of an advantage.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    My 10yo son loves Ninjago and watches all of the episodes. He is upset it is being replaced by Chimera. Once something else catches his attention it will quickly be forgotten tho. I don't think too many AFOLs are into Ninjago....LOTR and Hobbit may be the better bet.
  • The_MackThe_Mack Member Posts: 239
    LegoFanTexas said:

    ^ I think in the 80's, we had fewer channels and other things distracting us...

    In the 80's, we had maybe 15 channels, no Internet, no iPad, no fancy online games. Today, my son has games on the computer, games on his PS3, games on our iPad, 500 channels of TV, including multiple full time cartoon networks, and a DVR that has recorded hundreds and hundreds of the shows to watch. Then there is school, after school activities, he is on a basketball team, gymnastics, and martial arts.

    Plus, you know, we actually put family time in their as well. :)

    You forgot to add in all the new stuff that will come out, after all of the current choices above. We live in a world where I actually think we have too many choices now. Everything is awesome, and so anything that is new gets diluted.

    Take for example the Nintendo 3DS, here we have a awesome portable game machine that shows videos and plays games in 3D without glasses, but because we have so many other things that vibe for are attention. Nintendo isn't selling a lot of them. It an amazing piece of technology, but we have so many new things coming out constantly any technology is out dated within 6 months or less of being on the shelf.
    It has to do with technology having exponential growth; But us humans only have only so much time and attention to spend.

    Kids will still have fond memories of childhood toys, but the dilution of their shared experiences/remembrance will be greater.
  • FatMattFatMatt Member Posts: 502
    ^I tried playing one of those with the 3D turned on and it lasted about 5 seconds. It is a killer on the eyes.:)
  • lulwutlulwut Member Posts: 417
    Hard to believe the #7327 Scorpion Pyramid is already going over retail on Amazon. And I actually scored a few of these for 75% off last year too.

    #7287 Police Boat too. I didn't think City sets jumped past retail within a year.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    They don't usually. 3222 is another exception. On the market for a very short time.
  • DaddyDeuceDaddyDeuce Member Posts: 272
    LegoFanTexas said:


    The whole point of the cartoon is to sell toys. As soon as the toys are off the shelf, why keep running the cartoon?

    I've not seen the cartoon, but I think you are right. I retract my original point - the show would likely not go into syndication.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    I'd kill for a Lego star wars show.. The 30 minute short they did was fantastic.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 889
    ^^ it will however live on in DVD releases and likely streaming video services...
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk Member Posts: 633
    ^ Most kids need new episodes to keep their interest. Plus when their friends move on to new things so will they
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    BoiseState said:

    I'd kill for a Lego star wars show.. The 30 minute short they did was fantastic.

    Yes, why this hasn't been done is beyond me...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Bandit said:

    ^^ it will however live on in DVD releases and likely streaming video services...

    Yes, it will, now that we have such services, everything can live on forever...

    Right now,you can go online and watch the original Transformers cartoons. They are TERRIBLE, give it a try... boy I loved those when I was a kid, but the quality of animation is beyond horrible, I can't believe I used to love that show. :) Of course I was a kid, so what did I know.

    But then, all the old stuff is really looking old, even Lion King, a very well done movie, is showing its age now. I watched it with my kids a few weeks ago on BluRay, the new release they just did. Beautful as ever, the music is wonderful, but compared to Cars 2 and Toy Story 3, it really looks dated now. Ditto with Aladin, another of my favorites, that now looks old.

    We have tried the really old ones, Snow White, Dumbo, Bambi... they are terrible compared to what we have today. Amazing in their day, but I think it is more older people buying the memories than anything else now.

    -----------------

    So what is my point? That while Ninjago might be an option for streaming forever, will anyone care? Will millions of kids be watching it? No, I don't think so... With the cartoon off the air and the toys off the shelf, on to the next thing.
  • brickmaticbrickmatic Member Posts: 1,071
    ^Actually, I don't think kids care as much as adults as to how good or old the movies look. I don't think they notice it as much.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 889
    ^^ Sure, I'm not saying kids will be watching reruns forever, just that the option will be there. However, I certainly wouldn't bet on TLG not revisiting Ninjago a couple years down the line, or somehow keeping it alive in perpetuity. It's too big an IP at this point, too much of a success, to just toss it forever (IMO).

    As for the old cartoons, my son is loving watching a lot of the old stuff now available via streaming services. He just got into the old He-Man cartoons. He loves them. Kids don't care about animation quality one bit...
  • DeadareusDeadareus Member Posts: 264
    ^, agreed, my 4 yr LOVES the 1960's Spider-Man cartoon with the relative backgrounds. LOVES it!
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    "Spiderman, Spiderman. Does whatever a spider can..."

    My 3 year old loves them as well...and she is a girl.
    Deadareus
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk Member Posts: 633
    edited November 2012
    I agree that kids do not care too much about the animation quality. They are too busy filling all the gaps with their imagination..
    Bandit said:

    ... However, I certainly wouldn't bet on TLG not revisiting Ninjago a couple years down the line, or somehow keeping it alive in perpetuity. It's too big an IP at this point, too much of a success, to just toss it forever (IMO).

    I have to agree. Especially if the replacement (Chima) is received poorly by the target audience, ie. generating much less in sales compared to Ninjago. So there is hope yet.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,834
    4644 Marina and 4645 Harbor are both set currently on shop@home as Call to check for availability.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Am I crazy or am I watching a new Lego Star Wars cartoon?
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    LegoFanTexas said:


    We have tried the really old ones, Snow White, Dumbo, Bambi... they are terrible compared to what we have today. Amazing in their day, but I think it is more older people buying the memories than anything else now.

    Terrible? I'm sorry but if you cannot appreciate classic Disney animation then there really is no hope...
    sadowsk1pharmjod
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    LOL, the empire strikes out. Loved the Darth Star.
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693
    mathew said:

    LegoFanTexas said:


    We have tried the really old ones, Snow White, Dumbo, Bambi... they are terrible compared to what we have today. Amazing in their day, but I think it is more older people buying the memories than anything else now.

    Terrible? I'm sorry but if you cannot appreciate classic Disney animation then there really is no hope...
    Agreed. To this day, nothing even made with a computer can top 1959's Sleeping Beauty.
    sadowsk1
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    Harbor and Marina could do well. City Corner was a nice surprise in the aftermarket.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Ma1234 said:

    mathew said:

    LegoFanTexas said:


    We have tried the really old ones, Snow White, Dumbo, Bambi... they are terrible compared to what we have today. Amazing in their day, but I think it is more older people buying the memories than anything else now.

    Terrible? I'm sorry but if you cannot appreciate classic Disney animation then there really is no hope...
    Agreed. To this day, nothing even made with a computer can top 1959's Sleeping Beauty.
    To each their own...

    Tangled is just beautiful, fluid, detailed, and funny as heck.

    Sleeping Beauty, Snow White, those were actually quite scary... My 4 year old daughter was terrified watching Snow White, we had to turn it off.

    Perhaps those were not meant for 4 year olds, but she can watch Tangled no problem.
  • FatMattFatMatt Member Posts: 502
    @prevere
    I agree Harbor may do alright, but I have doubts about the Marina. It is lacking in my opinion.
  • RTORTO Member Posts: 88
    Maersk Train is 10% off at US S@H.
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Member Posts: 7,727
    Dino Def. HQ as well
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    ^ Smart... offer them for 10% off now rather than 25% off on BF or 40% off day after Christmas...

    After watching the past 2 holiday seasons, LEGO seems to have wised up a bit, rather than wait and do the 50% off across the board like they did 2 years ago.
  • Penkid11Penkid11 Member Posts: 788
    LegoFanTexas said:

    ^ Smart... offer them for 10% off now rather than 25% off on BF or 40% off day after Christmas...

    Was this the typical pattern for discontinuing sets this time last year?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    I don't recall them doing it, they were full price until BF, then 25% off, at which point they sold out within hours.
  • Nadana86Nadana86 Member Posts: 65
    Also #5887 is on sale. Do you guys think it will do well? The dinos might fetch a good price but will it be parents buying them for their children and going "I'm not spending 30 bucks on a single dinosaur" or will it be interesting for AFOLs spending good money on the whole set?
    It's only been available for a year and being on sale now seems to scream EOL...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Dino is probably a one and done set, like AC was... It will do ok, but everyone will forget about it soon enough...
  • Nadana86Nadana86 Member Posts: 65
    But looking back everybody had a dinosaur phase (I guess between 4 and 7 ;-) ) but who really liked aliens as a kid?
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