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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    edited October 2012
    ^Back a year ago, I was parting out multiple BP's(ship, and figs all separate), and getting about $140 per set. I could hardly even get $140 for the QAR. The overall percentage of the sets both waned as availability became more abundant, but the ratio percentage for the two stayed about the same. I personally feel that is a pretty good indicator of how they will perform. I expect them to net about the same amount for a while while slowly increasing. In the long run, i expect the BP to overtake QAR even though it is a $20 cheaper set, thus giving it a better overall percentage. The demand for it was just much more abundant then for the QAR while it was available. I agree with y2josh, that it just has more "uniqueness" going for it.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    You're probably right.. But I think the QAR stands out against the Black Pearl, but the figs and all black probably push the Pearl ahead.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    ^Personally, I think the QAR is a better looking ship, but that just doesn't change the numbers in my experience of selling them.
  • BrickbaseBrickbase Member Posts: 100
    Just ordered my copy of the Black Pearl, just have to wait a few extra days. I can also get my hands on a 10198 Tantive IV rather cheap. Is it worth the while to sell on later?
  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,365
    ^depends how cheap, argos sold theirs off at £75, l resold most of mine earlier this year at £170
    zoom
  • m4ttym4tty Member Posts: 54
    im not sure if i am right but has the 10212 Imperial Shuttle been discontinued as its not on the lego web site any more??
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ummm, there are different S&H sites. It's on the US one.
  • m4ttym4tty Member Posts: 54
    on amazon it says only one left ...if so would it be worth thinking about getting one
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,930
    Only 1 left in stock. Dispatched from and sold by all your music.

    That means there is only one left from one particular seller.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    it's pretty clearly on it's way out - US LEGO stores haven't been getting restocked on this item since late May or early June, and my local store hasn't had any since about then. I've heard similar of many other US LEGO stores. this will almost certainly be a Black friday sale item, and likely gone as soon as they can dump the remaining inventory from [email protected]
  • BrickbaseBrickbase Member Posts: 100
    @roxio

    Then your deal was far better than mine. I think I will skip this one.
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 3,090
    The IS is the best current UCS available IMO - if you've been waiting to buy one for yourself you might want to get it ordered before the price climbs on EOL.
  • m4ttym4tty Member Posts: 54
    ive hured loads of mixed reviews on the IS do you really think it will go up in price when it goes EOL or stay about the same price
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ About as good as it gets.
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited October 2012
    ^^I'll answer this fairly obvious question in a nice way: The price will increase, since supply (the number of sets people have stashed away) will almost definitely be less than demand (people who still want the product). How much the prices will increase is entirely open to speculation, but you can be virtually assured that the price will increase, probably substantially.
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    I think the IS will definitely climb in price. It is a great looking ship and is quite striking in white compared to the many bluish grey models. The fact that it is a UCS and has working gears which move the wings is a great function with the freedom to display it either in a landing pose or in flight. Comes with a nice assortment of mini figures and the build itself (while a little repetitive with the 2 wings) was pretty fun, especially the main body with all the gears and technic parts. The overall size is very impressive too.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ^I agree, but by all means @m4tty, wait until it is EOL to find out. Then you can grab one from one of these fine gentlemen ;)
    tk79Titus
  • leego76leego76 Chandlers FordMember Posts: 360
    Interesting that minecraft is outselling everything else according to the UK top sellers list, even s8 minifigs, I assume resellers stocking up? When is this expected to be done and dusted as I recall some speculation that it would be re-run for xmas and maybe no further? Lego has got to be having a rethink on this one, would be stupid not to
  • tk79tk79 Member Posts: 329
    Pitfall69 said:

    ^I agree, but by all means @m4tty, wait until it is EOL to find out. Then you can grab one from one of these fine gentlemen ;)

    Lol, nice :)

  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited October 2012
    A few posts back someone said that the UCS IS will be the next UCS MF. I agree, although I don't see it doing as well as the MF. No one will be caught by surprise this time. But, the IS is iconic (not as much as the MF, but still iconic) and is simply a great looking set. It is most impressive. I have seen where some people have it on display on an end table, etc. A set has to look very nice before you do that with it! And, it is minifig scale. And, the wings fold/unfold. I think it will do very well when EOL'd. Especially if a person picks it up at a discount. Will probably see another 2 set limit, don't ya think? And, if a BF special it will sell out quickly.

    Also, due to the price I think a lot people put off buying it. They simply get other cheaper sets instead and are going to get the UCS IS later. Then, before they know it, they can't find it on Amazon or the LEGO store. The rest is history. :-)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I agree, it is a nice looking set. I don't see it doing nowhere near the UCS MF, but it should do nicely. The reasons mentioned above and I think because of the price point. It is half the rrp of the UCS MF.
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    Pitfall69 said:

    I agree, it is a nice looking set. I don't see it doing nowhere near the UCS MF, but it should do nicely. The reasons mentioned above and I think because of the price point. It is half the rrp of the UCS MF.

    But isnt the reason why the MF went up so quickly was because there weren't half as many resellers or collectors who buy an extra few of them as there are now?, and why we won't ever see the likes of that ever again
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    edited October 2012
    Yes, that is why I said for the reasons @cloaked7 said plus I added another reason why I think it won't . I don't think people were stockpiling the UCS MF...and for $500 a pop, not many of us could even if we wanted to.
  • BenxSmithBenxSmith Member Posts: 9
    What do you think of the future of 10195?
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    10195 is going for around £350 is the UK already and I can see this reaching £600-£700 3 years down the line.
  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,365
    ^ can't see it reaching those heights, maybe £400-£500.
    £290 buy it now available on eBay at the moment
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923

    Pitfall69 said:

    I agree, it is a nice looking set. I don't see it doing nowhere near the UCS MF, but it should do nicely. The reasons mentioned above and I think because of the price point. It is half the rrp of the UCS MF.

    But isnt the reason why the MF went up so quickly was because there weren't half as many resellers or collectors who buy an extra few of them as there are now?, and why we won't ever see the likes of that ever again
    I wouldn't say ever again. From a profit % standpoint, we might see it again. Albeit with a smaller set on smaller dollars. But your point is well taken on the # of increased resellers nowadays.

    Those people hoping to turn a 2011 EOL set into 3x this Xmas may be disappointed. The # of increased resellers is extending the time it takes to acquire a 3x margin, IMHO. Now some sets have already reached that, but many have not.
  • JohnnyfinlandiaJohnnyfinlandia Member Posts: 358
    I managed to get 2 x Maersk Trains today from amazon.it. They were at normal price (€98) but availability keeps coming back and forth so maybe they are not in mint condition. We'll see. If I actually receive them I will open one and keep the other. I am trying to get most of the trains as these seem quite nice to collect but have missed some good ones e.g. Holiday Train. Haven't seen the Ghost train yet but assume that will be around for a while and might bag one in some sale.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,930
    ^ The ghost train isn't really a proper train, especially the carriages.
  • JT32JT32 BasingstokeMember Posts: 124
    I see the price of 10217 DA has gone up nicely in the UK in the last week or two. They are now selling very steadily on eBay for £150 which is crazy considering I bought some from tesco last week at £86!!!!! (3 for 2 sale, got some 4x4 Crawlers to make up the numbers).
  • LoosecannonLoosecannon Member Posts: 12
    If Monster Fighters is confirmed as a 1 year range, does that suggest the Haunted House will EOL with the rest of the range? Do we have any previous examples of a single item from a range staying out at lot longer than the rest?
  • cbaker1974cbaker1974 Member Posts: 150

    If Monster Fighters is confirmed as a 1 year range, does that suggest the Haunted House will EOL with the rest of the range? Do we have any previous examples of a single item from a range staying out at lot longer than the rest?

    MMV has been out under the Castle line for a long time, Joust has been out even though the rest of Kingdoms is gone. I'd say HH still has at least another year+
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I agree. I think the Haunted House is a big seller for TLG. It will stay, even if the rest of the line is cancelled.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,233
    edited November 2012
    Wow, surprised to see this thread disappear from the recent discussions list 1st page :-)
    Does that mean everyone is patiently waiting for the sets to start showing as 'Sold Out' at LEGO.com?
    I noticed a few have gone away but nothing really major yet.
    Still debating if I want to grab a few more Maersk trains, and MMV or not.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    I grabbed the last Maersk at the Cleveland Lego store. They said they are not getting any more in. They were out of GE (but able to order more). No MMV, FB, IS, Bakery either.
  • mountebankmountebank Member Posts: 1,237
    edited November 2012

    Does that mean everyone is patiently waiting for the sets to start showing as 'Sold Out' at LEGO.com

    It's probably that posters have decided that all that needs to be said on this subject has now been said. All is done, all of the wisdom is now here.

  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    edited November 2012

    Does that mean everyone is patiently waiting for the sets to start showing as 'Sold Out' at LEGO.com

    It's probably that posters have decided that all that needs to be said on this subject has now been said. All is done, all of the wisdom is now here.

    I agree, the stuff being posted on here is mostly just stuff that has already been mentioned a few pages back, there is only so much that can be discussed on the topic of EOL dates and secondary prices.

    I think the whole obsession and craze about when stuff will EOL is all about the outrageous prices of cafe corner and the UCS Falcon, i think alot of people who are buying 20 fire brigade's and 20 Imperial Shuttle's are going to be thoroughly dissapointed when they EOL and prices struggle to rise as they hoped they would.

    Investing in Lego is a fun but RISKY way to spend your money, too many resellers are thinking exactly the same thing.

    It'll certainly be a good thing for future AFOL's who will still be able to get stuff at affordable prices, not so good for the investors though.

    From reading this thread it seems like their are many posters who are itching to know EOL's with the intention to make quick profits.

    And again most of the stuff ive just said above has also been mentioned many times before in this topic
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Could be or we are just tired of everyone complaining about resellers and how many sets we have bought ;)
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    edited November 2012
    Pitfall69 said:

    Could be or we are just tired of everyone complaining about resellers and how many sets we have bought ;)

    If that was aimed at me i must say im not complaining, just wish more resellers were around when 10179 EOL'd, id only want to know the EOL date so i know im not going to miss out on a particular set.

    wish i did but i just aint got loads of money to blow on big sets to invest in, but even then im not too worried as there will be plenty of resellers out there ;)
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    I think aside from the rare Minecraft or Green Ninja craze (only ones I can think of), "Lego investment" and "quick Profit" don't go hand in hand.

    I think talk about the Death Star, Imperial Shuttle, Fire Brigade, Medieval Market Village, etc has been completely exhausted at this point. I know I'm tired of reading and talking about these sets. I'm sure once Thanksgiving rolls around and the big sales start up that this thread will be as lively as ever. In the mean time there are 142 pages of "archives" if you are feeling nostalgic :)
    Bumblepants
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Not aimed at anyone in particular :) I'm just being funny and sarcastic.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Renny said:

    I think aside from the rare Minecraft or Green Ninja craze (only ones I can think of), "Lego investment" and "quick Profit" don't go hand in hand.

    I think talk about the Death Star, Imperial Shuttle, Fire Brigade, Medieval Market Village, etc has been completely exhausted at this point. I know I'm tired of reading and talking about these sets. I'm sure once Thanksgiving rolls around and the big sales start up that this thread will be as lively as ever. In the mean time there are 142 pages of "archives" if you are feeling nostalgic :)

    The horror!!! No thanks :)

  • staffmarkstaffmark Member Posts: 44

    Does that mean everyone is patiently waiting for the sets to start showing as 'Sold Out' at LEGO.com


    I think the whole obsession and craze about when stuff will EOL is all about the outrageous prices of cafe corner and the UCS Falcon, i think alot of people who are buying 20 fire brigade's and 20 Imperial Shuttle's are going to be thoroughly dissapointed when they EOL and prices struggle to rise as they hoped they would.

    Could you guys define "prices not rising as much as we thought?" I am new to this thing over the past 6 mos, and though I am not expecting CC or UCS MF numbers with anything I'll resell, it seems that every licensed set I can think of doubles in value within 6-12 mos after EOL. To me, as a casual collector who's just trying to pay for his hobby with reselling, that is crazy appreciation in today's investment environment. Yet it seems that as I read this forum, many here think that simply doubling one's money in 12 mos is "not rising as much as we hoped" and is disappointing to most. Am I correct? As far as I'm concerned, I'll take $300 for a FB at this time next year every day and twice on Sunday. what do you all think?

  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    Renny said:

    I think aside from the rare Minecraft or Green Ninja craze (only ones I can think of), "Lego investment" and "quick Profit" don't go hand in hand.

    I think talk about the Death Star, Imperial Shuttle, Fire Brigade, Medieval Market Village, etc has been completely exhausted at this point. I know I'm tired of reading and talking about these sets. I'm sure once Thanksgiving rolls around and the big sales start up that this thread will be as lively as ever. In the mean time there are 142 pages of "archives" if you are feeling nostalgic :)

    Certainly, but i still think there will be people buying up yet more DS who maybe arnt even members on the forum reading what everyone has said yet still ignoring it who still believe they will double their money within the first few months when or if that set ever retires.
  • AmberylAmberyl Member Posts: 193
    Unfortunately Brickpicker.com is down, but the hard data says that in fact, many (most?) licensed sets do not actually double in price 12 months after EOL. For resellers, deciding what to buy, when to buy it, and at what price to buy it is actually very critical to profitability.
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFW/BGMember Posts: 7,074
    @staffmark, It all depends on you for how much want back to make it worthwhile. Some people here resell for business, others, like you, just to be able to buy more Lego. I resell just to fund my hobby so I go out of my way to find clearance and good promos to maximize my dollars. I usually build what I buy and keep the ones I really like and shift the ones I can part with later on via Bricklink or eBay to fund new purchases. Instead of aiming for a certain % back, I just aim to keep my Lego buying in the black so the wife doesn't mind.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    edited November 2012
    I have to agree with that, but some sets, licensed or not, do extremely well 12 months after EOL. The Imperial Flagship was selling for 2x rrp and it hadn't been EOL'd for 12 months. Prices have gone down, but I expect them to go back up over 2x rrp around Christmas.

    I don't think we discuss every single set that is or isn't going to be valuable, but there are a few that we just know are going to be winners.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    It's probably that posters have decided that all that needs to be said on this subject has now been said. All is done, all of the wisdom is now here.

    Lt. Ben Gannon: Captain Marshfield? EDI, did you just turn off Captain Marshfield?
    EDI: [brief pause] There was nothing left to say.
    Pitfall69
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    @staffmark my goal is to simply double my money after fees and shipping. Haven't had an issue doing that for the past 4 years, but I never pay retail prices either. $300 for FB is asking too much. I haven't had an issue buying them this year for $100 with the good amount of sales we have seen and cashback opportunities / promo figs to sell etc....$220 Buy It Now looks good to me and my investment. As long as this gig nets 25% and over I am a happy camper....below that it is time to keep it just a hobby and let my $$$ move into another market.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ^This

    I fully expect $200-220 for FB a full year after EOL. It all depends on what your purchase price was and what you deem is enough profit that is worth your time.
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