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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ True, but Maersk is already not available in stores. IF, Dropship and EN were available the whole time.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    The only thing I'm on edge about is GE. Expensive mistake to make either way.
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    Good point about Maersk @gmpirate. GE is still available on Amazon and Target. I found last year that when one place sold out, it would still be in stock somewhere else for awhile. So it gave me more time to figure out which sets I had to pull the trigger on.
  • Steve_J_OMSteve_J_OM IrelandMember Posts: 967
    Have third party prices for GE gone up much since it went out of stock on [email protected]?
  • SiESiE Member Posts: 238
    its still in stock in the uk on tlg
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^^ no
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,228

    Have third party prices for GE gone up much since it went out of stock on [email protected]?

    I do not think so.. Mostly because they are still available at other retail outlets.. until this changes, prices will largely stay about RRP.
  • timinchicagotiminchicago USAMember Posts: 239
    FWIW - LEGO S&H is showing an expected shipping date of 7 Dec for GE.
    FollowsClosely
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,228
    ^--and that will definitely stop any rise in prices :-)
  • bigjsdbigjsd Member Posts: 62
    Kind of off topic but I just don't understand why Lego doesn't offer additional add on sets for their trains such as extra passenger cars and such. I think a stand alone passenger car for the Emerald Night would have sold very well. I was not willing to fork out twice the price for two sets but I would have gladly forked out another $40 bucks for another passenger car. A freight train is a different story because they often have two engines and buying two sets makes sense but not with a steam loco.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ They tried it years ago, they did not sell well. The problem with "add-on" items is your entire customer base is a sub-set of the entire LEGO customer base, only people with the initial set will buy the add-on, and only some of those people will.

    Why not just make another train that everyone might buy?
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    ^Didn't we hear something about planned modular expansions for next year? Or are we still under the assumption that this will be an expansion for the mini-modulars?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I'm sticking with Mini Modulars expansions.
  • stegmancostegmanco Member Posts: 42
    Do you think everyone calling CS for the GE would have drove the interest in doing another production run? If nobody had said anything it would have gone out peacfully, or it was always ordained for this set to go back into production?
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367
    I doubt it. With all of the community outreach LEGO does, I imagine they have at least a few people tasked with checking fan forums and reading up on what people are saying about products. It would not be a stretch for them to identify when a sales spike is tied to speculation that a product is at its EOL, rather than some other factor.
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    If 10219 Maersk Train is being discontinued this year, it is a set that I would expect would be 25% off starting Black Friday. Now I wonder if the stock will be depleted by then.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    rocao said:

    If 10219 Maersk Train is being discontinued this year, it is a set that I would expect would be 25% off starting Black Friday. Now I wonder if the stock will be depleted by then.

    I would also fully expect it to be 25% off, but if stock is gone, then that doesn't help much. :)

    EN was in plenty of stock a year ago at 25% off, but MT appears not to be. We shall see. :)
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    I don't think so. It's a train, but a niche train.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    ^^ The problem is this set will not be available in stores on BF so you will need to order it online. Obviously this will be a very in demand set if a discount is offered. Do you risk missing out or having your orders cancelled like last year or do you go with the free shipping and double VIP right now?
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    edited October 2012
    ^ i did the latter, and they arrived yesterday.

    I'll probably try again if/when they go on sale online on BF, but if I miss out, at least I have the full price ones that I already ordered.
  • momof2boys99momof2boys99 Member Posts: 322
    ^I did the same as you. I rather be safe than sorry. It is also now in the top 25 sellers, so they are moving stock faster.
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    Right... my point was that getting out ahead of the news might be a detrimental self-fulfilling prophecy. Were there no reports, there would be less demand, less worry about going out of stock and fewer purchases, resulting in some or more being available for an eventual discount.
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    ^ Not sure you can sell that to people who missed out on EOL sets because they waited for a sale.
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    ^ I'm not trying to sell it to those people. My advice for personal collectors is always the same: maintain a wanted list and prioritize buying with a bias towards sets that have been available longer as those are likely to EOL sooner. For those people, I would expect that 1.5 years after release has been sufficient or that they already have been tracking the urgency.

    The people I'm addressing are the resellers trying to time EOL so they can procure sets while minimizing the length that they hold those positions. There are many such people in this thread.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    ^For me, I'm not sweating Maersk. If it is discounted during BF, I'll pick up a couple, but I don't see it doing numbers so huge that I'll regret missing out on it. I have one for personal use, and I do think it's a nice set, but I don't think it looks nearly as nice as the Emerald Night. I may eat those words a short ways down the road, but I think there are better, similar-priced sets to invest in.
  • momof2boys99momof2boys99 Member Posts: 322
    ^I had to buy some extra because if they don't sell, my son loves the Maersk blue. So, for me it is a win-win.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    ^The Maersk blue is, I think, the wildcard here. Currently, the Maersk is great as a part-out set, and probably will continue to be. I'm not sure how in demand it will be as a set unto itself, however.
    FollowsClosely
  • jasonord69ajasonord69a UKMember Posts: 448
    Maersk train now sold out in uk online
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Is Monster Fighters a one time thing? Or a continued series?
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    One time, but I would be surprised to see the Haunted House go.
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 816
    gmpirate said:

    One time, but I would be surprised to see the Haunted House go.

    By that do you mean it is EOL next year?

  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Dangit, it's been my favorite line as far as minifigs go. Love the castle and house.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    I wonder how they'll do.. I would think they'd do pretty well a few years after EOL.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    The Haunted House will obviously do well. If it EOL's now it should appreciate really fast as it would catch a lot of people off guard. With the success of the Christmas line, I would think Lego would try and do the same with Halloween and keep the HH around for next year. I've heard things in the stores but I don't put too much on that.

    The castle should do well because A: it's a castle, and B: it has some unique castle colors (black).

    You may see some play with the Ghost Train, because it is a train, but that's it as far as the sets go. The minifigs should do well, however.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Ya, not impressed with most of the sets but the figs are great.
  • WindfieldWindfield USAMember Posts: 33
    guys, a little off topic here. Do most of you use eBay for selling your Lego sets? I am not a fan of eBay and Paypal fees, which quickly eat away any profits. Or do you guys use something different, like Craigslist? Any input is much appreciated. Thanks guys!
  • thorniethornie Member Posts: 245
    ^ Bricklink.com
  • WindfieldWindfield USAMember Posts: 33
    edited October 2012
    thanks! the fees are way lower, I see
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ Depends on what one is doing. Generally speaking, the greater the volume you are dealing with the greater the fees you will need to pay. i.e. Craigslist is obviously free but you will not do nearly the volume as you would with Ebay or Amazon. You will also command more money per set as well. I would suggest doing some searches here as the pros and cons of the different selling mediums have been discussed at length.
  • ElbazElbaz Member Posts: 7
    Hi all,

    I'm new here and have a question about the Black Pearl and Queen Anne's Revenge sets. They appear to be EOL sets, but amazon still has some in stock. While my pocketbook would prefer that I hold off on purchasing them, I'm unsure as to the risk of waiting. I'm curious as to whether I should pick them up now or wait until a Black Friday sale or a good price on ebay.
    Thanks!
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    @Elbaz - Welcome!

    If you want those sets, now is the time, you are unlikely to find the prices better than they are today. Both sets are finished with production and what is left in the wild is all that exists.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    ^^If you're trying to prioritize the two, you definitely want to grab the Pearl now, as it's almost certainly going to be the one that vanishes at RRP first (it's also worth noting that Amazon itself doesn't actually have stock on these, but just sellers on Amazon Marketplace).

    Having said that, I still wouldn't wait a very long time to pick up QAR. It appears to have been less popular than the Pearl, but it's still sold out at quite a few retailers.
  • AmberylAmberyl Member Posts: 193
    I just saw a window-display where the Black Pearl was crewed with ghosts rather than the PotC minifigs. I have to say it looks much better that way. :-)
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ oh, neat idea. hmmm, makes me want to go get the ghost train for the minifigs.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Black Pearl had better figs, but the QAR is a much better build.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ agree
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    ^^Which overall, I would expect the BP to do the best of the two. Main reason being Davy Jones.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ tough call. I think we could easily build a list of pros & cons for each.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    I can't imagine any scenario in which QAR out-performs the Pearl. It just has a lot more unique and desirable elements (i.e. the minifigs, the black hull pieces).
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