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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • thecleatorthecleator Member Posts: 70
    ^Pitfall69 thats my point nobody stockpiled GE so LEGO isnt keeping it longer like they did with the Fire Bridgade
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    ^Yeah, brain fart. My bad
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    edited October 2012
    Resellers as their own worst enemies... That could be an interesting thesis.
    More resellers buy FB because of EOL speculations, thus TLG makes more FB and delaying EOL due to the "demand". Meanwhile, since resellers' resources got tied up in FB, the "demand" for GE goes down. TLG decides to EOL GE (instead of FB) due to low demands...
    mnbvc
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    edited October 2012
    ^ Sounds interesting but too fantastical. The much simpler and more likely explanation is the extra production run keeping FB around a year longer while GE is on its regular schedule to EOL.

    Then again maybe resellers should take credit for allowing little Timmy the opportunity to buy FB for a whole year longer so he didn't have to get trampled at last years BF sales. Who's hating resellers now?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    ^Oh no. The reseller hate has overflowed into this thread...lol
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    I still find it hard to believe that resellers can actually affect production. Minecraft maybe, but that was different because it was a limited production run.
  • thorniethornie Member Posts: 245
    ^ that's because they can't. Unless they are named Wal mart or Amazon.
    Pitfall69
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    @LegoFanTexas

    Darth-Mart or Darthazon could be responsible.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,722
    ^ Off guard but plenty to be had outside of LEGO if this is gone.. Now I doubt there are 1000's available but probably good enough to last the next few weeks more than likely, unless other sales occur then that number will probably go down quickly. Or it pops back into availability at LEGO.com
  • tdhbrtdhbr Member Posts: 188
    Maybe this has been discussed earlier ... Manager at brand store told me yesterday that production for #10219 Maersk Train stopped a month ago and he won't be getting anymore after his current stock is gone. With Horizon Express on the way, it's pretty clear that Maersk is on its way out.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ yes, discussed on "confirmed" thread . . .
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,722
    Wow, it does not really seem like the Maersk train was out since 2011.. time is flying.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    madforLEGO said:

    Wow, it does not really seem like the Maersk train was out since 2011.. time is flying.

    Yep, feels like it just launched... But it did, 2011 was only a year ago, so having it out for "just" a year is actually quite short.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    @ dragonhawk & doriansdad.

    We all know that hyped purchasing on one item can impact supply/demand on other related items and influence aftermarket positions.

    A great example of this is: The 1989-1990 Score Football Set
    1989 Set was underproduced (high prices/popularity); 1990 Set is overproduced (low prices/demand) - then the 1990 update comes out, nobody buys it and prices/demand skyrocket.

    I don't think this is the case with either FB and GE. But just showing that it can happen. And I think this scenario can happen in the Lego world.

    Whenever FB does retire, it will be a very strong indicator of what's to happen with GE, PS and the current modular market.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    prevere said:


    Whenever FB does retire, it will be a very strong indicator of what's to happen with GE, PS and the current modular market.

    Of course, unless FB becomes the DS of the modular world :P
  • Penkid11Penkid11 Member Posts: 788
    I seriously think they are holding out for a police station.
    Dang, and I was hoping that I could wait on the Maersk Train. Too many things being discontinued behind my back.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ Well, the Maersk Train is easier on the pocket book. DS's & FB's are sure taking up lot of space right now :(
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    prevere said:

    @ dragonhawk & doriansdad.

    We all know that hyped purchasing on one item can impact supply/demand on other related items and influence aftermarket positions.

    A great example of this is: The 1989-1990 Score Football Set
    1989 Set was underproduced (high prices/popularity); 1990 Set is overproduced (low prices/demand) - then the 1990 update comes out, nobody buys it and prices/demand skyrocket.

    I don't think this is the case with either FB and GE. But just showing that it can happen. And I think this scenario can happen in the Lego world.

    Whenever FB does retire, it will be a very strong indicator of what's to happen with GE, PS and the current modular market.</blockquot

    Ha. Half of the people in here have no idea what you are talking about and the other half are scratching their heads. I know what you are talking about because I was there and I just happened to grab one of those little red boxes...lol

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,722
    I REALLY hope that LEGO sets do not start to follow the baseball card market patterns
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    There are about 100 reasons why that won't happen. The obvious one being that Lego is a toy and cards are collectibles.

    But I do appreciate Pitfall69's snapshot of Emmitt there. Nice!
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    I'm a Dallas Cowboys fan. Little did I know that Emmitt was going to be as good as he ended up being.

    Yes, let's hope Lego doesn't follow that trend. I don't think it will for obvious reasons, but anything is possible.
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFW/BGMember Posts: 7,512
    ^Let's also hope Lego doesn't become as lousy as the Cowboys have become - Disappointed Dallas fan
    FollowsCloselyPitfall69
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^Gotta cut Romo to have a chance, he's too soft (and chokes when it matters most) to lead America's team.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    ^That's got about as much to do with Lego as the governmennt overstepping their role :P
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    edited October 2012
    ^Sorry to offend (at least he's not Cutler). Following the tangent bus where ever it goes, next stop... Foreign Policy =) <~~~ Smiley face so all is forgiven right?
  • stegmancostegmanco Member Posts: 42
    As a Giant's fan why do the Cowboy's get to be America's Team! To make this relevant have they ever produced a NFL set?
    berniebond
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^No, only a single Football fig in the current CMF Series 8. Same goes for Baseball. Basketball and Soccer has had official sets though.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    I vote for a large scale model of the new Cowboys stadium.
    BumblepantsPitfall69
  • stegmancostegmanco Member Posts: 42
    I would take a statium to go in my lego city, here I thought how cool it would be to integrate a Batcave in my city and have my superhero sets patrol...now I just want a nice football stadium with a spring loaded leged mini figs to toss the ball.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    I trust you know I was joking, and as I sometimes join in on the tangents as well.
  • JP3804JP3804 Member Posts: 332
    NFL license. That's going to make it expensive.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    I do Matt, just pulling your leg further lol. It's been quiet 'round these parts, so need a good chuckle on a Friday afternoon.
  • MarkVMarkV Member Posts: 42
    JP3804 said:

    NFL license. That's going to make it expensive.

    I thought I just read they were a "non-profit" :) It should be illegal to overcharge for licensing if you're a non-profit...
  • stegmancostegmanco Member Posts: 42
    So will Lego Super Hero and LoTR sets discontinue some when these new sets come in?
  • JP3804JP3804 Member Posts: 332
    edited October 2012
    None profit? To the tune of about 9.5 billion in 2011.


  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFW/BGMember Posts: 7,512
    ^The NFL is poised to make $10 Billion this year, That might qualify as profit. Lego did do NBA and NHL a long time ago, can't remember how well it did though. NFL Lego would sell big in the US but I doubt it would anywhere else
  • SirKevbagsSirKevbags Fairy Land Member Posts: 4,027
    I like the stadium idea but the problem is which sport to play in it.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^A baseball stadium would be the most distinct and visually pleasing, with the infield diamond and bases. I'm actually quite fond of this suggestion and think it would make a great addition to City. Can't believe they haven't released one before tbh.
  • JP3804JP3804 Member Posts: 332
    I agree with @Bumblepants. I doubt they would sell very well outside the U.S.

    Soccer( Ya I'm a Yank ) stadiums might do bettter.
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFW/BGMember Posts: 7,512
    ^problem is, if it is not your teams stadium, you won't want it. I would love to have a stadium for the few teams I support but wouldn't think twice about buying some other teams. Maybe an Olympic site or a World Cup site would work, maybe Brazil 2014 or something, that might be big enough to capture a wide audience but still unlikely to happen. Plus a good one would cost $400 or more
  • JP3804JP3804 Member Posts: 332
    ^ Very true. I guess it's MOCing time.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 889
    There is only one stadium that will sell well. It's called the Colosseum. :)
    Pitfall69WeezyCupcake
  • itsnotmeitsnotme Member Posts: 126
    gmpirate said:

    Of course, unless FB becomes the DS of the modular world :P

    It would seem logical that they are just keeping FB around until PC is released, and will EOL FB at that point. I know EOLs typically happen at the end of the year, but TLG is clearly unconcerned with standard operating procedures when it comes to modulars. We already have what seems like a lot of modulars available at the same time - I'd be surprised if they added PC to the lot without EOLing one of the four current sets.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    I had to post an NFL player didn't I?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    edited October 2012
    A generic Baseball or Football Stadium would do just fine. Now, they could do some famous stadiums the way they do the Architecture Series. Football, Soccer, Baseball, Hockey, Basketball. Those would sell in a heartbeat.
  • ThezoofoxThezoofox United Kingdom - EastMember Posts: 188
    edited October 2012
    MSG in New York mght work as an architecture set and as its been the scene of different sporting events (basketball, Boxing) and big music events it might prove popular.
  • Cam_n_StuCam_n_Stu UKMember Posts: 368
    Maybe they could keep the costs down with a generic stadium and just have licensed minifig teams?

    I like the idea of an open ended stadium, perhaps they could do a Baseball Park and then you could combine two of them to make a Football/Soccer/Rugby stadium or an Athletics Track & Field.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Is set #3181 (passenger plane) gone? It shows "sold out" at Lego and I couldn't find the set at TRU this morning. Anybody know?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,722
    edited October 2012
    ^---I think the set is done.
    I saw it as sold out on LEGOs site, but TRU had them still so I got a couple in order to get the minifig set.
    Im guessing the Airport will probably be on its way out as well.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Hmmmm....I would like to pickup the Airport before it goes...
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