Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    store employee
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,128
    in that case, definitely a grain of salt. as has been discussed previously, we here usually now more than the store employees in regards to new sets and EOL sets. Not saying they aren't right, but my guess is that their information is either speculative or something they got from a regular AFOL customer who may themselves be speculating.
  • DiggydoesDiggydoes Cologne/GermanyMember Posts: 1,076
    ^co-signed! As much as i appreciate the kindness of the store employees in my area,they unfortunately know waaay lesser than what people here on the board knows!
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited October 2012
    Yeah...I do take store employee comments with a grain of salt. I was talking with one of our local B&M employees and he didn't even know about the Halloween ghost fighters polybag. Nor did he know that the Minecraft was back on sale (at least intermittently) through Lego online. I figure if they don't know those kinds of things, they probably won't know about potentially EOL'd sets. Nice people...yes. Prognosticators (or even in the know)...an emphatic no.
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    Well it could either way my gut instinct tells me it will turn out to be true.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    edited October 2012
    Although they are about my favorite over the phone reps of any company to talk to, I feel that a percentage of the phone reps merely "work" there, and don't really share an enthusiasm for the product, let alone know much about it. I said a percentage, not all. So really, what most of them will tell you over the phone, only reflects what they can find on their computer screen, which isn't much more than we can find. While the in-store employees may have a greater enthusiasm for the product, they really only have the same resources that the phone reps have to pull info from.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    edited October 2012
    This is all of the information I could gather regarding GE. 3 different phone reps from [email protected] all confirmed it was sold out and unavailable for backorder. 2 reps stated it would not be coming back ever. 1 phone rep said it would not be available for the next 2-3 months at least and she was not certain it would ever be coming back. The owner of my local Lego store said he would not be getting any more for his store as it was not available for him to order any more. The owner said he did not know if [email protected] would be getting anymore and that it must be a very popular set as he sold quite a few today. Take that for what it is all worth.
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    Amazon.es must have shifted a few at 122 euro for GE. Not a bad price I would have been in at that if I hadnt got to my limit. Out of all the current modulars still for sale I think the GE will have the greatest mark up EOL. It looks a classic, although I cant see it reaching the heights of GG and CC.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257

    This is all of the information I could gather regarding GE. 3 different phone reps from [email protected] all confirmed it was sold out and unavailable for backorder. 2 reps stated it would not be coming back ever. 1 phone rep said it would not be available for the next 2-3 months at least and she was not certain it would ever be coming back. The owner of my local Lego store said he would not be getting any more for his store as it was not available for him to order any more. The owner said he did not know if [email protected] would be getting anymore and that it must be a very popular set as he sold quite a few today. Take that for what it is all worth.

    I'm wearing my read-between-the-lines goggles and to me that says P A N I C !
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    Just ordered another 3 GE's
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    I don't know if we should panic yet. It may just be a temporary production issue. However if you are on the fence about getting one then double VIP points and a 10% coupon should make the decision a bit easier at your local Lego store.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    This all a repeat of FB earlier this year. The managers said the same thing. "That was it! We're not getting anymore."

    I'm actually at a Lego Store right now. Think I'm going to pass. There are some "for sure" things to get coming up. I'm not about to risk tying up a few thousand dollars for something that may sit another two years. One cannot be prepared for "everything ". You can go crazy trying to and will probably miss out on a lot more because funds were tied up.
  • The_MackThe_Mack Member Posts: 239

    1 phone rep said it would not be available for the next 2-3 months at least and she was not certain it would ever be coming back.

    Sounds like the right amount of time for TLG to do another production run...

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,349
    LEGO rarely discontinues something for 2-3 months then brings it back unless there is a re-design. Maersk ship set came back partly due to Maersk wanting more of them as promo items.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited October 2012
    Yeah...2-3 months is a long time. How long did #10213 go away for before it was resurrected as #10231?

    I do think this may be the last hurrah for #10212 though.

    JMO...
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,349
    ^-----Well again 10213/10231 was due to a redesign, not just because they decided to re-issue it.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    Yeah, Shuttle Adventure, Maersk Container Ship and even Fire Brigade are different animals.
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited October 2012
    While I've decided not to no longer resell sealed Lego sets (after my current inventory is sold), I'm interested to see how the Grand Emporium will do after EOL, if it is the first modular to retire after the Lego reselling “craze” started.

    It appears there are a quite a few people who have these stashed away, so it will be interesting to see if there is sufficient demand to influence a significant price increase.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,349
    ^ well seeing the Imperial Flagship selling for about double what is retailed for and the EN selling double what retail was, I'm guessing the FB and Grand Emporium will reach such numbers as well fairly quickly..
    I mean everyone had a good idea that EN was due to be discontinued and arguably more people bough the EN since it was cheaper (and widely available even after it sold out from LEGO) and it still did about double its price despite this, same with IF. So it stands to reason that the Mods will do the same (considering more people would probably want mods over the EN and IF)
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited October 2012
    ^ You bring up some very logical points there, and I would venture a guess that you're probably right.

    At the same time, I'm inclined to think that the other modulars could serve as a sufficient substitute for the GE, whereas a sufficient substitute is not available for the IF and EN. For example, there is no currently available ship as big/impressive as the IF, and there is no currently available steam engine like the EN. But I suppose there are always some buyers who just have to have a particular Lego set regardless of the cost.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    I mean everyone had a good idea that EN was due to be discontinued and arguably more people bough the EN since it was cheaper (and widely available even after it sold out from LEGO) and it still did about double its price despite this, same with IF. So it stands to reason that the Mods will do the same (considering more people would probably want mods over the EN and IF)

    You would think... but consider that double RRP for EN is $200, while double RRP for the modulars is $300.

    There is a larger market for a Lego set at $199 than there is at $299. As you go up in price, the market thins out, even more so for these sets.

    That being said, $299 is doable within a year of retirement, no matter how many have been set aside. Can it go higher than double RRP after year? Yes... but only time will tell.

    If TLG switches to releasing 2 modulars a year instead of 1 and keeping 4 on the market, it will cut into demand for the older sets since there is a practical limit to how many modulars the average person will want to have built at any given time.

    Even now, I think GG took a dip for awhile because there are 4 modulars out there that are very nice, how many people want 5?
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    I really like GE as it is a corner building and was designed to be expanded with more than one set. This adds value for me....hopefully it will for others as well.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Yes, it is a corner, but if the new movie theater is a corner, that blunts that a bit.

    Plus, when paying double RRP, not many people want to buy 2 of them. :)

    But yes, it helps, I agree...

    I still think long term, FB is the better bet, I believe that LEGO will do a Police HQ at some point, if FB is retired when that happens, it'll add to the value.

    Town Hall in the middle, FB on one side, PHQ on the other...

    Obvious win, isn't it?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,349
    edited October 2012
    Imperial flagship went up to 320-330 in the span of about 30 days, and that was WITH a sale at LEGO and a lot of stocks at online retail outlets..
    That was, for all purposes, as a 180 dollar set, AND a pirate ship, which, while there is a demand, I would say that Mods have a bigger demand.
    Plus I'm guessing many people will be caught off guard by GE going out before FB, even though there are still stocks at retailers.

    All mods are different and again GE is a corner store.. since the last corner store, Cafe Corner, is well priced out of many people's reach I would hazard to say GE is well to do rather quickly especially since it may appeal to some people more than a Cinema (if the Cinema is truly the next mod)

    But again this is all assuming that GE IS in fact done and not due to a glitch in the system, but I'm guessing if 3-4 LEGO reps say it is gone now Im more inclined to believe it.
    But again with a lot of stock who knows, it may just hang around at 250 until next winter...

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ That is the challenge. We don't know if Amazon or Walmart has 10,000 copies of these, or if overseas still has a ton shipment.

    So even if it EOLs now, that doesn't mean much in such a case.

    The modulars have already broken with the past, FB has been out a year longer than everyone expected, now if GE goes first, that will be further disruption.

    Which is fine, TLG can do what it wants, but they can also EOL it while stuffing the market full of them to leave lots of supply for a period of time. After all, if they called the LEGO buyer at Amazon and said, "we are EOLing this set, do you want a final batch of 10,000 of them", the answer might have been yes.
  • Penkid11Penkid11 Member Posts: 781
    ^The mere thought of 10,000 GEs O_o

    You do make a good point LFT. If this set is truly EOL I can see al the major retailers still getting a large shipment.

    Hopefully my nearest Lego Store will have some in stock this weekend. I want to have it just in case this EOL is for real.
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    I just phoned up customer services S&H and they wouldnt comfirm when GE was EOL but did they that it is highly likely that it will be available next year still. The IF was a great set. I sadly sold my last sealed one set last week, although I got £330 for it.
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    Just got my christmas catalogue through and FB and GE are included in there. This must surely be an indication of them continuing? The other possibilities of EOL... IS, BP, QAR, 10193 and 8043 excavator havnt been included.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    edited October 2012
    ^As stated by others, it is not a definitive indicator. Sets often disappear from the catalogue, only to reappear in the next issue.
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    No its not but Ive not had any indication of GE going EOL. There could be bias from the USA in that its already out of stock @ S&H and sales teams over there are making assumptions of it not coming back, likewise Im saying the opposite so I could have information thats biased for all I know.
  • BenxSmithBenxSmith Member Posts: 9
    Big red "SOLD OUT" in the Netherlands now, i'm going to make a call, edit in a bit <..>
  • BenxSmithBenxSmith Member Posts: 9
    BenxSmith said:

    Big red "SOLD OUT" in the Netherlands now, i'm going to make a call, edit in a bit <..>

    Seems i can't edit.

    My thoughts on the phone call:
    NO NO NO, GE is NOT going to EOL. The woman on the phone said they have more than enough left nor did she say they plan on dropping the production.
    Sad but true guys, move on.

  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    My guess is this is a production issue and they may make more to export to the USA. If this is true then we should be able to backorder in a week or two from [email protected] If they have no plans to do another run then obviously what Amazon, Target and TRU have in their warehouse is it for the USA. We may see both FB and GE gone by the end of this year / early next year. Only time will tell.
  • pmercikpmercik Member Posts: 55
    edited October 2012
    it seems #10217 is gone for good in UK/IE. I can search for it but then i get Page Not Found
  • DeadareusDeadareus Member Posts: 264
    UGH. I purchased enough this week to have over VIP 4000 points. The plan initially was to grab GE but more recently have been lusting over the haunted house so I was going to grab that instead.

    I currently do not own a GE and will be very sad if it is gone forever and I'll have missed out on RRP.

    I should just bite the bullet and spend the $150 on amazon now while I can.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 949
    edited October 2012
    The timing of this is right in align with a 2 year cycle. It is consistent with most other sets life span. I would not and am not surprised that it is gone and it may be gone for good.
    If the FB died last year as expected then this would be a no brain'er. If the production issues with FB is why it stuck around, then you can not expect every modular to slip because of that one snafu can you?
    However, I would not be surprised if LEGO kept the more popular modular buildings out for 3, 4 or more years. Given that theory, the GE could go and the FB would remain. You never know as the target audience is different for this line. That may give LEGO some confidence to experiment a bit.
  • forumreaderforumreader Member Posts: 97
    This is completely unsubstantiated, but I wonder if the GE situation is a production issue related to misproduced parts. I've seen this issue pop up a few times the last few weeks:image
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    GE is showing sold out in the US and is not appearing on websites of other countries that I have checked, but if you search for it, it appears as available in those countries. I'm guessing that it will be back sooner or later.
  • thecleatorthecleator Member Posts: 70
    I suppose it would make sense if LEGO is seeing huge Fire brigade sales due to re sellers hoarding them. Since sales have been strong they have maintained production. Where as GE has had similar sales to the Green Grocer and is being sold out in a similar amounts of time.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    The out of stock situation could be based on a lack of capacity to produce more at this point. It's not retired, just not available. And as soon as they can fit it in the schedule they'll crank it out.
    BrickarmorLegoFanTexas
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    I for one am banking on GE being available through next year. I know the arguments against it, but it seems more persuasive that TLG is in the midst of some market availability modifications that directly affect the modulars. But somebody's got to be wrong, and if it's me so be it. I'll know in a few weeks.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited October 2012
    @thecleator ^ I've wondered that too. Did resellers cause a bubble (for lack of a better term) in demand that isn't representative to normal demand for a set? And, if so, is it enough to skew the data LEGO (or WM, Amazon, Target, etc) is looking at and cause them to over produce (or for a retailer, to over buy) a set, or produce it longer than they would have done otherwise. I don't know if the reseller percentage is enough to do so, but maybe at certain times it is. Especially if you have a lot of people buying 10+ of a set at the same time.
  • SupersympaSupersympa SwedenMember Posts: 534
    pmercik said:

    it seems #10217 is gone for good in UK/IE. I can search for it but then i get Page Not Found

    @pmercik yes, it has been for a couple of weeks now. Gone for good!

  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,128
    ^ US not far behind. stores stopped getting shipped these items quite some time ago, so once the local LEGO store runs out, that's it. still some on [email protected] and all major retailers of course.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ That is the part you can't figure on...

    Amazon.com might have 10,000 Diagon Alley's left in stock, you just don't know... With a limit of 2 per customer per week, they could take a very long time to sell, with HP being "gone" from retail stores, people will stop looking for it.

    It is a risky move to own more than a few of them, IMHO.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    http://www.bricklink.com/catalogPOV.asp?itemType=S&itemNo=10217&itemSeq=1&itemQty=1&breakType=M&itemCondition=N&incInstr=Y
    I know not many folks (here) part out, but I'm starting to warm up to it. The part count for that set even at $150 is very appealing.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ Yup, I agree. DA may resell well, but I think there are more sure resellers in the $150 price range. I prefer sets that are not tied to a license (SW being an exception). A licensed product sells well while the book, movie, cartoon, are current, but typically don't do so well afterward. As you mentioned, kids forget. Or, more importantly are drawn to the latest fad. Now, some sets are timeless, like the Excavator. Every boy wants a dozer, a dirt digger, and a dump truck! :-)
  • alijoezacalijoezac UK, NottinghamMember Posts: 521
    #10217 Diagon Alley ... in the UK still in stock at Tesco Direct
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337

    http://www.bricklink.com/catalogPOV.asp?itemType=S&itemNo=10217&itemSeq=1&itemQty=1&breakType=M&itemCondition=N&incInstr=Y
    I know not many folks (here) part out, but I'm starting to warm up to it. The part count for that set even at $150 is very appealing.

    Plenty of folks part this out on ebay for the buildings and figs. I used to back in the day. It is profitable but time consuming. I am sure parting out by the piece is even more profit but also far more time consuming. Still I love this set and choosing a winner doesn't get much easier than 10217.

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    cloaked7 said:

    @thecleator ^ I've wondered that too. Did resellers cause a bubble (for lack of a better term) in demand that isn't representative to normal demand for a set? And, if so, is it enough to skew the data LEGO (or WM, Amazon, Target, etc) is looking at and cause them to over produce (or for a retailer, to over buy) a set, or produce it longer than they would have done otherwise. I don't know if the reseller percentage is enough to do so, but maybe at certain times it is. Especially if you have a lot of people buying 10+ of a set at the same time.

    I don't think so. I'm not hearing people say they have been stockpiling GE's. I think this has caught us all off guard.
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