Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

FollowsClosely

Penkid11 said:

Great. Just great. Is there any hope of it coming back in stock?

It is available in most other venues. Try amazon.

LegoFanTexas

Regarding GE, it does not seem to be rare or hard to find anywhere, so now is a bit early to panic.

If indeed it is going out, it will rise quickly in value once gone as no one was expecting it.

It is also why waiting until the very end is often not wise, some sets just disappear. If you want a set, buy it, don't wait for it to EOL.

doriansdad

Sold out on the US and Canadian site, available everywhere else. Didn't this happen last year as well and we saw a spike in sales prices on ebay for a week or so?

Pitfall69

I always buy a set that I really want almost right away. Modular Buildings being one of them. I also bought the Haunted House. This was brought up before about waiting for a sale and then missing out. It is still available on Amazon so...

Pitfall69

doriansdad said:

Sold out on the US and Canadian site, available everywhere else. Didn't this happen last year as well and we saw a spike in sales prices on ebay for a week or so?

For what set(s)?

Pitfall69

The strangest thing recently was the Kingdom Chess set not on the US S@H, but everywhere else. It didn't sell out, it just wasn't there. Now it's back again.

doriansdad

^ GE. I cannot remember if it was early this year or last year. I'm confident it is buried in this thread somewhere lol.

Pitfall69

doriansdad said:

^ GE. I cannot remember if it was early this year or last year. I'm confident it is buried in this thread somewhere lol.

Oh no!!! The horror!!! No way I'm looking for it...lol

madforLEGO

I doubt the DS is around for another two years... If it survives this Christmas I will be surprised. Just because something is in a LEGO catalog does not mean it will stay around. I think FB is going away, I hear too many 'sources' saying it is gone.
I also noticed the new Train set is listed under creator in the US LEGO S@H site.

doriansdad said:

^ I am really hoping TLG will be smart and replace the Death Star with another epic playset. I was thinking Jabba's Palace but obviously that won't happen as they released the system scale version. Cloud City would be nice.

A cloud city set would be nice.. not sure if there is enough 'action' but I'm sure something comparable could be done.

madforLEGO

stegmanco said:

Did anyone notice that GE is sold out on Lego? Will this come back, or is it sold out like the PoTC ships?

I can say one thing, right now there are those buying every last one from Amazon.com, Walmart, TRU and Target if that is the case.

I'm guessing it is just doing its usually accidental sold out thing. Eventually it will be back with a backorder status or something..I think GE actually 'sold out' last year around this time only to come back.I guess LEGO call center should be able to tell for certain

If not, Then I'm glad I bought a few more when the sales came up.

doriansdad

^ I am sure we will see some panic buying like we did last time. Minecraft back in stock on Amazon if anyone is interested.

doriansdad

Then again if the Cinema is a corner building then it may make sense for GE to be discontinued and FB to go another year.

madforLEGO

Pitfall69 said:

The strangest thing recently was the Kingdom Chess set not on the US S@H, but everywhere else. It didn't sell out, it just wasn't there. Now it's back again.

The notable difference here is the Kingdom chess set just disappeared.. the GE is there but 'sold out'

dougts

^ that feels like a bit of over-thinking to me. while this corner or not corner thing *could* be something LEGO would consider in determining EOL, I kind of am inclined to doubt it myself. Seems like it would be more about sales and possibly stock levels of already produced pieces.

madforLEGO

Well FB came out in 09 and by all accounts should have been EOL last Dec. It was not, and most speculation was it was not due to the parts thing.
Now GE, if following other EOL Mods should only be out for about 2 years then gone in the third year.. so if schedule is back to normal for GE then by all accounts it should be gone.. I doubt FB is staying either, my guess is that is gone as well and then the Mods are back to two a year (three if a new on is released until the oldest one goes)

stegmanco

Well I stopped waiting and bought my GE today on Amazon, if it comes back at least I have my copy and didn't wait another 2 months.

timinchicago

cloaked7 said:

^^^^^ @timinchicago Was the coupon part of the catalog or separate? I got my catalog yesterday and didn't see any coupon.

@Cloaked7 The coupon is always found on the back cover but my understanding is that it is not available unless you are near a LEGO store.

Pitfall69

@stegmanco
^That is the way to do it in my book.

FatMatt

@Cloaked7
I received a coupon I will not be using, and I could mail it to you if you would like.

gmpirate

doriansdad said:

^ I am sure we will see some panic buying like we did last time. Minecraft back in stock on Amazon if anyone is interested.

well, that was really brief then . . .

doriansdad

Called Lego customer service over lunch. They confirmed GE is sold out and is unavailable for backorder. According to this rep they will not be getting anymore. I bought from Walmart ship to store to cover myself. This could get very interesting.

Dougout

^This sounds fishy, FB has been missing from the past two catalogs and GE has been present. How often do we talk to customer service or managers that actually have the knowledge of when sets will be EOL...

doriansdad

^ Yep I am taking it with a grain of salt. Walmart can hold it for me for a few weeks until this blows over. I just don't want to get caught with my pants down.

madforLEGO

Dougout said:

^This sounds fishy, FB has been missing from the past two catalogs and GE has been present. How often do we talk to customer service or managers that actually have the knowledge of when sets will be EOL...

Again the catalogs do not dictate what stays and what goes.
I have seen catalogs released with sets that recently sold out before..
That being said it is a bit surprising for the GE to be gone if it is, but there are also reasons why it could be gone, just as many as if it should stay.

Pitfall69

I just picked up 50 from SMart. Remember, shop smart. Shop Smart. Got that?!!!

Pitfall69

Seriously, we shouldn't panic yet. This is very strange. Even if it is Sold Out at S@H that doesn't mean that there aren't loads everywhere else. I do find it interesting that out of all the Modulars on sale on Amazon, GE wasn't one of them.

Dougout

I just don't think it will be going away. It could, but I don't think so. I know my local stores have been getting regular shipments and the more likely candidate for EOL is FB. Last manager I asked said FB was going, but who knows who is right?

IMO, the sets being discontinued would be Imperial Shuttle, Motorized Excavator, Fire Brigade and Joust. One train will go, not Maersk though. Could be the regular cargo train, not the red one. I think it will be the passenger train now that the Horizon Express is coming out. They look so similar. The falcon, frigate and diagon alley were already EOL I thought. SSD, TB, GE, MMV, the volkswagon and shuttle expedition will stay another year at least. Death Star is the weird one, it may stay for awhile longer. I giver it another two years minimum.

madforLEGO

Pitfall69 said:

Seriously, we shouldn't panic yet. This is very strange. Even if it is Sold Out at S@H that doesn't mean that there aren't loads everywhere else. I do find it interesting that out of all the Modulars on sale on Amazon, GE wasn't one of them.

Well people need to remember a few things:
1) this is the time of year where stuff goes end of line.
2) GE has been out for about 2.5 years, which is what the mod timeline was normally before FB.
3) FB has been out longer time frame BUT that may well have been due to the parts issue.
4) When EN and IF went out there were stores with them in stock as well

Is GE gone? Will not know until it goes away from Shop@Home site for a while, BUT it is possible.

I would also like to know the reasoning behind the DS staying out for 2 years and how people could come up with that timeline I find it very unlikely it is out for another 2 years.
Because if I am not mistaken the Ultimate Falcon was out one year before that but it is long gone.. if anything DS has been out for a good long while already.

y2josh

^True, but the UCS Falcon was a terrible seller for TLG whereas the DS, so far as we can tell, continues to perform extremely well.

Dougout

Yes, the DS has been out forever, but it sells so well still. I don't think it matters much how long the set has been out as long as it is still selling very well. On top of that, the SSD makes the Death Star look really good if you compare them side by side, visually and in terms of part count. It seems to me that it would be better to let SSD go EOL before the Death Star. Also, the Death Star is just so iconic. It looks good displayed in the lego store or just sitting on the shelf in its massive box. I think it still brings in many customers, young and old.

cbaker1974

The GE went through a period last winter where it was "Sold out" online (several days)...reps online said it was gone and not coming back, but obviously that wasn't true.

Hard to tell these days, would need a few more days at "Sold out" status to be convincing.

Basta

I also think the popularity of Mini-Figures at the moment helps the Death Star's sales, as it has so many.

itsnotme

Dougout said:

Yes, the DS has been out forever, but it sells so well still.

Question - How do we know that DS is selling well? I see this kind of comment a lot and am genuinely curious as to the source of supporting data.

itsnotme

Dougout said:

IMO, the sets being discontinued would be Imperial Shuttle, Motorized Excavator, Fire Brigade and Joust.

Joust? Not sure I've seen that mentioned as a likely EOL before. It's been out less than a year. What makes you think it's going EOL so quickly?

Bandit

itsnotme said:

Dougout said:

Yes, the DS has been out forever, but it sells so well still.

Question - How do we know that DS is selling well? I see this kind of comment a lot and am genuinely curious as to the source of supporting data.

It's all assumptions and heresay, no one actually knows anything regarding sales figures. I personally think half the sets people say are 'terrible sellers' are selling just fine and meeting TLG's expectations.

mathew

I could see Joust being discontinued this year. It's not in the latest catalog, and it has the old horse.

y2josh

itsnotme said:

Dougout said:

Yes, the DS has been out forever, but it sells so well still.

Question - How do we know that DS is selling well? I see this kind of comment a lot and am genuinely curious as to the source of supporting data.

It's not concrete science of course, but the Amazon sales rank is a good baseline for determining how well various sets are doing. Just as an example... the $400 Death Star routinely achieves a much higher sales rank than the $60 Weathertop and the $80 Mines of Moria (though Weathertop is actually ranked a bit higher right now).

Diggydoes

GE is also gone from the german S@H page! The online retailer where i usually order also had only one more in stock (which i bought of course)! So either everybody's panic and buys all the copies from all sources or it's really gone!

berniebond

@diggydoes No, it's not.

BenxSmith

I don't think GE will be gone, it is still avaible on the store for me.
If so, i will have a nice year with 30 in stock.

FatMatt

Well, I guess it's closing in on that time of year where everyone starts bragging about how many of 10xxx sets they have, and starts posting photos:).

FatMatt

Allow me to post an image of my house under construction:

ericqqaazz

BenxSmith said:

I don't think GE will be gone, it is still avaible on the store for me.
If so, i will have a nice year with 30 in stock.

I agree. Nomrally, it keeps "Call to check product availability" for several days before showing "sold out" on the website. Therefore, I guess it might just sold out for the moment and has not yet checked the warehouse :) It would be restocked in a few days.

BTW, if it keeps saying sold out for more than three weeks and the webpage of 10211 is gone in the future. That will be EOL. ^_^

CCC

FatMatt said:

Allow me to post an image of my house under construction:

And we all know what happened to that ...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1215526/Lego-house-knocked-came-forward-save-it.html

FatMatt

Yes, we do.

Billybrown

Ive been told that FB will EOL 2013 and GE will be 2014. Although like most comments its very subjective. I've 32 of each set, in hindsight maybe I should have waited a little longer to purchase, although I did manage to buy the GE's for £85 last year, but paid full retail less VIP points for the FB's.

SirKevbags

@Billybrown What's the source for your information?

dragonhawk

Interestingly, at Walmart.com DA, FB, and DS are back in stock while GE remains OOS

Billybrown

@kevbags it was a lego employee. I'll take it with a pinch of salt but it will be interesting if both scenaros turn out to be true.

dougts

^ store employee or someone higher up?