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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • AmberylAmberyl Member Posts: 193
    I wonder if that's also an effect of the changing demographics of "who has disposable income". I suspect that Lego's revenues may come disproportionately from upper-middle-class parents, who are apt to spend generously on large sets on gift-giving occasions, and who routinely buy smaller sets for their kids just 'cuz.
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,288
    edited October 2012
    ^ correct... and Fire Brigade had the quality issue of the 39R1 batch which likely extended its production run.

    I don't know for sure that LEGO's product line is composed of proportionately more $100 than ever before. Afterall, CMFs are a huge market, and there are more polybags than ever before, also.

    But anyhow, let's just say that it is. The retail landscape of LEGO has also changed vastly over the past decade:

    1. With all the LEGO brand retail stores, LEGO is now selling directly to the customer more than they ever were before, and so they now have retail channels for bigger sets whereas previously (and to this day) traditional B&M stores eschew slower-moving large sets for quicker-moving, broader appealing smaller sets.

    2. The rise of e-commerce means it's cheaper to store large inventory in warehouses. This paves the way for offering larger sets. Walmart, Target, TRU, etc offer the large LEGO sets through their online stores, but not in stores.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Amberyl said:

    I wonder if that's also an effect of the changing demographics of "who has disposable income". I suspect that Lego's revenues may come disproportionately from upper-middle-class parents, who are apt to spend generously on large sets on gift-giving occasions, and who routinely buy smaller sets for their kids just 'cuz.

    This aspect is overlooked a lot I think...

    I see it all the time in my local Lego store, they are selling the Death Star every day, mostly to parents buying it for little Timmy.

    Now granted, this is perhaps a biased view, since I live in a rather well-to-do city, but still, there really are lots and lots and lots of parents who just buy this sort of stuff for their kids.

    A client of mine has 6 kids, age range from 11 to 16 including two sets of twins... All have smart phones... yes, they have 8 smart phones in the house!

    There are not 50 million such people, but there are apparently enough of them.
  • momof2boys99momof2boys99 Member Posts: 322
    I also think the NXT always does well as it is used for education too. I purchased mine from the Lego Education website.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    edited October 2012
    @rocao - So, is it your opinion that we'll see Fire Brigade and Grand Emporium go out at roughly the same time and that only the Fire Brigade's life was artificially extended, or do you believe that, because of the 39R1 issue, that all future modulars will see a three-year life span?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,349
    I think someone put out an EOL list some time ago that we are thought was bunk because it had FB going out I think on Dec 12, but I could have sworn that GE was also on that list as Dec 12..
    Now I'm being lazy but I think that list is in this thread, albeit about 130 pages ago...lol
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    edited October 2012
    The list you're referring to (http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/1008/offical-lego-discontinued-dates-direct-from-lego/p1) has GE going out in December 2013.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,096
    Well I picked up another MMV from Amazon. Not so much for re-sale (the market is probably over saturated anyway) but for MOC'ing. I just don't have the heart to part out the one I already built.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,796
    LegoFanTexas said:

    Amberyl said:

    I wonder if that's also an effect of the changing demographics of "who has disposable income". I suspect that Lego's revenues may come disproportionately from upper-middle-class parents, who are apt to spend generously on large sets on gift-giving occasions, and who routinely buy smaller sets for their kids just 'cuz.

    This aspect is overlooked a lot I think...

    I see it all the time in my local Lego store, they are selling the Death Star every day, mostly to parents buying it for little Timmy.

    I saw something very similar in the Lego store in Atlanta/Lawrenceville over summer. Older couple (obviously granparents) getting a set for their grandchild. Woman in front of me at the cash desk, on the phone presumably to the mother of the kid - "he doesn't know if he wants Hogwarts Castle or Diagon Alley". Husband "So one is 130, the other 150." Woman "he still cannot make up his mind". Man "Let's just get them both". They also had a smaller set too.

    Then at the till, cashier told them they can get three lots of three pick-a-minifig as they spent $300. Man: "How does that work?". Cashier: "You have to choose the parts of three minifigs and put them in here". Man "I have to choose them myself?". Cashier: "Yes". Man: "I don't want to do that". Cashier: "They are free with your purchase". Man: "Can you select them?". Cashier: "No, you have to choose them yourself". Man: "We don't want to do that". And they paid and left.

    And there was I thinking that many kids would have been happy with one pack of three minifigs as a an extra little gift sometime during the year.

    And the cashier said no to my obvious question, they had to be rung up at the time of the purchase.
  • SiESiE Member Posts: 237
    y2josh said:

    The list you're referring to (http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/1008/offical-lego-discontinued-dates-direct-from-lego/p1) has GE going out in December 2013.

    the same list that said Diagon Alley had another year which has now EOL'd in the UK.
  • Steve_J_OMSteve_J_OM Cork, IrelandMember Posts: 942
    ^ Are you sure about that? It's still showing up on [email protected] for me. I'm in Ireland, but our [email protected] tends to reflect that of the UK.
  • AmberylAmberyl Member Posts: 193
    I was pondering the cubic inches of warehouse space occupied by various sets. Using the box dimensions given on Amazon and their original RRPs, here's a look at a few examples, given as RRP, cubic inches, and cents-per-cubic-inch ratio:

    Death Star ($400): 3169 (12.6 cents)
    Millenium Falcon ($140): 1191 (11.8 cents)
    Fire Temple ($120): 1080 (11.1 cents)
    Police Station ($100): 1152 (8.7 cents)
    Ice Dragon Attack ($20): 206 (9.7 cents)

    Large sets have slightly higher efficiency, but if you measure your efficiency by inventory turns, like most retailers do (Amazon is a star example here), probably still come out less attractive.
  • pmercikpmercik Member Posts: 55
    ^^ but it's 'sold out' for a couple of weeks now
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,349
    edited October 2012
    y2josh said:

    The list you're referring to (http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/1008/offical-lego-discontinued-dates-direct-from-lego/p1) has GE going out in December 2013.

    Thanks @y2josh..
    I can breathe easier, sorry if I caused any panic, not that this list is guaranteed accurate, but it makes sense if GE will be around for another year.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 949
    madforLEGO said:

    ...
    I can breathe easier, sorry if I caused any panic, not that this list is guaranteed accurate, but it makes sense if GE will be around for another year.

    I just picked up my batch of GE, just in case...
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Amberyl said:

    I was pondering the cubic inches of warehouse space occupied by various sets. Using the box dimensions given on Amazon and their original RRPs, here's a look at a few examples, given as RRP, cubic inches, and cents-per-cubic-inch ratio:

    Death Star ($400): 3169 (12.6 cents)
    Millenium Falcon ($140): 1191 (11.8 cents)
    Fire Temple ($120): 1080 (11.1 cents)
    Police Station ($100): 1152 (8.7 cents)
    Ice Dragon Attack ($20): 206 (9.7 cents)

    Large sets have slightly higher efficiency, but if you measure your efficiency by inventory turns, like most retailers do (Amazon is a star example here), probably still come out less attractive.

    Lol, wow, some of you people have a lot of time on your hands :P

    Interesting analysis, however.
  • AmberylAmberyl Member Posts: 193
    Nah, that calculation only took a few minutes. Short enough to be a curiosity-satisfying detour. ;-)
  • Steve_J_OMSteve_J_OM Cork, IrelandMember Posts: 942
    pmercik said:

    ^^ but it's 'sold out' for a couple of weeks now

    Not for me it isn't...maybe it's temporarily sold out. When sets go EOL the listing from [email protected] usually disappears completely doesn't it?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,349
    ^--- True but it can sta online as 'Sold out' for a while as well... and I think the latest chess set proves it can disappear and only do so because of a glitch and not because it is sold out....
    Pitfall69
  • BenxBenx Member Posts: 2
    Am i missing something or is this topic dead for 5 days?
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^Lol to the moan & groan of some, I think you may have woken the beast.

    My question is if TB is going this Xmas season? Still no replacement for it, not even rumors.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ Think we figured TB was going this year but doesn't seem like it now.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    There's this, which I know "doesn't mean anything." Besides something.

    http://www.google.com/search?q=lego+2013+calendar+tower+bridge&hl=en&client=safari&tbo=u&tbm=isch&source=univ&sa=X&ei=uvp6UMXcLIOY8gTXoIGYDg&ved=0CDwQsAQ&biw=1024&bih=690#biv=i|0;d|uXo0Ir1lTHd9SM:
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    Yea that's the only set I have doubts on at this point. Its a winner, so would hate to guess wrong and miss the boat. Or vice versa and get stuck for over a year, a la MMV.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    I thought TB was due for EOL 12/2013. Maybe I am wrong?
  • BenxSmithBenxSmith Member Posts: 9
    I managed to pick up 5 Grand Emps. 5 Pet Shps and 5 Fire Brigades for $100 each today at ToysXl
    Pitfall69LegoFanTexas
  • Bosstone100Bosstone100 USAMember Posts: 1,394
    ^ What's ToysXl?
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    edited October 2012
    ^I'm pretty sure they're a Netherlands-based vendor along the lines of TRU.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    BenxSmith said:

    I managed to pick up 5 Grand Emps. 5 Pet Shps and 5 Fire Brigades for $100 each today at ToysXl

    Nice! You won't go wrong at those prices... Nice deal!
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I just noticed another theme out there that I hadn't really noticed before: Dino. I figure since I am just noticing it (I knew it was there, but it really flies under the radar), it may be one of those themes that quietly disappears in the next few months. Has anyone heard rumors of what the plans are for this theme?
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    If I'm not mistaken, there's nothing Dino in the newest LEGO catalog. I may have over looked it since it, um, flies under the radar, yes...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ I haven't seen much of it either, and I can't recall it in the store last time I checked, but I wasn't looking either.

    Dino should do ok once gone, but given that it hasn't been noticed much and hasn't had any promotion, it might be one of those themes that just quietly goes away with no one remembering it.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    The Dino sets are fantastic right now if you only want the bricks. Selling the dinosaurs by themselves takes a good chunk off the price of the sets. That said, I don't know how well this will translate into aftermarket value, but I'll be surprised if these aren't heavily discounted leading into Christmas. Even at 25% off, I'd pick up several of the larger sets just for the bricks.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,128
    as far as post-EOL goes, I put Dino in the same general category as other recent one/done non-licensed themes such as AC, PQ, and Atlantis (ok, two waves on that one, but the same principal).

    Dino likely has slightly better potential because of the dinosaurs, where those other lines had no such universal "hook" to them. Still, I don't see a lot of big money there to be honest. Not helping matters is that there isn't really any "must have" set in the lot that could be a potential winner later.
  • MandarineMandarine Member Posts: 31
    dougts said:

    as far as post-EOL goes, I put Dino in the same general category as other recent one/done non-licensed themes such as AC, PQ, and Atlantis (ok, two waves on that one, but the same principal).

    That's true, but have you tried to pick up any Agents recently? The Volcano and the Mobile Command Center seem to be doing well! But then again, I guess they might fit your " must-have" description?

    I think on that basis, Earth Defense HQ might do well, long term. City of Atlantis might also fit... The other thing about non-licensed sets that could boost their value, longer-term, is that they're seen largely as more kid-oriented. As a result, they are often overlooked by resellers for investment purposes who target short to medium term returns, and the AFOL market, and they are often the sets that are gifted to kids, so not many survive NISB, which also increases their scarcity for collectors in the long term... Just a thought. :-)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    I thought Earth Defense HQ was going to be a hit, but it was 50% off just too many times.

    I picked up a bunch of them, ended up with dozens of them. I'm struggling to sell them for RRP now, and it has been retired for months.

    If I wait until next Christmas, could I get more? Maybe... or maybe not. The challenge with that set is it could go up, or it could be forgotten. Right now people can still find AC in the stores, here and there, a set or three is on the shelf, which tells people it exists.

    So a parent and kid walk into B&N or TRU and find a Tri-pod, or the helicopter, or the Alien Mothership, buy it, enjoy it, then decide to go buy more.

    Fine, that drives demand. What happens when they are well and truly gone from all store shelves? What drives demand at that point? A few kids and parents who see it on old product catalogs? Sure. A few who bought one or two and waited too long to buy more? Sure.

    If you have 1 or 2 of them, sure, toss them in the closet and wait until next Christmas. What if you have 10 of them?

    I think this is something we don't discuss much here and probably should. Some sets make a great long term investment, if you have 1 or 2 of them, but terrible investments if you have 20 of them.

    You are correct, a few Agent sets have done well, but how many move at those prices? If they only sell 1 or 2 copies per month at those prices, what would you do with 20 of them? :)

    Just food for thought.
  • timinchicagotiminchicago USAMember Posts: 239
    I just received the winter LEGO catalog yesterday (with 10% off LEGO store coupon valid until 11/15!) and noticed that among the prominently featured sets were the Death Star, Tower Bridge, and the Maersk Train. Is it safe to say these sets will be hanging around through next year?

    Notable missing sets included Fire Brigade (at least the second catalog in a row that it has not been mentioned), Imperial Shuttle, and the Super Star Destroyer.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    ^ My best guess is Tower Bridge and Maersk Train will EOL 12/2013. Death Star I see a few more years yet. SSD I would also expect to be around for another 2 years. I do feel Imperial Shuttle and FB will EOL this year. Just a guess tho. Black Friday sale items should give a little more information on what is going and what is staying in my mind.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    LegoFanTexas said:

    I thought Earth Defense HQ was going to be a hit, but it was 50% off just too many times.

    I picked up a bunch of them, ended up with dozens of them. I'm struggling to sell them for RRP now, and it has been retired for months.

    I knew this set was not going to do very well but at 50% off and a Chrome minfig it was a good deal. I purchased 2, one to build and one to resell to pay for the whole deal. Between the chrome fig and selling one at75% of RRP I should achieve that goal.

    If a set is not a "10" I won't load up unless there is a huge AFOL fanbase (think Star Wars and Potter, but even Star Wars I am shying away from the non "10" sets nowdays). You are correct that we should all be calculating opportunity cost to determine the best investments.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    If Death Star is going to be around a few more years, they might need to do an update, those minifigs are looking really dated now compared to the 2012 sets...
    timinchicagoshikadi
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    ^ No need to change a winning formula. It would not surprise me in the least if the Death Star outlives the SSD.
  • hoyatableshoyatables Northern Virginia, USAMember Posts: 863
    timinchicago said:

    I just received the winter LEGO catalog yesterday (with 10% off LEGO store coupon valid until 11/15!) and noticed that among the prominently featured sets were the Death Star, Tower Bridge, and the Maersk Train. Is it safe to say these sets will be hanging around through next year?

    Notable missing sets included Fire Brigade (at least the second catalog in a row that it has not been mentioned), Imperial Shuttle, and the Super Star Destroyer.

    Wow. Excellent opportunity to pair the 10% off with Double VIP. Too bad I am out of items to purchase :-P.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    doriansdad said:

    ^ No need to change a winning formula. It would not surprise me in the least if the Death Star outlives the SSD.

    Fair enough... but of course many companies have taken that attitude over the years and allowed their products to become dated.

    It is fine for awhile, until it isn't, then it becomes obvious.

    Maybe this isn't one of those times, but it is worth keeping mind.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    ^ I am really hoping TLG will be smart and replace the Death Star with another epic playset. I was thinking Jabba's Palace but obviously that won't happen as they released the system scale version. Cloud City would be nice.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    I would have loved to have seen a $400+ Jabba's Palace, and I don't suppose that's out of question within the next ten years, but a nice UCS-style Cloud City would certainly suffice in the meantime.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^^^^^ @timinchicago Was the coupon part of the catalog or separate? I got my catalog yesterday and didn't see any coupon.
  • stegmancostegmanco Member Posts: 42
    Did anyone notice that GE is sold out on Lego? Will this come back, or is it sold out like the PoTC ships?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    Yes, this is very interesting seeing it came out after Fire Brigade.
  • Penkid11Penkid11 Member Posts: 781
    Great. Just great. Is there any hope of it coming back in stock?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    edited October 2012
    Again, this is very interesting. Usually it goes in stages like "check for availability" or "back ordered, expected ship date". It wasn't on sale, so I don't know what the heck happened.

    When amazon had their sale on Modular Building a few weeks ago, Grand Emporium was the only one not on sale. Does Amazon know something that we don't? Is this a trend we should be looking out for?
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