Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

Pitfall69

cloaked7 said:

^ I slightly disagree. True, you won't lose money on a 6212, but you aren't going to get $80-100 for them now. Sure, they're listed for that much, but not selling for that. I have one listed for $55 and it has no bids.

If the X-Wing were made and never made again it would be different, but LEGO always has a X-Wing. And, the newer one is most always better, so it really hurts demand for previous ones. Now, a UCS X-Wing would be different. But, I think they've made one of those already haven't they?

I never really understood this logic. I'm on my 3rd BMW in 6 years. I like the new car "feel" and most of the time they have upgraded from the previous version. For the most part they retain their value after a few years and people are still buying older ones for big money. Next time I'm in the market for a new car, I'll tell them that there will always be a BMW 5 Series for me to purchase so there is no reason to pay your insane sticker price.

Pitfall69

^I know, terrible analogy,but even though there are many of X-Wings to choose from, most of them come with exclusive minifigures. A collector will want all of them.

cloaked7

^ Good points. But, another thing that hurts the 6212 was that it was out for 4 years. Allowing most people to get it if they wanted. Course, not everyone does, but being out for that long means more supply.

Just saying, it's relative. There are better SW LEGO sets to bet on than the 6212. It's iconic and all, but was out of a long time and not as unique as most sets.

Pitfall69

^good points??? I just babbled incoherently and you kinda bought into it. I'd make a great politician.

cloaked7

I vote for that Kool-Aid candidate! :-)

Pitfall69

I'm sorry. My 2 year old is constantly diverting my attention and I just type and what you see is what you get...lol.

cloaked7

Ahhh. 2 year olds. Say no more! :-)

y2josh

Another problem with 6212 is that the only portion of it that's exclusive as far as the minifigs go is Wedge's helmet, so you don't even have the minifigs working to drive the price of that particular set up.

roxio

^isn't Hoth Leia exclusive in 6212

y2josh

I don't believe so. I'm pretty sure she was with 4504 as well. Not to mention she's in Echo Base (7879) with a more accurate hair piece.

roxio

^true, but there is one exclusive figure in 6212 - Hoth Han.......although there are similar incarnations in 7749 & 7879 , completists will need 6212.

Miles

This is a bit of a detour from the Star Wars discussion, but given that the Dino Theme and Monster Fighters are 'one-and-done' themes, how much longer will they be around and what kind of prices might they command in the future?

I can see monster fighters going up in value more than the Dino sets, though the dinosaurs themselves might fetch a high price. It's funny - I've always considered myself a dinosaur-nut, but I can't seem to get excited enough about these to pull the trigger. Maybe if I can find them on clearance? Any thoughts as to a good time?

cloaked7

From what I've read in the threads one common thought is that the Haunted House will do well. I agree. Not sure what most people think about the rest of the MF sets. Based on that, if I put money into getting MF for resale it would be the HH. I think that is a clear winner.

I guess the other MF sets might be profitable if you got them at a discount? Personally, I'm just not sure about some of the themes. I don't think Aliens, Atlantis, etc. has much resale value. So, one would think it would be the same for MF and Dino.

y2josh

^ and ^^ For MF, I think the Haunted House will do well, but I wouldn't ignore the Vampyre Castle or the Ghost Train, as those will both likely be winners as well. The others, I'm not so sure about.

@roxio - Though the wildly inaccurate Han is exclusive to that set, none of the pieces that constitute him are. If you really want Han to sport his Hoth parka and brown pants for some reason, you don't need 6212 to do it. Of course, to be fair, if it's a completist we're talking about, they probably want a copy of 6212 anyway.

The_Mack

cloaked7 said:

I don't think Aliens, Atlantis, etc. has much resale value. So, one would think it would be the same for MF and Dino.

It's because your not looking at Monster Fighters correctly. It's not the Fighter characters that are popular, it's the Monsters. And they will always be popular at this certain time of the year. Seasonal yes.. but always return in popularity.

Bumblepants

I think MF will be one of the better performing original themes just with all the unique zombie and vampire minifigs. Just look at how well the CMF Zombie does

nkx1

^I pretty much agree. I think MF is sufficiently unique and spooky that at least some sets will do very well, especially the Haunted House (obviously) and the Ghost Train (as y2josh noted). Perhaps even the Vampyre Hearse too...

DaddyDeuce

y2josh said:

^ and ^^ For MF, I think the Haunted House will do well, but I wouldn't ignore the Vampyre Castle or the Ghost Train, as those will both likely be winners as well.

Those are the sets I would focus on as well. LEGO train sets almost always do well in the aftermarket (with a couple of small caveats). Haunted House is going to be sought out after it EOLs as long as people still play with LEGO.

madforLEGO

Pitfall69 said:

^I don't think you will lose any money on #6212. You probably bought them on sale since you bought a few. You could get $80-100 for them right now. As far as #9493, I think it will do well after EOL, just not very well.

6212 goes for about 50 right now if you are lucky (that is after eBay and Paypal have their way with you of their fees). MAYBE around Christmas they may stretch to 60 but I doubt it will be much more than that.

Pitfall69

I didn't realize it was so low. I haven't checked in awhile.

madforLEGO

Pitfall69 said:

I didn't realize it was so low. I haven't checked in awhile.

Yeah, unfortunately due to high stockpiles of these, and the new one being out, and by all accounts a better X-Wing it just spelled doom for the X-Wing.. The same with 6209 when the new Slave 1 hit the shelves...

Deadareus

I think MF is an excellent investment. Classic monsters will NEVER grow old. There comes a time in each childs life when Monsters are incredibly intriguing, fun and scary all at the same time. Not to mention they theme has a perfect holiday for display that rolls around once a year.

I'll be sad if the series is just a one and done.

LegoFanTexas

Amazon just price-matched on Death Star again...

$335.99 with free shipping... Not a bad price! :)

nkx1

Hmmm, tempting on the Death Star. Not for me (not really into SW), but for resale. Decisions decisions.

Also, Maersk Train is $101 on Amazon currently. About the cheapest I've seen it other than TRU BOGO50.

LegoFanTexas

That is a good deal, 2 more of those for me. :)

FatMatt

Ditto:)

FollowsClosely

Missed that deal...

The_Mack

So do you think the TLG has changed its market strategy if #10188 stays even longer? It's in its 5th year. Is there a 6th or 7th year? Has any set ever been available as long as this? It's true it's an iconic set. MMV not as iconic, but a popular seller...is only 6 months younger than DS, and it's still going and going... Has the TLG wised up on leaving those sales/profits on the table?

madforLEGO

I saw the DS on sale last night.. Just could not pull the trigger on another.. Would have liked to but running out of room with everything else that has been on sale.

nkx1

^Based only on the fact that good-selling older sets are hanging around for much longer, I think the answer to your last question may very well be "yes".

I'm also inclined to think Lego can keep a few older sets around with little consequence, with the exceptions of expanded/increased production and distribution (in order to produce/distribute both new and older sets) and pissing off a few resellers. I think it's quite possible Lego may be able to have the best of both worlds- continuing to make money from the sale of older sets, while still producing new and exciting sets to keep their brand fresh.

There's only so much demand for Lego, though, so it's hard to say if keeping the older sets around for longer may detract from sales of newer products leading to overall lower profit. I'm sure the bean counters are hard at work calculating this stuff (or at least they probably should be).

madforLEGO

The_Mack said:

So do you think the TLG has changed its market strategy if #10188 stays even longer? It's in its 5th year. Is there a 6th or 7th year? Has any set ever been available as long as this? It's true it's an iconic set. MMV not as iconic, but a popular seller...is only 6 months younger than DS, and it's still going and going... Has the TLG wised up on leaving those sales/profits on the table?

LEGO has factors to consider, I think:
Part availability
Length of time the set is out, For License purposes maybe they want to keep the set out longer than usual
Is there a 'replacement' for the set (Price wise)
Demand

MMV is really a flexible set and can be used for many different things (even as a renfair for a City) so Im not surprised they are still out. I'm guessing eventually it is going to go though as others have noted the price is really good for that set. (Plus from the sound of things by my LEGO store they are not getting any MMV back in stock as far as they know.. for what that is worth anyway) That and the Jousting set takes it 'slot' on the shelf.

Im guessing the DS is nice BUT the SSD really takes it 'slot' on the shelves in terms of price.. Not sure LEGO really wants to have two 400 dollar sets for SW on its shelves.

As for FB I think the general feeling is the FB lasted an extra year due to the 39R1 lot Snafu where part bags were missing. Time will tell, but also makes you wonder if GE is due to go as well if LEGO reverts back to its normal length of time for Mods on the shelf.
I just cannot see LEGO going with 3-4 mods at one time now, but who knows.

cloaked7

^ You know, just wondering. About the 'slots' concept. Maybe LEGO doesn't care as much about that now. True, based on they way they have marketed product in the past one would think they need to open up a slot, by EOL'ing a set to make 'room' (a slot) for another set. What if they have changed that marketing concept? What if they are testing the waters and allowing multiple slots?

I say that, because it appears something like that is going on. Nothing says they have to stick with the same formula. I see marketing trying different methods all the time where I work. I think that is expected of them. Why do we expect LEGO to use the same formula year after year? Things are going to change. And, maybe even change back. I see that at work too. :-)

Bosstone100

I think the difference with the old modular formula and the "new" one is that now that the modulars are selling so well, why not keep them on the shelves. Green Grocer and Cafe Corner may not have sold as well since it was a new line. Plus, modulars haven't been out long enough to really have a formula.

Pitfall69

What will give us I good idea of what the current Modulars will be is how much it will be to Bricklink them. For people that will be new to the theme in a few years they will want to buy as many as they can afford. So question is, has anyone Bricklinked Fire Brigade or any other I'd the current Modulars? Probably not, but it would be interesting to see.

BrickDancer

I've looked into this already out of curiosity. FB would be cheap to BL for most of it since all parts current designs, such as Type 2 door frames. The parts that will be in rarity according to data as of today (If no future sets contain these in decent quantity) are the following:

Dark tan 1x1 plates, Dark tan 2x2 corner plates, Metallic gold Fireman's hat, pearl gray hose, red garage rollers, yellow 10L hose.

In particular are the dark tan 1x1 plates since they are so high in quantity, and the red garage door rollers since this is the only set that contains them and needed in decent quantity.

Pitfall69

I'm probably way off on this. It was just an idea. I just noticed that GG is about $200 more sealed compared to a Bricklinked one.

LegoFanTexas

FB is cheap to bricklink because it is a current production set.

Wait until it is 2 years out of print, then that will tell the tale.

LegoFanTexas

Of course, even then, it has to be expensive NISB before bricklinking it makes sense. After all, if it is $300 for a new in box copy of FB vs. $250 to bricklink it... really, who is going to do that?

Pitfall69

Well, that's what I mean. I'm saying once FB and maybe GE has been gone for awhile.

111ins

I have not looked at BL'ing the FB or any of the other new ones but I did do up the CC, MS and GG. The CC and MS were on the pricey side as some of the parts were getting expensive, even a year ago, once the dk blue arches and the doors were selling out. I ended up putting together 5x GG as I figured it would not take much more time than to make one. They ended up being about $160 or so each, much better than now. Also did the 10179, about $700 to do a year ago.
Point is, I guess, you can BL them but if there is only a few $$ difference in price, buy the nisb set. It will be more valuable in the long run, even if you actually build it, and sell it when you want something else.

PS, have you checked out the info on the new Arkham set? 10937, 1619 parts, guesses on the msrp?

Happy Turkey Weekend!

Pitfall69

I guess it was just a shot. I'm thinking out loud. What is Turkey Weekend???

111ins

Sorry, Canadian Thanksgiving is this weekend. Given the colder, northern climate, we get to have turkey before the US

Pitfall69

Interesting. I'll have to look at the history about that.

Deadareus

I think it may have something to do with an earlier harvest season? But that's just a guess.

We celebrate both Canadian and US thanksgiving in my house... for no other reason than thanksgiving is awesome.

Thanksgiving>Halloween>Thanksgiving>Christmas.. MAN I LOVE THIS TIME OF YEAR!!!!

Amberyl

I wonder if Lego's apparent strategy of keeping more successful sets out -- including the large sets -- is partially attributable to the change in the way people shop for toys.

Building toys are one of the few categories of toy sales that are growing at all, and they are overwhelmingly the biggest gainer (up 23% YoY from 2010 to 2011, vs. a decline in the overall toy market).

About 10% of toys are now purchased online, but the online channel strongly influences toy purchases even if the purchases are ultimately made offline. The online merchants don't have the same shelving concerns, since they don't have limited display space, and any warehouse limits they may have can still be buffered by just-in-time inventory from the manufacturer.

That suggests that Lego can have a bifurcated strategy where some sets are intended to be primarily sold through retailers, and the rest are intended to be primarily sold online. The modulars are great examples of sets which it might not make sense for most physical retailers to stock -- but which people will buy online. Lego only needs to have these units move at a rate where their own production-line capability and warehousing capacity lets them be profitable. If a production run of 10,000 is normally profitable, that means that over a year period, an average of 28 sets need to be sold each day.

LegoFanTexas

^ 28 sets of a single modular design, per day, worldwide, is nothing, that many probably sell per hour, every hour of the day, worldwide.

Of course, they don't sell evenly, some days 100 might move, other days, 5 might move, it ebbs and flows for a thousand different reasons.

Capital cost to keep a production line running is not free, so at some point the sales generated by 50 different slow selling sets is not actually worth doing, when compared against the profits to be made from 10 fast selling sets. Since capital investment isn't unlimited and changing over production to make different sets has some cost attached to it, however minor these days, drags down profits.

Amberyl

I think the sales volume is my point -- the modulars right now probably have good enough sell-through that they continue to be profitable, which means that it continues to make sense to produce them until the sales volume drops off to the point they're not comparable to other sets that have similar production and inventory costs.

I'd be curious to know what the typical sales curve of a Lego set looks like, taking seasonal variations into account.

rocao

^ Though I don't disagree that TLG has flexibility in production runs, there are a lot of assumptions made to arrive at your theory. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it sounds like you are:

1. Observing the lengthy shelf life of larger sets. (Fire Brigade, Death Star, and maybe MMV?)
2. Associating how well regarded the designs of the sets are
3. From that, assuming they are among the best performers

And from this constructing your theory that 3 has caused 1: "These are the best performers, and their production runs have been extended."

Here is the list of top 10 sets by revenue for 2011:
1. 7498 Police Station
2. 7965 Millennium Falcon
3. 7913 Clone Trooper Battle Pack
4. 7929 The Battle of Naboo
5. 8547 Mindstorms NXT 2.0
6. 7914 Mandalorian Battle Pack
7. 2507 Fire Temple
8. 2260 Ice Dragon Attack
9. 7288 Mobile Police Station
10. 4842 Hogwarts Castle

http://www.brickset.com/news/article/?ID=2809

Wouldn't these be the sets that have extended production runs?

Just because modulars have performed well in the aftermarket does not mean they are the cash cows for LEGO. I'm not saying they do poorly for LEGO, I'm just asserting they are not being granted stays of execution purely due to sales.

LegoFanTexas

^ 2507 has been extended, that one was supposed to end last year, and yet they kept making it. They did kill 2260 for some reason, that had to be a fairly cheap set to make, the Dragon head mold was already made and they reused it anyway, so why not.

Overall, I'm not really surprised by any of it, other than perhaps Hogwarts Castle, but I guess that would be the iconic set of HP overall, and it is expensive enough that if it sells at all, would generate good numbers.

NXT doesn't surprise me at all, that set sells very well all the time. I see it sell in the Lego store all the time to normal retail customers, and it remains one of the best selling Lego sets on Amazon.com

It just isn't a very investable set because as soon as 2.0 ends production, 3.0 will come out, so there won't be any real value in the older version.

Also, that list makes clear, Star Wars isn't going anywhere, and will continue to do well in the future. Perhaps 7965 will make a good investment when it finally does retire. :)

cbaker1974

So far only the Fire Brigade has lasted past its prime (we can make calls on the other sets after the holiday season)...so there's not necessarily a guarantee that the lifecycle for modulars has been bumped up.

Death Star - there is a precedent for a large "trophy" set being produced for multiple years in the Star Wars line - see #10030 Imperial Star Destroyer.

Last year the Emerald Night and Imperial Flagship went out during their "predicted" timeframes...I'm not sure we have enough data to really say that TLG is changing their shelf-life for sets. Once we make it through the end of the year we'll have more insight.

What is different however is that we now have a larger range of $100 sets currently in production than ever before...this seems to be a product of increasing design quality that has been trending for a few years coupled with Lego's recent sales growth.