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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • AmberylAmberyl Member Posts: 193
    I would point out that Lego seems to ensure that there's always a fire station of some sort available for City, right? So it might stand to reason that the FB will remain available far longer than even the modulars that come later in the sequence, because it may end up being a gift that people continue to get their kids when they want a really *big* fire station, despite the 16+ age mark.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    I've been keeping track of stock for Fire Brigade and Pet Shop. Even at $179.99, people are still buying them.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Pitfall69 said:

    I've been keeping track of stock for Fire Brigade and Pet Shop. Even at $179.99, people are still buying them.

    Why does this surprise you? At anything less than 10 cents a part, it will continue to sell at a rapid pace. Not as rapid as at 5 cents a part mind you ($111 was 5 cents a part), but it will keep selling.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    I'm not surprised per se. This is just solidifying the fact that Modulars will always do well.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    I really don't think FB will ever get to Green Grocer prices, but it should do well. Grand Emporium will not do as well as CC obviously, but because it is a corner building, it should hold its own. Although Pet Shop is one of my favorites, I don't see it doing as well as FB or GE. The more people become aware of the Modular Series, the less they will net you in the aftermarket in my opinion. I didn't mention Town Hall because it has a long way to go til EOL and it is $50 more than the last series of Modulars.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    The only problem with PS is that it is a bit generic, you have to get it if you're buying them *all*, but once you decide you won't get them all, it becomes easy to leave that one out. Which is a shame, because I think it is one of their better ones, price being equal, I'd buy PS before GG, which I know a lot of people would not agree with me on.

    Town Hall will do just fine in retirement, the part count alone will help with that. Some people (myself included) just like high part count sets. :)

    FB is the clear winner, even with all the resellers. Or at least I hope. What we need now is a Police HQ Modular, that will seal the deal. :)
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002

    The only problem with PS is that it is a bit generic, you have to get it if you're buying them *all*, but once you decide you won't get them all, it becomes easy to leave that one out.

    I have to disagree on this, because once you decide you don't have to have them ALL, Pet Shop is the one you REALLY need because it prevents you from HAVING to have an even number of buildings. Until they make another modular that's two 'half' buildings, Pet Shop is the one structure that really gives you a little wiggle room on how you'd set up your block.
  • MilesMiles Member Posts: 51
    Does anyone have an EOL estimate for the DC/Marvel Superhero sets?

    We know that LEGO is releasing a second wave of the Superhero line for 2013; will these new sets 'push out' the older ones released this spring? Or will they just overcrowd the market?

    I'm thinking of picking up some Batman sets, (Batcave, Two-Face Chase, Joker's Funhouse, ect.) but I'm not sure just how long I can comfortably wait before doing so.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    I would expect the first wave to last through 2013.
  • arock68arock68 Member Posts: 15
    I can't imagine that there would be two different Batman themes available simultaneously. My prediction is that the DC Super Heroes will retire mid-2013, and then the new Dark Knight figures will come out late Q3 or early Q4 in time for the holidays.
  • Penkid11Penkid11 Member Posts: 781
    edited September 2012
    No, there won't be two different Batman themes. The SH theme is an "any-continuity" theme much like Star Wars... well to a point, at least.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    Scenario: DS goes, IS stays. Eh? "Never gonna happen... B Wing... etc etc" I know. But what if?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    I have an announcement to make. I have changed my profile picture.

    Now back to your regular scheduled programing :)
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    edited September 2012
    I thought off-topic comments were our regular scheduled programming. That's the only reason I follow this thread. :)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    edited September 2012
    Yeah, me too. It's not like we learn anything with all these random guesses.

    Just kidding ;)
  • momof2boys99momof2boys99 Member Posts: 322
    ^ very nice pic
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Looks like #4866 (HP Knight Bus) could be gone. I'm betting PotC, Cars and HP will be the sale items at this year's BF sale. Those themes can't be doing too well. That said, the licensed themes are always dependent on the agreements between TLG and said companies. Of the three, I personally like PotC the best by far (argh!) and my kids feel the same way. But there's been nothing new released this year (or forecasted to be released next year) from PotC or HP. They gotta be on the EOL short list...
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    ^I feel like Knight Bus will do well because of the purple bricks alone, but I think Harry Potter in general could be in the same boat with Ninjago, where I don't think holding it past next Christmas would be the best idea. And honestly, just as with Ninjago, I'm on the fence as to whether or not to even hold them that long.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    HP should do ok over time. It see it like Indiana Jones, never a massive hit, but slow and steady.

    A few HP items will clearly do better than others, Diagon Alley, Knights Bus, Hogwarts Train, Hogwarts Castle (the last version), The Burrows, etc.

    Right now, Hogwarts Train and The Burrows are selling for good money, probably as good as they'll ever get other than rising slowly with inflation. Why? Because once all HP is gone completely, there will be nothing to remind anyone new it ever existed. People buying current sets on the shelf, decide they want more, go online and find it at double RRP. Some buy it, some don't. But once no one is buying it on retail shelves, who is searching online for it?

    Far fewer people.

    I have already sold all my Hogwarts Express trains, and I'll have all my Burrows sold by Christmas. I have 10 Diagon Alleys and 10 Hogwarts Castles, and that is it, buying no more.

    My 2 cents worth. :)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    Looks like #4866 (HP Knight Bus) could be gone. I'm betting PotC, Cars and HP will be the sale items at this year's BF sale.

    Cars probably sells ok at retail or at a discount, but I don't see it rising over time, I don't think the line has adult fans willing to pay over RRP for it.

    PotC seems an odd thing, none of the sets are really that interesting to me, other than the ships of course which will do very well I'm sure, double RRP within 6-12 months. The rest of it? Amazon has had much of the line on sale here and there, including Whitecap Bay, for 30% off, and they can't sell them out.

    I have a few of each, just to carry a bit of everything, but I'm buying no more.
  • AmberylAmberyl Member Posts: 193
    As someone who's bought most of the PotC sets, I actually think that they're awesome and were fun builds and interesting designs. But you certainly don't get that idea from just looking at the boxes.
    Si_UKNZ
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,356
    edited September 2012

    HP should do ok over time. It see it like Indiana Jones, never a massive hit, but slow and steady.

    A few HP items will clearly do better than others, Diagon Alley, Knights Bus, Hogwarts Train, Hogwarts Castle (the last version), The Burrows, etc.

    Right now, Hogwarts Train and The Burrows are selling for good money, probably as good as they'll ever get other than rising slowly with inflation. Why? Because once all HP is gone completely, there will be nothing to remind anyone new it ever existed. People buying current sets on the shelf, decide they want more, go online and find it at double RRP. Some buy it, some don't. But once no one is buying it on retail shelves, who is searching online for it?

    Far fewer people.

    I have already sold all my Hogwarts Express trains, and I'll have all my Burrows sold by Christmas. I have 10 Diagon Alleys and 10 Hogwarts Castles, and that is it, buying no more.

    My 2 cents worth. :)

    Agreed, While some HP sets have been huge (shrieking shack, graveyard duel, etc..) it all really depends if LEGO re-releases the line in the future. Burrows went up because really they did not make that many when you look at the rest of the line, also many of the sets were 're-dos' from the last run, and the Hogwarts Express may do OK, but again that I think is more due to it being a train then anything (after all the TS train seems to be doing well despite the massive amounts they had, even after the clearance price on them) otherwise I'm not sure how well it will do once out of the limelight (which is probably why they are having a harder time getting these other sets sold). I think Diagon Alley will go up, mostly because you can use the sets with other themes as well (plus the price was prohibited for many, but may not be when they go away), as for the castles....well I would say if they do not sell at least there are some nice castle type pieces to use to build a big castle.




    ....PotC seems an odd thing, none of the sets are really that interesting to me, other than the ships of course which will do very well I'm sure, double RRP within 6-12 months. The rest of it? Amazon has had much of the line on sale here and there, including Whitecap Bay, for 30% off, and they can't sell them out.

    I have a few of each, just to carry a bit of everything, but I'm buying no more.

    I have PoTC sets mostly due to the parts in them, I thnik they work well if you are trying to build older town type layouts and whatnot, same with whitecap bays with their light brick and all of the castle tower type pieces.. nice sets if you want to build a pirate layout without relying on it being PoTC.
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,821
    Amberyl said:

    As someone who's bought most of the PotC sets, I actually think that they're awesome and were fun builds and interesting designs. But you certainly don't get that idea from just looking at the boxes.

    I agree.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    richo said:

    Amberyl said:

    As someone who's bought most of the PotC sets, I actually think that they're awesome and were fun builds and interesting designs. But you certainly don't get that idea from just looking at the boxes.

    I agree.
    I understand, but that does not appear to be translating into sales, which is all that really counts for the purposes of this thread. ;)
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    I think the non-ship PotC sets' aftermarket values will be determined in the same way as LotR's. If people are after these minifigures, they could appreciate nicely, otherwise I see it as being a slow climb.

    As for personal taste, the ships, of course, were great (and I don't hate the Pearl nearly as much as some of you), but as far as the other sets went, I really only enjoyed The Mill and Isla de Muerta.

    But as a line... they really missed the boat. Port Royal should have been made for sure, as well as the Flying Dutchman. And just as an 'in general' gripe... they really need to come up with a better way to do minifigs in dresses. Elizabeth shouldn't TOWER over the other minifigs.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ They might be saving Port Royal and Flying Dutchman for the next movie release. Johnny Dept is doing at least #5, and is optioned for #6, so I've read.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Thoughts on Tower Bridge? Staying or going this year?
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    Its interesting to see how BP has sold out S&H in US yet still available in the UK. While Harry Potter 4842 Hogwarts Castle is still plentiful in the US and hard to find in the UK unless paying more than RRP. You would think that Lego would shift supplies in opposite directions so that they sell out of the lot. That way they would never have to do a sale on either item should there be stock left during BF or Christmas.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ It costs time and money to move supplies around. Sometimes it just makes more sense for a company to discount items by 30% and move on, than to play that game.

    The sales at 30% off are a sure thing, moving inventory from place to place, does not ensure a sale, or a quick sale in any case.

    Besides, the boxes and UPCs are different from Europe to the US, so retail stores are not going to be able to take the European versions, they won't have the UPCs in their database, and while they can be added, the boxes look funny without the part count and descriptions. :)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,356
    edited September 2012
    I'm guessing TB is gone, but it is just a guess.
    More than likely if you see them on BF sale, they are gone.
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    Some good points there LFT. I cleared out the last of Tesco's stock at £79.99 but have been considering trading with those that have supplies in the US. Walmart wont deliver to the UK. Based on what you have said I had been thinking that I could sell on ebay UK, and notify European buyers that they will be non European versions.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ Which sets? Black Pearl and Hogwarts Castle are both too large to ship them from the US to the UK one at a time and have it make any sense. At least from what I've seen, unless you have a super secret shipping option I don't know about. :)

    UK to US and US to UK seems to be one of the most expensive shipping routes in the world for some reason, it is crazy!
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    I have an account with UPS and they are usually quite economical for me as I send 10+ items per week giving me 75% off there top wack prices. It wouldnt be economical 1 at a time but I think it may be viable on say 10 sets that would probably weight less than 25kg as a job lot. There are import costs to consider of course.
  • AmberylAmberyl Member Posts: 193
    An interesting question... What other sets/themes have not done well, but like PotC, were basically interesting, fun-to-build sets?
  • turtle1173turtle1173 Member Posts: 230
    Do you think Lego will reveal something to replace TB first, or will they EOL it and come up with something later? It seems some were anticipating a "replacement" for TB when news for the New train was released. But that obviously is not taking TB's place.

    On that note, do you all think Maersk will go out this year?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ Maersk might or might not have another year, who really knows... 10155 came and went, and then came back, then went again, so go figure. :)

    As for TB, didn't it come out before Taj Mahal went out?
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,702
    ^ Christ, you're right.......just! About two months overlap. TB was like October/Novermber 2010. Taj went about the same time but [email protected] managed to find a handful for the Christmas sale.
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    I would hazard a guess to say that TB will stil be around next year. Must be a hot seller especially with the coverage it was given for the Olympics. I think it has room for another year, maybe 2, but who knows? Id speculate that Maersk will be another year, it hasnt been reproduced like the 10155/10152 so still has more track ahead of itself.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ Eiffel Tower and Taj Mahal were both out 2 years, were they not? Tower Bridge has now been out 2 years.

    It is time, unless Lego has decided to change how long sets are out on the market.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    ^Which FB, MMV and the DS would suggest they have.
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    Its just my gut instinct. Its becoming less predicable (with the examples above) and I imagine lots of christmas requests for this set post Olympics. I wouldnt complain if it were EOL as I have a good number and not looking to purchase anymore.
  • cbaker1974cbaker1974 Member Posts: 150
    I think TB will stick around past Christmas, mainly due to the notion that another landmark set has not been announced yet. While there was overlap on the shelves with TB and Taj Mahal, the TB had been announced well in advance of its appearance...that we haven't heard anything yet would seem to support the TB staying until at least the spring retirement cycle.

    Maersk Train...feels like it may hang around a little longer as well, but maybe the Horizon will be its replacement, hard to tell. Of the trains I think the Yellow Cargo train is the goner for this year.
  • LegoPodcasterLegoPodcaster Member Posts: 115
    For any new LEGO investors checking out this forum I thought I would post this. I talked with Jeff and Ed Maciorowski, the founders of Brickpicker.com, about the basics of LEGO investing. We discuss the best time and place for sales, where to buy and sell, and much more. I think all LEGO investors will gain some new insight into the world of investing after listening to Jeff and Ed.

    You can hear the episode here:
    http://netcaststudio.com/interview-with-jeff-and-ed-maciorowski/
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    I was listening to it and my wife said it was like listening to nails on a chalkboard, so I had to turn it off. They weren't really saying anything we don't already know, but I guess for a newbie it was ok.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    edited October 2012
    What are your thoughts on TC-14 coming back? Free, with the purchase of the UCS B-Wing. Do you think current TC-14 values will decrease?

    I personally don't think values will fluctuate that much because a lot of people aren't going to buy the B-Wing and if they do, they'll grab it at a discount.
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693
    arock68 said:

    I can't imagine that there would be two different Batman themes available simultaneously. My prediction is that the DC Super Heroes will retire mid-2013, and then the new Dark Knight figures will come out late Q3 or early Q4 in time for the holidays.

    Of course the sets will overlap. Dak Knight sets will be in stores in a little over a month - second week of November is when Toys R Us and LEGO Stores should start receiving the first of the 2013 batches.
  • Penkid11Penkid11 Member Posts: 781
    Ma1234 said:



    Of course the sets will overlap. Dak Knight sets will be in stores in a little over a month - second week of November is when Toys R Us and LEGO Stores should start receiving the first of the 2013 batches.

    At least half of it. Probably Ninjago, and Space Quest. Possibly Friends, but one thing is for sure. They will keep LoC and All licensed themes back I'm sure.
  • DiggydoesDiggydoes Cologne/GermanyMember Posts: 1,076
    In Germany it's a free TC-14 for every Star-Wars purchase over 55€ (at least in the TLG store in Cologne)!
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 5,835
    edited October 2012
    Looks like HP is about to leave [email protected] in the US. Castle and KB are 'call to check availibility'. Glad I was able to find good clearance bargains on them over the summer. Hoping Diagon Alley hangs in there at least until free shipping starts in a couple of weeks.

    Is it reasonable to hope these double in value by this time next year?
  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,335
    ^double rrp might be pushing it a bit - its all relative to the purchase price - I've shifted a couple of castles in the UK for double what I paid (£67)
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