Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

dragonhawk

^At 2 per customer ? It is going to be a while when they have 999+ in stock.

My guess is there will be more than 100 left in stock when they bring the price back to $149.99

Pitfall69

The Town Hall sold out at $161 and that was only 19% off.

Pitfall69

The Town Hall sold out at $161 and that was only 19% off.

As far as the Pet Shop, I just picked up 2. This is the first time I saw it on sale for this price on Amazon.

LegoFanTexas

Faedian7 said:

With the current deals in place on the PS would you recommend going ahead with picking up a copy? I was thinking I would wait another year before I grab one.

Can you afford to leave it in the closet for 2 years?

I bought 2 at this price, I did not have any saved before. I can put them in the closet and ignore them for awhile, but that is a personal choice.

LegoFanTexas

dragonhawk said:

^At 2 per customer ? It is going to be a while when they have 999+ in stock.

My guess is there will be more than 100 left in stock when they bring the price back to $149.99

Yes, but general sales to general customers should really pick up at that price. It only has to be posted on one of the "deal sites" for a few hours to really hammer out.

Plus, there are resellers on here with 5-10 Amazon accounts, so they can buy 10-20 of a set like this at a time. I personally don't do that, but there are sellers who do.

Faedian7

LegoFanTexas said:

Faedian7 said:

With the current deals in place on the PS would you recommend going ahead with picking up a copy? I was thinking I would wait another year before I grab one.

Can you afford to leave it in the closet for 2 years?

I bought 2 at this price, I did not have any saved before. I can put them in the closet and ignore them for awhile, but that is a personal choice.

I'm not intending to resell as this is just for my personal collection. I was just thinking I could use this money for other things like the GE (if a sale pops up) and hold off on PS until next year for a comparable sale.

LegoFanTexas

Oh... You're unlikely to find a much better price, ever...

One in the hand vs. two in the bush, so to speak... And the PS ranks #2 behind the FB in my favorite modulars, in my personal opinion, so it is worth the purchase.

brickupdate

@Faedian7 Pet Shop is maybe my favorite modular... I love the flexibility of having two small buildings. For $111, it's a great deal that you won't match very often.

Odindusk

I would love to know the factors involved in these modular discounts. You have the oldest available modular (FB), and a recent one (PS) on deep discount. But the one that falls between the two (GE) is sitting stubborn at full retail. These discounts seem so random most of the time. =)

Pitfall69

LegoFanTexas said:

Oh... You're unlikely to find a much better price, ever...

One in the hand vs. two in the bush, so to speak... And the PS ranks #2 behind the FB in my favorite modulars, in my personal opinion, so it is worth the purchase.

I agree. With the Pet Shop you get 2 buildings in one. The Fire Brigade is my favorite as well. It's the only one my 2 year old and 7 year old nephew ever plays with (yes, I know, most of you wouldn't let any kids around your Modulars).

cbaker1974

The pet shop is a nice one to have multiples of if you are building a street, since you can make the multiples into row houses or apartments.

BuriedinBricks

I don't think you will ever

Faedian7 said:

With the current deals in place on the PS would you recommend going ahead with picking up a copy? I was thinking I would wait another year before I grab one.

I don't think you will ever see PS much cheaper than this, outside of extremely special circumstances.

Pitfall69

You can't go wrong with grabbing FB and PS at these prices and for people that live in states with no sales tax, it is a no brainer. I pay my sales/tax at the end of the year so...

I grabbed PS on sale at only 10% from Lego [email protected], so this is a steal for me. I have a few Fire Brigades, the problem is the varying condition of the boxes. Great parts sets, so I will tear open the damaged boxes and build some MOC's.

Pitfall69

Bottom line, I don't think you can go wrong with any of the Modulars that are currently available. Some will do better than others, but they just might be the most popular theme Lego has ever come out with.

doriansdad

dragonhawk said:

I am curious to know everyone's end goal as far as reselling. Obviously not every set is UCS MF or EN. So what price is the sweet spot to sell, 1.5xRRP, double RRP, triple RRP ? How long do you hold on to your sets to reach that price ? 1 year, 2 years, 3, more ? What is the threshold ?

I try to get between $50 - $100 profit per unit sold. Therefore I aim for sets around the $100 range on discount (your EN, MMV, FB etc and hopefully soon Diagon Alley). These are my meat and potatoes. I do have some TB, IS, IF, and will purchase some Death Stars but at much smaller quantities. I also have to keep in mind my shipping size and international size restrictions when selling so box size plays a big role for me and what I can bundle in one shipment to my overseas customers. I hold for around 1 year and aim for close to 100% profit after all fees. Really trying to ramp up next year and in 2-3 years let my son take over alot of the operation. We enjoy Lego, enjoy business and enjoy making some walking around money and spare funds for sets we have missed 6-7 years ago.

FollowsClosely

They all sold out fast. Probably a good thing since I have enough FBs and GEs. Generally I get 10 of any set I think will do well, regardless of price. I don't mess with anything under $100.

pmercik

Is Minecraft gone for good ? I can't find it at [email protected] I had one week holiday and already lost the track on what's going on...

Renny

That set sold out back around June/July. It pops up once in a while at Amazon and is gone in a blink of an eye. Lego has stated they will probably get more for the Holiday season but haven't see anything yet. Sells on average for $90+ on ebay.

Billybrown

66 is just about on par with how many EN's I purchased. I have sold 38 EN's since EOL, so used a lot of that money to buy IS's. I paid around 169 Eur for each IS so not a bad price. In effect for every EN I sold I was able to buy an IS. I also sold 6 x IF, 18 x 8053's plus a number of other sets, which allowed me to finance the IS's. Had I been around to buy MF's then it would have been another ball game again. The one that really got away for me was the Taj Mahal, I remember looking at the model at a friends house thinking, thats going to make serious money. I had my credit card ready to buy 30 at RRP must have been around Nov 2010 but bottled it as I had never bought that many before, I never have a happy medium its all or nothing. I left it for a Month and they had all gone before christmas 2010.

99% of what I have is lego. So if the lego bubble bursts then Im in trouble, but I think its a nice gamble. I have a wide range of sets so its not just about the IS and EN's. Im hopeful that I will sell a few winter toy shops prior to christmas but they are selling for between £69 and £75 at the moment so waiting for the £90-£100 mark. I did build a death star so hopefully getting a few more, definately my favourite set and Im trying to justify spending £800 to build the 10196 carousel but havnt bit the bullet yet. I love that set.

Technics are a funny one. I have some technic 8258's left - originally bought 8, but those are such a slower seller and I paid full RRP at the time. I feel that 8043's will also be a slow seller EOL, but the hefty Argos discount was something I couldnt resist. There was no way I was going to pay full RRP for 8043.

Billybrown

Minecraft is sold out just about everywhere in the UK, I dont know of many stockists either. S&H not available until 23 Nov 12. Prices are going for between £55 and £70 which will only keep going up until 2 weeks prior to the 23rd when people will decide they can put up with a 2 week wait, so its finding the right profit margin between now and then in relation to how many units you have. Would be interesting to see what there availability will be 1 week prior to christmas. My objective is to make 90-100% gross profit on most lego sets.

I was told by a store manager that lego need to re-apply for the licence in order to place a new order (Cuusoon) , which is one reason why we have these periods of being out of stock. Might be true, then again we get told different scenarios all the time.

Pitfall69

I guess Pet Shop Sold out first because I only got 1 in my order and 2 Fire Brigades. No harm in that I guess. I also picked up a Town Hall for $161 a few days ago.

Bosstone100

Guess I missed the Pet Shop and Fire Brigade sales. I got two FB from TRU at about $254. Would have been better for $222.

Faedian7

Looks like I missed the boat on Pet Shop for now...which probably was a good thing so that I can manage to get some more brownie points with the boss (wife). At least I managed to pickup a FB which was my main goal before it goes EOL. Do you guys think GE will go EOL this year or next seeing the trends with fire brigade and all?

Farmer_John

^Depend on how the GE is selling. I think the FB is more playable as a set than the GE, so it is possible the GE could go first. With the release of the TH, EOLing a modular set wouldn't be out of the question. The question is will it be the FB or GE? Could be the GE...

dragonhawk

LegoFanTexas said:

Yes, but general sales to general customers should really pick up at that price. It only has to be posted on one of the "deal sites" for a few hours to really hammer out.

Plus, there are resellers on here with 5-10 Amazon accounts, so they can buy 10-20 of a set like this at a time. I personally don't do that, but there are sellers who do.

You are right, I saw the add on those sites and sure enough FB and PS were out of stock soon after.

I was tempted to buy a few myself to get my toes in the water so to speak. However, I had to agree with the poster who thought FB was oversold and probably wouldn't reach 2x RRP in 1 year after EOL. But then again what do I know, I am just observing from the sideline ;)

Pitfall69

What is going to push the Fire Brigade to possibly reach 2x RRP is because it IS a fire station and if Lego puts out a Hospital or Police Precinct that will drum up more interest in Fire Brigade. Resellers make up such a small portion of Lego buyers. Even though so and so has 100 Fire Brigades it really doesn't matter. Don't NOT buy any Fire Brigades because that reseller has a ton. You will still make money.

dragonhawk

LFT, BrickDancer, & doriansdad, thanks for the insights. I have read about 33% of the posts in this thread to discern if this is something that I can take on. Nothing beats learning from the pros (and semi pros ;) ) . I firmly believe any kind of investments need some kind of end goal otherwise you are too busy chasing the rainbows

doriansdad

Faedian7 said:

Looks like I missed the boat on Pet Shop for now...which probably was a good thing so that I can manage to get some more brownie points with the boss (wife). At least I managed to pickup a FB which was my main goal before it goes EOL. Do you guys think GE will go EOL this year or next seeing the trends with fire brigade and all?

FB is missing from the Fall 2012 Catalog while GE is still featured......I think that may be a clue as to which modular is going by the end of this year.

Pitfall69

doriansdad said:

Faedian7 said:

Looks like I missed the boat on Pet Shop for now...which probably was a good thing so that I can manage to get some more brownie points with the boss (wife). At least I managed to pickup a FB which was my main goal before it goes EOL. Do you guys think GE will go EOL this year or next seeing the trends with fire brigade and all?

FB is missing from the Fall 2012 Catalog while GE is still featured......I think that may be a clue as to which modular is going by the end of this year.

While this may be true, we don't know for sure how much stock is left at [email protected] and every other retail place that is carrying the Fire Brigade.

Pitfall69

dragonhawk said:

LFT, BrickDancer, & doriansdad, thanks for the insights. I have read about 33% of the posts in this thread to discern if this is something that I can take on. Nothing beats learning from the pros (and semi pros ;) ) . I firmly believe any kind of investments need some kind of end goal otherwise you are too busy chasing the rainbows

We all have an end goal, although those goals vary. Some of us can afford to wait a few years to sell a set and other are happy with a quick return on their investment.

LegoFanTexas

Well, we haven't discussed it in awhile...

Is this the year, the Christmas, when Death Star, MMV, and FB finally go out? DS and MMV have been around for 4 years now, FB for 3 years... All three have been out a year longer than everyone thought they would be.

What are the odds all will stick around for yet another year? I suppose it could happen, the older X-Wing, 6212, was around for 5+ years, other sets have been around for years...

The modular buildings really don't have a long enough track record to say 2 years is done, CC and GG were it, FB is now 3 years, and we also have 4 modular buildings out (not counting HH, which is modular-like).

MMV? It is a Castle set for pete's sake... It came out before the entire Kingdoms line, survived that, and is still kicking even with all but Joust EOL.

DS? What more needs to be said. It isn't a UCS set, but it is like one, it is huge, playable, and still sells very well by all accounts. It doesn't appear to have a ton of unique parts, so it may not cost that much to keep making, other than the minifigs which actually are now quite dated compared to the new ones. But that might be a minor point.

So, anyone want to guess, or place odds? I predicted all three were gone last year, I was wrong on all three.

Is this the year?

#10188
#10193
#10197

y2josh

I'm going to say Fire Brigade is the most likely to go... and I'd almost be willing to put that at 100%.

I think MMV is also likely to go, though at this point, it won't shock me at all if it stays.

As for the Death Star, I'm just not sure on that one. It's certainly past its prime, but there's also nothing else like it in the SW theme (or any theme, for that matter). It's not a set that's likely to be replicated any time soon (or, perhaps, ever), so I feel like they know once they EOL it, they'll be without a 'flagship' set... at least for a while. So I don't know. I'm almost leaning towards this one making it another year.

y2josh

Side note: When each of those retire, I expect the Death Star to have the quickest spike in price.

doriansdad

It will be interesting to see if Amazon and Walmart get more stock of Fire Brigade....that will be a big clue.

LegoFanTexas

doriansdad said:

It will be interesting to see if Amazon and Walmart get more stock of Fire Brigade....that will be a big clue.

It is the end of Sept, I'd be shocked if they don't restock at least one more time. :)

dragonhawk

y2josh said:

Side note: When each of those retire, I expect the Death Star to have the quickest spike in price.

I am curious to know the reason behind that expectation. I would think the original RRP and its current shelf time would work against quick spike.

y2josh

dragonhawk said:

y2josh said:

Side note: When each of those retire, I expect the Death Star to have the quickest spike in price.

I am curious to know the reason behind that expectation. I would think the original RRP and its current shelf time would work against quick spike.

I have a lot of reasons for thinking that. As stated above, it's a set that's not likely to be replicated anytime soon. Beyond this, it's a set with mass appeal. It works as a playset for kids, but it's also a great display piece for AFOLs. On top of all this, and this may just me being crazy, for as long as it's been available, there'll still be people who were waiting to pull the trigger which I suspect will lead to near immediate panic buying which will drive the price up quickly.

That said, I expect it to plateau much sooner and stay at a much lower price point than the UCS Falcon, but it should be a good investment all the same.

Billybrown

I think the DS will be available until next year, which is why I dont have many. MMV, FB, IS, BP will go for good IMO.

brickupdate

With so many modulars out, I would guess that Fire Brigade is on it's way out. LEGO has only so much shelf space.

Medieval Market Village - the set that won't die. I'll go ahead and predict that one going out to, but would not be shocked if it didn't.

For Death Star... I can easily see them keeping it. The only other big sets for Star Wars are SSD and the B-Wing, right? Is that even out yet?

I have 4 Death Stars, I think 5 Fire Brigades, and maybe 5 MMVs. I'm losing count!

Billybrown

Ive 22 FB's so hope they go EOL! I only have the 2 MMV's so need to stock up on those as they are great value. Not even thought about purchasing SSD its so pricey and Id want at least 33% off before purchasing. Could well be a very slow seller for Lego but I can see that running until at least next year.

itsnotme

DS was still in the fall catalog - a possible indicator that it will be sticking around, though the predictive power there is debatable.

Pitfall69

Like I said, educated guesses.

Do you think the current prices for the sold out Fire Brigade, Pet Shop and Town Hall any indication of what we might see immediately after these EOL?

LegoFanTexas

Those prices are largely based on those resellers being able to restock at RRP or better. Once it really EOLs, most of them should raise by $50 or so if they are smart...

$250 strikes me as a reasonable selling point for a EOL modular.

Pitfall69

Ok. That seems more like a year after EOL price range, but what the heck do I know? An example would be the Black Pearl. It's only went up about 25% since it has been sold out most everywhere. I'm talking immediately after it is sold out.

y2josh

^Physical stores by me still have a lot of Black Pearls, even after some tried to clearance them out at 30% off. Inexplicably, they're back up to $100 now and still sitting on the shelves. Or... in the case of Toys R Us... back up to $120.

Pitfall69

^Yeah, probably not a great example because the Modulars aren't sold in most stores.

y2josh

I'd also add that what people are ASKING for the Pearl is not very representative of what they're currently selling for. A quick look at eBay's completed listings shows them going just over RRP (and a handful under)... shipped.

madforLEGO

I think FB will increase rather quickly because it is a Fire station, can also be built into other buildings (with that garage door it is the only mod, right now, with one) and the colors are great.. I still see this one doing well despite the flood that resellers no doubt have. Id say it will still be about on Par with the rise of GG.

As for GE, that is interesting. All I'll say is if you want one buy one now just in case. I'm not sure if it will last past this Christmas or if it will adhere to the whole new 3 year plan that we saw with the FB.

and just because it is in the catalog does not mean a thing.. I have seen sets in the catalog that are gone within a month of that catalog coming out.

Bandit

Also once FB does go EOL, reseller supply will spike, driving down initial prices...

sidersdd

^ Actually I predict what happens first is resellers continue to buy from those resellers selling at or near MSRP. There's a buying frenzy which shoots the price up. Then it plateaus. That plateau will still be a healthy return on your investment.