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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    I'm thinking that both FB and GE may be going out...

    I think FB was meant to be gone already, but since the problem with batch 39R1, they ran another batch which is 44R1. Since they had to run a batch to replace the defective 39R1, it is still around, when originally it should have been sold out by now. Perhaps GE was meant to retire middle of next year, but they ended it early to allow production room for FB.

    FB was due anyway, with Town Hall coming out in March, GE needs to go to keep only 2 modulars on the shelf.

    So we may end up with a double retirement in January, FB and GE.

    That is what I'm thinking...

    DS may stay a year, it may not, hard to tell right now. If Amazon restocks, we'll know it is staying, if they are still empty in a month, that is a good sign it is going.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,062
    edited December 2011
    ^--- no kidding.. It is possible I guess, but man that would be a stunner if it were to happen for the GE....

    Ahhh UPDATE; [email protected] now has the GE listed as Out of Stock, expected to ship on Jan 3rd
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,062
    I wonder if the 'Out of stock, expected to ship in 30 days' means it could be gone shortly there after.. whereas the out of stock expected to ship on 'x' date means they are busy making more sets... never really paid close attention to those types of comments.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,922
    Noticed that one of the Cars sets is 50% off on Amazon. Just an awful series. Even at 75% off, I'm not sure it's worth it - except for parts.
  • dremel99dremel99 Member Posts: 123
    I see the latest round of listings on Ebay for Emerald Night are listing at 149.00 on up to 179.00, we'll see if they sell for that.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,062
    ^--- Yeah, I bought one cars set, for the 'spy plane' because I think it is near minifig scale....
  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 4,866
    Perhaps they just want to encourage people to buy the less popular FB by replenishing the GE at a slower pace?
  • llanowarsoldierllanowarsoldier Ohio USAMember Posts: 357
    edited December 2011
    Well I was in my Lego Store today in Columbus, OH and I talked to the manager and she said that Obi-Wan's Starfighter is definitely EOL. They still had a few EN left, plenty of the AT-OT's, IF is now gone everywhere. She was unsure of FB though and DS and MMV are not being retired yet since they are really great sellers.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    EM on Amazon is now $150. I had guessed it would hit $150 by the end of the year, boy was I off!!! Sheesh!

    Time to go order a few more from Target while they are on sale for $89.
  • coolpixcoolpix Member Posts: 357
    edited December 2011
    Just arrived from my local store, the report as follows: IF was restocked, so they still have a few, Tantive IV restocked, GE, FB, MMV and DS they have plenty on the stock room, according to an employee. I noticed there wasn't many Battle of Endor left. Maybe this one is going EOL as well. Emerald Night is done at the store and they are not getting anymore. Finally, the Winter sets, I've counted 46 Winter Toy Shop alone on the floor in several spots, so this one is my sure bet for a substantial hoarding on the 26th for 50% off, as there are not many people buying it now. Again, this store is on a "tourist/outlet" mall, mostly visited by Latin Americans.
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    Loving the reports from the LEGO Stores, thanks @llanowarsoldier and @coolpix !
    I think that the AT-OT's will be plentiful, even at a steep discount. The LEGO Store near me said they had tons of them late in the day on Black Friday, and I can't see too many of these having sold when compared to a set such as Death Star. It's a cool set, and would be MUCH cooler at $130. I grabbed one on Black Friday.

    I just bought 2 more Emerald Nights.

  • dremel99dremel99 Member Posts: 123
    Target is showing only 47 EM left.
  • avoiceoreasonavoiceoreason Member Posts: 224
    The Emerald Night hoarding seems to be getting pretty aggressive at this point. If this thing gets anywhere near 100% premium, I would expect a flood of them to hit the eBay market. Supply and demand suggests that should drive the price down. I think this set (and maybe all of the sets being hoarded at this point) is going to either find an equilibrium point pretty quick or take a lot longer to get to the desired prices than many think.

    This one will be interesting to watch in twelve months.
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    @dremel99 How did you get the stock number for Target?

    @avoiceoreason I would say that myself and @LegoFanTexas seem to be the two big "hoarders" of this set on this forum thread. I think I now have 10, and he has about 10, maybe he jumped up to 15 or 20. I think if we were talking about the Kingdoms Castle or Obi-Wan's Starfighter, it would be hard to see a significant price increase. But this set just seems special to me.

    Bonus news: Market Street arrived in the mail today! That completes my modular collection (except Pet Shop which I will grab next year)
  • dremel99dremel99 Member Posts: 123
    Just typed in 99 in the add to cart and it says only 47 available.
  • tk79tk79 Member Posts: 329
    ^- sounds right, I think today is the first time it's dropped into double digits. Every time I tried that trick before it wouldn't give me the count.

    It did show 55 for me when I just tried it, so not sure if it's entirely accurate jumping from 47 UP to 55.

    Scary to think what will happen to the price when the last major retailer is out.

    This set is so unique, obviously people will pay for that (looking at Amazon now...wow).
  • dremel99dremel99 Member Posts: 123
    I agree that EM is a special set. I have 5 but would like to have more, I don't know how many I would have to have before I said enough. Probably a good thing that finances make that choice for me, but on the other hand my credit cards are like 5% interest.

    That means an EM set only costs me about 5.00 per year in interest fees. I think that is an excellent ROI as EM will gain 50-200% in the next 12 months. Something to think about.
  • tk79tk79 Member Posts: 329
    LFT is being strangely quiet...and the stock count is going down about 1 per minute....hmmm :)
  • dremel99dremel99 Member Posts: 123
    OK, after looking at what I just wrote and seeing it in print, I decided I did need 3 more, ordered 3 more from Target. :)
  • dremel99dremel99 Member Posts: 123
    I don't know, after ordering 3 more it dropped Target quantity from 47 down to 43. Must be accurate.
  • andystarandystar Member Posts: 275
    I now have more of EM then any other set... please all retailers sell out now!
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    I just bought 10 more from Target, 1 at a time using the $7 promo code, 5% off Red Card, total with tax and delivery, just over $85 each.

    If the 5 I bought from Amazon arrive in good condition, I'll have about 30 of them, give or take a few. Honestly, I've lost count at this point. How sad is that? :)

    I would take them all at this point from Target, this is as sure a thing as it gets, but they wouldn't accept any more RedCard Debit Card transactions from me, and my RedCard Credit Card is full. :)

    I could pay $90 each delivered without the RedCard, or call and complain and waste an hour fighting them, or I can be happy with what I have and move on with life. :)

    Oh well...

    Hmm...
  • tk79tk79 Member Posts: 329
    lol...I knew it. Well done...I have to say, it's interesting to see the retail EOL happening minute by minute on such a set. 41 sets to go @ a bargain of $80 or so while people over on Amazon are spending $150.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,062
    Just typed in 99 in the add to cart and it says only 47 available.
    I tried doing it at Target and it limited my cart to 10.
  • andystarandystar Member Posts: 275
    Down to 31
  • tk79tk79 Member Posts: 329
    Make sure you aren't logged in to target...on the emerald night main page type in 99 and hit enter...you should get the available amount that way
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,062
    ^--- Interesting... thanks for the tip..
  • tk79tk79 Member Posts: 329
    edited December 2011
    np, thanks to dremel for pointing out that it could be done. 13 to go....LFT, slow down, that looks like smoke coming from your keyboard. jk :)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    :)

    I decided to buy the rest, what can I say?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    As a side note, I'm surprised Target's web site doesn't care about order after order, stupid discount code, just give me $7 off each set and I'd order 10 of them at once and be done with it. :)
  • tk79tk79 Member Posts: 329
    :) I just want to see it go out of stock before I go to bed...too much temptation to order more
  • dremel99dremel99 Member Posts: 123
    No not all of them, now there are 99 more!!!
  • andystarandystar Member Posts: 275
    Down to 5
  • tk79tk79 Member Posts: 329
    I see 4....?
  • andystarandystar Member Posts: 275
    3
  • dremel99dremel99 Member Posts: 123
    why when I type in 99 now does it show 96??
  • andystarandystar Member Posts: 275
    Shows 0 for me now
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Bought them all, sorry... :)
  • andystarandystar Member Posts: 275
    I think he got em all, yep
  • tk79tk79 Member Posts: 329
    She gone!

    "out of stock online
    LEGO Creator: Emerald Night 10194"
  • andystarandystar Member Posts: 275
    Everywhere
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    I got another in the nick of time. :)
  • andystarandystar Member Posts: 275
    just one?
  • dremel99dremel99 Member Posts: 123
    let me try again, it keeps showing 96 available now, let me clear cookies first.
  • andystarandystar Member Posts: 275
    So LegoFanTexas, what is your total now?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Just bought 13 more of them total, so someone got one in there.

    Of course, there is no assurance that I'll get them, I ordered Bank and Money Transfer as well and Target canceled my last two orders of that for running out of stock.
  • tk79tk79 Member Posts: 329
    It will be funny (and sad for some of us including me) if Target was behind by 100 sets on their stock counter.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    @andystar - that puts me over 40 ordered, I think. That is ordered, who knows if I'll get them all.

    I suspect I'll really end up with 30, who knows. Maybe in a week or two I'll line them all up and take a picture. ;)
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    I just ordered five from Target online... there seems to be an inconsistency with their website if it's telling some of you there are none left. Either that or I'm not going to receive these.
  • tk79tk79 Member Posts: 329
    ^-- yeah, it keeps switching back and forth....I'm thinking it's out, but good luck, hope it goes through for you
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