Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

Diggydoes

Yeah after reading how high the demand for these is in the US (over here there's only little demand)i bought as many sets from my TLG-store as i could! Sold them all in almost 2days :)
Unfortunately the sets are also sold-out now and will be back around nov.(that's what s@h says)!

vailbaby28

I was just in the Orland Park, IL (US) LEGO store last week. Not many HARRY POTTER in stock. Store manager said that they have been advised that they will not be receiving any more HP stock. Production has been DISCONTINUED!

Please help! Is this true? Can anyone confirm?

Thnx.
xoxo LEGO fans

LegoFanTexas

^ Yes, we have known this for several months. Most of the sets retired last Christmas, a few retired a few months ago, the rest are just slowly disappearing as stock runs out.

Pitfall69

"Obi wan, you're my only hope"

gmpirate

^ "If you're right, he must not be allowed to escape."

Supersympa

@vailbaby28 yes, been out for a few months now.

For people that are not into lego, but their kids are, they have difficulties to understand the EOL process. I was at a dinner on saturday with friends, my friend tells me he will buy Harry Potter lego for Christmas because his 2 boys love it...I said...mate, this is discontinued, you won't be able to get it unless you are lucky or you will have to pay over RRP price...and he was surprised that sets like that get discontinued....

berniebond

I found 3x4841 HE and 1x4842 HC @20% off on Friday. I am tempted to go on a tour to all small toy shops around...there are some "sleepers" out there...

berniebond

What do you all think about the CMF aftermarket. Series 2-8 are obviously not going up to S1 prices but how high do we think they ll go? There are going to be newcomers starting with a new series and they ma wanna complete their collection...

CCC

^ I doubt they will rise hugely, except for the sought after ones. I reckon any newcomers will accept that they are not going to get complete sets (with S1 being so high in price), so will not bother too much with earlier ones. Many S2-8 you can get for £2 or under, some go higher, but they have always been higher - elf, roman, spartan, etc.

Pitfall69

As far as a complete set of 16 minifigures, other than Series 1, I don't see any other series being a good investment. Series 2...maybe and that's being generous. The Spartan is what brings Series 2 into the discussion. Lego did not produce as many Series 1 Minifigures as the other Series and their distribution was awful.

Pitfall69

I think that as a set of 16, they will will probably maintain their value, but as far as CMF's being a good investment, not so much.

Supersympa

#10217 sold out on S@H in Europe....not yet in the US...

prevere

The value here, IMHO, is in having the whole run, whenever they decide to finish.

berniebond

...but as the buying price is 1€ each i lean towards buying a few boxes. Wouldnt you?

prevere

I find it frustrating, yet interesting the MF Zombie Coffin Car is no longer listed on TRU's website. This was $5 a week ago I swear. Nowhere to be found on S@H either.

Pitfall69

I know that some people on here can't give away full boxes of CMF's. If you can get a box for 60£ or $95 go for it. I don't know where you will find them so cheap.

roxio

^Tesco in UK have been selling off their boxes of Team GB and series 7 for £30 each :)

Pitfall69

Wow!!! That's a steal. I'm wondering how CMF collectors feel about Team GB? Do they consider them to be part of the collection? If so, since they were a limited release in the UK, do they have more value to people in other countries? I would say yes.

roxio

So would I, so would the £175 they easily get when you ship outside UK ;)

richo

Can somebody tell me why 4840 The Burrow has gone so mad on ebay. Its a £100+ set all day long now. Its hardly been deleted, and was available fairly discounted. Think this might give a few pointers to Diagon Alley...

roxio

^yes, seemed like another no-brainer when amazon shifted them earlier this year at £50.
I went in heavy, but not as heavy as I should of :(
But the £77 DA from amazon.de are looking a steal :)

madforLEGO

It appears the Chess set is back (albeit on backorder) on US Shop@home

prevere

Burrow is a unique set, limited mass interest, but high niche interest from Potter collectors (and with some great figs) - that's the reason it's so popular.

DA will be a gangbuster for sure. Absolute lead-pipe lock for aftermarket greatness.

richo

^ I do already have a DA, and am not really a reseller, but I agree at £77 DA was worth going in again, no matter what you plan to do with it. Great price.

The Burrow still surprises me though, I don't think its that great a set actually.

LegoFanTexas

Keep in mind that anything that is a "sure thing", isn't...

I have a few DA, but not a ton (fewer than 10). I might end up with 10-12 of them total, but for everyone who says it is a sure thing... once all HP is gone, demand might soften with it.

The Burrow has demand, because of the other Potter that is still out. Once it is all gone, demand might go with it.

FatMatt

^Agreed, nor was everyone hyping up the Burrow like DA has been hyped up.

doriansdad

richo said:

The Burrow still surprises me though, I don't think its that great a set actually.

HP will never be done again.......$$$$

richo

^ ok I understand, its just that The Burrow is the sort of set I would like to think I could MOC at least as good as the set, if not better to be honest.

cloaked7

^^ and ^

It is definitely an inaccurate science. That is picking the 'winners'. A recent case in point is Minecraft. It didn't catch my attention (or that of many of us, I think) except for it being Cuusoo. I saw it available and figured, I'll pick one up later. Next thing I know S@H is out of them and everyone is going Ga Ga for the set! he he

LegoFanTexas

Millions of dollars and thousands of very smart people are involved in picking "winners", and even then they have a batting average of less than .500. :)

Look at "New Coke" for a perfect example...

Then other times, they hit it out of the park...

Diggydoes

^and my TLG-store just has two more coming in (reserved for me of course)! Yeeey

richo

^^ I wish Vanilla Coke would come to the UK. Really missing a trick there.

prevere

New Coke....or Crystal Pepsi.

I just think DA will do well. Like everyone else - it's just an opinion.

BrickDancer

^I wish I had a bottle of Crystal Clear Pepsi right now, just to taste the novelty of it 20 years later =(

And yes I agree on DA doing well after EOL. Question is, will it still be here on BF?

FatMatt

^I recall discussion a while back in this thread about DA lasting well into next year.

I remember walking down to the corner mart with my brother when I was younger just to get a can of the Crystal Clear Pepsi. Strangely, I don't remember it tasting any different than regular Pepsi:)

prevere

It's apparently gone up in price since 1990. A bottle of regular and diet sold for $65 on eBay two weeks ago. And they are sealed, what a deal!

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Regular-Diet-Crystal-Pepsi-16-oz-glass-bottles-/190723439647?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item2c6800bc1f

FatMatt

I wonder if anyone buys them to crack open and drink?:)

CCC

I wouldn't touch a sealed bottle. It would have to be graded for me. :-)

Pitfall69

That, my friend, was funny.

BrickDancer

^^Lol yes indeed, topic of the month. Sealed & graded 'anything & everything'.

111ins

I am sure that it is on here somewhere but what are the thoughts on the architecture series? They are still all available at LEGO.com and some have been out since 2008, just like the Death Star. Will they ever go away?

Pitfall69

I have never bought one. The Robbie House was a good parts set I heard. I think they are only for die-hard Lego collectors. The idea for a set to do well in the aftermaket is for it to have mass appeal, but what do I know?

LegoFanTexas

Time will tell... One actually did retire, #21001 John Hancock Center - it is retired and doing fairly well.

BrickDancer

^^The Whitehouse may do well. It's a good representation at that scale and affordable RRP. But historically, mini-scale sets haven't done well after EOL. Such as Amusement Park and Airport (Skyline did well though).

momof2boys99

I think Falling Water will do well.....just my opinion of coarse.

Pitfall69

^That's quite a "rough" opinion :)

FollowsClosely

A 40 grit opinion.

prevere

Funny, the architecture stuff never seems to be on clearance. They aren't available at the typical Wallys and TRUs. Nothing from S@H in terms of clearance or price breaks. I've been waiting for some kind of break in price to buy some.

The rest of the 1st wave could easily just start to slip away and vanish. As LFT said, the Hancock is gone. More are sure to follow.

mressin

vailbaby28 said:

I was just in the Orland Park, IL (US) LEGO store last week. Not many HARRY POTTER in stock. Store manager said that they have been advised that they will not be receiving any more HP stock. Production has been DISCONTINUED!

Please help! Is this true? Can anyone confirm?

Thnx.
xoxo LEGO fans

At a recent Lego store visit, I was told that they had been instructed to take all remaining HP sets (along with any remaing AQ) off the shelves. They were not even allowed to try and sell them anymore.

momof2boys99

momof2boys99 said:

I think Falling Water will do well.....just my opinion of coarse.

oops....course.......very funny pitfall