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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • CupIsHalfEmptyCupIsHalfEmpty Member Posts: 545
    I started searching for all my recipes from the last year and kind of chuckled to myself when I found my recipe for FB from March 14th for full price! It went OOS on lego.com and since I didn't own one yet I panicked and ordered it from Walmart to make sure I didn't have to buy one from one of you guys here.

    Looks like I could have taken my time with that purchase...

    Billy
  • tk79tk79 Member Posts: 329
    ^Mmmmm, sounds delicious...

    1/2 cup red bricks
    a pinch of gold helmets
    etc

    kidding, I know what you meant :) I did the same thing with the DS last year, doh.
  • FatMattFatMatt Member Posts: 502
    ^^
    Fudge Brownies? :P
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    edited September 2012
    ^^^^ The Nazi's in IJ are almost cartoonish examples of what a Nazi is, plus they are not clearly marked as such, if you didn't know what they were, you wouldn't know what they are.

    Zombies in Monster Fighters are cartoonish zombies, like Scooby Doo. Resident Evil is not cartoonish, at least not in that way. :)
  • CupIsHalfEmptyCupIsHalfEmpty Member Posts: 545
    ^^ Should I cook my FB with my wood burning stove? I clearly deserve that one and unfortunately am outside my window to edit so my secret recipe for FB will be on the internet forever.
  • FatMattFatMatt Member Posts: 502
    edited September 2012
    MMMM..... ABS Brownies
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ Wise person.
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 3,169
    LegoFanTexas said:

    ^^^^ The Nazi's in IJ are almost cartoonish examples of what a Nazi is

    Like Prince Harry in Fancy Dress!

    I can't see the problem with Resident Evil Lego if it is only aimed at adults (like most UCS sets are, but with only an adult buyer audience, would Lego make enough to make it viable? I think you'd have to sell it through [email protected] and internet sale only to limit kiddies exposure to it on the shelves.

    I haven't touched my XBox360 in 2 years, but I will be buying Resi 6 in a few weeks - that is the pulling power of Resident Evil. I played every episode to death after I had all teh extra weapons etc.No other game has pulled me in like Resi and kept me there well after completing it for the first time, only SW Battlefronts has come close.
  • DaddyDeuceDaddyDeuce Member Posts: 272
    LegoFanTexas said:


    the Lloyd spinners are not in production, they were a one and done and are now unavailable to order

    If they were truly a "one and done" these would be good to hold for selling around Christmas. If the supply disruption was temporary then it would be good to sell them off now. Any opinions?


  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    edited September 2012
    What's funny is that any character evil or not that is transformed into Lego becomes "cartoonish" The Rancor is coming out and it looks great. While "scary" in Jedi, with drool coming from its mouth and having a Gamorean Guard snack. It's not even close to scary in Lego form.

    As far as Resident Evil, the Lego sets would be based on the Video game not the movie. That is basically what we are talking about. The video game is "cartoonish" so...I don't see the problem.
  • The_MackThe_Mack Member Posts: 239
    edited September 2012
    monkeyhanger said:


    I can't see the problem with Resident Evil Lego if it is only aimed at adults (like most UCS sets are, but with only an adult buyer audience, would Lego make enough to make it viable? I think you'd have to sell it through [email protected] and internet sale only to limit kiddies exposure to it on the shelves.

    A LEGO Resident Evil theme goes against the LEGO brand and marketing. They would be shooting themselves in the foot to do such a theme. First off Resident Evil isn't that popular, second it's a mature rated game, and mature rated movie franchise. LEGO is primarily a children's toy. Do you think parents would like LEGO introducing their children to that kind of material? LEGO is not going to ever do a mature title like that. Even if it is only marketed to adults. Children are the top priority, they do UCS sets because they know they appeal to older children and adults also. But any mature license that is aimed at only adults will never see the light. It goes against their brand and what LEGO is.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    DaddyDeuce said:

    If they were truly a "one and done" these would be good to hold for selling around Christmas. If the supply disruption was temporary then it would be good to sell them off now. Any opinions?

    I'm not 100% sure my source was correct on that, which is why I've been selling them now. Prices have softened, so more supply has shown up somewhere. I've picked up a few hundred more of them, which tells me they aren't THAT hard to find.

    We shall see... but I was getting nearly $30 each a few weeks ago, got $25 each last weekend, now the price is approaching $20 each. Lots of sellers on the market with these, might just be short term oversupply, or it might really just be a ton of them in resellers hands.

    Ask me again in 3 months and my Magic 8 Ball will have a better reading. :)
  • cbaker1974cbaker1974 Member Posts: 150
    I went to 6 TRU this weekend and at 4 of them saw the Lloyd spinners in stock (10+), so I think stock is catching up...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Yea, that does seem to be the case... Sales are about half of what they were last week and there are many more sellers with stock now.

    However, keep in mind that we are in September, most of America isn't yet buying Christmas, the initial buying was the pent up demand for Lloyd, we probably won't see another jump until mid November, then it should kick back up again. So if you haven't sold now, perhaps wait...

    But you do run a risk... if Ninjago is really going out after the first of the year, once it is gone from the shelves, demand may evaporate completely. I don't plan to hold any stock for next Christmas. Prices might be double what they are today, or half. I don't know, but I'm not a gambler. :)
  • Penkid11Penkid11 Member Posts: 788
    Question LFT: where do you sell on?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Penkid11 said:

    Question LFT: where do you sell on?

    Any place that will pay me lots of money. :)

    We all talk about places we buy stuff and deals, but rarely where we sell. Some of it goes overseas, some stays here. I have a few dealers and B&M shops I sell to, and some of it is online.

    Generally very little is sold to anyone here, because I get higher rates than Bricklink, and all of you know what those prices are. :)
  • cbaker1974cbaker1974 Member Posts: 150
    LegoFanTexas said:


    However, keep in mind that we are in September, most of America isn't yet buying Christmas, the initial buying was the pent up demand for Lloyd, we probably won't see another jump until mid November, then it should kick back up again. So if you haven't sold now, perhaps wait...

    But you do run a risk... if Ninjago is really going out after the first of the year, once it is gone from the shelves, demand may evaporate completely. I don't plan to hold any stock for next Christmas. Prices might be double what they are today, or half. I don't know, but I'm not a gambler. :)

    On this theme in general I would agree...I don't think you will see the sets completely off the shelves until late into 2013, but peak demand should be this Christmas...Ninjago is probably one of the more unique things from a resell perspective in that it is likely much better short term than long due to the target market.

    I could be completely wrong of course :)
  • DaddyDeuceDaddyDeuce Member Posts: 272
    Regarding Lloyd; I don't follow Ninjago closely but I was aware there was tremendous pent-up demand for the "Green Ninja". Maybe when Lloyd came out the "giant sucking sound" we heard was that demand suddenly getting filled?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    ^ Yes, it is possible the pent up demand is gone, it has already slackened quite a bit, but then it is September so no telling.

    It also depends on if another pack with Lloyd comes out. Right now, the only way to get him is the spinner, or the big $120 green dragon.

    BTW, to anyone who hasn't bought that set yet, it is very "swooshable", much more so than the red box dragons, most of which just fell apart. The wings of the green dragon flap when you swoosh it, and I'll admit to having done that... once or twice... ;)
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Well, while you guys are stocking up on the Lloyd spinners, I've been stockpiling the Lloyd Minifigure Clock!!! Lego only lets me buy five at a time but I've got over a hundred so far :P
  • RennyRenny Member Posts: 1,145
    I hope the alarm isn't set on all of those clocks ;)
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    The Black Pearl is Call for Availability on [email protected] again. It's still available at Target and Wal-Mart, though. And TRU... though it's TRU price there, obviously.
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    LegoFanTexas said:

    ^^^^ The Nazi's in IJ are almost cartoonish examples of what a Nazi is, plus they are not clearly marked as such, if you didn't know what they were, you wouldn't know what they are.

    Zombies in Monster Fighters are cartoonish zombies, like Scooby Doo. Resident Evil is not cartoonish, at least not in that way. :)

    Pitfall69 said:

    What's funny is that any character evil or not that is transformed into Lego becomes "cartoonish" The Rancor is coming out and it looks great. While "scary" in Jedi, with drool coming from its mouth and having a Gamorean Guard snack. It's not even close to scary in Lego form.

    And look at the orcs in LOTR. Quite scary in the films, but really quite cute in Lego form. I know they are meant to be scary, but those ears make them look comical.
  • momof2boys99momof2boys99 Member Posts: 322
    I have 8 Lloyds. I have not sold any yet. I can say that from selling on and off Ebay, "Ninjago" and "Friends" are hot right now. The amount of watchers on those lines is huge on Ebay. However, when to sell is always the question. I am also one that believes that "Ninjago" is only a temporary hot item. I don't see it demanding high $$$ 3 years from now.
    On the other hand, I think Friends will stick around. It is a huge success for Lego. It could go on for years. The "Wall Street Journal" article that I read stated that "Friends" was their big seller. I always have customers asking for them. These are just my experiences.
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    edited September 2012
    Ninjago forecasting....ninjas have and always will be popular.

    3-4 years down the road - if Lego has shut down their ninja series, these sets will do well.

    99% of these sets are being sold to 8-year-old boys who play with them and throw the parts in a bin after awhile.
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    Friends as a line will do well. Will specific sets though? Girls like changing clothes on dolls - so will keen to have lots of parts for the minidolls. It could be a city type line - always does well, but past sets never increase that much, if it all. It is all down to how much variation Lego puts into the line.
  • momof2boys99momof2boys99 Member Posts: 322
    @prevere....I do agree that Ninja's are always popular. However, I feel that Ninjago is such a hot item for the moment. It reminds me of Yu-Gi-Oh, Pokemon, ect. I don't think the sets would ever drop below retail price down the road, but I do think the demand will fall and the the profit margin will not be so high.
    As an example, I had 210 Star Wars figs on Ebay for a 3 day auction that had 12 watchers. I had an Earth Dragon Defense with 87. The demand is so high right now for the Ninjago sets. It is a craze. How long it will last at this level is the magic question. That's why I love this board.
  • momof2boys99momof2boys99 Member Posts: 322
    @CCC....I too picture "Friends" as a "City" type line with never ending themes. I do think that the first sets will do well if it is a long lasting line. There are always customers that come in late and want the full series.
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    ^ The problem is what happens when (if) they release the next hot tub, pethouse, cafe. Will they repeat ideas, or come up with new ones.
  • DaddyDeuceDaddyDeuce Member Posts: 272
    momof2boys99 said:

    I am also one that believes that "Ninjago" is only a temporary hot item. I don't see it demanding high $$$ 3 years from now.

    I mostly agree, but I think the "Lego Ninjago: Masters of Spinjitzu" TV show is a wild card. If the show gets played as reruns on a popular childrens' TV network then I think demand for the toys could be more lasting.



  • RennyRenny Member Posts: 1,145
    What are everyone's thoughts on the long term value of the limited edition Darth Maul and Slave 1 tins? Since they were limited to 1000 each do you think these will go up in value over the next year or two or just plateau at around $100?
  • momof2boys99momof2boys99 Member Posts: 322
    DaddyDeuce said:

    momof2boys99 said:

    I am also one that believes that "Ninjago" is only a temporary hot item. I don't see it demanding high $$$ 3 years from now.

    I mostly agree, but I think the "Lego Ninjago: Masters of Spinjitzu" TV show is a wild card. If the show gets played as reruns on a popular childrens' TV network then I think demand for the toys could be more lasting.



    It could be, but I play it a little safer. I don't want to take that much of a gamble. I am happy with the profits now and within the next year. I do buy a ton of Lego....but I am cautious about what I buy. I do miss out on some, but that is the way it goes.
  • momof2boys99momof2boys99 Member Posts: 322
    CCC said:

    ^ The problem is what happens when (if) they release the next hot tub, pethouse, cafe. Will they repeat ideas, or come up with new ones.

    Now why would Lego do that??? They can't!!! I have too much invested in these gals!!
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    ^ I'd imagine a rapid initial rise, followed by much slower. Where the plateau is I don't know.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Renny said:

    What are everyone's thoughts on the long term value of the limited edition Darth Maul and Slave 1 tins? Since they were limited to 1000 each do you think these will go up in value over the next year or two or just plateau at around $100?

    10,000 chrome C-3PO minifigs were made , look at the price of those...
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Member Posts: 3,639
    ^Another good comparison would be the mini LAAT/C dropship that was a promo giveaway too.
  • UKtsumiUKtsumi Member Posts: 630
    ^ LAAT/C ?
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Member Posts: 3,639
    "Low Altitude Assault Transport/Carrier"

    Another name for the Republic Dropship. It was a 2009 promo giveaway of 500 sets:

    http://ultimate-collector.blogspot.com/2009/08/lego-star-wars-sdcc-2009-exclusive-mini.html
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    I thought grand emporium had gone EOL for a second there!, isnt appearing anywhere on the website unless you search for it, although looks like the website has had a slight update so i imagine thats the cause.
  • CrazyaddictCrazyaddict Member Posts: 35
    LegoFanTexas said:

    Renny said:

    What are everyone's thoughts on the long term value of the limited edition Darth Maul and Slave 1 tins? Since they were limited to 1000 each do you think these will go up in value over the next year or two or just plateau at around $100?

    10,000 chrome C-3PO minifigs were made , look at the price of those...
    BrickDancer said:

    ^Another good comparison would be the mini LAAT/C dropship that was a promo giveaway too.

    One's a block set the other is a minifigure. Goes to show block sets can't keep the price unless you get some rare pieces.
  • momof2boys99momof2boys99 Member Posts: 322
    momof2boys99 said:

    @prevere....I do agree that Ninja's are always popular. However, I feel that Ninjago is such a hot item for the moment. It reminds me of Yu-Gi-Oh, Pokemon, ect. I don't think the sets would ever drop below retail price down the road, but I do think the demand will fall and the the profit margin will not be so high.
    As an example, I had 210 Star Wars figs on Ebay for a 3 day auction that had 12 watchers. I had an Earth Dragon Defense with 87. The demand is so high right now for the Ninjago sets. It is a craze. How long it will last at this level is the magic question. That's why I love this board.

    I need to correct myself. I meant to say 12 people were looking at the Star Wars Auction compared to 87 people looking at the Ninjago auction. I also need to say that I am overstocked in Star Wars sets and they do well, but have taken a slight dip.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Star Wars will stand the test of time. Ninjago will be yesterday's news soon enough. Right now Ninjago is hot, but so was the Pet Rock at one time.
  • momof2boys99momof2boys99 Member Posts: 322
    Pitfall69 said:

    Star Wars will stand the test of time. Ninjago will be yesterday's news soon enough. Right now Ninjago is hot, but so was the Pet Rock at one time.

    Thank you....it makes me feel better about my hoarding of Star Wars over the years.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    You will do fine. The redos of most of the first run of Star Wars sets are leaps and bounds better than their previous renditions. The quality between the last MF, X-Wing and Sith Infiltrator and the new ones is negligible. People will still want the first ever sets, but I think the newer ones are more sought after. There will be exceptions to the rule.

    You will be fine.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    edited September 2012
    Pitfall69 said:

    Star Wars will stand the test of time. Ninjago will be yesterday's news soon enough. Right now Ninjago is hot, but so was the Pet Rock at one time.

    I agree about Ninjago, and I only have a handful of Ninjago sets, but I'm still trying to decide if they have one last Christmas (as in 2013) in them. I suppose it depends on how far into 2013 the line carries.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    It's obvious Ninjas are popular. Lego decided to go with a Ninja with Series 1 CMF's, but Ninjago is different because it is more if a kids toy and we know how kids attention spans are.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    Pitfall69 said:

    The quality between the last MF, X-Wing and Sith Infiltrator and the new ones is negligible.

    I have to say I disagree on the Falcon. 7965, to me, is a huge improvement over 4504, especially in terms of stability. I also feel like 9493 is a huge step up over 6212 for the same reason.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    I guess I was just going on looks.
  • DiggydoesDiggydoes Member Posts: 1,079
    This is a really inspiring topic from a inspiring web-page!

    I came out my dark ages a year ago or so,reading trough the different opinions over brought me to stack on a few SW-sets and to resell about 20x Minecraft-sets on ebay.com (i'm from Germany) and make a little profit with it!
    I'm one of those "hobby-funding-sellers" and i really enjoy reading through the several opinions and participate from time to time!

    So to conclude,i would like to thank everybody over here for anticipating on this page! It's very helpful and interesting!
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ 20 Minecraft sets! Awesome. I was fortunate enough to snag 7. Just sold one today. Been selling them over the last few week. The supply is drying up which in turn is forcing the price up.
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