Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

LegoFanTexas

richo said:

I think its quite considerably over priced at rrp. I could be a die hard star wars fan, but no way would I pay an after market price over £130.

So are most SW sets these days, you have to look past that, or give them up...

At 10 cents a part, it is reasonable, it will get to 25 cents a part sooner or later, but I don't expect it until 2 years post retirement.

It is a great kids model, but a terrible adult model, one of the most disappointing sets I've ever built.

monkeyhanger

7965 is hardly ever sold at RRP in the UK, Argos discounted it to £106 last year and had 3 for 2 on top of that, making them £70.66 each, and you didn't have the ToysRus Gestapo dictating how many of an item you could buy. As this has only been out a year, isn't it too early to be talking imminent EOL? It will probably do well whilst there's an absence of system MF in the Lego line-up when this does finally go from the shelves, it's a decent set for the piece count and has some good (albeit common) minifigs.

monkeyhanger

@richio: IMO plenty will pay above RRP for this in the aftermarket until the next reiteration of the MF hits the shelves. The number of times i've said i'll never pay RRP for sets i've missed out on - I would love to be paying RRP now!

nkx1

Just got back from the Downtown Disney store to pick up a 853373 Kingdom's Chess set. I was a bit surprised they still had a bunch left, and that people hadn't snatched them up for resale. Perhaps the lack of demand led Lego to discontinue this set quickly.

LegoFanTexas

^ I think the base of the Kingdoms Chess Set is the problem...

Up the price to $99 and give it a proper brick built base and I think you'd sell more of them.

Of course, up the price to $99, make it Star Wars with a brick built base, and you'd have something... ;)

Penkid11

^Double MSRP first day it would be discontinued.

richo

^ Just to add clarity, I bought 2. One at £100 and one at £67 (so circa 35% off rrp and 50% off rrp). I don't mind the set (have only built one), I just think the rrp is way off, even by Star Wars standards.
If I suddenly became a reseller, and had £130 to invest, this would be way down the list, I think that's all I was saying.
I have a few curve ball suggestions for after market actually.

I like dipping in to this thread by the way, you could probably write a psychology dissertation on it. I do sometimes wonder if people get so nervous to miss the next big thing (UCS Falcon's fault that), that people seem to be buying 30 copies of everything! (ok an exaggeration I know)
Take Atlantis for example. When that was out, you could still buy copies of the last underwater theme, MISB, for under rrp, yet people were still buying loads of copies of Atlantis sets. crazy!

Anyway, I will say fair play to people who put their money on the line here. It's not as easy as some people think. Although there is talk of a bubble, I don't think there necessarily is, because at heart you have a product that at its basic is a timeless modular brick, so there is a fall back position at the worst.

Pitfall69

The question is: Is the new Millennium Falcon better than the last one? Marginally better in my opinion. If you can't afford a sealed UCS Millennium Falcon, this would be the only other option.

Pitfall69

richo said:

I think its quite considerably over priced at rrp. I could be a die hard star wars fan, but no way would I pay an after market price over £130.

You wouldn't because you already own one. If  you were new to Lego or just came out of your "Dark Ages" you would definitely spend that money.

LegoFanTexas

Pitfall69 said:

The question is: Is the new Millennium Falcon better than the last one? Marginally better in my opinion. If you can't afford a sealed UCS Millennium Falcon, this would be the only other option.

I am almost finished with building the UCS Falcon, I must say that it and the new system Falcon have almost nothing in common. If you are a display collector, the system Falcon is no substitue for the big one. If you have a display of UCS sets, the current one would look silly next to the ISD, SSD, or IS.

While it is true that if you can't afford the UCS Falcon, you can't afford it, but they are so far apart as to be different beasts.

From an investment point, this is why UCS Falcon did so well and the current Falcon will not, it is not a display set, it is a kids toy. Plus, once it retires, Lego will just do another one.

dougts

Not sure why the mmv thread, which had absolutely nothing to do with reselling or aftermarket value, got merged into this thread...

richo

@LegoFanTexas,

I can afford the UCS Falcon, many times over, I just can't justify it. There is a difference! lol.

plus, I know I am in the minority, but I do think during the next 10 year licence extension, they will do a new UCS falcon, but obviously not identical.

Rich

Legoboy

Pitfall69 said:

richo said:

I think its quite considerably over priced at rrp. I could be a die hard star wars fan, but no way would I pay an after market price over £130.

You wouldn't because you already own one. If  you were new to Lego or just came out of your "Dark Ages" you would definitely spend that money.

I wouldn't either. It's a lame set. Of course, I/we have the ability to buy just about any set we want. They are available to us at £130 and £66. £66 and still couldn't bring myself to buy it - it's that bad.

Kids aren't going to want this after EOL. They'll want the new one. The one that's currently available and 3 for 2. The only people that are gonna want this are AFOL coming out of dark ages. But then, since it's a lame set, why would they want it? He's got ten years of remakes ahead of him. I think @LFT is spot on; two in his inventory is about right.

Pitfall69

LegoFanTexas said:

Pitfall69 said:

The question is: Is the new Millennium Falcon better than the last one? Marginally better in my opinion. If you can't afford a sealed UCS Millennium Falcon, this would be the only other option.

I am almost finished with building the UCS Falcon, I must say that it and the new system Falcon have almost nothing in common. If you are a display collector, the system Falcon is no substitue for the big one. If you have a display of UCS sets, the current one would look silly next to the ISD, SSD, or IS.

While it is true that if you can't afford the UCS Falcon, you can't afford it, but they are so far apart as to be different beasts.

From an investment point, this is why UCS Falcon did so well and the current Falcon will not, it is not a display set, it is a kids toy. Plus, once it retires, Lego will just do another one.

I'm not comparing the two at all. I'm just saying that I would rather have the system MF than none at all.

I think the UCS Millennium Falcon is in a class of its own. Are all UCS sets better than their non UCS counterparts? If you use this mentality, you would suggest that you never buy another X-Wing, Y-Wing Rebel Blockade Runner etc.

LegoFanTexas

It is the same reason I didn't stock up on 6212, the last gen X-Wing, the new model is far superior. I can see a much better MF in a few years...

Pitfall69

richo said:

@LegoFanTexas,

I can afford the UCS Falcon, many times over, I just can't justify it. There is a difference! lol.

plus, I know I am in the minority, but I do think during the next 10 year licence extension, they will do a new UCS falcon, but obviously not identical.

Rich

I didn't say you couldn't afford the UCS Falcon and I totally disagree that Lego will make another one.

Many times over huh? :)

richo

^ neither of us really know for sure. It's only a hunch by me, and I could easily be wrong, but 10 years is a long time, and it is the most iconic ship/vehicle by a long long way.

monkeyhanger

richio: I know what you mean about justification. I can stomach paying £412 (final total) for my bricklinked UCS MF, and i'd realistically pay £700 for an unopened one to save me the bother, but no more than that. Stands to reason then that I was never getting an unopened one.

I really do think that the new MF will sell "well" aftermarket at up to 1.5x rrp if there is no replacement within a year. For the piece count, the RRP is inline with TLGs new pricing structure, just savvy buyers like those who frequent forums such as this know it can be had for 2/3 RRP or less if we buy at the right time. A parent buying for a kid at xmas or for birthday may not plan their purchase ahead to get the best price and will be happy to pay RRP. With that in mind, 1.5x RRP isn't a huge premium for a set with everlasting appeal when it's unavailable. Newer and better versions becoming available obviously kill interest for all but the completists.

Due to the rises seen for the UCS MF and certain modulars, there are some who think all Lego is a solid gold investment, but as always, it's best to buy at a discount and double your money quickly if you bought wisely. If you can do that on a regular basis it has to be better than tying up your money for years to get a higher return.

Legoboy

LegoFanTexas said:

It is the same reason I didn't stock up on 6212, the last gen X-Wing, the new model is far superior. I can see a much better MF in a few years...

Yep!

Pitfall69

^Just one last point about the Millennium Falcon. If the set is "lame" why are people buying it? If you don't think the new set will go up much after retirement, then why is #4504 selling for $250 and people are currently asking around $350-380? Especially since there is one currently available?

As far as the UCS Millennium Falcon is concerned. What's the reason why people aren't buying it and why people are buying it? The UCS MF is the "Holy Grail" of Star Wars Lego sets if not all Lego sets. If you don't justify paying $2,000+ for one, why didn't you buy it when it was $500 or when it was on sale. I got mine for $345 :)

Pitfall69

flump said:

LegoFanTexas said:

It is the same reason I didn't stock up on 6212, the last gen X-Wing, the new model is far superior. I can see a much better MF in a few years...

Yep!

I stocked up on #4502 when it was out and bought 3 more at Walmart for $10 a piece. I sold my last one for $190 the same month #9493 came out. What does this tell me? I made an average of $160 per sale.

lulwut

I could also afford a UCS Falcon but would never pay ebay prices when those funds can buy many more Lego sets. A lot of people missed out on the UCS Falcon because everyone who wanted one came in late. Heck, I used to work at TRU back in '06 and didn't even notice what were on the shelves in the Lego aisle.

I'm banking on them remaking a much better version of the UCS Falcon before the SW license is over, if not, I can do without it. Same with the 7676 gunship.

Pitfall69

I'm waiting to see how much a person on here sells his MISB UCS Falcon and he paid current retail for it. If he sells it for even $3-400 for what he paid for it, how can you NOT justify buying one???

I wouldn't bank on Lego making another UCS Falcon. Yes, we would all buy one, but we are such a small group of people and I don't think that Lego can justify making another one. Heck, they couldn't even sell the ones they had the first time around and heavily discounted them.

Pitfall69

I think that sometimes you guys like to tell people a set won't be worth much and not to invest much so you can be the one stocking up on the sets and making the bug money when the sets retire...LOL :)

FatMatt

^What is "bug money"?

Pitfall69

*Big

Pitfall69

Gordon Shumway, you would make a good color commentator :) More like Madden...lol.

ringleheim

I bought and built 7965, and regret it. I learned a valuable lesson as an AFOL with that set: venture into the realm of kids' Lego with extreme caution!

It is BY FAR the best "kids" Millennium Falcon set Lego has ever done. I'm not counting 10179 which does not belong in the analysis. However, it is ultimately a disappointment.

I bought it for personal use and enjoyment, but I wouldn't touch it in multiples as an investment...not when there are quite a few all-time gems still being produced which will be massively more sought after come EOL.

Pitfall69

^I agree, I'm just saying for it to not go up in value is really underestimating its potential. This is where the lines blurr between an AFOL and a young person (the target market) As adults, we don't "play" with Legos, but children do. My almost 3 year old daughter can't stop playing with the Haunted House and I have to tell you, my 6 year old nephew loves the Millennium Falcon, even though as adults we think it is "lame". How many people rushed out and bought every Star Wars Lego set when they were first released? The first MF was terrible,but we just had to have it...right???

pharmjod

I actually refused to buy the first Falcon. I purchased all the others, but it was so bad I said forget it. Never regretted that decision. I do regret not buying at least one UCS Falcon, simply b/c I had the opportunity like many on here to get it at nearly 1/2 off. Oh well.

Pitfall69

Omg. The first Falcon is so bad, but I didn't buy it. My girlfriend and future wife bought it for me. I have to say, that almost made me not want to marry her anymore...it is that bad :-)

Renny

That's a little unfair. At the time the first Falcon was great. It was big, had lots of minifigures and the interior was really cool with lots of playability. Of course it will look bad if you compare it to a model that comes out 10 years or more later. In another 10 years people will be calling this summer's sets crap...and the cycle will continue.

Pitfall69

@Renny are you the one who just bought a UCS MF to sell this Christmas?

lulwut

ringleheim said:

I bought and built 7965, and regret it. I learned a valuable lesson as an AFOL with that set: venture into the realm of kids' Lego with extreme caution!

It is BY FAR the best "kids" Millennium Falcon set Lego has ever done. I'm not counting 10179 which does not belong in the analysis. However, it is ultimately a disappointment.

I bought it for personal use and enjoyment, but I wouldn't touch it in multiples as an investment...not when there are quite a few all-time gems still being produced which will be massively more sought after come EOL.

I was also disappointed with it, even at half off. I immediately sold it for cost after building it. The gimmicky open top and odd proportions killed it for me. Nonetheless I still think this will go fairly well after EOL just because it's another SW set.

Renny

@Pitfall69, not sure I am the same person but I did buy a sealed 1st edition Falcon back in March of this year. I was going to build it but just couldn't bring myself to open it in the end. I then brick linked one which I now have displayed. I decided that I would sell my sealed copy this Christmas.

Pitfall69

Yes, you are the person. If you don't mind, I would love to know what you get for it when you sell it. If I'm not mistaken, you bought it for $1,900???

pharmjod

Renny said:

That's a little unfair. At the time the first Falcon was great.

No, seriously. I was in college when it came out. I looked at it and said garbage. I'll pass. It was that bad even when it came out. I thought the other sets were great (even if they have now been far surpassed) but that one... ugh. Not even the minifigures could sway me there.

Renny

@pharmjod, fair enough. I guess I am a little nostalgic because that was one of the first Lego sets I bought and at the time I thought it was pretty cool.

@pitfall69, yes that is the correct price. More than I wanted to pay at the time but it was a 1st edition and in perfect condition. Had to have it. I don't mind sending you a message with the sale price when I sell it.

Pitfall69

Ok. Fair enough. To be honest, I hope you get top dollar for it :)

LegoFanTexas

Pitfall69 said:

I think that sometimes you guys like to tell people a set won't be worth much and not to invest much so you can be the one stocking up on the sets and making the bug money when the sets retire...LOL :)

:) Except there are plenty of sets where I DO admit to buying a lot of... so when I say I'm "not" buying a set, you can believe it, because I say when I do buy a set.

Pitfall69

I still have the first Falcon and my wife :)

Pitfall69

LegoFanTexas said:

Pitfall69 said:

I think that sometimes you guys like to tell people a set won't be worth much and not to invest much so you can be the one stocking up on the sets and making the bug money when the sets retire...LOL :)

:) Except there are plenty of sets where I DO admit to buying a lot of... so when I say I'm "not" buying
a set, you can believe it, because I say when I do buy a set.

Of course I am making fun, but I'm sure there is a method to your madness :)

Renny

Me too :) To be honest having so much invested in one set makes me uncomfortable. I'd rather have it spread out across multiple smaller sets. That's why I am selling it this year, even if I believe it will continue to grow in value.

y2josh

I think 7965's value is going to depend largely on what LEGO does regarding the Falcon in the future. Historically, the Falcon has NOT been in the same boat as the X-Wing where a System-scale version is always available, and there was a long gap between 4504 and this new one. I think 7965 will perform very similarly to the various AT-ATs, where it spikes and then comes back down whenever the new one is announced.

Additionally, it's far and away the best System Falcon they've done, and I don't think it's nearly as awful a model as some seem to feel it is.

Pitfall69

"It's the fastest hunk of junk in the galaxy"

Diggydoes

From the MF to another "iconic" SW-craft,what ya'll think about 'Luke's Landspeeder'it don't really EOL,could it be that TLG will produce it for a while because it's a good "beginner-set"(it has both Droids plus the main heroe and a Stormie)?

Pitfall69

Word. The problem with set is the price point and because it has been out for so long.

LegoFanTexas

^ Luke's Landspeeder costs what it does because of the minifigs, not the model itself...

It is actually a reasonable way to get all the "iconic" figs in a single set, which is why they want more for it.

Or that is what I think anyway. :)

Pitfall69

I guess I meant was, yes, I thought it could be a little less, but because it is not an expensive set, it can be easily had and therefore not a good investment. It's not a bad little set, but buying it for me was an afterthought.

Legoboy

Now I remember why it was I never came here! I come waving a white flag in peace.

@Pitfall69. The answer to your question referring to the two sets you mention is a simple one; They're are both classics....to us. There is something about that era that I think many will agree on, whereby they seem to hold a 'legend' status for us, even if the set is less impressive than today's. They were from an era that had already stamped the status 'must have' on our brains before the new ones were released. These 'people' I refer to are you and me and those that came out of their dark ages in recent years. The current sets are not going to have the same impression on people now. I think there are fewer and fewer people coming out of their dark ages and so there won't be the same number of people looking for a "lame" set.

Whether @LFT says he has just 2 Falcon but really has 30 is something I can't comment on - not that I give a damn! ;-) But, like I said before, I'd be extremely anxious if I'd taken on multiples. Not unless I'd picked them up for say 50% now and was happy to release them at 80%.