Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

Bandit

^ I don't recall any mention of the horizon express as being part of Ninjago. What makes you think that?

mathew

What are people's thoughts on Queen Anne's Revenge? Any word on EOL? Black Pearl was out for a shorter time and its just about gone. Is QAR not as popular? What are its chances of reaching $200 before the end of the year?

richo

^ QAR will do very well. Beautiful ship. In fact, I thought it was the best set of 2011. In addition, its a popular franchise. Finally, it's historically interesting as it actually was Edward Teach's ship for a few years. I will be amazed if this doesn't jump on the secondary market.
I only have one, but there again I don't re-sell, so who cares.

mathew

Do you have the Imperial Flagship as well? QAR doesn't look as good in photos. I really like the sails though and I've read it's a good ship to mod. I picked up QAR on clearance and plan on building it this fall unless it's predicted to double or something before Christmas.

richo

^ I have built the Queens Anne Revenge, and also handled the Imperial Flagship. QAR is miles better. Just bags more character.

Black Pearl is a disappointment compared to both the above though, the scale felt a bit off. I guess it will also do well as its an iconic ship, but it's not a patch on QAR, not a patch...

dougts

@richo I would respectfully disagree. QAR has a better theme and color scheme. IF is signifcantly more "complete" and has a ton more features (an entire below decks for example)

to look at on a shelf, QAR is the best I would agree. For design and use, and feature set, IF is miles ahead. BP was a poor choice by LEGO. It was built to hit a price point, instead of build to what it should be.

doriansdad

mathew said:

What are people's thoughts on Queen Anne's Revenge? Any word on EOL? Black Pearl was out for a shorter time and its just about gone. Is QAR not as popular? What are its chances of reaching $200 before the end of the year?

Ships tend to do well from the classic pirates theme. POTC was a huge flop for TLG. A ship is a ship tho....they may do ok....nothing close to what the IF will do tho.

BrickDancer

Bandit said:

^ I don't recall any mention of the horizon express as being part of Ninjago. What makes you think that?

In the TMNT thread sidersdd linked to, pezdez has it listed with Ninjago details about being gold. Or perhaps there should have been a "period" between Horizon Express and the Ninjago detail? Mis-grammar can majorly change that point.

prevere

Non-ship POTC sets didn't seem to move much off the shelves (even at a discount).

Honestly, TLG didn't need to pay a licensing fee for pirate sets. They would have done well continuing their own pirates theme.

That's a lot of extra expensive for a branded Captain Jack minifig. Captain Johnny Thunder would have been fine too.

BrickDancer

^I wonder if we took a poll on PotC Licensed vs Pirates Unlicensed, which would be preferred. Higher set cost aside, I much prefer Licensed themes myself over generic. Feel like I may be in the minority on that one. Others opinion?

Pitfall69

prevere said:

Non-ship POTC sets didn't seem to move much off the shelves (even at a discount).

Honestly, TLG didn't need to pay a licensing fee for pirate sets. They would have done well continuing their own pirates theme.

That's a lot of extra expensive for a branded Captain Jack minifig. Captain Johnny Thunder would have been fine too.

Didn't Lego already have a Disney license anyway? I don't think they had to pay extra for PotC.

Pitfall69

To be honest, I love the flesh tones of licensed minifigures. I wish Lego would just do this across the board.

dougts

BrickDancer said:

Bandit said:

^ I don't recall any mention of the horizon express as being part of Ninjago. What makes you think that?

In the TMNT thread sidersdd linked to, pezdez has it listed with Ninjago details about being gold. Or perhaps there should have been a "period" between Horizon Express and the Ninjago detail? Mis-grammar can majorly change that point.

I read that to be an additional item, not part of the Ninjago lineup. His posts have been pretty consistently formatted in incomplete and run-on sentences. This isn't meant as a criticism, just as how I personally interpreted it in the overall context of his writing style.

dougts

BrickDancer said:

^I wonder if we took a poll on PotC Licensed vs Pirates Unlicensed, which would be preferred. Higher set cost aside, I much prefer Licensed themes myself over generic. Feel like I may be in the minority on that one. Others opinion?

I greatly preferred non-licensed themes. Not just for the price points (although superheroes sets are very reasonably priced), but also for the much greater design freedom LEGO has in putting together sets. They have a blank slate, where with licenses they have to fit their sets withing budget AND have it relate to specific objects/scenes in the source movie.

graphite

I like most of the ships LEGO has done but as for licensed vs non-licensed the IF is definitely amazing so if they continued down that style route they'd do well but the past pirate ships have nothing on the PotC designs IMO. The old ships have some odd colorings and things that I don't think really fit well which is why BP and QAR look so good on the shelf to me. They actually have a solid design scheme and not half green or half red hulls with random bright colors here and there. If they did more non-licensed pirate ships to go along with the IF being the "good guy" side of the conflict I think they would do well.

Pitfall69

Yeah, but back then they didn't have the color options they have now.

mathew

"Fleshies" are growing on me. I used to be a purist and only liked yellow minifigs but I think for something like the Imperial Flagship flesh tones look better. Too bad only one PotC set included imperial soldiers.

wilbur

Someone please enlighten me if this is poor or incorrect logic...

The FB is not in the most recent issue of Lego magazine, but GE is, as well as the other two modulars. Also not in the magazine is Star Wars IS, but the DS is, and also the SSD! My thinking is that lego doesn't want anyone ordering these sets off of the catalogue in Dec or something (the FB or IS) and then having to say "sorry its gone now! tough luck!"

Does anyone have any stories, or heard of a story where lego did this (pulled things from their magazine) and then kept the item on the market for another year or so?

Also, regarding investment potential in these sets, my thinking is that A) very few people do what we do. We are a microcosm of the lego market, even for the big sets. I don't think lego would make decisions on what to retire and when based on our predictions and purchasing habits, or our after market selling habits, whatever those may be.

B) there's always gonna be some 16 year old who's parents cant afford $150 for a Christmas lego, but 3 years later the kid themself might be able to pay $300 for that same set post-retirement! Someone will always want these sets, and someone will always be willing to pay double RRP eventually, even if there are a million of them out there now and we all own 20 of them! Someone somewhere isn't buying these sets, and someday they will regret it, just like I regret not buying the Millennium Falcon and the Taj mahal and everything else cause I wasn't in the market then!

Lastly C) I don't think we are in danger of losing money or investment effectiveness as long as we dont go around screaming at the top of our lungs "hey everyone! invest in lego sets, its better than the gold market and the stock market! you can double your money within 1 or 2 years! 6 months if you time it right!"

I arrived at this conclusion on my own (that is... that legos are an awesome investment). I just kind of got back into legos after about a decade and thought "holy cow these things go for alot in mint condition!" I have disposable income and i want to invest, but thanks to the economy everything else sucks! You dont buy gold when the price of gold per once is more expensive than its ever been in the history of the world, like it is right now! you buy it when its the least expensive its been in decades. Id buy a house but i dont have THAT much. But I have enough to buy a $200+ lego set every month or so! And as long as my house doesn't burn down or get broken into im not gonna lose that investment! And considering the market trends on these sets post EOL, I think this is the smartest investment decision anyone can make! Period!

Pitfall69

I think a lot people are coming to these conclusions. I rarely find any Legos at garage sales and everyone wants top dollar on Craig's list. I don't think people are as savvy as most of us are here within the "walls" of this forum. We do make up a small market compared to the overall sales of Lego.

How can your house burn down if you don't have enough disposable income to buy a house...lol.

Quick advice. Insure your Lego collection :)

wilbur

Good call! I should have clarified "if my parent's house burns down!" Don't judge me!

Pitfall69

I'm not. I didn't.:)

Pitfall69

I'm 41, I have a 3 yr old and one on the way. They'll probably still be at home until I'm 70 :-)

cloaked7

Also, selling stuff in volume on eBay is a big deal. You have to be savvy as to what to buy, when to buy it, what price to pay. Then, you have to keep the LEGOS long enough for them to double or triple in value, which means you must have the cash available to 'invest'. Then, you have to store the LEGOS somewhere. Then, you have to list your items on eBay, box them, ship them. There's a lot more to it than just getting a set at a good deal and doubling your money in 6 months. And, the profit isn't automatic. Some items you barely break even on after you account for the time value of money, storage, eBay and PayPal fees. Not counting your time. I think a person should enjoy it, because there is a lot of work involved.

LegoFanTexas

wilbur said:

And considering the market trends on these sets post EOL, I think this is the smartest investment decision anyone can make! Period!

As soon as people start saying that, it is time to get out. :)

Note to self: Buy less Lego, find something else to invest in...

Pitfall69

Reverse psychology. I like it ;)

nkx1

wilbur: Lego is a hot toy now, but there has been considerable debate in other threads about whether or not there is a bubble, particularly now that more people are in the know about investing in Lego. There are risks to any type of investment, and investing in Lego is certainly not without risk. For instance, demand could dry up via increased competition, the economy tanking, etc. Just like any sound investing strategy, it's probably best to be diversified and not have all your eggs in one basket (Lego being one tiny basket) :)

Also, with the possible exception of LFT and a very few others (if anyone), you may not be able to bet on making money on Lego on a large scale like you could investing in stock. There's only so much demand for Lego and, like stocks, some sets are winners and some are losers. For most people, investing on a small scale (a few large sets here and there) might make the most sense. That way, you stand to make a few dollars without the risk of losing a ton of money if things don't work out for whatever reason.

Lastly, especially if you're young, stocks offer exponentially more growth potential than Lego over the long term. Lego prices tend to max out and even decline, especially when you consider inflation. Stocks, on average, offer consistent growth over the very long term.

ringleheim

This point was mentioned previously, but it's worth repeating. All the Lego speculators in the world combined add up to a TINY amount of "supply" relative to when a given set is in production. Think about something like the current Millennium Falcon set. It's sitting in multiples at every Target, Toys 'R Us, and Wal Mart on the planet. Then you have Amazon, and Lego itself, and all the other chain stores I don't even know of in various countries around the world.

Compared to that amount of supply when in production, all the hoarders' sets post-EOL add up to almost nothing.

The bottom line is take any first rate Lego set you care to mention (Lego has never been better than RIGHT NOW and in the last few years)...it will cost more post EOL than it did when in production.

The only real "speculation" in this is how much your profit will be, how long it will take to get there, and which sets to buy. If you are a life-long Lego geek, passionate about the product, and know what is cool and what isn't, you'll do OK with these as an investment.

As I said earlier, I think it is important to know what a "special" Lego set looks like and invest in those. There will always be people who want that because it's special, and who did not get it for whatever reason while in production.

nkx1

^Everything you said is pretty much spot on imo. You mentioned, "The only real "speculation" in this is how much your profit will be, how long it will take to get there, and which sets to buy." Those are pretty major "speculations", and if you get them wrong, you could lose money, break even or make so little that it's a waste of time.

I "invest" in Lego just like many here, so I obviously want things to continue as they have. But I do it on a fairly small scale (in the $thousands as opposed to tens or hundreds of thousands or more), because there is an element of risk, namely the risk of marginal profits. To assume that the secondary market boom will continue as it has historically may be bit optimistic, even when taking into consideration the relatively small secondary market supply.

These are just my thoughts on the matter. I would love to be wrong, as it would benefit many people here. It just seems like there are countless examples, starting with Tulip mania in the 1600s, that point to the possibility of marginal future profits when investing in Lego.

ringleheim

nkx1 said:

^Everything you said is pretty much spot on imo. You mentioned, "The only real "speculation" in this is how much your profit will be, how long it will take to get there, and which sets to buy." Those are pretty major "speculations", and if you get them wrong, you could lose money, break even or make so little that it's a waste of time.

I "invest" in Lego just like many here, so I obviously want things to continue as they have. But I do it on a fairly small scale (in the $thousands as opposed to tens or hundreds of thousands or more), because there is an element of risk, namely the risk of marginal profits. To assume that the secondary market boom will continue as it has historically may be bit optimistic, even when taking into consideration the relatively small secondary market supply.

These are just my thoughts on the matter. I would love to be wrong, as it would benefit many people here. It just seems like there are countless examples, starting with Tulip mania in the 1600s, that point to the possibility of marginal future profits when investing in Lego.

I came out of my Dark Ages 9 months ago. In that time, I discoverd this site and its wonderful catalog of Lego sets from over the years. One of my new favorite hobbies is studying that catalog to see what I've missed since I stopped playing with Legos around 1982 or so.

Without exception, every single set I have discovered that is "special" by my definition and makes me say "oh, that's a great one; I think I need that" has gone up in value since its discontinuation. The only issue is whether it has gone up 50%, 100%, 200%, or more. And from what I can gather, the prices start escalating anywhere from immediately upon EOL to 6 months to a year. Maybe 2 at most, depending on what profit levels you are looking for.

Any modular is a special set. Buy as many FBs as you can afford, and wait for them to be discontinued. They will be selling for $200, $250, $300, and more soon enough.

LegoFanTexas

nkx1 said:

^Everything you said is pretty much spot on imo. You mentioned, "The only real "speculation" in this is how much your profit will be, how long it will take to get there, and which sets to buy." Those are pretty major "speculations", and if you get them wrong, you could lose money, break even or make so little that it's a waste of time.

*stares at hundreds of copies of Atlantis, Pharaoh's Quest, Alien Conquest, and Cars Lego sets*

Yea, no kidding... I have thousands of dollars tied up in the above four lines, and none of it is ever going to do very much. I'll be thrilled to get back my money, and that is actually losing money because there are other sets I could have bought instead and actually have made a profit.

Renny

^ Yikes. Look at the bright side, if you ever get into the parts business you'll have one heck of an inventory :)

LegoFanTexas

^ Yes, but if those sets had parts that were worth a lot of money, then the sets would be worth more. :)

One of the reasons some sets rise in price quickly and others do not is the rare parts within that are needed for something else.

Brickmaster set 20010 is a good example, it is one of the few sets with multiple copies of the light bley levers needed to bricklink UCS Falcon, so it raced in price way up, and I'm sure many of them were opened up for the levers alone.

Rainstorm26

DS gone on Amazon? Could it be EOL? Unlikely. Still in Lego's catalog. Probably restock in a few days.

BuriedinBricks

^Out of stock because it's been 10% off most of the week.

Pitfall69

Are there many sets like that? Other than an exclusive minifigures what small sets are worth more because of their rare parts than the actual "value" of the set.

nkx1

Yea, no kidding... I have thousands of dollars tied up in the above four lines, and none of it is ever going to do very much. I'll be thrilled to get back my money, and that is actually losing money because there are other sets I could have bought instead and actually have made a profit.

Yeah, that's a bummer. I also bought quite a few of the PQ sets around Christmas when they were 50% off at Walmart. Thankfully, I got cold feet and returned most of them lol. Still have a few though. I don't even think breaking even is a possibility, even they were purchased at half off!

cbaker1974

LegoFanTexas said:

*stares at hundreds of copies of Atlantis, Pharaoh's Quest, Alien Conquest, and Cars Lego sets*

Yea, no kidding... I have thousands of dollars tied up in the above four lines, and none of it is ever going to do very much. I'll be thrilled to get back my money, and that is actually losing money because there are other sets I could have bought instead and actually have made a profit.

Yes...it paid to be selective with the Wal-Mart clearance, etc. this past winter. You probably leveraged some of that loss with the nice performance of some Ninjago I'd wager though. I had a similar experience 2 years ago, bought pretty much anything that was half off at Walmart and Target...I learned the same lesson you did but with Space Police :) Except for the Space Police HQ which does pretty well.

I have been reselling for a couple of years now and have definately changed some of my strategies...being able to pick the winners takes some skill and analysis, you can't just go and buy all of the big sets, or anything that's on sale. Within themes there are also winners and losers...and the "winners that everyone knows" start to carry the danger that they become too well known.

Pitfall69

That's the problem with getting sucked in by an awesome sale. I don't sell much Lego at all, so I try to keep my purchases within my "system" boundaries. We all have our "secrets", so I'll keep mine to myself. So far it has worked out for me, but I have been tempted to go outside my line of thinking because of these types of sales. Luckily I have not strayed from the path.

Pitfall69

^As far as The "winners that everyone knows" , the key here is how much you got them for.

LegoFanTexas

Pitfall69 said:

^As far as The "winners that everyone knows" , the key here is how much you got them for.

:) Yes, there are sets that can, from time to time, be gotten for prices that are a winner, no matter how much of a "dog" the set really is.

I've picked up a few Duplo sets that aren't great sellers, but I got them for 75% off, so who cares, I make good money on them at 25% off RRP, and they sell ok at that price. Had I paid even 50% off, then they would not have been worth doing.

There are many such examples. Holiday polybags come to mind.

weaselking

Maybe I'll be pulled out back and beaten with a rubber hose for this, but I don't get the fascination with the DS set. I see many of you owning multiples of this. Dozens in a few cases, yes?

It's still relatively readily available--maybe it's my location, as the local Lego store by me has always had several on the shelf. And it is already an expensive set. It seems to me that most of the non-investors who would want one to open, assemble, fondle, whatever, would already have bought one.

I dunno. Chalk it up to me being a non-investor and trust me, I'm not being disrespectful. That said, I must ask with the utmost respect to you investors: Are you waiting for SW fans that come along after EOL and think "Hey, cool, a Death Star, I gotta have one!"?

y2josh

^For as many people as have a Death Star already, there are still going to be many who don't. On top of this, it's not a set that's likely to be duplicated anytime soon.

On top of this, "it's already an expensive set" essentially amounts to nothing where post-EOL resale value is concerned. In fact, in the case of the UCS Falcon, this actually functioned to help resale value.

On the other hand, I do think the longevity of the Death Star coupled with its strong sales will prevent it from reaching astronomically expensive levels. You should easily be able to double your money on this set within a year of EOL, though. And even if you only get 50% over RRP... that's $200.

SiE

looks like Diagon Alley has gone, a dead cert for the future!

WatfordScottyM

What do you think of QAR for future value? Surely that's due to end of line soon?

Bandit

SiE said:

looks like Diagon Alley has gone, a dead cert for the future!

Umm, no it hasn't?

nkx1

^Looks like it's still kickin' to me: http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Diagon-Alley-10217

SiE

Its gone in the uk. Rang lego and they said they had a handfull left in the warehouse and then all gone.

http://shop.lego.com/en-GB/Harry-Potter-ByTheme

SiE

Looking at the us site not much potter stuff has eol'd but its all gone in the uk.

Bandit

^ ah, interesting!

prevere

Sorry - I'm a classic yellow head guy and generic themes preferred. That's a never-ending topic elsewhere on Brickset.

Back to our topic...Thoughts on current SW sets that should EOL this fall? I love the MF - just waiting for a good discount. I remember back in the spring, it could be had for $77 and I passed on it.