Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

pmercik

What about Ninjago Character Encyclopedia? Isn't Lloyd in it as well?

kim43235

^ Wow, I was going to ask this question. Amazon accepts pre-order now at 32% off. Expected delivery date is early Nov. Is it worth getting it? Lloyd that is included looks very unique.

prevere

I'm waiting for the pink Friends' Ninja Jinx with the cool spiky black hair!

y2josh

Amazon has the Imperial Shuttle for 10% off. I know it's not the best deal that's been available, but it may be the best deal left for those who want this set for themselves. I don't know if I'd chance waiting until Black Friday on that one.

LegoFanTexas

y2josh said:

Amazon has the Imperial Shuttle for 10% off. I know it's not the best deal that's been available, but it may be the best deal left for those who want this set for themselves. I don't know if I'd chance waiting until Black Friday on that one.

Thanks for the heads up, just picked up two more of those.

Yes, it might be 20% or 25% off come Black Friday, but it might not, this is not a bad deal if it goes out this year.

That is going to be a $500 set within 6 months of retirement I believe. But not in volume, so I wouldn't buy a ton of them. I plan to keep 10 of them myself.

doriansdad

pmercik said:

What about Ninjago Character Encyclopedia? Isn't Lloyd in it as well?

Yes he is, but a slightly different version.

mobilelinkage

Do you think 5891 Apple Tree House will be retired soon?

hoyatables

^LFT -- this is the only set I've purchased one of for resale (decided to wade slowly into this particular field -- not sure I have the time or want to use the capital to do it on a larger scale). I sure hope you are right and look forward to my $250 profit in 6 months :).

LegoFanTexas

hoyatables said:

^LFT -- this is the only set I've purchased one of for resale (decided to wade slowly into this particular field -- not sure I have the time or want to use the capital to do it on a larger scale). I sure hope you are right and look forward to my $250 profit in 6 months :).

:) I do reserve the right to be wrong of course...

And there is no assurance that IS will retire this Christmas, it might well continue for another year.

But if I was a betting man, and I am, it is going this year and will do $500 by next Summer. Time will tell...

ringleheim

I'm looking at my built Imperial Shuttle right now. This thing is nearly the perfect, huge, Lego display piece. It is a joy of a kit to build, it has a lot of pieces, and it creates a great looking piece of Lego design. And it's huge.

If this doesn't go into the stratosphere come EOL, I'm not sure what would.

I have a lot of big, cool sets, and I think the Imperial Shuttle would be the absolute last thing I would disassemble into pieces for storage. It has to remain built and on display for all time! It's that good. I would not say that about any of the 4 modulars currently available (all are great), the SSD, Sopwith Camel, a handful of now discontinued Star Wars UCS sets, Tower Bridge, I can go on.....

My personal take on Lego as investment is that long term, the best Lego sets are the best investment bets. Focus on the sets that stand on their own. These are the sets which will forever appeal to AFOLs coming out of their dark ages and true Lego enthusiasts who love a great Lego set.

Ninjago is apparently a great seller, but that is all kid-driven flavor of the month stuff. None of those sets are special in my opinion and I wouldn't imagine they will have lasting resale value/staying power down the road.

I am not surprised to hear Legofantexas say Technic sets are slow sellers.

I adore the Technic kits (they are on a totally higher level than normal Lego sets in terms of complexity of build) and think they represent some of the best Lego design you will see. Yet they are seemingly not that popular.

Look at all the talk on this site regarding all sorts of themes and sets, but very little of it centers on Technic sets. They just don't reach out to a broad Lego audience for some reason.

10188 will be a good seller post EOL. The thing is huge, it seems incredibly popular, it's Star Wars, has many minifigs, and it has the greatest play factor of all time.

I've seen it built and on display at the Lego store many times. It does absolutely nothing for me as an adult--but so what. This set will always do well down the road.

The big downside is that you must invest $400 (or perhaps a slightly discounted amount) into a single unit. Then for it to double in value means someone has to pay $800 for a Lego set. At a certain price point, you are going to eliminate a lot of potential buyers when that given price simply becomes "too much for a toy". You might still be able to get it, but it will take a while and now you are sitting on Lego stock for years perhaps.

I think I'd rather have multiples of a cheaper set that will also double in value (same profit level) but with less money sunk into each unit, and without having to ask customers to pay $800 for a Lego set in order for me to make that level of profit. That should (in theory) translate into faster sales and greater convertability of your investment.

richo

Whilst I havn't ventured in to reselling, I do think too many people fall in to the trap (enticed by the UCS Falcon prices), that its only the big sets that deliver the big returns. I wouldn't be surprised if small Harry Potter sets far outperform most big sets, maybe even the UCS Shuttle.

ringleheim

LegoFanTexas said:

hoyatables said:

^LFT -- this is the only set I've purchased one of for resale (decided to wade slowly into this particular field -- not sure I have the time or want to use the capital to do it on a larger scale). I sure hope you are right and look forward to my $250 profit in 6 months :).

:) I do reserve the right to be wrong of course...

And there is no assurance that IS will retire this Christmas, it might well continue for another year.

But if I was a betting man, and I am, it is going this year and will do $500 by next Summer. Time will tell...

It would be interesting to do a historical analysis of how many UCS sets Lego will leave in production at the same time. What's the record for that? What is the greatest number of sets offered at one time, and how long did that situation last?

Jedi Starfighter is now gone so that makes a bit of room, but we now have SSD, IS, R2-D2, and shortly, the B-Wing. That makes 4 sets currently in production at the same time. I am going to guess that is a historical precedent.

Given the newness of SSD, IS, R2, and B-Wing, it is logical to conclude IS will be the first to go of the bunch, and that is probably going to happen sooner than later. This is based on the assumption that Lego does not want 4 of these big expensive sets on the market at the same time, as (I assume) they start to steal sales from each other.

And of the batch of 4 that will soon co-exist, the cheapest of the bunch is $180! With at $200, $260, and $400! I doubt Lego wants all that on the market at the same time.

FollowsClosely

The following bold where all available in 2007, but the average price point is a bit lower.

2004
#10134 - Y-wing Attack Starfighter ($120)
2005
#10143 - Death Star II ($270)
#10144 - Sandcrawler ($140)
2006
#10174 - Imperial AT-ST ($80)
#10175 - Vader's TIE Advanced ($100)
2007
#10178 - Motorised Walking AT-AT ($130)
#10179 - Ultimate Collector's Millennium Falcon ($500)
2008
#10188 - Death Star ($400)

I hope that the #10188 gets EOL soon, as It has been around too long.

Bandit

ringleheim said:

I think I'd rather have multiples of a cheaper set that will also double in value (same profit level) but with less money sunk into each unit, and without having to ask customers to pay $800 for a Lego set in order for me to make that level of profit. That should (in theory) translate into faster sales and greater convertability of your investment.

I tend to agree with you here, but that's assuming it only reaches $800. If it goes crazy and goes to $1500+, then it's worth it. We just won't know till it happens... :)

ringleheim

FollowsClosely said:

The following bold where all available in 2007, but the average price point is a bit lower.

2004
#10134 - Y-wing Attack Starfighter ($120)
2005
#10143 - Death Star II ($270)
#10144 - Sandcrawler ($140)
2006
#10174 - Imperial AT-ST ($80)
#10175 - Vader's TIE Advanced ($100)
2007
#10178 - Motorised Walking AT-AT ($130)
#10179 - Ultimate Collector's Millennium Falcon ($500)
2008
#10188 - Death Star ($400)

I hope that the #10188 gets EOL soon, as It has been around too long.

Thanks for this. So that makes 5 UCS sets available at one time.

If only I could go back to 2007 and get 10134 and 10179 at those prices!

bea

mobilelinkage said:

Do you think 5891 Apple Tree House will be retired soon?

My local Lego store told me it will be discontinued and they no longer carry it in store although you can still order from their web site.

y2josh

ringleheim said:

FollowsClosely said:

The following bold where all available in 2007, but the average price point is a bit lower.

2004
#10134 - Y-wing Attack Starfighter ($120)
2005
#10143 - Death Star II ($270)
#10144 - Sandcrawler ($140)
2006
#10174 - Imperial AT-ST ($80)
#10175 - Vader's TIE Advanced ($100)
2007
#10178 - Motorised Walking AT-AT ($130)
#10179 - Ultimate Collector's Millennium Falcon ($500)
2008
#10188 - Death Star ($400)

I hope that the #10188 gets EOL soon, as It has been around too long.

Thanks for this. So that makes 5 UCS sets available at one time.

If only I could go back to 2007 and get 10134 and 10179 at those prices!

#10021 - Imperial Star Destroyer was also available in 2007 (it was around clear into 2008, actually).

pvancil27

LegoFanTexas said:

y2josh said:

Amazon has the Imperial Shuttle for 10% off. I know it's not the best deal that's been available, but it may be the best deal left for those who want this set for themselves. I don't know if I'd chance waiting until Black Friday on that one.

Thanks for the heads up, just picked up two more of those.

Yes, it might be 20% or 25% off come Black Friday, but it might not, this is not a bad deal if it goes out this year.

That is going to be a $500 set within 6 months of retirement I believe. But not in volume, so I wouldn't buy a ton of them. I plan to keep 10 of them myself.

Complain a little, and ye shall receive =)

Bad news is 600 later and my lego budget is done for the year. Thanks for the heads up, its why I follow this thread and you evil soulless taking toys from children in the middle of the night scum of earth resellers. ;) (Still cant find the doodad store though.)

bea

madforLEGO said:

Doubtful. I think even the 10187 Beetle was out for 2 years.. I think it will be around for some time, but if you want it go for it now so you do not have to ask this question in 6 months :-)
The HH on the other hand... who knows how long that will be around if it is part of Monster hunters

According to brickset, the Beetle was only out for about 1.5 years (Jun 08 - Dec 09) and the camper came out in Sep 11. I do hope it lasts another year.

sidersdd

^

pvancil27 said:

LegoFanTexas said:

y2josh said:

Amazon has the Imperial Shuttle for 10% off. I know it's not the best deal that's been available, but it may be the best deal left for those who want this set for themselves. I don't know if I'd chance waiting until Black Friday on that one.

Thanks for the heads up, just picked up two more of those.

Yes, it might be 20% or 25% off come Black Friday, but it might not, this is not a bad deal if it goes out this year.

That is going to be a $500 set within 6 months of retirement I believe. But not in volume, so I wouldn't buy a ton of them. I plan to keep 10 of them myself.

Complain a little, and ye shall receive =)

Bad news is 600 later and my lego budget is done for the year. Thanks for the heads up, its why I follow this thread and you evil soulless taking toys from children in the middle of the night scum of earth resellers. ;) (Still cant find the doodad store though.)

Done for the year?! The best sales are yet to come. Surely you saved a little for the TRU B2G1 coming this weekend? :)

cloaked7

I have the opportunity to get a few of the Ninjago Destiny's Bounty 9446 for 30% off RRP. Should I get them?

LegoFanTexas

cloaked7 said:

I have the opportunity to get a few of the Ninjago Destiny's Bounty 9446 for 30% off RRP. Should I get them?

:). No, tell me where and I'll buy them. :)

Yes, I would buy those for resale...

pvancil27

sidersdd said:

^

pvancil27 said:

LegoFanTexas said:

y2josh said:

Amazon has the Imperial Shuttle for 10% off. I know it's not the best deal that's been available, but it may be the best deal left for those who want this set for themselves. I don't know if I'd chance waiting until Black Friday on that one.

Thanks for the heads up, just picked up two more of those.

Yes, it might be 20% or 25% off come Black Friday, but it might not, this is not a bad deal if it goes out this year.

That is going to be a $500 set within 6 months of retirement I believe. But not in volume, so I wouldn't buy a ton of them. I plan to keep 10 of them myself.

Complain a little, and ye shall receive =)

Bad news is 600 later and my lego budget is done for the year. Thanks for the heads up, its why I follow this thread and you evil soulless taking toys from children in the middle of the night scum of earth resellers. ;) (Still cant find the doodad store though.)

Done for the year?! The best sales are yet to come. Surely you saved a little for the TRU B2G1 coming this weekend? :)

Sadly no, but the DS and IS were the last two big ones that I needed that were in danger of going away. Only two Early 2012 sets I still need are an X Wing and the Target exclusive Anakins fighter. If push comes to shove I can probably get the money to snag them, if not I'll just wait till i get more funds the first part of the year..

Such is the life of a broke ass old college student.

Pitfall69

Done for the year?! The best sales are yet to come. Surely you saved a little for the TRU B2G1 coming this weekend? :)




There is??? How do you know?

sidersdd

^ Just a hunch. That goofy giraffe always has his birthday sale around this time each year, and there's been a LEGO B2G1 on it for the past 3 or 4 years.

sidersdd

prevere said:

That came out just recently (chess set). I can't imagine they'd discontinue already, would they? Before Xmas?

There were a few of the Kingdoms Chess sets left at the Indianapolis LEGO store when I stopped in tonight. Apparently the store only ever received one shipment of these, there's just a few left, and they have no current plans to order more. Dunno if that means much, but I picked up a couple while I was there.

gmpirate

^ Stores do not have total control over what they receive or when.

berniebond

10197 FB and 8043 Mobile Excavator to go EOL soon (so we think)!

What do you all, and LFT, think about their aftermarket performance. Is it gonna be similar? In which to invest more?

B.

CCC

ringleheim said:

I think I'd rather have multiples of a cheaper set that will also double in value (same profit level) but with less money sunk into each unit, and without having to ask customers to pay $800 for a Lego set in order for me to make that level of profit. That should (in theory) translate into faster sales and greater convertability of your investment.

How far do you take that down? All the way to small sets like Star Wars battle packs and Gandalf Arrives in LOTR? Those are a lot of work to shift to get the same profit level, even if they went up 300% compared to a larger set going up 200%.

Faster but small sales which slowly increase your profit, or one or two big sales which give you all the profit in one go.

stoneboi

10188 never seems to die off. believe to be on sale now at 369 at amazon..

Pitfall69

CCC said:

ringleheim said:

I think I'd rather have multiples of a cheaper set that will also double in value (same profit level) but with less money sunk into each unit, and without having to ask customers to pay $800 for a Lego set in order for me to make that level of profit. That should (in theory) translate into faster sales and greater convertability of your investment.

How far do you take that down? All the way to small sets like Star Wars battle packs and Gandalf Arrives in LOTR? Those are a lot of work to shift to get the same profit level, even if they went up 300% compared to a larger set going up 200%.

Faster but small sales which slowly increase your profit, or one or two big sales which give you all the profit in one go.

This has been discussed before. I personally would rather have a few larger sets than many smaller sets. A lot less work. It all depends how much your time is worth. I feel that most people can afford the smaller to medium priced sets, but may not grab a large set because if finances.

JT32

berniebond said:

10197 FB and 8043 Mobile Excavator to go EOL soon (so we think)!

What do you all, and LFT, think about their aftermarket performance. Is it gonna be similar? In which to invest more?

B.

I think they will both be slow burners. IMO there is no chance the FB is going to go the way of CC, GG or even the MH. I predict a 50% rise in 12 months, which is still a great return on my investment but I won't be getting my hopes up.

8043 will hopefully be the same, I'd be very happy with a 50% return in 12-18 months.

FollowsClosely

#10197 is a great set, many say it is the best modular. However, it has been around a long time. It also was on sale often. I got my 12 via a TRU B2G1, so I paid $106 each. It will rise slowly I think.

#8043 is a great set, but just like #10197 it was on sale often. I would also be happy with 50% after 18 months.

cloaked7

^ Yup, obviously what price you can get sets for makes a different in how profitable they are to an individual. Generally, you can get non-SW sets at a better discount, because SW is often excluded from the sale. So, when the non-SW sets are EOL'd they don't have to go up in price as much in order to make a nice profit. Getting an item at 25-30% off RRP makes a huge difference a lot of the time.

doriansdad

berniebond said:

10197 FB and 8043 Mobile Excavator to go EOL soon (so we think)!

What do you all, and LFT, think about their aftermarket performance. Is it gonna be similar? In which to invest more?

B.

Easy $100 on 10197....have no idea on the technic stuff....not my game.

leemcg

This is a dangerous thread. Up until now, I've either bought (1 of) sets that I want (even if I haven't opened them straight away), or multiple of useful kid stuff (minifigs and £10-£15 birthday present sets). I've never sold any Lego on ebay.

But I've decided to get a bunch of Fire Brigades.

My logic goes like this...

In the UK, Fire Brigade hasn't really been for sale elsewhere - or rather it has but never less than RRP (i.e. Amazon.co.uk cheapest price is £131). So it's not really been widely available at a discount here except through 10-15% off on BF or AFOL days (and they are for personal use).

It's also an pricing outlier in the UK, where it's price point must have been set a long time ago. In the US all modulars from Green Grocer to Grand Emporium were/are $150. Here Fire Brigade is £99, Petshop £120 and Grand Emporium £133. It strikes me that if Fire Brigade were being released today it would be priced around £140.

It's also a Fire Station, and as much as it's not a favourite of everyone here, it's clearly still an always popular type of LEGO model.

It was also my first modular and I love it.


It's also an excellent parts pack, and good value, I think, for parts up to about £150.


So that's my decision made. All I need to do now is run it past the wife and decide when is best to order! Oh, and wait to see if anyone here disagrees with my logic.

Lee

FollowsClosely

leemcg said:

... Oh, and wait to see if anyone here disagrees with my logic.

Lee

There is no safer place right now to invest. Just be prepared to hold on to it for a couple of years as you never know what LEGO will do with this set. I would not be surprised to see it stick around another year outliving the GE. Or it could be gone next month.

DaddyDeuce

^leemcg

I'm not disagreeing with you, but let me give you the counter-argument on FB before you go all in.

FB came out in Sep 2009. It has currently been on the market for 3 years with no guarantee of going OOP (even though it appears likely to me). It has been on the market during a period where the potential gains of the previous modular buildings are well known. The previous modular buildings were on the market for closer to 2 years each.

It is possible that FB has been "overbought" by speculators and therefore it might not rise as quickly as previous modular buildings.

I personally think it is a good purchase, but I wouldn't put all my eggs in one basket, particularly not this basket.

I do think that if and when LEGO releases a modular police station, the value of FB will go up considerably as people will want a matching set.

prevere

I still can't believe FB is still available. Yesterday was its 3-year anniversary launch date.

dougts

Even if FB doesn't rise rapidly in value, it's hard to see a scenario where it loses anyone money. Once it's gone, it's not going to sell for much less than RRP, and most likely even those trying to dump it early are going to get RRP plus enough to cover fees.

at worst, it's a wash with the potential to be a net gain.

JT32

^ I just have a gut feeling that GE will easily outstrip the FB when it comes to re-sale and here are my thoughts to why.

My gut feeling tells me that GE won't be around as long as FB and that will help tons. Secondly I think more re-sellers are stocking FB over GE as they think it will be EOL for a long time before. If this isn't the case then a lot of resellers will have a lot of money held up in FB's which they won't see before GE goes EOL. Therefore GE will be a lot rarer in the aftermarket.

Just my 2c's and obviously I've stocked up on both, fingers crossed they both do well :)

BTW GE keeps getting reduced on Amazon.es and .it and going out of stock. Not sure if that's a sign stock is running low or not?

doriansdad

Just remember this time last year when every man and his dog where stocking up on 10194 during TRU's plentiful B1G1 sales and we had warnings that this set would never perform due to massive hoarding......it doubled in price the day it went EOL. In short resellers will not ever be able to buy enough stock to outstrip demand for a popular EOL set.

brickupdate

@doriansdad, I remember it taking a bit longer than a day when it went EOL, but that is a point well taken. For everyone (me!) who has an extra few MMV or IF in the closet, there are thousands of people who may want the set.

madforLEGO

doriansdad said:

Just remember this time last year when every man and his dog where stocking up on 10194 during TRU's plentiful B1G1 sales and we had warnings that this set would never perform due to massive hoarding......it doubled in price the day it went EOL. In short resellers will not ever be able to buy enough stock to outstrip demand for a popular EOL set.

Agreed... Same with IF.. IF kinda surprised me to be honest.. not in knowing that they would be worth having extras, but how fast it climbed considering it was just available..
Now while the dearth of re-sellers may slow the rapid increase in prices the simple fact is if it is gone, and interesting enough to buy, and not going to have a similar set in production soon, that it will go up..
Take EN for example: Since EN shows no sign of coming back OR such a locomotive being made by LEGO for the foreseeable future I'm guessing it will only go up, regardless of the numbers out there, albeit at a slower pace (as it doubled then promptly dipped for Spring/Summer with tons of people trying to sell it still). This Christmas/ Winter will be the true litmus test IMO as it will be a full year since it went away and this I think is really the first year where everyone and their sister seems to think that they will make millions on LEGO sets.

I'm guessing EN will hit about a solid 250.. maybe 300 but that is a big maybe IMO as 300 for a loco.. not sure it will get that high anytime soon.

I still see the GG going up to about mid 600's (if not 700 USD) after Christmas.

BrickDancer

^i had the impression locos do well long term and consistently. Sante Fe does very well considering its just the engine, when you add costs for the cabins to go with it, the price is much higher than $300. So maybe not this Xmas, but I see EN easily breaking that mark.

doriansdad

madforLEGO said:

Take EN for example: Since EN shows no sign of coming back OR such a locomotive being made by LEGO for the foreseeable future

A new one is coming out in 2013...Horizon Express....probably going to be another classicly designed train....but this will only drive up demand for 10194 as they will look very nice together.

CupIsHalfEmpty

I've never heard of Horizon Express. A quick search didn't give any results. Do you have any other info on it?

sidersdd

^ First I had heard of it was in this thread:
http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/comment/111350/#Comment_111350

prevere

Xmas is always the same. Lots of buyers. And frantic ones towards the middle of Dec. But the real factor is how many retired sets will be offered for sale? With EN, IF, WTS, and other recent "quality" EOL'd sets - I think the market will be somewhat saturated with options (used sets and new sets).

BrickDancer

Isn't Horizon Express for Ninjago theme? If so, I'd expect something along the lines of Hogwarts Express. Which doesn't fit the EN & Maersk style.